Author: CensorBiz

The average U.S. price of regular-grade gasoline plunged 19 cents over the past two weeks to $4.86 per gallon.

Industry analyst Trilby Lundberg of the Lundberg Survey said Sunday that the continued decline comes as crude oil costs also fall.

“Assuming oil prices do not shoot up from here, motorists may see prices drop another 10-20 cents as the oil price cuts continue making their way to street level,” Lundberg said in a statement.

The average price at the pump is down 24 cents over the past month, but it is $1.66 higher than it was one year ago.

Nationwide, the highest average price for regular-grade gas was in the San Francisco Bay Area at $6.14 per gallon. The lowest average was in the city of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, at $4.19 per gallon.

According to the survey, the average price of diesel dropped 13 cents since June 24 to $5.76 a gallon.
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Sri Lanka’s prime minister said late last month that the island nation’s debt-laden economy had “collapsed” as it runs out of money to pay for food and fuel. Short of cash to pay for imports of such necessities and already defaulting on its debt, it is seeking help from neighboring India and China and from the International Monetary Fund.

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took office in May, was emphasizing the monumental task he faced in turning around an economy he said was heading for “rock bottom.” On Saturday both he and President Gotabaya Rajapaksa agreed to resign amid mounting pressure from protesters who stormed both their residences and set fire to one of them.

Sri Lankans are skipping meals as they endure shortages and lining up for hours to try to buy scarce fuel. It’s a harsh reality for a country whose economy had been growing quickly, with a growing and comfortable middle class, until the latest crisis deepened.

How serious is this crisis?

The government owes $51 billion and is unable to make interest payments on its loans, let alone put a dent in the amount borrowed. Tourism, an important engine of economic growth, has sputtered because of the pandemic and concerns about safety after terror attacks in 2019. And its currency has collapsed by 80%, making imports more expensive and worsening inflation that is already out of control, with food costs rising 57%, according to official data.

The result is a country hurtling towards bankruptcy, with hardly any money to import gasoline, milk, cooking gas and toilet paper.

Political corruption is also a problem; not only did it play a role in the country squandering its wealth, but it also complicates any financial rescue for Sri Lanka.

Anit Mukherjee, a policy fellow and economist at the Center for Global Development in Washington, said any assistance from the IMF or World Bank should come with strict conditions to make sure the aid isn’t mismanaged.

Still, Mukherjee noted that Sri Lanka sits in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, so letting a country of such strategic significance collapse is not an option.

How is it affecting real people?

Tropical Sri Lanka normally is not lacking for food, but people are going hungry. The U.N. World Food Program says nearly nine in 10 families are skipping meals or otherwise skimping to stretch out their food, while 3 million are receiving emergency humanitarian aid.

Doctors have resorted to social media to try to get critical supplies of equipment and medicine. Growing numbers of Sri Lankans are seeking passports to go overseas in search of work. Government workers have been given an extra day off for three months to allow them time to grow their own food.

In short, people are suffering and desperate for things to improve.

Why is the economy in such dire straits?

Economists say the crisis stems from domestic factors such as years of mismanagement and corruption.

Much of the public’s ire has focused on President Rajapaksa and his brother, former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. The latter resigned in May after weeks of anti-government protests that eventually turned violent.

Conditions have been deteriorating for the past several years. In 2019, Easter suicide bombings at churches and hotels killed more than 260 people. That devastated tourism, a key source of foreign exchange.

The government needed to boost its revenues as foreign debt for big infrastructure projects soared, but instead Rajapaksa pushed through the largest tax cuts in Sri Lankan history. The tax cuts were recently reversed, but only after creditors downgraded Sri Lanka’s ratings, blocking it from borrowing more money as its foreign reserves sank. Then tourism flatlined again during the pandemic.

In April 2021, Rajapaksa suddenly banned imports of chemical fertilizers. The push for organic farming caught farmers by surprise and decimated staple rice crops, driving prices higher. To save on foreign exchange, imports of other items deemed to be luxuries were also banned. Meanwhile, the Ukraine war has pushed prices of food and oil higher. Inflation was near 40% and food prices were up nearly 60% in May.

