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new york — Global stock markets mostly fell Monday in jittery holiday trading ahead of a potentially tumultuous 2025 that will see Donald Trump return to the White House. 

Wall Street’s three main indices slumped to end the day, adding to losses Friday that ended Wall Street’s usual holiday-period “Santa Claus rally.” 

“We can’t drive major conclusions in a holiday-shortened and thin-trading-volume week, but last week’s price action looked pretty close to the narrative of rotation from tech to non-tech stocks that many investors expect to be the theme of next year,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. 

U.S. tech stocks had led the losses Friday, with Elon Musk’s electric car giant Tesla shedding around 5% and AI chipmaker Nvidia off around 2%. 

Shares in Tesla fell 3.3% Monday, although Nvidia shares nudged higher. 

Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare said there was no news catalyst for the weakness. 

“The selling interest, then, has profit-taking activity written on it with a P.S. presumably of rebalancing interest,” he said.  

But “there isn’t a rebalancing push in the stock market this morning. The weakness is broad-based,” he said.

Weighing on sentiment were worries about slower-than-hoped-for U.S. interest rate cuts and possible higher import tariffs once Trump is inaugurated on January 20. 

Yields on U.S. government debt dipped Monday but have pushed higher at the longer-dated maturities on worries about higher inflation and interest rates, with the yield on 10-year bonds hitting 4.63% recently. 

“If yields continue to hold at these levels, or push higher toward 5.0%, then this will be a strong headwind for equity prices,” said Trade Nation analyst David Morrison. 

This comes as investors choose the relative safety of a near-guaranteed 5% return on funds in U.S. Treasuries, compared with the uncertainty of stocks, he noted. 

In Europe, the main indices in Frankfurt, London and Paris all finished lower. Trading wrapped up for the year in Frankfurt, with the DAX rising 18.8% for the year, including breaching the 20,000 level for the first time. 

In Asia, Tokyo closed down almost 1% Monday, its last day of trading until January 6. 

Nissan dropped as much as 6.7% on worries about its possible merger with fellow Japanese automaker Honda. 

Overall, the Nikkei 225 index gained almost 20% in 2024, finally surpassing the high seen before Japan’s asset bubble burst in the 1990s. 

In Seoul, Jeju Air shares fell as much as 15% after one of its planes crashed in South Korea on Sunday, killing 179 people. 

Another Jeju Air flight had to return after encountering a landing gear problem Monday, the airline said. 

Korean authorities ordered an inspection of all Boeing 737-800 aircraft operated by the country’s carriers. 

Shares in Boeing fell 5.3% as trading got under way in New York — but recovered slightly afterward. 

South Korea was also hit with further political turmoil, with authorities issuing an arrest warrant for suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol after his declaration of martial law.
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A different approach to energy is at the center of President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to bring down the cost of living for Americans. But as VOA’s Congressional Correspondent Katherine Gypson reports, Trump’s plans could be complicated by a complex global interdependence on oil and gas supplies.
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The emergence of generative artificial intelligence tools that allow people to efficiently produce novel and detailed online reviews with almost no work has put merchants, service providers and consumers in uncharted territory, watchdog groups and researchers say. 

Phony reviews have long plagued many popular consumer websites, such as Amazon and Yelp. They are typically traded on private social media groups between fake review brokers and businesses willing to pay. Sometimes, such reviews are initiated by businesses that offer customers incentives such as gift cards for positive feedback. 

But AI-infused text generation tools, popularized by OpenAI’s ChatGPT, enable fraudsters to produce reviews faster and in greater volume, according to tech industry experts. 

The deceptive practice, which is illegal in the U.S., is carried out year-round but becomes a bigger problem for consumers during the holiday shopping season, when many people rely on reviews to help them purchase gifts. 

Where fakes are appearing 

Fake reviews are found across a wide range of industries, from e-commerce, lodging and restaurants to services such as home repairs, medical care and piano lessons. 

The Transparency Company, a tech company and watchdog group that uses software to detect fake reviews, said it started to see AI-generated reviews show up in large numbers in mid-2023 and they have multiplied ever since. 

For a report released this month, the Transparency Company analyzed 73 million reviews in three sectors: home, legal and medical services. Nearly 14% of the reviews were likely fake, and the company expressed a “high degree of confidence” that 2.3 million reviews were partly or entirely AI-generated. 

“It’s just a really, really good tool for these review scammers,” said Maury Blackman, an investor and adviser to tech startups, who reviewed the Transparency Company’s work and is set to lead the organization starting Jan. 1. 

In August, software company DoubleVerify said it was observing a “significant increase” in mobile phone and smart TV apps with reviews crafted by generative AI. The reviews often were used to deceive customers into installing apps that could hijack devices or run ads constantly, the company said. 

