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BEIJING/TOKYO — Talks between China and Japan’s foreign ministers in Beijing have paved way for Japan to host China’s foreign affairs chief next year, and mutual agreement to hold a security dialog as soon as possible, Japan said on Wednesday. 

No details were given for when the events will take place but Japan’s Takeshi Iwaya told reporters after his meeting and a working lunch with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that both agreed on continued high-level talks, including potentially an economic dialog during the 2025 visit. 

The one-day visit is Iwaya’s first to the Chinese capital since becoming Japan’s foreign minister in October, to discuss thorny issues with his country’s largest trading partner. 

It follows an agreement between leaders of both countries to work towards a mutually beneficial strategic relationship. 

Ties between the neighbors — trade partners with close economic and investment ties but rivals in security and territorial claims — are complicated with long-standing geopolitical disagreements and historical wartime sensitivities. 

Iwaya raised several security concerns, urging China to take “necessary action” including removing a buoy Japan had identified and believe was installed by China in the exclusive economic zone near one of Japan’s southernmost islands. 

“I also expressed my serious concerns about the situation in the East China Sea…and the increasing activity of the Chinese military,” he said. 

On regional concerns, Wang and Iwaya discussed North Korea. 

Iwaya sought for China to partake in “a responsible role in maintaining peace and security in the international community,” he said. 

Japan has expressed “grave concern” over North Korea’s security alliance with Russia, in which North Korea stands to gain advanced military technology and combat experience. 

Wang stressed in the meeting that the significance of the countries’ relationship went beyond bilateral ties.  

“If China-Japan relations are stable, Asia will be more stable,” Wang said at the start of their meeting. 

Visa rules and seafood ban

In reciprocity to China’s eased visa rules, Japan will remove some requirements for three-year multiple entry tourist visas for Chinese citizens and allow those on group visas to stay up to 30 days, an increase from the previous 15. 

The country also has introduced a new 10-year multiple entry tourist visa. 

Last month, Beijing expanded its visa-free arrangements to include Japan until the end of 2025, restoring a policy that was suspended during the pandemic. 

China also extended the stay period to 30 days from 15. Japanese citizens were able to enter China without a visa for up to 14 days before COVID-19. 

Iwaya pointed out that addressing the safety and security of Japanese nationals was important to increase travel between Japan and China. 

Cases of Japanese nationals detained under China’s anti-espionage law and the lack of transparency around the law have led to Japanese people feeling hesitant about traveling to China, Iwaya said, calling for more transparency and the release of those detained. 

Their discussion of China’s ban on Japanese seafood, highly expected on the agenda, did not indicate any easing on restrictions, but only that both sides agreed to “properly implement” a recent agreement. 

A major sticking point in bilateral ties has been Japan’s discharge of treated radioactive wastewater from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant that Beijing strongly opposed and responded to by tightening inspections on Japanese goods. 

China was Japan’s largest export market for aquatic products until Beijing fully banned them in protest against Tokyo’s actions. 

Both governments reached an agreement in September that obligates Japan to set up a long-term international monitoring arrangement allowing stakeholders such as China to conduct independent sampling of the treated water. 

That was expected to restart the imports but China still wants reassurances from Tokyo that it would fulfill its commitment before “adjusting relevant measures” and gradually restore imports that meet standards and regulations. 

However, both countries were ready to restart talks on resuming Japanese beef and rice imports.
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Major banks and business groups sued the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, alleging the U.S. central bank’s annual “stress tests” of Wall Street firms violate the law.

The lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in Columbus, Ohio, claims the Fed’s practice of determining how big banks perform against hypothetical economic turmoil, and assigning capital requirements accordingly, do not follow proper administrative procedure. Plaintiffs included the Bank Policy Institute, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Bank Association.

The lawsuit marks the latest example of the banking industry growing bolder and challenging in court their regulators’ powers, particularly in the wake of recent Supreme Court rulings placing fresh restrictions on administrative authority.

In June, the Supreme Court dealt a major blow to such power by overturning a 1984 precedent that granted deference to government agencies in interpreting laws they administer. The so-called “Chevron doctrine” had called for judges to defer to reasonable federal agency interpretations of U.S. laws deemed to be ambiguous.  

While the 2010 Dodd-Frank law passed following the global financial crisis broadly requires the Fed to test banks’ balance sheets, the capital adequacy analysis the Fed performs as part of tests, or the resulting capital it directs lenders to set aside, are not mandated by law.

Specifically, the groups are calling for the Fed to make public and subject to feedback the now-confidential models the regulators use to gauge bank performance, as well as details of the annual scenarios they create to test for weaknesses. The groups said they did not want to kill the stress testing program, which provides an annual bill of health to the nation’s biggest firms, but argue the process needs to be more transparent and responsive to public feedback.