Why did the prime minister say the economy has collapsed?

The stark declaration in June by Wickremesinghe, who is in his sixth term as prime minister, threatened to undermine any confidence in the state of the economy and didn’t reflect any specific new development. The prime minister appeared to be underscoring the challenges facing his government as it seeks help from the IMF and confronts criticism over the lack of improvement since he took office weeks earlier. The comment might have been intended to try to buy more time and support as he tries to get the economy back on track.

The Finance Ministry said Sri Lanka had only $25 million in usable foreign reserves. That has left it without the wherewithal to pay for imports, let alone repay billions in debt.

Meanwhile the Sri Lankan rupee has weakened in value to about 360 to the U.S. dollar.

That makes the costs of imports even more prohibitive. Sri Lanka has suspended repayment of about $7 billion in foreign loans due this year out of $25 billion to be repaid by 2026.

What is the government doing about the crisis?

So far Sri Lanka has been muddling through, mainly supported by $4 billion in credit lines from India. An Indian delegation came to the capital, Colombo, in June for talks on more assistance, but Wickremesinghe warned against expecting India to keep Sri Lanka afloat for long.

“Sri Lanka pins last hopes on IMF,” read a June headline in the Colombo Times. The government is in negotiations with the IMF on a bailout plan, and Wickremesinghe has said he expected to have a preliminary agreement later this summer.

Sri Lanka has also sought more help from China. Other governments like the U.S., Japan and Australia have provided a few hundred million dollars in support.

Earlier in June, the United Nations launched a worldwide public appeal for assistance. So far, projected funding barely scratches the surface of the $6 billion the country needs to stay afloat over the next six months.

To counter Sri Lanka’s fuel shortage, Wickremesinghe told The Associated Press in a recent interview that he would consider buying more steeply discounted oil from Russia.
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While inflation remains high and economic forecasters are warning of a possible recession, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday reported job growth in the United States remains strong, with the economy adding 372,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate remaining at 3.6% for the fourth month in a row.

In its report, the bureau said the job numbers are comparable to where they were in February 2020, just before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. The report shows the most notable job growth in June occurred in the professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care sectors.

“Today, we learned that our private sector has recovered all of the jobs lost during the pandemic and added jobs on top of that. This has been the fastest and strongest jobs recovery in American history,” President Joe Biden said in a statement.

The bureau reports manufacturing employment increased by 29,000 in June and has returned to its February 2020 level.

“The historic strength of our job market is one reason our economy is uniquely well positioned to tackle a range of global economic challenges – from global inflation to the economic fallout from Putin’s war,” said Biden. “No country is better positioned than America to bring down inflation, without giving up all of the economic gains we have made over the last 18 months.”

The continued strong job growth may ease fears of a recession. Analysts say the U.S. Federal Reserve may see it as an inflation indicator and prompt another rise in interest rates. Last month, the central bank raised interest rates by three-quarters of 1% in the hope of bringing down the highest inflation rate seen in nearly 40 years.

There is fear that further interest rate hikes – designed to bring down prices by cooling demand – could spark a recession.  

The Washington Post reports economists and policymakers are hoping U.S. jobs growth — which has been hovering around 400,000 new positions per month for much of the past year — will slow to a sustainable pace that could help moderate inflation, without a significant rise in unemployment.

Some information for this report was provided by the Associated Press and Reuters. 
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A U.N. study released Thursday shows the first three months of the war in Ukraine has driven up the global cost of fuel and food, creating record inflation that has helped drive 71 million people into poverty.

Speaking during a virtual news conference in Geneva, U.N. Development Program Administrator Achim Steiner said the analysis of 159 developing countries indicated that price spikes in key commodities were already having “immediate and devastating impacts on the world’s poorest households.”

The study shows that the economic shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine came after 18 months of COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, which had a slower but cumulative and strong negative impact on world economies. He said the pandemic had already pushed about 125 million people into poverty.

