Author: PolitCens

The United States will send a small number of contractors to Ukraine to help it maintain and repair the U.S.-provided weapons and air defense systems it is using against Russia’s invasion, a defense official said Friday.

The official said the contractors “will be far from the front lines and they will not be fighting Russian forces.”

Ukraine needs the contractors to repair and maintain equipment, such as F-16s and Patriot air defense systems, that requires “specific technical expertise to maintain,” the official said.

The decision to send the contractors was made “after careful risk assessment,” the official said.

On Wednesday, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to congratulate him on his election victory, Trump had Elon Musk join the call. The billionaire businessman was a contributor to Trump’s presidential campaign.

A Ukrainian official told The Associated Press that Zelenskyy thanked Musk for helping Ukraine gain access to the Starlink satellite internet platform. Other media outlets reported that Trump told Zelenskyy that he would support Ukraine, and that Musk said he would continue to supply Starlink.

Musk was on the phone for only part of the conversation.

Overnight attacks

Ukrainian officials said Friday morning that Russia attacked the regions of Odesa, Kharkiv and Kyiv overnight into Friday with drones, missiles and aerial bombs, damaging residential buildings and infrastructure and killing at least one person and injuring at least 25.

Regional officials in Kharkiv say a Russian guided aerial bomb struck a 12-story residential building in the early hours Friday. They said the bomb struck the first three floors. A search was underway for anyone trapped in the rubble.

In Odesa, police and emergency service officials told the French news agency Agence France-Presse that a Russian drone struck several residential buildings, sparking fires in some. They said a 46-year-old man was killed when his car was struck by shrapnel, and at least nine others were injured.

The Odesa officials reported shrapnel from the attacks also ruptured fuel lines, causing several fires.

On the social media platform X, President Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces shot down four missiles and about 60 drones launched by Russia against Ukraine overnight Thursday.

“Each time Russia attempts to destroy our lives, it is crucial to respond collectively and decisively at the international level to reduce and block the potential for terror,” Zelenskyy wrote. “Ukraine needs strength to achieve this. This is the only way to achieve a just peace and to ending the killing of our people,” he said.

He called for more air defenses, and long-range capabilities, weapons packages, and sanctions against Russia.

Zelenskyy took that message Thursday to the European Political Community Summit in Budapest, where he met with European leaders and reportedly reached new defense agreements to strengthen Ukrainian forces, along with agreements on positive steps toward reinforcing air defenses before winter.

But while most European leaders signaled continued support for Ukraine’s war effort, there were indications that Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections this week could change that picture.

In a radio interview Friday, the host of that summit, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has close ties to both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, said U.S. support for Ukraine will end with the election of Trump and that Europe needs to re-think its approach to the war.

“The Americans will quit this war,” Orban told Hungarian state radio and indicated he felt Europe must follow suit.

“Europe cannot finance this war alone, there are some who still want it, who still want to continue sending enormous amounts of money into this lost war, but the number of those who remain silent, though they were loud before, and those who cautiously voice that we should adjust to the new situation, is growing,” Orban said.

The Hungarian leader made the comments ahead of the European Union summit Friday in Budapest. Before that meeting, outgoing European Council President Charles Michel told reporters Europe wants to strengthen ties with the United States and continue strengthening Ukraine.

“We have to support Ukraine because if we do not support Ukraine, this is the wrong signal that we send to Putin but also to some other authoritarian regimes across the world,” Michel said.

Trump has criticized the level of U.S. support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, and before the election he promised to end the conflict before even taking office, without explaining how.

Some information for this story was provided by The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse. 
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Southern California firefighters made progress against a wildfire that has destroyed 132 structures, mostly homes. The fierce wind gusts that fanned the flames began easing Friday, allowing some people to return to sort through the charred remains of their homes. 

Maryanne Belote returned to her hillside neighborhood in Camarillo, a city northwest of Los Angeles, after making a harrowing escape with her cat, dog and horses as the blaze raged in the area. The only thing standing was a rock wall she built. 

“If I hadn’t gotten the horses, I would have been devastated, but I have my family and I have my animals so, I’m OK. I will rebuild,” she said, standing outside the remains of her home of 50 years. 

The Mountain Fire started Wednesday morning in Ventura County and had grown to about 83 square kilometers. It was 7% contained Friday morning. 

About 10,000 people remained under evacuation orders Friday morning as the fire continued to threaten about 3,500 structures in suburban neighborhoods, ranches and agricultural areas around Camarillo in Ventura County. 

At least 88 structures were damaged in addition to the 132 destroyed. Officials did not specify whether they had fire, water or smoke damage. 

The cause of the fire has not been determined.

Ten people suffered smoke inhalation or other non-life-threatening injuries, Ventura County Sheriff James Fryhoff said. 

Crews working in steep terrain with support from water-dropping helicopters were focusing on protecting homes on hillsides along the fire’s northeast edge near the city of Santa Paula, home to more than 30,000 people, county fire officials said. 

Officials in several Southern California counties urged residents to watch for fast-spreading blazes, power outages and downed trees during the latest round of notorious Santa Ana winds. 

Santa Anas are dry, warm and gusty northeast winds that blow from the interior of Southern California toward the coast and offshore, moving in the opposite direction of the normal onshore flow that carries moist air from the Pacific. They typically occur during the fall months and continue through winter and into early spring. 

Red flag warnings, indicating conditions for high fire danger, expired Friday morning when winds began diminishing. 

Governor Gavin Newsom has proclaimed a state of emergency in Ventura County. 

An air quality alert for harmful fine particle pollution was in effect from Friday morning until Saturday afternoon due to smoke from the wildfires. 

Across the country in New Jersey, firefighters were stretched thin Friday with at least four wildfires burning in the state, stretching from the Pinelands in the central and western parts of the state to the New York City suburbs. 

The latest fire broke out along the Palisades Interstate Parkway in Englewood Cliffs in Bergen County, across the Hudson River from New York. 

It was smaller than the three others burning in New Jersey, each of which had burned less than a square mile as of late Thursday. 

Those fires, in Jackson, Glassboro and Evesham, were between 50% and 80% contained Friday. 