On Monday, the Fed announced plans to pursue similar changes ahead of the 2025 exams, citing recent legal developments, but the industry opted to proceed with its lawsuit. A Fed spokesperson declined to comment on the lawsuit on Tuesday.

“The opaque nature of these tests undermines their value for providing meaningful insights into bank resilience,” Rob Nichols, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association, said in a statement.  

“We remain hopeful the Fed will address long-standing issues with the stress tests, but this litigation preserves our ability to seek legal remedies if the Fed falls short.”

These tests, which banks have complained for years are opaque and subjective, are a central piece of the U.S. regulatory bank-capital structure. The Fed has long resisted calls to completely open up the testing process, due to concerns that it could make it easier for banks to clear the exams.

How banks perform on the test informs how much capital they must set aside to meet their obligations and dictate the scope of dividend payouts and stock buybacks.
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TOKYO — Japanese automakers Honda and Nissan have announced plans to work toward a merger, forming world’s third-largest automaker by sales as the industry undergoes dramatic changes in its transition away from fossil fuels.

The two companies said they had signed a memorandum of understanding on Monday and that smaller Nissan alliance member Mitsubishi Motors also had agreed to join the talks on integrating their businesses.

Honda’s president, Toshihiro Mibe, said Honda and Nissan will pursue unifying their operations under a joint holding company. Honda will initially lead the new management, retaining the principles and brands of each company. The aim is to have a formal merger agreement by June and to complete the deal by August 2026, he said.

No dollar value was given and the formal talks are just starting, Mibe said.

There are “points that need to be studied and discussed,” he said. “Frankly speaking, the possibility of this not being implemented is not zero.”

Automakers in Japan have lagged behind their big rivals in electric vehicles and are trying to cut costs and make up for lost time.

News of a possible merger surfaced earlier this month, with unconfirmed reports saying that the talks on closer collaboration partly were driven by aspirations of Taiwan iPhone maker Foxconn to tie up with Nissan, which has an alliance with Renault SA of France and Mitsubishi.

A merger could result in a behemoth worth more than $50 billion based on the market capitalization of all three automakers. Together, Honda and the Nissan alliance with Renault SA of France and smaller automaker Mitsubishi Motors Corp. would gain scale to compete with Toyota Motor Corp. and with Germany’s Volkswagen AG. Toyota has technology partnerships with Japan’s Mazda Motor Corp. and Subaru Corp.

Even after a merger Toyota, which rolled out 11.5 million vehicles in 2023, would remain the leading Japanese automaker. If they join, the three smaller companies would make about 8 million vehicles. In 2023, Honda made 4 million and Nissan produced 3.4 million. Mitsubishi Motors made just over 1 million.

Nissan, Honda and Mitsubishi announced in August that they would share components for electric vehicles like batteries and jointly research software for autonomous driving to adapt better to dramatic changes centered around electrification, following a preliminary agreement between Nissan and Honda set in March.

Honda, Japan’s second-largest automaker, is widely viewed as the only likely Japanese partner able to effect a rescue of Nissan, which has struggled following a scandal that began with the arrest of its former chairman Carlos Ghosn in late 2018 on charges of fraud and misuse of company assets, allegations that he denies. He eventually was released on bail and fled to Lebanon.

Speaking Monday to reporters in Tokyo via a video link, Ghosn derided the planned merger as a “desperate move.”

From Nissan, Honda could get truck-based body-on-frame large SUVs such as the Armada and Infiniti QX80 that Honda doesn’t have, with large towing capacities and good off-road performance, Sam Fiorani, vice president of AutoForecast Solutions, told The Associated Press. 

Nissan also has years of experience building batteries and electric vehicles, and gas-electric hybrid powertrains that could help Honda in developing its own EVs and next generation of hybrids, he said.

But the company said in November that it was slashing 9,000 jobs, or about 6% of its global work force, and reducing its global production capacity by 20% after reporting a quarterly loss of $61 million.

It recently reshuffled its management and Makoto Uchida, its chief executive, took a 50% pay cut to take responsibility for the financial woes, saying Nissan needed to become more efficient and respond better to market tastes, rising costs and other global changes.

“We anticipate that if this integration comes to fruition, we will be able to deliver even greater value to a wider customer base,” Uchida said.

Fitch Ratings recently downgraded Nissan’s credit outlook to “negative,” citing worsening profitability, partly due to price cuts in the North American market. But it noted that it has a strong financial structure and solid cash reserves that amounted to $9.4 billion.

Nissan’s share price also has fallen to the point where it is considered something of a bargain.

The merger reflects an industry-wide trend toward consolidation.