At the same news conference, UNDP Senior Economist George Gray Molina said as a result many countries have faced 36 months of “shock after shock after shock.”

Molina said the impact of the war has been “drastically faster,” affecting global food and energy supplies and sparking the inflationary surge.

Steiner said failure by governments to take decisive and “radical” action risks sparking widespread unrest, as the patience and ability of people to cope with the situation runs out.

He pointed to the situation in Sri Lanka, where the government is in turmoil and the nation is facing food and fuel shortages and has defaulted on its national debt for the first time in its history.

The development program study offers some financial policy recommendations to address the crisis. Steiner suggested, for example, that it might be possible for some countries to tackle runaway inflation without resorting to the “blunt instrument” of raising interest rates.

He said multilateral investment institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could provide more capital to allow nations to address the crisis through targeted lending and other crisis-response measures.

Some information for this report was provided by the Associated Press and Reuters.
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The head of the FBI and the leader of Britain’s domestic intelligence agency raised fresh alarms Wednesday about the Chinese government, warning business leaders that Beijing is determined to steal their technology for competitive gain.

FBI Director Christopher Wray reaffirmed longstanding concerns in denouncing economic espionage and hacking operations by China, as well as the Chinese government’s efforts to stifle dissent abroad. But his speech was notable because it took place at MI5’s London headquarters and alongside the agency’s director general, Ken McCallum, in an intended show of Western solidarity.

The remarks also showed the extent to which Wray and the FBI regard the Chinese government as not only a law enforcement and intelligence challenge but are also attuned to the implications of Beijing’s foreign policy actions.

“We consistently see that it’s the Chinese government that poses the biggest long-term threat to our economic and national security, and by ‘our,’ I mean both of our nations, along with our allies in Europe and elsewhere,” Wray said.

McCallum said the Chinese government and its “covert pressure across the globe” amounts to “the most game-changing challenge we face.”

“This might feel abstract, but it’s real and it’s pressing,” he said. “We need to talk about it. We need to act.”

A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, rejected the allegations from the Western leaders, saying in an emailed statement to The Associated Press that China “firmly opposes and combats all forms of cyber attacks” and called the accusations groundless.

“We will never encourage, support or condone cyber attacks,” the statement said.

In a nod to current tensions between China and Taiwan, Wray also said during his speech that any forcible takeover of Taipei by Beijing would “would represent one of the most horrific business disruptions the world has ever seen.”

Last week, the U.S. government’s director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, said at an event in Washington that there were no indications Chinese President Xi Jinping was poised to take Taiwan by military force. But she that did say Xi appeared to be “pursuing the potential” for such an action as part of a broader Chinese government goal of reunification of Taiwan.

After the appearance with his British counterpart, Wray said he would leave to others the question of whether an invasion of Taiwan was more or less likely after Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine. But he said, “I don’t have any reason to think their interest in Taiwan has abated in any fashion,” and added that he hoped China had learned what happens “when you overplay your hand,” as he said the Russians have done in Ukraine.

The FBI director said there are signs the Chinese, perhaps drawing lessons from Russia’s experience since the war, have looked for ways to “insulate their economy” against potential sanctions.

“In our world, we call that behavior a clue,” said Wray, who throughout his speech urged caution from Western companies looking to do business in or with China. He said Western investments in China could collapse in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.

“Just as in Russia, Western investments built over years could become hostages, capital stranded (and) supply chains and relationships disrupted,” he said.

President Joe Biden said in May that the U.S. would respond militarily if China invaded Taiwan, offering one of the most forceful White House statements in support of Taiwan’s self-governing in decades. The White House later tried to soften the impact of the statement, saying Biden was not outlining a change in U.S. policy toward Taiwan, a self-governing island that China views as a breakaway province that should be reunified with the mainland.

The embassy spokesman said the Taiwan issue was “purely China’s internal affair” and said when it comes to questions of China’s territory and sovereignty, the country has “no room for compromise or concession.”