New Jersey has not received measurable precipitation in over a month, the weather service said, setting a record.
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With her appointment as chief of staff to President-elect Donald Trump, Susie Wiles moves from a largely behind-the-scenes role of campaign co-chair to one of the most prominent positions in a new White House administration.

The 67-year-old will become the first woman to serve in the post for any U.S. president when she assumes the role as the president’s closest adviser in January.

In announcing his decision Thursday, Trump said Wiles is “tough, smart, innovative, and is universally admired and respected.” It was his first appointment since winning Tuesday’s election against Vice President Kamala Harris.

“It is a well deserved honor to have Susie as the first-ever female Chief of Staff in United States history. I have no doubt that she will make our country proud,” Trump said in his statement.

Wiles largely avoided the spotlight during her time as co-chair of Trump’s successful election campaign and was credited — along with co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita — with bringing some discipline to Trump’s free-wheeling, off-script campaign style.

She didn’t speak during Trump’s victory celebration early Wednesday morning when he called her to the podium, and she refused to take the microphone.

Wiles rarely gives televised interviews and tends to avoid the spotlight, a contrast with LaCivita, who is known for being outspoken.

For someone of her stature, she is not well-known in political circles. During his victory speech, Trump referred to Wiles as the “ice maiden.”

She is one of Trump’s most trusted advisers. During a rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, earlier this month, he said: “She’s incredible. Incredible.”

Top Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio told Politico in April, “There is nobody, I think, that has the wealth of information that she does. Nobody in our orbit. Nobody.”

While Wiles is a somewhat enigmatic figure, she has a long career of working behind the scenes in U.S. politics.

Shortly after she graduated from the University of Maryland in 1979, she went to work for New York Congressman Jack Kemp and joined Ronald Reagan’s presidential campaign in 1980.

She eventually moved to Florida where she advised the campaigns of two Florida mayors and helped then-businessman Rick Scott transition to politics in his successful 2010 campaign for governor.

She managed Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr.’s presidential bid in 2012, and managed Florida for Trump’s 2016 campaign. She joined Ron DeSantis’ race for governor in 2018, but she parted ways with him after a falling out in 2019.

Wiles made a rare appearance on social media shortly before DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race in January. “Bye, bye,” she wrote.

She went on to run Trump’s primary campaign against DeSantis, which Trump easily won.

Wiles is the only campaign manager to survive an entire Trump campaign and is known for her ability to tamp down his mercurial, sometimes volatile behavior.

In one anecdote reported by The Associated Press, during a campaign speech in Pennsylvania when Trump strayed off his talking points and quipped about not minding if members of the media were shot, she came out and silently stared at him until he got back on track.

That ability should serve her well in her new role. In his last four years in office, Trump went through four chiefs of staff, a record for modern presidents.

Some information in this report was provided by The Associated Press.
…

With former President Donald Trump returning to the White House, Ukrainians are bracing for potential shifts in U.S. policy that could reshape its fight for survival against Russian aggression. Trump’s agenda could take a sharp turn from the Biden administration’s unwavering support, raising fears that vital U.S. aid might be at risk. Myroslava Gongadze reports from Europe. Camera: Vladyslav Smilianets
…

The U.S. military says it is investigating what caused an army drone to crash in southern Somalia this week.

The military’s Africa Command, known as AFRICOM, confirmed the incident in a post Friday on social media platform X.

“A U.S. Army operated MQ-1C crashed in southern Somalia at approximately 12:40 PM local on Nov. 5,” AFRICOM said. “An investigation is ongoing, although the crash does not appear to be the result of any attempt to shoot down the aircraft.” 

AFRICOM said it will release more information as it becomes available.

AFRICOM did not disclose the exact location of the crash, but a Somali official said he was told a drone crashed in an area controlled by the al-Shabab militant group.

Mohamed Ibrahim Barre, the governor of Lower Shabelle, told the VOA Horn of Africa Service that the drone crashed north of Farsoley village, in Lower Shabelle, about 85 kilometers west of Mogadishu. Barre said he did not know who the drone belongs to.

The U.S. military has conducted surveillance and airstrikes against al-Shabab for years in support of successive Somali administrations.

In addition, the U.S. also trains an elite Somali commando unit known as Danab, or lightning. Earlier this year, U.S. and Somalia have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for the construction of up to five military bases for the Danab Brigade, in a project valued at over $100 million.

This story originated in VOA’s Horn of Africa Service.
…

BEIJING/HONG KONG — After Donald Trump first stormed the White House eight years ago, rattled Chinese leaders responded to his tariffs and fiery rhetoric with force, resulting in a trade war that plunged ties between the globe’s largest economies to multiyear lows.

This time around, Beijing has been preparing for Trump’s return by deepening ties with allies, boosting self-reliance in tech, and setting aside money to prop up the economy that is now more vulnerable to fresh tariffs already threatened by Trump.

While some retaliation to those moves might be unavoidable, China will focus on exploiting rifts between the U.S. and its allies, experts say, and aim to lower the temperature to help strike an early deal to cushion the blow from trade friction.

Zhao Minghao, international relations expert at Shanghai’s Fudan University said China probably wouldn’t replay the playbook from the first Trump presidency when Beijing had a very strong reaction to Trump’s moves on tariffs.

He pointed out Chinese President Xi Jinping’s message to Trump from Thursday, in which Xi called for “cooperation” and not “confrontation,” emphasizing “stable, sound and sustainable” relations between the two superpowers.

“Trump is not a stranger to Beijing at this time,” Zhao told Reuters. “Beijing would respond in a measured way and make efforts to communicate with the Trump team.”

While Chinese tech giants are now far less reliant on U.S. imports, the economy — hit by a massive property crisis and saddled with unsustainable debt — is in a weaker position than in 2016, struggling to eke out 5% growth compared to 6.7% then.

To make things worse, Trump has pledged to end China’s most-favored-nation trading status and slap tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% – much higher than those imposed during his first term.

Fudan’s Zhao said Beijing has this scenario gamed out but expects tariffs to come in below the level pledged on the campaign trail because “that would significantly push up the inflation in the U.S.”