At a routine briefing Monday, Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said he would not comment on details of the automakers’ plans, but said Japanese companies need to stay competitive in the fast-changing global market.

“As the business environment surrounding the automobile industry largely changes, with competitiveness in storage batteries and software is increasingly important, we expect measures needed to survive international competition will be taken,” Hayashi said.
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Washington — President-elect Donald Trump said on Sunday that Stephen Miran, a Treasury Department adviser in his first administration, would be the chair of his Council of Economic Advisers.

The council advises the president on economic policy and is composed of three members, including the chair. The council assists in the preparation of an annual report that gives an overview of the country’s economy, reviews federal policies and programs and makes economic policy recommendations.

Earlier this year, Miran and economist Nouriel Roubini authored a hedge fund study that said the U.S. Treasury last year effectively provided economic stimulus by moderating long-dated bond sales.

The study echoed suggestions by Republican lawmakers that the Treasury deliberately increased issuance of short-term Treasury bills to give the economy a “sugar high” ahead of the November elections. The Treasury denied any such strategy.

Miran, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, has also argued that fears over trade tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose after he takes office next month are overblown.

Trade and economic experts have said such duties would raise prices and would effectively be a new tax on consumers.

Last month, Trump tapped Kevin Hassett, who was a key economic adviser in his first term, to chair his National Economic Council, which helps set domestic and international economic policy.

Hudson Bay Capital took a position in Trump’s social media firm Trump Media & Technology in the first quarter of this year.
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PARIS — Pastry chef Arnaud Delmontel rolls out dough for croissants and pains au chocolat that later emerge golden and fragrant from the oven in his Paris patisserie.

The price for the butter so essential to the pastries has shot up in recent months, by 25% since September alone, Delmontel says. But he is refusing to follow some competitors who have started making their croissants with margarine.

“It’s a distortion of what a croissant is,” Delmontel said. “A croissant is made with butter.”

One of life’s little pleasures — butter spread onto warm bread or imbuing cakes and seared meats with its flavor — has gotten more expensive across Europe in the last year. After a stretch of post-pandemic inflation that the war in Ukraine worsened, the booming cost of butter is another blow for consumers with holiday treats to bake.

Across the 27-member European Union, the price of butter rose 19% on average from October 2023 to October 2024, including by 49% in Slovakia, and 40% in Germany and the Czech Republic, according to figures provided to The Associated Press by the EU’s executive arm. Reports from individual countries indicate the cost has continued to go up in the months since.

In Germany, a 250-gram block of butter now generally costs between 2.40 and 4 euros ($2.49-$4.15), depending on the brand and quality.

The increase is the result of a global shortage of milk caused by declining production, including in the United States and New Zealand, one of the world’s largest butter exporters, according to economist Mariusz Dziwulski, a food and agricultural market analyst at PKO Bank Polski in Warsaw.

European butter typically has a higher fat content than the butter sold in the United States. It also is sold by weight in standard sizes, so food producers can’t hide price hikes by reducing package sizes, something known as “shrinkflation.”

A butter shortage in France in the 19th century led to the invention of margarine, but the French remain some of the continent’s heaviest consumers of butter, using the ingredient with abandon in baked goods and sauces.

Butter is so important in Poland that the government keeps a stockpile of it in the country’s strategic reserves, as it does national gas and COVID-19 vaccines. The government announced Tuesday that it was releasing some 1,000 tons of frozen butter to stabilize prices.

The price of butter rose 11.4% between early November and early December in Poland, and 49.2% over the past year to nearly 37 Polish zlotys, or $9 per kilo for the week ending Dec. 8, according to the National Support Center for Agriculture, a government agency.

“Every month butter gets more expensive,” Danuta Osinska, 77, said while shopping recently at a discount grocery chain in Warsaw.

She and her husband love butter — on bread, in scrambled eggs, in creamy desserts. But they also struggle to pay for medications on their meager pensions. So the couple is eating less butter and more margarine, even though they find the taste of the substitute spread inferior.

“There is no comparison,” Osinska said. “Things are getting harder and harder.”

The cost of butter in Poland has become a political issue. With a presidential election scheduled next year, opponents of centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk are trying to blame him and his Civic Platform party. The party’s presidential candidate is seeking to blame the national bank’s governor, who hails from an opposing political camp, for the inflation.

Some consumers decide where to shop based on the price of butter, which has led to price wars between grocery chains that in some cases kept prices artificially low in the past to the detriment of dairy farmers, according to Agnieszka Maliszewska, the director of the Polish Chamber of Milk.

Maliszewska thinks domestic, EU-specific and global issues explain butter inflation. She argues that the primary cause is a shortage of milk fat due to dairy farmers shutting down their enterprises across Europe because of slim profit markets and hard work.