“We will strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with utmost sincerity and efforts,” the statement said, though it noted that China will “reserve the option of taking all necessary measures in response to the interference of foreign forces.”
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 The head of the FBI and the leader of Britain’s domestic intelligence agency raised fresh alarms Wednesday about the Chinese government, warning business leaders that Beijing is determined to steal their technology for competitive gain. 

FBI Director Christopher Wray reaffirmed longstanding concerns in denouncing economic espionage and hacking operations by China, as well as the Chinese government’s efforts to stifle dissent abroad. But his speech was notable because it took place at MI5’s London headquarters and alongside the agency’s director general, Ken McCallum, in an intended show of Western solidarity. 

The remarks also showed the extent to which Wray and the FBI regard the Chinese government as not only a law enforcement and intelligence challenge but are also attuned to the implications of Beijing’s foreign policy actions. 

“We consistently see that it’s the Chinese government that poses the biggest long-term threat to our economic and national security, and by ‘our,’ I mean both of our nations, along with our allies in Europe and elsewhere,” Wray said. 

McCallum said the Chinese government and its “covert pressure across the globe” amounts to “the most game-changing challenge we face.” 

“This might feel abstract, but it’s real and it’s pressing,” he said. “We need to talk about it. We need to act.” 

A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, rejected the allegations from the Western leaders, saying in an emailed statement to The Associated Press that China “firmly opposes and combats all forms of cyber attacks” and called the accusations groundless. 

“We will never encourage, support or condone cyber attacks,” the statement said. 

In a nod to current tensions between China and Taiwan, Wray also said during his speech that any forcible takeover of Taipei by Beijing would “would represent one of the most horrific business disruptions the world has ever seen.” 

Last week, the U.S. government’s director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, said at an event in Washington that there were no indications Chinese President Xi Jinping was poised to take Taiwan by military force. But she that did say Xi appeared to be “pursuing the potential” for such an action as part of a broader Chinese government goal of reunification of Taiwan. 

After the appearance with his British counterpart, Wray said he would leave to others the question of whether an invasion of Taiwan was more or less likely after Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine. But he said, “I don’t have any reason to think their interest in Taiwan has abated in any fashion,” and added that he hoped China had learned what happens “when you overplay your hand,” as he said the Russians have done in Ukraine. 

The FBI director said there are signs the Chinese, perhaps drawing lessons from Russia’s experience since the war, have looked for ways to “insulate their economy” against potential sanctions. 

“In our world, we call that behavior a clue,” said Wray, who throughout his speech urged caution from Western companies looking to do business in or with China. He said Western investments in China could collapse in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. 

“Just as in Russia, Western investments built over years could become hostages, capital stranded (and) supply chains and relationships disrupted,” he said. 

President Joe Biden said in May that the U.S. would respond militarily if China invaded Taiwan, offering one of the most forceful White House statements in support of Taiwan’s self-governing in decades. The White House later tried to soften the impact of the statement, saying Biden was not outlining a change in U.S. policy toward Taiwan, a self-governing island that China views as a breakaway province that should be reunified with the mainland. 

The embassy spokesman said the Taiwan issue was “purely China’s internal affair” and said when it comes to questions of China’s territory and sovereignty, the country has “no room for compromise or concession.” 

“We will strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with utmost sincerity and efforts,” the statement said, though it noted that China will “reserve the option of taking all necessary measures in response to the interference of foreign forces.”
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Dockworkers and shipping companies on the U.S. West Coast say operations will continue normally as they negotiate following Friday’s expiration of a contract between the two sides. 

A joint letter released by the Pacific Maritime Association and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union said, “cargo will keep moving, and normal operations will continue at the ports until an agreement can be reached.” 

The negotiations involve 29 ports in California, Oregon and Washington that together handle nearly 40% of all U.S. imports. 

The talks have been closely followed, including by the White House with President Joe Biden speaking with both sides. 