The following month, the Federal Trade Commission sued the company behind an AI writing tool and content generator called Rytr, accusing it of offering a service that could pollute the marketplace with fraudulent reviews. 

The FTC, which this year banned the sale or purchase of fake reviews, said some of Rytr’s subscribers used the tool to produce hundreds and perhaps thousands of reviews for garage door repair companies, sellers of “replica” designer handbags and other businesses. 

Likely on prominent online sites, too 

Max Spero, CEO of AI detection company Pangram Labs, said the software his company uses has detected with almost certainty that some AI-generated appraisals posted on Amazon bubbled up to the top of review search results because they were so detailed and appeared to be well thought out. 

But determining what is fake or not can be challenging. External parties can fall short because they don’t have “access to data signals that indicate patterns of abuse,” Amazon has said. 

Pangram Labs has done detection for some prominent online sites, which Spero declined to name because of nondisclosure agreements. He said he evaluated Amazon and Yelp independently. 

Many of the AI-generated comments on Yelp appeared to be posted by individuals who were trying to publish enough reviews to earn an “Elite” badge, which is intended to let users know they should trust the content, Spero said. 

The badge provides access to exclusive events with local business owners. Fraudsters also want it so their Yelp profiles can look more realistic, said Kay Dean, a former federal criminal investigator who runs a watchdog group called Fake Review Watch. 

To be sure, just because a review is AI-generated doesn’t necessarily mean it’s fake. Some consumers might experiment with AI tools to generate content that reflects their genuine sentiments. Some non-native English speakers say they turn to AI to make sure they use accurate language in the reviews they write. 

“It can help with reviews [and] make it more informative if it comes out of good intentions,” said Michigan State University marketing professor Sherry He, who has researched fake reviews. She says tech platforms should focus on the behavioral patterns of bad actors, which prominent platforms already do, instead of discouraging legitimate users from turning to AI tools. 

What companies are doing 

Prominent companies are developing policies for how AI-generated content fits into their systems for removing phony or abusive reviews. Some already employ algorithms and investigative teams to detect and take down fake reviews but are giving users some flexibility to use AI. 

Spokespeople for Amazon and Trustpilot, for example, said they would allow customers to post AI-assisted reviews as long as they reflect their genuine experience. Yelp has taken a more cautious approach, saying its guidelines require reviewers to write their own copy. 

“With the recent rise in consumer adoption of AI tools, Yelp has significantly invested in methods to better detect and mitigate such content on our platform,” the company said in a statement. 

The Coalition for Trusted Reviews, which Amazon, Trustpilot, employment review site Glassdoor, and travel sites Tripadvisor, Expedia and Booking.com launched last year, said that even though deceivers may put AI to illicit use, the technology also presents “an opportunity to push back against those who seek to use reviews to mislead others.” 

“By sharing best practice and raising standards, including developing advanced AI detection systems, we can protect consumers and maintain the integrity of online reviews,” the group said. 

The FTC’s rule banning fake reviews, which took effect in October, allows the agency to fine businesses and individuals who engage in the practice. Tech companies hosting such reviews are shielded from the penalty because they are not legally liable under U.S. law for the content that outsiders post on their platforms. 

Tech companies, including Amazon, Yelp and Google, have sued fake review brokers they accuse of peddling counterfeit reviews on their sites. The companies say their technology has blocked or removed a huge swath of suspect reviews and suspicious accounts. However, some experts say they could be doing more. 

“Their efforts thus far are not nearly enough,” said Dean of Fake Review Watch. “If these tech companies are so committed to eliminating review fraud on their platforms, why is it that I, one individual who works with no automation, can find hundreds or even thousands of fake reviews on any given day?” 

Spotting fake reviews 

Consumers can try to spot fake reviews by watching out for a few possible warning signs, according to researchers. Overly enthusiastic or negative reviews are red flags. Jargon that repeats a product’s full name or model number is another potential giveaway. 

When it comes to AI, research conducted by Balazs Kovacs, a Yale University professor of organization behavior, has shown that people can’t tell the difference between AI-generated and human-written reviews. Some AI detectors may also be fooled by shorter texts, which are common in online reviews, the study said. 

However, there are some “AI tells” that online shoppers and service seekers should keep it mind. Panagram Labs says reviews written with AI are typically longer, highly structured and include “empty descriptors,” such as generic phrases and attributes. The writing also tends to include cliches like “the first thing that struck me” and “game-changer.”
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WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said her agency would need to start taking “extraordinary measures,” or special accounting maneuvers intended to prevent the nation from hitting the debt ceiling, as early as January 14, in a letter sent to congressional leaders Friday afternoon. 

“Treasury expects to hit the statutory debt ceiling between January 14 and January 23,” Yellen wrote in the letter addressed to House and Senate leadership, at which point extraordinary measures would be used to prevent the government from breaching the nation’s debt ceiling — which has been suspended until January 1. 