She and others also cite higher energy costs from Russia’s war in Ukraine as impacting milk production. There is some debate about the potential effect of climate change. Maliszewska doesn’t see a link.

Economist Dziwulski, however, thinks droughts may be a factor in reducing production. Falling milk prices last year also discouraged investments and pushed dairy producers in the EU to make more cheese, which offered better profitability, he said.

An outbreak of bluetongue disease, an insect-borne viral disease that is harmless to humans but can be fatal for sheep, cows and goats, may also play a role, Dziwulski said.

The U.S. saw a butter price spike in 2022, when the average price jumped 33% to about $9 per kilo over the course of the year, according to government data. Dairy farmers struggled with feed costs and hot temperatures.

U.S. butter prices fell in 2023 before rising again this year, hitting a peak of about $10 per kilo in September. Higher grocery prices in general weighed on U.S. voters during the presidential election in November.

Southern European countries, which rely far more heavily on olive oil, are less affected by the butter inflation — or they just don’t consider it as important since they consume so much less.

Since last year the cost of butter shot up 44% on average in Italy, according to dairy market analysis firm CLAL. Italy is Europe’s seventh-largest butter producer, but olive oil is the preferred fat, even for some desserts. The price of butter therefore is not causing the same alarm there as it is in butter-addicted parts of Europe.

Delmontel, the Paris pastry chef, said the rising costs put business owners like him under pressure. Along with refusing to switch out butter for margarine, he has not reduced the size of his croissants. But some other French bakers are making smaller pastries to control costs, he said.

“Or else you squeeze it out of your profit margin,” Delmontel said. 
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Amazon.com workers at seven U.S. facilities walked off the job early on Thursday during the holiday shopping rush, aiming to pressure the retailer into contract talks with their union. 

Warehouse workers in cities including New York, Atlanta and San Francisco are taking part in the “largest” strike against Amazon, said the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which represents about 10,000 workers at 10 of the firm’s facilities. 

The company, however, said it does not expect any effect on its operations during one of the busiest times of the year. 

Unions represent only about 1% of the hourly workforce of Amazon, the world’s second-largest private employer after Walmart, and it has multiple locations in many metro areas. 

The Teamsters had given Amazon a Dec. 15 deadline to begin negotiations and warehouse workers had recently voted to authorize a strike. 

“If your package is delayed during the holidays, you can blame Amazon’s insatiable greed,” Teamsters’ General President Sean O’Brien said late on Wednesday. 

“We gave Amazon a clear deadline to come to the table and do right by our members. They ignored it. This strike is on them.” 

The retailer’s shares were trading 1.5% higher in premarket hours, a sign that investors do not expect a big disruption from the strike.  

The Teamsters have “intentionally misled the public” and “threatened, intimidated and attempted to coerce” employees and third-party drivers to join them, an Amazon spokesperson said on Thursday. 

Observers said Amazon was unlikely to come to the table to bargain as that could open the door to more union actions.  

It employs more than 800,000 people at its U.S. warehouses and has more than 600 fulfillment centers, delivery stations and same-day facilities in the country. 

Amazon has responded to recent organization efforts with legal challenges. Amazon has filed objections with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) over a 2022 union vote in Staten Island, alleging bias among agency officials.  

It also challenged the constitutionality of the NLRB in a September federal lawsuit. 

Earlier this year, the company announced a $2.1 billion investment to raise pay for fulfillment and transportation employees in the U.S., increasing base wages for employees by at least $1.50 to around $22 per hour, a roughly 7% increase. 
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Bangkok — For many countries in Southeast Asia, Chinese investment and tourism are key to their economies. However, cheap low-quality Chinese products that are flooding markets across the region are also raising concerns about how they are undercutting local businesses, experts say.

That is forcing countries like Thailand to find ways to combat onslaught of low-priced goods.

Last year, bilateral trade between Thailand and China was more than $126 billion, with direct Chinese foreign investment heavily contributing to the Thai economy.

Three of Thailand’s main economic industries are manufacturing, agriculture and services. But manufacturing has seen a decline, with 2,000 factories closing in 2023, leading to thousands of jobs lost, according to data from the Department of Industrial Works.

Business owners have long bemoaned the fact that low-quality Chinese goods are undercutting local Thai businesses.

Bobae Shopping Mall – a retail and wholesale market in Bangkok – is one of the places where that impact is showing. With seven floors dedicated to shopping units, many have their shutters down, even though Thailand is in its peak season and Christmas is next week.

Banchob Pianphanitporn is the owner of Ben’s Socks, which is located on the fifth floor. He has owned the business for 26 years and manages four units. He has one factory in Thailand that employs 24 staff in total.

He said that over the last decade, his sales have dropped by half because of Chinese imports.