More than 150 business groups also urged Biden to push for a quick resolution to avoid any further disruptions on top of existing supply chain challenges. 

One major issue in the talks is the level of automation used at ports, with operators arguing more automation brings more jobs by processing more cargo and dock workers saying automation would reduce the number of workers needed. 

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press and Reuters.
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The United Nations is warning that Lebanon is in a state of crisis, with millions of people out of work, and suffering from shortages of food, medicine, fuel, and other essential needs.

The United Nations says soaring food prices are forcing 90% of Lebanese families to consume less expensive food, skimp on meals, and reduce portion sizes.   It warns spiking crude oil prices threaten to tip thousands of families over the edge, worsening food insecurity, malnutrition, and hunger.

A recent survey finds almost a third of Lebanon’s labor force is unemployed, with youth unemployment at nearly 50%.  U.N. resident coordinator for Lebanon Najat Rochdi said 2.2 million Lebanese, 86,000 migrants, and 200,000 Palestine refugees need emergency aid, an increase of 46% over last year.

She said the outlook for the country’s financial stability is not good.  She notes the World Bank projects Lebanon’s gross domestic product will contract by a further 6.5% this year, with inflation expected to reach devastating new heights.

“The socioeconomic meltdown in Lebanon has been further exacerbated by the impact of course of the Ukrainian crisis on the country, which is mainly reflected in the depletion of wheat reserves and the soaring prices of fuel items that are leading to drastic increases in bread prices and threatening food security in Lebanon,” she said.

Rochdi said the health sector in Lebanon is on the verge of collapse at a time when needs are increasing significantly.  She said hospitals are suffering from an acute shortage of medical supplies and power shortages, affecting patients’ care and lives.

She said nearly 4 million people are at immediate risk of being denied access to safe water because of severe electricity shortages in Lebanon.  She said these crises are affecting everyone across the country, with women bearing the brunt of this multifaceted disaster.

“Alarmingly, gender-based violence and sexual exploitation and abuse are on the rise.  We have received widespread reports of women and children feeling unsafe in public spaces such as streets, markets, or when using public transport … The crisis is also having a dramatic impact on children’s living conditions,” she said.

Rochdi said young people see no future for themselves and are leaving Lebanon in droves.  She warns this brain drain is depriving the country of the brightest, skilled people needed to boost its economy and development.
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Sri Lanka is struggling to raise $587 million to pay for about half a dozen fuel shipments, a top minister said Sunday as the cash-strapped country tries to cope with its worst financial crisis in decades.

The country of 22 million people is unable to pay for essential imports of food items, fertilizer, medicines and fuel — due to a severe dollar crunch.

Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera said new fuel shipments were being lined up, but the country is struggling to raise enough funds to pay as the central bank can supply only about $125 million.

Sri Lanka only has 12,774 tons of diesel and 4,061 tons of petrol left in its government reserves, he told reporters in Colombo, the commercial center of the island nation.

“This week we will need $316 million to pay for new shipments. If we add two crude oil shipments this amount shoots up to $587 million,” Wijesekera said.

The first shipment of 40,000 tons of diesel from Coral Energy is expected to arrive around July 9 and partial payment of $49 million must be made for a second one from Vitol by Thursday.

Faced with severely limited diesel and petrol stocks Sri Lanka last week closed schools, asked public employees to work from home and restricted government fuel supplies to essential services.

The minister said the country will have to attempt to raise funds from the open market and seek more flexible payment options from suppliers.

Plans to settle the $800 million owed to seven suppliers for purchases made this year were being discussed, he said.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) officials will continue to hold talks with Sri Lanka for a possible $3 billion bailout package, the global lender said last week after wrapping up a 10-day visit to Colombo.