Still, that threat alone has unnerved producers in the world’s largest exporter because China sells goods worth more than $400 billion a year to the U.S. and hundreds of billions more in parts for products Americans buy elsewhere.

Li Mingjiang, a scholar at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said that as a result, the Chinese economy might require even more stimulus than the $1.4 trillion expected on Friday.

“It’ll be a very serious blow to China’s international trade that will affect jobs and government revenues,” said Li. “China will probably have to come up with a much bigger stimulus package domestically.”

Charm offensive

To boost global trade, China has been on a diplomatic blitz, shoring up alliances, mending fences with foes, and continuing difficult talks with the European Union, even after the bloc imposed stiff tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Last month China ended a four-year military stand-off with India on their disputed border; in August, it resolved a two-year spat with Japan over the discharge of radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear plant; and Premier Li Qiang in June visited Australia — the first such trip in seven years.

Also last month, both Xi and Li attended separate summits of BRICS — which now accounts for 35% of the global economy — and the 10-state Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as China deepens ties with the Global South.

“The first Trump administration did not show a lot of interest in robust engagement in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, which provided the Chinese a lot of latitude to operate in these markets largely uncontested,” said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project.

In Europe, trade tensions with China could be counterbalanced by worries over Trump’s potentially reduced role in the Ukraine war and his economic policies, creating an opening for Beijing, say some experts.

“China will carry on reaching out to Europeans, the British, the Australians and even the Japanese, not only to try to drive a wedge between the U.S. and the countries of the north,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, an expert at Hong Kong’s Baptist University.

“But also as part of its mission to rebalance its foreign trade in favor of the Global South,” he said.

Tech punchline

During the first trade war, Trump banned high-tech exports to China and sanctioned companies including China’s largest chipmaker SMIC, prompting its tech sector to become domestic-focused and self-sufficient.

Winston Ma, a former managing director for the China Investment Corporation (CIC), China’s sovereign wealth fund, said a major trigger for this shift was Trump’s ban on the sale of components to Chinese telecommunications firm ZTE in 2018.

That was “really scary from a China perspective, so they began to prepare. It was the start of that sort of defensive thinking,” added Ma.

Soon after, Xi urged the nation to boost self-reliance in science and tech, pushing China to build-up crucial industries including AI and space.

The result: Eight years ago, China had only four government procurement projects worth over $1.4 million, replacing foreign hardware and software with domestic alternatives. That number has exploded to 169 such projects this year, data show.

Despite these strides, chipmakers “definitely feel the tightening — these Chinese companies couldn’t supply to global clients and can’t have access to the latest chips,” said Ma.

Nazak Nikakhtar, a Commerce Department official under Trump who knows his advisers, said she expected Trump to be “much more aggressive about export control policies towards China.”

She anticipated “a significant expansion of the entity list,” that restricts exports to those on it to capture affiliates and business partners of listed companies.

Ma, the ex-CIC executive, said the restrictions will have an impact for some time as the U.S. expands the sanctions regime to overseas suppliers.

“I think the punchline is that the coming years are the most critical for this U.S.-China tech rivalry.”
…

RAMAT TRUMP, Golan Heights — Israeli residents of “Trump Heights” are welcoming the election of their namesake, hoping Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency will breathe new life into this tiny, remote settlement in the central Golan Heights.

During his first term, Trump became the first and only foreign leader to recognize Israel’s control of the Golan, which it seized from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war. Israel thanked him by rebranding this outpost after him.

But a large-scale influx of new residents never materialized after that 2019 ceremony, and just a couple dozen families live in Trump Heights, or “Ramat Trump” in Hebrew. Job opportunities are limited, and Israel’s more-than-yearlong war against Hezbollah militants in nearby Lebanon has added to the sense of isolation.

Trump’s election has inspired hope in the community that it will attract more members and also more funding for security improvements.

“Maybe it can raise more awareness and maybe some support to help here and help our kids here,” said Yarden Freimann, Trump Heights’ community manager.

Ori Kallner, head of the Golan’s regional council, showed off dozens of plots of land, replete with new asphalt roads, lampposts and utility lines, that residents have prepared for future housing developments.

“President Trump’s return to the White House definitely puts the town in the headlines,” he said.

Hanging on while war rages nearby

Kallner stood next to a metal statue of an eagle and a menorah, symbolizing the United States and Israel, as Israeli warplanes flew overhead. Two explosions from rockets fired from Lebanon punched the hills nearby, and just across the border in Lebanon, plumes of smoke rose into the air from Israeli airstrikes.

An enormous sign with the settlement’s name in Hebrew and English gleamed in the sun, while two large sunbaked metal flags of Israel and the United States were faded almost beyond recognition.

Surrounded by ashen ruins of villages fled by Syrians in the 1967 war, the town is perched above the Hula Valley, where Israel has amassed tanks, artillery and troops for its fight in Lebanon. Most towns in the valley have been evacuated. Trump Heights sends its kids to a makeshift daycare in a nearby settlement after the government shuttered all schools in the region in the wake of the October 1 invasion of Lebanon.

“We find ourselves hanging by our fingernails to be in our own community, not be evacuated, and on the other hand, we cannot work, we cannot send our kids to any kind of an education system,” said Freimann.

Trump Heights is only about 12 kilometers from Lebanon and Syria. Alerts for incoming fire gives residents about 30 seconds’ head start to get to a bomb shelter.

Trump broke with other leaders on the Golan Heights

Israel annexed the Golan, a strategic plateau overlooking northern Israel, in 1981 in a move that is not internationally recognized.

That changed in March 2019 when Trump, without notice, tweeted that the U.S. would “fully recognize” Israel’s control of the territory. His announcement drew widespread condemnation from the international community, which considers the Golan to be occupied Syrian territory and Israel’s settlements to be illegal. The Biden administration left the decision intact, but the U.S. remains the lone country to recognize the Israeli annexation.

Kallner said he hopes Trump will now persuade European countries to recognize Israeli sovereignty there.