“I would say [sales are] 50% down since 10 years ago,” he told VOA.

“I sell socks for 150 baht ($4.38) per a dozen, but if this was a Chinese product, they would sell at 85 baht ($2.48). If [customers] have low budget they will say [my socks] are expensive. They don’t consider the materials, [my socks] are much better material and more flexible,” he added.

Thailand’s slow manufacturing industry has contributed to a sluggish year for the economy. Forecasts project that Thailand’s economic will grow by 2.3% – 2.8% percent in 2024, which is less than its regional neighbors. Although the Bank of Thailand forecasts a 3% growth in 2025, concerns from business owners remain.

Banchob points to several closures of units in his mall, blaming Thailand’s economy. But in an effort to remain open, he promotes his business on social media to attract more customers.

“Social media is a must. I’m on TikTok; I make much content. I have to work harder to tell people I’m still alive; Ben Sock’s made in Thailand is here,” he added.

According to Thai government spokesperson Sasikarn Wattanachan, there has been a 20 percent decrease in low-quality imports in Thailand since July. Authorities have introduced tighter inspections of cheap imports, focusing on agricultural, consumer and industrial items. Thailand has also added a 7% value added tax on goods imported that are under 1,500 baht or $43.77, the Bangkok Post has reported.

But for other sellers and store owners, they don’t see any difference.

Pam, a seller at Pretty Baby, a baby clothes store in the Bangkok mall, says the seemingly unlimited stock from Chinese manufacturers has affected sales. Pam did not want to disclose her full name fearing retaliation for speaking with the press.

“[Chinese products] are selling a lot, but we don’t have that much stock. The government still allows the products from overseas. Our sales have dropped down a little bit,” she told VOA.

For some customers, retaining regular customers is key to beating cheaper alternatives.

Prang is part-owner of V.C. shop, a clothing store which specializes in loose-fitting clothing known as elephant pants.

“The hard advertising from Chinese people [on social media] has had a big effect,” she told VOA. Prang too did not want to give her full name.

“Pants can sell here for 70 baht ($2.04) but Chinese sell for 50 baht ($1.46). In the past we can tell [the difference] between Thai and China products, now China copies look 99 percent the same. We cannot fight with the costs, but we are confident on our material and quality, and we can keep our customers,” she added.

It’s not just Thailand that is trying to reduce low-quality imports. A growing number of countries across Asia are looking for ways to protect local manufacturers and trade.

In India, a proposed temporary tax of 25% on steel imports is likely to be imposed to curb cheaper alternatives from China and boost production from Indian manufacturers, the Reuters news agency reported on December 17.

And in Indonesia, protests against Chinese imports have prompted Jakarta to propose a 200% tariff on certain imported clothing and ceramic goods, to protect small and medium enterprises.

Vietnam also relies heavily on China in trade. Beijing is Hanoi’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade amounting to more than $171 billion in 2023. Although both governments share communist ideologies and a 1,287-kilometer land border, Vietnam is also acting to combat China’s cheap imports.

In late November, Hanoi banned Chinese online retailers Shein and Temu after the two companies failed to meet a business registration deadline with the Vietnamese government. But local businesses in Vietnam have long voiced concern over discounted products and the sale of counterfeit items from the retailer.

“Cheap Chinese imports from platforms like Shein and Temu are flooding Vietnam’s markets, squeezing local producers and sparking outrage over unfair competition,” Nguyen Khac Giang, Visiting Fellow at ISEAS, told VOA.

“In response the government is cracking down by scrapping VAT exemptions, tightening oversight, and banning platforms which do not register in Vietnam. It’s a bold move to rein in Chinese e-commerce giants and defend local businesses, but I think the fight is far from over,” he added.

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who focuses on Southeast Asia politics, says both Thailand and Vietnam may also have another motive.

“China produces on an economy of scale that no one in Southeast Asia can, their productions costs are lower for most products. I think what you see Thailand and Vietnam doing now is trying to court Chinese investment for local production, to create local product ecosystems. But neither is willing to take China head on and accuse them of unfair trading practices,” he told VOA.
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WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Wednesday by a quarter-point — its third cut this year — but also signaled that it expects to reduce rates more slowly next year than it previously envisioned, largely because of still-elevated inflation.

The Fed’s 19 policymakers projected that they would cut their benchmark rate by a quarter-point just twice in 2025, down from their estimate in September of four rate cuts. Their new projections suggest that consumers may not enjoy much lower rates next year for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and other forms of borrowing.

Fed officials have underscored that they are slowing their rate reductions as their benchmark rate nears a level that policymakers refer to as “neutral” — the level that is thought to neither spur nor hinder the economy. Wednesday’s projections suggest that the policymakers may think they are not very far from that level. Their benchmark rate stands at 4.3% after Wednesday’s move, which followed a steep half-point reduction in September and a quarter-point cut last month.