However, the immediate release of funds from the IMF is unlikely because the country has first to get its debt on to a sustainable path.  
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A rural town in central Texas is home to the largest bitcoin mining facility in North America, bringing jobs and welcomed vitality into the community. But critics warn the operations are part of a volatile new industry. Deana Mitchell has the story.
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In male-dominated Egypt, the workforce participation rate among women and girls ages 15 and older is an estimated 15%, falling below the Middle East-North Africa region’s average of 19%, according to the International Labor Organization. For VOA, photojournalist Hamada Elrasam traces a thread that binds the everyday struggles of mothers and young female professionals across Cairo: dreams of agency amid far-reaching, often gender-based barriers to participation. Words by Elle Kurancid.
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The African Continental Free Trade Area has been operating for more than a year with the aim of cutting red tape to expand inter-African trade and lift millions of people out of poverty. But the largest trade pact in the world, in terms of member countries, has seen slow progress and mixed results. Anne Nzouankeu reports from Abidjan, Ivory Coast, in this report narrated by Moki Edwin Kindzeka.
Videographer: Anne Nzouankeu
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This week, the Group of Seven leaders launched a $600 billion global infrastructure initiative they say will compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. VOA White House correspondent Anita Powell reports from Telfs, Austria, with reporting from Patsy Widakuswara in Washington.
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Sri Lanka has run out of fuel, according to a report Monday in the country’s Daily Mirror newspaper. 

The 1,100 tons of petrol and 7,500 tons of diesel the country has would not last a day, the newspaper reported, citing anonymous sources in the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation Trade Union.

According to Reuters, which cited a top government official on Sunday, the country of 22 million people is down to just 15,000 tons of petrol and diesel to keep essential services running in  coming days. 

Without any deliveries of fuel, the newspaper said, Sri Lanka “will come to a complete standstill from this week, as even public transportation will come to a grinding halt.” 

The country’s energy crisis is compounded by a financial crisis. 

The Daily Mirror said Sri Lanka has been “blacklisted by international companies as it has defaulted on its debts and companies now require international bank guarantees for fresh orders.” 

However, Sri Lanka is sending two ministers to Russia, according to The Associated Press, for face-to-face negotiations to try to acquire the much-needed fuel. 

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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U.S. President Joe Biden comes to the Group of Seven summit with the war in Ukraine showing no signs of stopping and China’s ambition spreading. The White House says they are committed to countering these issues. VOA White House correspondent Anita Powell reports from Telfs, Austria.
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Air traffic is booming this summer, but after European vacations are over will passenger demand hold up?

The question was the focus of the annual congress of the Airports Council International (ACI) Europe in Rome this week, held at the cusp of the approaching peak season.

The summer period is shaping up to be by far the best since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis that has severely affected the airline industry since 2020.

Some airlines, such as Ryanair, and countries, in particular Greece, have already recovered or even exceeded their 2019 daily flight numbers, according to Eurocontrol, a pan-European air traffic agency.

Across the continent, air traffic was last week at 86 percent of the same period in 2019, Eurocontrol said, and expected to reach up to 95 percent in August under its most optimistic estimate.

And companies are filling seats for the coming weeks despite the sharp rise in ticket prices, long lines in various airports from Frankfurt to Dublin to Amsterdam and strikes by flight attendants, pilots or air traffic controllers.

But after that?

“Visibility is low because there is a lot of uncertainty,” said Olivier Jankovec, director general of ACI Europe.

“We’re now in a war economy in Europe, we have the prospect of a quite harsh recession, we have inflation at record levels, so how all of this is going to play into consumer sentiment… the jury’s still out.”

The director general for transport and mobility at the European Commission, Henrik Hololei, echoed that thought.

“We really need to tighten the seatbelt because there’s going to be a lot of turbulence,” he told delegates.

“We are entering… a period of uncertainty which we have never experienced in the last decade. And that of course is the biggest enemy of the business,” he said.

Too many unknowns

Hololei listed the war in Ukraine, high energy prices and shortages of energy, food and labor.

“We have also interest rates which are going up for the first time in a decade,” he said.

The price of jet fuel has doubled over the past year, with a refinery capacity shortage compounding the explosion in crude oil prices.

Fuel accounts for about a quarter of the operating costs of airlines, which have passed them on to consumers in ticket prices as they seek to refill coffers drained by the two-year health crisis.