According to Israeli figures, the Golan is home to about 50,000 people — roughly half of them Jewish Israelis and the other half Arab Druze, many of whom still consider themselves Syrians under occupation.

Israel has encouraged and promoted settlements in the Golan, and the Druze residents operate farms and a tourism and restaurant sector popular with Israelis. But the area has struggled to develop because of its remoteness, several hours from Israel’s economic center in Tel Aviv.

That economic hardship has only worsened during the war as the hospitality sector cratered. On July 28, a rocket killed 12 Druze children on a soccer field in the city of Majdal Shams, about 20 kilometers away. Israel invaded Lebanon months later.

In June 2019, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu led an inauguration ceremony for Trump Heights. The U.S. ambassador at the time, David Friedman, noted that the ceremony came days after Trump’s birthday and said: “I can’t think of a more appropriate and a more beautiful birthday present.”

As president, Trump was close with Netanyahu

The Golan recognition was among a series of diplomatic gifts that Trump delivered to Israel during his first term. They included recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving the American embassy to the contested city, and a series of diplomatic agreements with Arab countries known as the Abraham Accords.

He has vowed to bring peace to the tumultuous region during his second term, but has not said how.

Netanyahu enjoyed a close relationship with Trump during his first term but ran afoul of the former president when he congratulated Joe Biden on his 2020 victory. The Israeli prime minister announced Tuesday that he was one of the first foreign leaders to call the president-elect and congratulate him on his victory. An official in his office, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal communications, said aides were upbeat and giddy.

“Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!” the Israeli leader said in a statement. “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”

At Trump Heights, Kallner was optimistic too: “The Golan community is strong and resilient, and people that want to come and live here are from the same material. I believe we will overcome these challenging times and won’t stop growing.”
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WASHINGTON — A U.S. judge in Texas on Thursday ruled against President Joe Biden’s program offering a path to citizenship for certain immigrant spouses of U.S. citizens, a blow that could keep the program blocked through Biden’s final months in office.

U.S. District Judge J. Campbell Barker found the program exceeded Biden’s executive authority. The program offers a path to citizenship to about 500,000 immigrants who entered the U.S. illegally if they are married to U.S. citizens.

The initiative, known as Keeping Families Together, launched in August but was blocked days later by Barker, who left it frozen while he considered a legal challenge brought by Texas and a coalition of U.S. states with Republican attorneys general.

Biden, a Democrat, announced the program in June before dropping out of the presidential race and paving the way for Vice President Kamala Harris to face Republican Donald Trump, an immigration hard-liner.

Trump defeated Harris in Tuesday’s election and is expected to launch a wide-ranging immigration crackdown that would likely include rolling back Biden’s initiative for immigrant spouses, which the Trump campaign called a “mass amnesty” that would encourage illegal immigration.

Americans see immigration as the most pressing issue for Trump to address when he takes office in January, and a large majority believe he will order mass deportations of people living in the U.S. illegally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Thursday found.

The Biden administration could appeal Thursday’s court ruling. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 
…

A federal judge on Thursday threatened to hold former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in civil contempt if he failed to hand over his property to two former Georgia election workers who won a $148 million defamation judgment against him.

The valuables include a $5 million Manhattan condominium, a 1980 Mercedes-Benz once owned by actress Lauren Bacall, a jersey signed by baseball legend Joe DiMaggio and some cash accounts.

The women said that they received death threats and that their reputations were destroyed after Giuliani falsely accused them of ballot fraud during Donald Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign.

U.S. District Judge Lewis Liman had ordered Giuliani to surrender the property by October 29 to Ruby Freeman and her daughter Wandrea “Shaye” Moss. However, when representatives of the women went to the former mayor’s apartment last week, they found that most of its contents, including art and sports memorabilia, had been cleared out four weeks earlier, and that some items had been placed in storage on Long Island.

Liman warned Giuliani in court on Thursday that he expected the women to ask that the former mayor be held in contempt if he continued to refuse to relinquish his possessions.

“He’s not going to be in contempt if he’s made efforts and it’s impossible to comply with the order. But that’s the standard that he’s going to be held to,” Liman said.

Giuliani filed for bankruptcy after the multimillion-dollar judgment, but his case was dismissed when a federal judge found that Giuliani had not provided a clear depiction of his finances. The judge’s dismissal opened the doors for Giuliani’s creditors, including the election workers, to file against him.

Aaron Nathan, a lawyer for the women, said in court Thursday that attempts to take possession of Giuliani’s items have been met with “delay and then evasion” tactics. The lawyer said Giuliani was apparently moving around his assets and had opened new bank accounts.

Giuliani said in court that he had been “treated rudely” by the people trying to take his assets.

Giuliani’s lawyers have unsuccessfully argued that their client should not be required to turn over his possessions while he appeals the judgment.

“Every bit of property that they want is available if they are entitled to it,” Giuliani told reporters Thursday. “Now, the law says they’re not entitled to a lot of them. For example, they want my grandfather’s watch, which is 150 years old. That’s a bit of an heirloom. Usually, you don’t get those unless you’re involved in a political persecution. In fact, having me here today is like a political persecution.”

Giuliani, 80, who once enjoyed widespread popularity, has now been disbarred in New York and Washington.
…

LONDON — America’s allies in Europe are debating what Donald Trump’s win in Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election could mean for their security and prosperity amid concerns that the next four years may once again be characterized by a turbulent transatlantic alliance.

European interests

About 50 European leaders met in Budapest on Thursday for a summit of the European Political Community, which was set up in 2022 in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe must stand up for itself as it prepares for the next Trump presidency in the United States.

“There is a geopolitical situation where it is clear that we have two blocs: the United States of America on one side and China on the other, which above all seek their own interests,” Macron told the other European leaders.

“I think that our role here in the European Union is not to comment on the election of Donald Trump, to wonder if it is good or not. He was elected by the American people, and he is going to defend the interests of American people and that is legitimate and that is a good thing,” he said.

“The question is, are we ready to defend the interests of Europeans? That is the only question that we should ask ourselves. And for me, I think that is our priority,” he said.

NATO

The NATO alliance remains the bedrock of Europe’s security.