This year’s Fed rate reductions have marked a reversal after more than two years of high rates, which largely helped tame inflation but also made borrowing painfully expensive for American consumers.

Balancing inflation and unemployment

But now, the Fed is facing a variety of challenges as it seeks to complete a “soft landing” for the economy, whereby high rates manage to curb inflation without causing a recession. Chief among them is that inflation remains sticky: According to the Fed’s preferred gauge, annual “core” inflation, which excludes the most volatile categories, was 2.8% in October. That is still persistently above the central bank’s 2% target.

At the same time, the economy is growing briskly, which suggests that higher rates haven’t much restrained the economy. As a result, some economists — and some Fed officials — have argued that borrowing rates shouldn’t be reduced much more for fear of overheating the economy and re-igniting inflation. On the other hand, the pace of hiring has cooled significantly since 2024 began, a potential worry because one of the Fed’s mandates is to achieve maximum employment.

The unemployment rate, while still low at 4.2%, has risen nearly a full percentage point in the past two years. Concern over rising unemployment contributed to the Fed’s decision in September to cut its key rate by a larger-than-usual half point.

On top of that, President-elect Donald Trump has proposed a range of tax cuts — on Social Security benefits, tipped income and overtime income — as well as a scaling-back of regulations. Collectively, these moves could stimulate growth. At the same time, Trump has threatened to impose a variety of tariffs and to seek mass deportations of migrants, which could accelerate inflation.

Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have said they won’t be able to assess how Trump’s policies might affect the economy or their own rate decisions until more details are made available and it becomes clearer how likely it is that the president-elect’s proposals will be enacted. Until then, the outcome of the presidential election has mostly heightened the uncertainty surrounding the economy.

“I’ve got the least amount of conviction about what will happen with the economy over the next 12 months than I’ve had in years,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale. “This is going to be a work in progress as things evolve.”

Projections for 2025

Such uncertainty was underscored by the quarterly economic projections the Fed issued Wednesday. The policymakers now expect overall inflation, as measured by their preferred gauge, to rise slightly from 2.3% now to 2.5% by the end of 2025.

Inflation by their measure is now far below its peak of 7.2% in June 2022. Even so, the prospect of slightly higher inflation makes it harder for the Fed to reduce borrowing costs because high interest rates are its principal weapon against inflation.

The officials also expect the unemployment rate to inch up by the end of next year, from 4.2% now to a still-low 4.3%. That slight increase might not be enough, by itself, to justify many more rate cuts.

Most other central banks around the world are also cutting their benchmark rates. Last week, the European Central Bank lowered its key rate for the fourth time this year to 3% from 3.25%, as inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro has fallen to 2.3% from a peak of 10.6% in late 2022. The Bank of Canada also cut its rate by a quarter-point last week, as did the Bank of England last month.
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NAIROBI, KENYA — Kenya’s president said Tuesday that a mass livestock vaccination campaign will continue despite fears of some herders and farmers that the inoculations will somehow hurt their animals.

Kenyan President William Ruto lashed out at those objecting to a Ministry of Agriculture livestock vaccination program, which the ministry says is aimed at blocking the spread of several diseases and making the livestock meet international standards.

Critics have questioned the effectiveness of the vaccines, and some livestock farmers expressed concern — not backed by any evidence — that the vaccine program is meant to sabotage their herds.

Patrick Torome, a livestock farmer in the Rift Valley region of Kenya, said he will not allow his animals to be inoculated.

“I will not vaccinate my animals because maybe I will be compromising the quality of my cows,” he said. “We don’t know whether someone is trying to introduce a virus to the animals. So, the rich will be able to afford the cure but the poor maybe will not be able, so people will introduce poverty in Africa.”

Ruto, speaking at a goat auction in Baringo County, said the vaccinations will help Kenyan farmers make money — and was critical of those who oppose them.

“I want to promise the people of Kenya that we are going to carry out this vaccination because our farmers deserve improved earnings,” he said. “I want to ask leaders who have no knowledge, who have no understanding, who have no plan, to spare us their ignorance.”

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, the vaccination drive targets 22 million cattle and 50 million sheep and goats.

The ministry has assured animal owners the vaccines are safe and are produced locally.

Ruto said those against the vaccination of animals are preventing livestock owners from accessing international markets for their products.

“Vaccination is about disease control. … You cannot use disinformation and fake news to deny the people of Kenya international markets by discouraging disease control in Kenya,” he said.

Anthrax, foot and mouth disease, rift valley fever, African swine fever and rinderpest are some of the diseases that affect livestock in Kenya.