Still, strong demand has returned, confirmed Eleni Kaloyirou, managing director of Hermes Airports, which manages the airports of Larnaca and Paphos in Cyprus, where the high tourist season extends into November.

“People want to take their holidays,” she said, acknowledging, however, “we do worry about next year.”

The general manager of Athens International Airport, Yiannis Paraschis, similarly expressed fears that “the increase in energy costs and inflation will consume a great part of European households’ disposable income.”

The head of Istanbul International Airport, Kadri Samsunlu, voiced concerns about inflation’s effect in Western Europe.

And if consumer confidence is damaged, “We don’t know what’s going to happen to the demand,” he warned.

The last unknown hanging over European air travel in the medium term is a possible new outbreak of coronavirus.

“COVID has not disappeared, and it is not a seasonal flu either,” Hololei warned.
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Before the 2016 presidential election, Illinois farmer Brian Duncan looked to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement between the United States and Asian countries, to boost demand for his crops, and in particular, prices for the thousands of hogs he raises annually.

“Pork is very much in demand in Asian countries, the Pacific rim,” he explained to VOA in a recent interview outside one of the sheds where he tends to his animals. “I was really looking forward to what opportunities could come for pork sales to that part of the world.”

But the TPP became politically problematic for both Democrats and Republicans who eventually distanced themselves from a trade agreement some voters believed would negatively affect U.S. manufacturing jobs. When Republican Donald Trump was elected president in 2016, hopes of passing the TPP ended.

“Part of TPP’s role was to counter China’s growing economic influence and position the United States to be a positive force in the region,” Duncan said. “Those countries have gone ahead without us, they left us behind on trade.”

Max Baucus, a former U.S. senator from Montana and former U.S. ambassador to China, agrees.

“When we pulled out of TPP, we really abdicated our leadership and created a huge vacuum in Southeast Asia,” said Baucus, now a co-chairman of the Farmers for Free Trade advocacy group, while attending a recent online meeting about the Biden administration’s efforts to engage Asian nations in new trade talks. “It’s important to establish an economic counterweight to China. That’s important. That was the whole point of TPP.”

Mark Gebhards, executive director of governmental affairs for the Illinois Farm Bureau, said, “We have been strongly encouraging the Biden administration to do more in terms of building true market access.”

Gebhards says Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) with 12 Asian countries — Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — is a welcome development that could boost U.S. agriculture exports.

“The benefit for us is to increase the market access in extremely important countries which are very willing, very interested in our agricultural products. For our farmers, for our members, there is a direct benefit here,” Gebhards told VOA in an interview at the Illinois Farm Bureau headquarters in Bloomington, Illinois.

“It’s great to talk, it’s a great first step, but we really feel that we need more actual trade agreements put in place especially in light of the Ukrainian conflict and all the things that are happening in the world today. The Indo-Pacific Framework, it is important to note, it is not a trade agreement with these 12 countries that are involved in it. It is really along the lines of a framework to sit down and talk about trade issues. It’s not negotiation that you would enter into in a trade agreement, especially in a bilateral approach that we have with many of these countries.”

Duncan said, “Something is better than nothing, that’s where I’m at with it. Sixty percent of … the world’s population is going to be in those Indo-Pacific countries.”

The White House says the 12 nations in the IPEF also account for about 40% of global GDP.

But Duncan is aware of the limitations of the current talks. “It’s just a framework. We hope it provides a mechanism to go forward and build upon. When I see this framework, it at least answers one of the questions — we haven’t given up on a multilateral agreement in the Pacific Rim, and I think that’s good news. So now, we hope that’s a start, we hope there’s dialogue, and we hope we can build upon this and get people to realize that multilateral agreements are not evil, they can work, and they have worked in the past.”

As he waits — and hopes — for trade talks to turn into trade negotiations, Duncan sees the IPEF as meaningful change in U.S. trade policy.

“I think there’s hope again and realization of the importance of international trade.”
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