“The first implication for the alliance is how to continue support for Ukraine if there’s an expected drawdown of military assistance from the U.S.,” said Ed Arnold, senior research fellow for European security at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute.

“That can either be delivered through NATO — and there were some steps taken in this summer to sort of formalize those structures — but still significantly less than where it needs to be. It can also be done through the EU as well, which might increase slightly but probably not enough. Or it can be done bilaterally,” Arnold told VOA.

“I think actually the mechanisms are probably largely irrelevant. It’s more about the cost to individual nations, and that’s going to have to ramp up pretty quickly if they’re going to be able to have that impact,” he said.

Shortfall

Does Europe have the capacity to make up any shortfall from a U.S. withdrawal of support for Kyiv?

“Yes, but it would take a lot more effort than Europe is making now,” according to analyst Ian Bond of the Center for European Reform. “And I think there will be some, perhaps in Germany, perhaps elsewhere, who will say the Ukrainians are just going to have to put up with losing some of their territory.

“I think for the Baltic states, for the Nordic states, Poland — they will look at this and they will say, ‘Russia is going to be an existential threat to us if it is allowed to control Ukraine. And therefore we must step up our efforts,'” Bond said.

On the campaign trail, Trump said he would end the Russia-Ukraine war on day one, although he didn’t elaborate on how that would be achieved. In the past he has boasted of a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Peace deal?

Ukraine fears being forced into an unfavorable peace deal — and Europeans might change their calculations, said analyst Arnold of RUSI.

“There might be a bit of a worry where there’s some within Europe who say, “Why would we ramp up aid now if there’s going to be a negotiated settlement fairly soon? And I think the real risk for Europe as a whole — the EU but also NATO — is that actually the U.S. and Russia might start to do these negotiations without them,” Arnold said.

Leverage

There are deeper concerns that the U.S. might withdraw wider support for European security. Former government officials say Trump considered pulling the U.S. out of NATO altogether in his first term.

“One of the very few consistent beliefs that Trump has held to since he entered politics has been the idea that the United States is being taken advantage of by its allies,” said Jonathan Monten, a U.S. foreign policy analyst at University College London.

“At times, Trump threatened to withdraw from the alliance altogether but was ultimately held back. So the million-dollar question … is whether or not he will actually act on that threat,” Monten told VOA.

“I think he likes the idea that he’s keeping foreign allies as well as adversaries guessing as to his ultimate intentions. I think he sees that as a source of leverage, as a source of power,” he said.

NATO’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, who took over the role October 1, has struck a more upbeat tone, praising Trump for getting allies to spend more on defense.

“When he was president, he was the one in NATO who stimulated us to move over the 2% [of GDP spending target],” Rutte told reporters in Budapest on Thursday.

Tariffs

It’s not only security fears that are haunting European capitals. America’s allies could also face economic turbulence when Trump enters the White House.

“The [Trump] claims of putting about 60% or more tariffs on all imports from China will have to have a major disruptive impact on world trade, and there will be repercussions on the EU, on Europe, on the U.K. and elsewhere. We can expect also tariffs on imports from the EU as well,” said Garret Martin, co-director of the Transatlantic Policy Center at American University in Washington.

“One element that I think is going to be absolutely critical for Europe, for the EU, is to work on protecting its unity and its unanimity. Trump, I think, is likely to try to adopt a divide and rule approach,” Martin said.

Unpredictability

Trump’s unpredictability means there is little Europe’s leaders can do to prepare, said Monten.

“They can try flattery,” he said. “They can try to offer him deals that benefit him personally, but it’s unclear what exactly they would have to offer. They can offer him the kind of stature or respect that comes along with a big grand summit or trade deal. He seems to crave that kind of respect.

“But when it comes to actual tangible concrete results, it is unclear what levers they have either to threaten him with or to cajole him with,” Monten told VOA.
…

Allies in Europe are debating what Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election could mean for their security and economy. Trump’s first term in office was characterized by often turbulent relations with EU and NATO partners. As Henry Ridgwell reports, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has amplified Europe’s concerns over the transatlantic alliance.
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U.S. President Joe Biden, long a political adversary of President-elect Donald Trump, declared Thursday that Trump’s election this week to a second nonconsecutive four-year term in the White House was “fair” and “transparent,” and that there would be a peaceful transfer of power on January 20.

Biden, speaking to dozens of his White House aides in the Rose Garden, said he accepted that Trump had defeated his vice president, Kamala Harris.

“The will of the people always prevail,” Biden said, “As I’ve said many times, you can’t love your country only when you win. And you can’t love your neighbor only when you agree.”

But Biden, a Democratic political figure for five decades, lamented what might have been — for the vice president he picked to run alongside him in 2020 to succeed him. He praised her campaign as “inspiring” and said she “gave her whole heart and effort.”

“We lost this battle,” Biden said. “Setbacks are unavoidable, but giving up is unforgivable. We’re going to be okay, but we need to stay engaged. We need to keep going. And above all, we need to keep the faith.”

Biden described his single term as the U.S. leader as “an historic presidency” that will be “changing people’s lives” for years to come, especially infrastructure improvements throughout that the country that he pushed to congressional approval during the first two years of his presidency.

Biden, who ousted Trump from power in the 2020 election, said in a seven-minute address that he is leaving his Republican political rival and now his successor “the strongest economy in the world.”

While economic numerical standards support that assessment, voter exit polling showed to a significant degree that Trump supporters disapproved of Biden and Harris’ handling of the American economy, the world’s largest, because rising consumer prices throughout their time in office sharply squeezed household budgets.

Trump vowed during his campaign, without saying how, that he would bring down inflation. He has proposed new tax cuts during his upcoming administration, which would put more money in the pockets of consumers, particularly the wealthiest, and corporate coffers, but could also balloon the country’s long-term national debt that already totals nearly $36 trillion.

Biden called Trump on Wednesday to congratulate him and invited him to the White House soon to discuss their handover of power.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence said Thursday that if Trump wants U.S. intelligence briefings, he will get them. An ODNI spokesperson said the agency “is acting consistent with the tradition, in place since 1952, of providing intelligence briefings to the president-elect,” although it was not known whether Trump has made such a request.