According to the World Health Organization, animal vaccination helps prevent and control the spread of the diseases.

The Ministry of Agriculture says so far, only 10% of animals have been vaccinated. It says the vaccination rate needs to rise to 85% to make livestock products eligible for export.

Some farmers and experts have blamed the government for the low uptake of vaccines, saying it failed to provide a clear message and allowed politicians to assume the roles of experts and veterinarians, which has fueled the false message about vaccines.
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After the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the value of the Syrian currency increased against the U.S. dollar, but the price of goods remains high. Residents say that traders are exploiting this situation and that official monitoring institutions are not properly preventing this.

Click here to see the full story in Kurdish.
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ZURICH — The Financial Stability Board (FSB) on Wednesday pitched recommendations for governments to reduce risks around hedge funds, insurers and other non-bank financial intermediaries, which now account for almost half of global financial assets.  

The sector of non-bank financial intermediation has grown by around 130% between 2009 and 2023, making markets more vulnerable for stress events, according to the Basel-based FSB, which acts as the G20’s financial risk watchdog. 

“This growth comes with an increase in complexity and interconnectedness in the financial system, which, if not properly managed, can pose substantial risks to financial stability,” said FSB Secretary General John Schindler. 

In its consultation report, the FSB proposed member governments and institutions enhance their focus on non-banks and ensure they manage their credit risks adequately. 

One set of recommendations calls for the creation of domestic frameworks to identify and monitor financial stability risks related to non-bank leverage. 

Another group proposes that policy measures be selected, designed and calibrated by governments to mitigate the identified financial stability risks. 

A third group deals with counterparty credit risk management, calling for a timely and thorough implementation of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s revised guidelines.  

The FSB also proposed stepping up private disclosure practices in the non-bank sector and addressing any regulatory inconsistencies by adopting the principle of “same risk, same regulatory treatment.” 

A last recommendation calls for improved cross-border cooperation and collaboration.  

With the consultation report, the FSB is inviting comments from member governments and institutions on its policy recommendations. 

A final report is planned for release in mid-2025.
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Tokyo — Japan wants renewable energy to account for up to 50% of its electricity mix by fiscal year 2040 with nuclear power taking up another 20%, according to a draft of its revised basic energy policy, as it makes a clean energy push while meeting rising power demand.

As the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas and a major consumer of Middle Eastern oil, Japan and its basic energy plans are drawing global attention from oil, gas and coal producers.

Thermal power usage, particularly from inefficient coal-fired power plants, is set to decrease to between 30% and 40% by 2040 from 68.6% in 2023, although the draft energy policy does not specify the breakdown of coal, gas and oil.

“It is necessary to utilize LNG-fired power as a realistic means of transition, and the government and the private sector must jointly secure the necessary long-term LNG contracts in preparation for risks such as price hikes and supply disruptions,” the draft said.

The industry ministry’s policy draft unveiled on Tuesday proposes increasing renewables to between 40% and 50% of power supplies in the 2040 fiscal year, roughly doubling the 22.9% share in the 2023 fiscal year and exceeding the 2030 target of between 36% and 38%.

Japan’s 2040 nuclear power target is in line with the 2030 target of between 20% and 22%, despite the challenges faced by the industry after the 2011 Fukushima disaster. Nuclear power accounted for 8.5% of the country’s power supply in 2023.

The new energy plan removes the previous target of “reducing reliance on nuclear power as much as possible” and includes plans to build innovative next-generation reactors at nuclear power sites owned by operators who have decided to decommission existing reactors.

 
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GENEVA  — Migrants play a crucial role in the global economy by filling essential jobs in foreign countries and sending much-needed remittances to their home countries, according to a report released Monday by the International Labour Organization.

The report’s release comes as President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to deport millions of undocumented migrants from the United States. During his presidential campaign, he accused them of draining economic resources and taking jobs from native-born Americans.

The ILO report says migrants usually bring a net economic benefit to the countries they enter and those from which they depart.

“Migrants drive economic growth in destination countries, and they support home countries through their remittances and skills transfer,” Sukti Dasgupta, director of the ILO’s conditions of work and equalities department, told journalists at a briefing in Geneva on Monday.

Rafael Diez de Medina, chief statistician at ILO, said the report debunks the assertion by some that “migrants are taking away [the] jobs of nationals.”

“I would like to say that migrant workers often fill specific roles in low-wage or specialized jobs, and often as seasonal workers, and that they complement, rather than displace, the national labor force.

“There might be competition in specific contexts, but we do not really have evidence of migrants taking away jobs from nationals,” he said.

“In this report, migrants in the labor force include all foreign-born persons in the labor force of a host country who are employed or unemployed regardless of their legal status in the country,” Diez de Medina added. “So, documented and undocumented, regardless of the employment permission to the host country, are included in our figures.”