Key appointments

Meanwhile, Trump is moving quickly to consider appointments to key positions in his new White House administration and could name some choices within days.

He has been huddling with aides at his oceanside Mar-a-Lago retreat in Florida to mull over his options.

Even before the election, transition chiefs Howard Lutnick and Linda McMahon met with some potential candidates for top jobs, either in the White House or to head the government’s Cabinet-level departments and an array of other agencies.

Trump could name the world’s richest man, Tesla chief executive Elon Musk, a staunch advocate and campaign donor for Trump, to a new position to find government inefficiencies and curb spending excesses.

Another major Trump political supporter, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a scion of a U.S. Democratic Party dynasty, could be named to oversee health issues, even though he has rebuffed COVID vaccinations as unneeded.

Several Wall Street financiers are under consideration for top-level economic positions, and Trump aides say that some Republican senators may be tapped to head Cabinet-level agencies.

Trump aides also have prepared a long list of possible executive orders and regulation reversals for him to sign on his first day in office, to end policies that have been adopted by Biden over the last four years.

Biden was running for reelection against Trump until his disastrous debate performance against Trump in June and falling poll numbers forced him from the contest. Biden quickly endorsed Harris.

In a statement Wednesday, Biden praised Harris for her campaign, saying, “She’s been a tremendous partner and public servant full of integrity, courage and character.

“Under extraordinary circumstances, she stepped up and led a historic campaign that embodied what’s possible when guided by a strong moral compass and a clear vision for a nation that is more free, more just and full of more opportunities for all Americans,” Biden said.

VOA National Security Correspondent Jeff Seldin contributed to this report.
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Washington — Donald Trump ‘s impending return to the White House means he’ll want to stand up an entirely new administration from the one that served under President Joe Biden. His team is also pledging that the second won’t look much like the first one Trump established after his 2016 victory.

The president-elect now has a 75-day transition period to build out his team before Inauguration Day arrives on Jan. 20. One top item on the to-do list: filling around 4,000 government positions with political appointees, people who are specifically tapped for their jobs by Trump’s team.

That includes everyone from the secretary of state and other heads of Cabinet departments to those selected to serve part time on boards and commissions. Around 1,200 of those presidential appointments require Senate confirmation, which should be easier with the Senate now shifting to Republican control.

Here’s what to expect:

What will the transition look like?

Though the turnover in the new administration will be total, Trump will be familiar with what he needs to accomplish. He built an entirely new administration for his first term and has definite ideas on what to do differently this time.

He’s already floated some names.

Trump said at his victory party early Wednesday that former presidential hopeful and anti-vaccination activist Robert Kennedy Jr. will be tapped to “help make America healthy again,” adding that “we’re going to let him go to it.” Ahead of the election, Trump didn’t reject Kennedy’s calls to end fluoridated water. Trump has also pledged to make South African-born Elon Musk, a vocal supporter of the Trump campaign, a secretary of federal “cost-cutting,” and the Tesla CEO has suggested he can find trillions of dollars in government spending to wipe out.

The transition is not just about filling jobs. Most presidents-elect also receive daily or near-daily intelligence briefings during the transition.

In 2008, outgoing President George W. Bush personally briefed President-elect Barack Obama on U.S. covert operations. When Trump was preparing to take office in 2016, Obama’s national security adviser, Susan Rice, briefed Michael Flynn, her designated successor in the new administration. In 2020, Trump’s legal challenges of the election’s results delayed the start of the transition process for weeks, though, and presidential briefings with Biden didn’t begin until Nov. 30.

Who is helping Trump through the process?

Trump’s transition is being led primarily by friends and family, including Kennedy Jr. and former Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard, as well as the president-elect’s adult sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, and his running mate, JD Vance. Transition co-chairs are Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick and Linda McMahon, the former wrestling executive who previously led the Small Business Administration during Trump’s first term.

Lutnick said this year’s operation is “about as different as possible” from the 2016 effort, which was first led by Chris Christie. After he won eight years ago, Trump fired Christie, tossed out plans the former New Jersey governor had made and gave the job of running the transition to then-Vice President-elect Mike Pence.

At the start of his first term, Trump assembled an original Cabinet that featured some more mainstream Republicans and business leaders who ultimately disappointed, or broke publicly with him, or both. This time, Trump has promised to value loyalty as much as possible — a philosophy that may ensure he makes picks that are more closely aligned to his ideological beliefs and bombastic professional style.

Unlike the campaign of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump’s team didn’t sign any pre-Election Day transition agreements with the General Services Administration, which essentially acts as the federal government’s landlord. He has therefore already missed deadlines to agree with GSA on logistical matters like office space and tech support and with the White House on access to agencies, including documents, employees and facilities.

New transition rules

In 2020, Trump argued that widespread voter fraud — which hadn’t actually occurred — cost him the election, delaying the start of the transition from his outgoing administration to Biden’s incoming one for weeks.

Four years ago, the Trump-appointed head of the GSA, Emily Murphy, determined that she had no legal standing to determine a winner in the presidential race because Trump was still challenging the results in court. That held up funding and cooperation for the transition.

It wasn’t until Trump’s efforts to subvert election results had collapsed across key states that Murphy agreed to formally ” ascertain a president-elect ” and begin the transition process. Trump eventually posted on social media that his administration would cooperate.

To prevent that kind of holdup in future transitions, the Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 mandates that the transition process begin five days after the election — even if the winner is still in dispute. That is designed to avoid long delays and means that “an ‘affirmative ascertainment’ by the GSA is no longer a prerequisite for gaining transition support services,” according to agency guidelines on the new rules.

The uncertainty stretched even longer after the 2000 election, when five weeks elapsed before the Supreme Court settled the contested election between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore. That left Bush with about half the usual amount of time to manage transitioning the government from the outgoing Clinton administration. That ultimately led to questions about national security gaps that may have contributed to the U.S. being underprepared for the Sept. 11 attacks the following year.
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In a historic shift, Muslim and Arab Americans broke with two decades of Democratic loyalty, splitting most of their votes between President-elect Donald Trump and third-party candidates in Tuesday’s presidential election

The exodus, fueled by anger over the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza, helped Trump win key battleground states as he defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the White House.

Less than half of the Muslim voters who voted backed Harris, according to an exit poll of more than 1,000 voters by the Council on American Islamic Relations. Most voted for either a third-party candidate or Trump, said Robert McCaw, CAIR’s director of government affairs.

“This is the first time in the past in more than 20 years that the Muslim community has been split between three candidates,” McCaw said in an interview, with VOA.

CAIR’s exit poll findings are set for release on Thursday.

The shift in the Muslim vote echoed among Arab American voters, who had backed Democratic presidential candidates 2-to-1 for more than two decades, said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute.

“And then you come to this election where Gaza took a toll and caused a great deal of dissatisfaction among demographic groups in the community that I wouldn’t have expected it to have that degree of impact,” Zogby told VOA. “What they saw happening in Gaza impacted them quite profoundly.”

There are an estimated 3.7 million Arab Americans, most of them Christian, and a similar number of Muslim Americans.

The voter revolt was strongest in Michigan’s Arab strongholds of Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, and Hamtramck.

In Dearborn, where more than 55% of the residents are of Middle Eastern descent, Trump won more than 42% of the vote, up from 30% four years ago. Harris received just 36% from a community that gave President Joe Biden nearly 70% of its vote.

In nearby Hamtramck, the first majority-Muslim city in the U.S., Trump picked up 43% of the vote, up from just 13% in 2020. Harris secured 46%, down from the 85% that Biden notched four years ago.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein, a staunch critic of Israel’s war in Gaza, pulled less than 20% of the vote in the two towns.

Samraa Luqman, a Dearborn-based realtor and political activist, said the shift was “absolutely astounding.”

“It’s really, really, wow,” said Luqman, who campaigned for Biden last fall before switching sides over Gaza.

The last time Muslim Americans overwhelmingly voted for a Republican was in 2000 when George W. Bush received the community’s support.

That changed after the attacks of 9/11. In recent years, however, some conservative Muslims started to drift back to the Republican Party over cultural issues.

Anger over Gaza solidified the rightward shift, Luqman said.

“It really put the nail in the coffin for the Democrats for this election,” she said.

Yet some experts urge caution in interpreting Harris’ lackluster performance among Muslim voters. AP VoteCast showed the vice president captured 63% of Muslim votes overall, just slightly below Biden’s 2020 showing, said Youssef Chouhoud, a professor at Christopher Newport University.

“While Dearborn is a unique case, I do think we need to wait and see what the larger trends are for Muslim voters nationwide,” added Saher Selod, director of research at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU).

Still, Trump made noticeable inroads. After winning 35% of the Muslim vote in 2020, he actively courted Muslim and Arab voters this year, promising to end the Gaza conflict. Last week, he visited Hamtramck, whose Muslim mayor had endorsed him.

“His outreach didn’t go unnoticed,” said Asm “Kamal” Rahman, a Bangladeshi American who ran for mayor in 2021, and voted for Trump.

Luqman said Trump’s message of peace resonated with many voters.

“This year, he stated several times, and it became kind of like a model, that he wanted to stop the war, stop the war, stop the war,” Luqman said.

While Gaza was the No. 1 issue among Muslim Americans, kitchen table issues also pushed many away from Harris, according to several activists and voters.

“I want people in office that are going to focus on solving the problems of Americans here at home, first and foremost,” said Nagi Almudhegi, a data analyst in Dearborn.

An ISPU survey over the summer found that the economy was the No. 3 issue for most Muslim voters, after the Gaza conflict and ending foreign wars.

“They’re feeling the pinch as much as anyone else, and so I think that’s a major issue as far as just very specific sort of interests and concerns of the Muslim community,” said Chad Haines, co-director of the Center of Muslim Experience in the U.S. at Arizona State University.

Haines, a Muslim convert who voted for Harris, said the election divided the Muslim American community between those who wanted to send Democrats a message over Gaza, and others who feared a Trump return.

“So … one camp is happy that … the Democrats have taken, in a sense, a hit, and another is deeply concerned about the next four years,” Haines in an interview.
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U.S. allies in Asia are congratulating Donald Trump on his decisive victory in Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, but many in Asia also worry about what the return of his “America First” foreign policy means for their countries, as VOA’s Bill Gallo reports from Seoul, South Korea.
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Taipei, Taiwan — Following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s sweeping victory, Chinese netizens said they expect the U.S. to increase trade tensions with China while analysts say Washington’s efforts to counter China’s expansion might weaken under a second Trump administration.

Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump has vowed to impose tariffs, between 60% to 200%, on Chinese products on several occasions. During an interview with Fox News on February 4, Trump said he would impose more than 60% tariffs on Chinese imports but emphasized he wasn’t going to start a trade war with China.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said he would tax China at 150% to 200% if Beijing decides to “go into Taiwan.”

Some Chinese internet users expect Trump to follow through on the campaign promise to impose huge tariffs on Chinese products but have mixed views about how the tariffs will affect the Chinese economy and their livelihoods.

Amid China’s ongoing economic downturn, some Chinese social media users worry that Trump’s return to the White House could exacerbate the economic pressure on many Chinese citizens.  

“It’s hard to look at Trump’s victory with pure joy, because he is going to launch a trade war with China when he comes into power, and our economy will suffer further,” a Chinese netizen in the capital, Beijing, wrote on the popular microblogging site Weibo, which is similar to X.

“How will the lives of normal citizens change? I’m feeling a sense of unease about the unpredictability of the future,” the person added.

Others say the 60% tariff on Chinese imports to the United States that Trump proposed during the campaign will push Chinese companies to redirect exports from the U.S. to other markets, including Southeast Asia, South America and Europe.

“Trump’s approach of being [an] enemy with the whole world may make some left-wing regimes in Europe disappointed, and this development may lead to a de-escalation of trade tensions between China and Europe,” Niu Chun-bao, chairman of Shanghai Wanji Asset Management Co., posted on Weibo.