The report presents global and regional estimates of migrants in the labor force covering 189 countries and territories for 2022, representing 99% of the world population at that time.

Migrant labor force increases

The report says 167.7 million migrants were part of the international labor force as of 2022, accounting for 4.7% of the working force worldwide.

The report finds that the migrant global labor force has increased by more than 30 million since 2013, but notes that from 2019 to 2022, “the rate of growth slowed down to less than one percent annually.” This is attributed largely to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

While migration patterns have changed in some regions of the world, the ILO said the overall composition of migrant workers has remained relatively stable, with men accounting for about 61% percent and women making up 39%.

About 68% of international migrants in the labor force, the report noted, were concentrated in high-income countries located in northern, southern and western Europe, North America, and the Arab states.

“Migrants were concentrated in high-income countries drawn by higher living standards and more job opportunities,” said Dasgupta, who added that most migrants work in the service sector.

“This is where we find 70 percent of all working migrants, and this is particularly true for women,” she said.

Diez de Medina said the estimates presented are based on a new and improved methodology that allows for more detailed breakdowns than before.

In 2022, the ILO reported that more migrants faced a higher unemployment rate of 7.2% compared to the rate of 5.2% for non-migrants, with more migrant women than men out of work.

According to the report, “This disparity may be driven by factors such as language barriers, unrecognized qualifications, discrimination, and limited childcare options.”

Migrants and legal protections

Diez de Medina stressed the importance of ensuring that migrant workers have access to social and labor protection and “are covered by the country’s labor laws, particularly for domestic workers.”

Instead of being a drain on society, he said, migrant workers are a benefit and “are essential for the global economy, particularly in certain sectors such as services, manufacturing and agriculture.”

“If there were to be major restrictions on the movement of migrant workers, there would be labor shortages in particular sectors in the destination countries,” he said.

Dasgupta agreed that migrants contribute significantly to host economies through taxes, social security payments and other means.

“Their employment to population ratios are often higher,” she said, noting the report finds that “migrants contribute more than they withdraw, particularly for the second-generation migrants.”
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On the U.S. West Coast, conservationists for the world’s largest dam-removal project are both celebrating initial successes and encountering short-term obstacles. VOA’s Matt Dibble has our story from the Klamath River on the border between California and Oregon.
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In the Pacific Northwest, the world’s largest river restoration project has removed hydroelectric dams from the Klamath River to help migrating salmon. The project emptied a lake beloved to its surrounding community. VOA’s Matt Dibble went to the former Copco Lake to see how residents are adjusting.
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The economy was one of the biggest issues for voters in this year’s U.S. presidential election. As they await Donald Trump’s return to power, many Americans say they expect improving the economy will be one of his first priorities. VOA Correspondent Scott Stearns has our story.
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PARIS — Credit ratings agency Moody’s unexpectedly downgraded France’s rating on Friday, adding pressure on the country’s new prime minister to corral divided lawmakers into backing his efforts to rein in the strained public finances.

The downgrade, which came outside of Moody’s regular review schedule for France, brings its rating to “Aa3” from “Aa2” with a stable outlook for future moves and puts it in line with those from rival agencies Standard & Poor’s and Fitch.

It comes hours after President Emmanuel Macron named on Friday veteran centrist politician and early ally Francois Bayrou as his fourth prime minister this year.

His predecessor, Michel Barnier, failed to pass a 2025 budget and was toppled earlier this month by left-wing and far-right lawmakers opposed to his $63 billion (60 billion euro) belt-tightening push that he had hoped would rein in France’s spiraling fiscal deficit.

The political crisis forced the outgoing government to propose emergency legislation this week to temporarily roll over 2024 spending limits and tax thresholds into next year until a more permanent 2025 budget can be passed.

“Looking ahead, there is now very low probability that the next government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year,” Moody’s said in a statement.

“As a result, we forecast that France’s public finances will be materially weaker over the next three years compared to our October 2024 baseline scenario,” it added.

Barnier had intended to cut the budget deficit next year to 5% of economic output from 6.1% this year with a $63 billion (60 billion euro) package of spending cuts and tax hikes.

But left-wing and far-right lawmakers were opposed to much of the belt-tightening drive and voted a no confidence measure against Barnier’s government, bringing it down.

Bayrou, who has long warned about France’s weak public finances, said on Friday shortly after taking office that he faced a “Himalaya” of a challenge reining in the deficit.

Outgoing Finance Minister Antoine Armand said he took note of Moody’s decision, adding there was a will to reduce the deficit as indicated by the nomination of Bayrou.

The political crisis put French stocks and debt under pressure, pushing the risk premium on French government bonds at one point to their highest level over 12 years.
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