Some Chinese netizens predict the immense pressure that Trump is likely to impose on Beijing will enhance China’s domestic unity, and his transactional approach to resolving tensions may offer more room for negotiation and bargaining.

“As long as there are no major internal problems, no external pressure can overwhelm China. So, I think the overall situation may still be positive,” another netizen in the eastern Chinese province of Shandong wrote on Weibo.

‘Significant hit’

While Chinese netizens hold mixed views about the potential tariffs that Trump has vowed to impose on Chinese imports, analysts say this move would be “a significant hit” to the Chinese economy, which has been troubled by an ongoing property crisis, high youth unemployment and weak domestic demand.

If Trump decides to impose 60% tariffs on all Chinese products imported to the U.S., “This would be a return to a big-picture trade war rather than a narrow tech war. And it would have a much deeper impact on China’s export-driven growth potential because he is hitting the entirety of China’s exports to the U.S.,” Jacob Gunter, an expert on China’s political economy at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, told VOA by phone.

In Gunter’s view, Trump may use the tariffs to force China to make more concessions on trade. After imposing up to 25% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods imported to the U.S. in 2019, the Trump administration and China reached a trade deal that saw Beijing promise to increase purchases of American goods to at least $200 billion.

“We could see a return to the deal-making Donald Trump, where he wants to strike a deal and be viewed as this great negotiator, because that’s who he imagines himself to be,” Gunter said, adding that it remains to be seen how Trump might position the tariffs during his second term.

Other experts say one thing to look out for is what concessions Trump might make during a potential negotiation with China.

“One big question is whether Trump will soften the position the Biden administration has maintained on Taiwan in exchange for more exports and more U.S. investment into China,” Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, told VOA by phone.

The Trump campaign has not yet responded to a VOA request for comment regarding his administration’s trade plans with China once he takes office in January.

In response to potential tariffs that the incoming Trump administration could impose, analysts say China could impose counter-tariffs on U.S. agricultural products from states controlled by the Republican Party.

“Economic and political tensions between the two countries will inevitably rise, while the global economy and global supply chains will be thrown into chaos,” Zhiqun Zhu, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at Bucknell University, told VOA in a written response.

Weakened coordination with allies

While trade and economic tensions between China and the U.S. are expected to rise during Trump’s second term, Zhu said Trump’s return to power may also be good news for Beijing, as Washington’s efforts to counter China’s expansion of its influence in the Indo-Pacific region may be weakened due to Trump’s isolationist approach in international affairs.

“Trump is more likely to push ahead with his agenda without consulting allies and partners or seeking their support, and this might be good news for China,” Zhu told VOA.

“China can take a ‘divide-and-conquer’ strategy to dilute the effectiveness of Trump’s foreign policy, especially the Indo-Pacific strategy, and we may see improvements in China’s relations with its neighbors, particularly Japan, South Korea and India, as well as U.S. allies in other parts of the world,” Zhu added.

In his view, bilateral relations between China and the U.S. will be dominated by competition under the second Trump administration, but there is also room for diplomacy and cooperation.

“Competition itself is not necessarily harmful, because if the two countries can manage the competition in a healthy way, both sides can benefit,” Zhu said.  
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BEIJING — China’s outbound shipments grew at the fastest pace in over two years in October as factories rushed inventory to major export markets in anticipation of further tariffs from the U.S. and the European Union, as the threat of a two-front trade war looms.

With Donald Trump being elected as the next U.S. president, his pre-election pledge to impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% is likely to spur a shift in stocks to warehouses in China’s No.1 export market.

Trump’s tariff threat is rattling Chinese factory owners and officials, with some $500 billion worth of shipments annually on the line, while trade tensions with the EU, which last year took $466 billion worth of Chinese goods, have intensified.

Export momentum has been one bright spot for a struggling economy in China as household and business confidence has been dented by a prolonged property market debt crisis.

Outbound shipments from China grew 12.7% year-on-year last month, customs data showed on Thursday, blowing past a forecast 5.2% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 2.4% rise in September.

Imports fell 2.3%, compared with expectations for a drop of 1.5%, turning negative for the first time in four months.

“We can anticipate a lot of front-loading going into the fourth quarter, before the pressure kicks in come 2025,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“I think it is mainly down to Trump. The threat is becoming more real.”

China’s exports to the U.S. increased an annual 8.1% last month, while outbound shipments to Europe jumped 12.7% over the same period.

“We expect shipments to stay strong in the coming months,” Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. “Any potential drag from Trump tariffs may not materialize until the second half of next year.”

“Trump’s return could create a short-term boost to Chinese exports as U.S. importers increase their purchases to get ahead of the tariffs,” she added.

Trade data from South Korea and Taiwan pointed to cooling global demand, while German manufacturers have also reported they are struggling to find buyers overseas, leading analysts to conclude Chinese producers are slashing prices to find buyers or simply moving stocks out of China.

An official factory activity survey for October showed Chinese factories were still struggling to find buyers overseas.

“If the PMI new export sub-index has been going down, and the export figure goes up, I think it is safe to say it’s more of an inventory shift,” said Dan Wang, a Chinese economist based in Shanghai.

Exporters also had help from a positive turn in the weather, enabling them to send out delayed orders.

Typhoon Bebinca brought Shanghai to a standstill for one day in September, causing severe disruption to one of China’s busiest ports. In the eastern province of Jiangsu a violent tornado killed at least 10 people and several other regions suffered heavy rain and strong winds, disrupting production.

Natural disasters cost China 230 billion yuan ($32.23 billion) in direct economic losses over the third quarter, according to data from the Ministry of Emergency Management.

Economists have cautioned Chinese policymakers against becoming too reliant on outbound shipments for growth and urged officials to introduce more stimulus.

Analysts are now turning their attention to a $1.4 trillion fiscal package officials are likely to sign off on this week, which they expect to stabilize local government and property developers’ balance sheets and ease the strains that have weighed on consumption.

China’s trade surplus came in at $95.27 billion last month, up from $81.71 billion in September.
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