The department has deployed the “extraordinary measures” before to keep the government operating. But once those measures run out, the government risks defaulting on its debt unless lawmakers and the president agree to lift the limit on the U.S. government’s ability to borrow. 

“I respectfully urge Congress to act to protect the full faith and credit of the United States,” she said. 

The news comes after President Joe Biden signed a bill into law last week that averted a government shutdown but did not include President-elect Donald Trump’s core debt demand to raise or suspend the nation’s debt limit. Congress approved the bill only after fierce internal debate among Republicans over how to handle Trump’s demand. “Anything else is a betrayal of our country,” Trump said in a statement. 

After a protracted debate in summer 2023 over how to fund the government, policymakers crafted the Fiscal Responsibility Act, which included suspending the nation’s $31.4 trillion borrowing authority until January 1, 2025. 

Notably however, Yellen said, the debt is projected to temporarily decrease on January 2 because of a scheduled redemption of nonmarketable securities held by a federal trust fund associated with Medicare payments. As a result, “Treasury does not expect that it will be necessary to start taking extraordinary measures on January 2 to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations,” she said. 

The federal debt, which ballooned across both Republican and Democratic administrations, is now roughly $36 trillion. The spike in inflation after the coronavirus pandemic increased government borrowing costs; as a result, debt service next year will exceed spending on national security. 

Republicans, who will have full control of the White House, House and Senate in the new year, have plans to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and other priorities but debate over how to pay for them.
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Rio de Janeiro, Brazil — Authorities in Brazil said Friday they are probing Chinese auto giant BYD and one of its contractors for suspected “trafficking” of Chinese workers building a factory in the South American country. 

Federal prosecutors in Brazil are weighing possible criminal action after labor inspectors found 163 Chinese workers “in slave-like conditions” at the construction site in the northeast state of Bahia, a government statement said. 

The workers, employed by BYD contractor Jinjiang Open Engineering, were viewed as “victims of international trafficking for the purpose of labor exploitation,” said the statement. 

A Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman in Beijing, Mao Ning, said: “We have noted the relevant reports… and are currently verifying the situation.” 

She added that Beijing “attaches great importance to protecting laborers’ legitimate rights and interests, and has always required Chinese enterprises to operate in line with the law and regulations.” 

On Thursday, BYD and Jinjiang were quizzed by Brazilian government ministries, which said “the companies committed to collaborate in protecting the rescued workers.” 

Allegations denied 

Brazilian officials on Monday said it had found the labor violations at the site, which is being built to be BYD’s largest electric car plant outside of Asia. 

Bahia’s regional ministry for works (MPT) ordered construction be suspended at part of the site. 

Inspections carried out since November found “degrading working conditions” at the site, including beds in workers’ accommodation lacking mattresses, and one bathroom per 31 workers, an MPT statement said. 

The workers, who spent long hours under Brazil’s sun, had “visible signs of skin damage,” the statement said. 

The MPT added that it suspected “forced labor,” with workers’ passports confiscated and their employer “retaining 60 percent of their salary.” 

After the allegations were made public, BYD’s Brazilian subsidiary said it had broken its contract with the Jinjiang subsidiary responsible for work on the site. It added that it had sent the 163 workers to stay in hotels. 

Jinjiang on Thursday — in a statement issued before the online hearing with Brazilian authorities — denied the slavery allegation. 

The company said the accusations “seriously damaged the dignity of Chinese people” and claimed it “made our staff feel seriously insulted and that their human rights have been violated.” 

A Jinjiang representative told AFP on Friday that the company would hold a press conference in Brazil. 
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The World Bank raised on Thursday its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that subdued household and business confidence, along with headwinds in the property sector, would keep weighing it down next year.

The world’s second-biggest economy has struggled this year, mainly due to a property crisis and tepid domestic demand. An expected hike in U.S. tariffs on its goods when U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January may also negatively impact China’s growth.

“Addressing challenges in the property sector, strengthening social safety nets, and improving local government finances, will be essential to unlocking a sustained recovery,” Mara Warwick, the World Bank’s country director for China, said.

“It is important to balance short-term support to growth with long-term structural reforms,” she said in a statement.

Thanks to the effect of recent policy easing and near-term export strength, the World Bank sees China’s gross domestic product growth at 4.9% this year, up from its June forecast of 4.8%.

Beijing set a growth target of “around 5%” this year, a goal it says it is confident of achieving.

Although growth for 2025 is also expected to fall to 4.5%, that is still higher than the World Bank’s earlier forecast of 4.1%.

Slower household income growth and the negative wealth effect from lower home prices are expected to weigh on consumption into 2025, the Bank said.

To revive growth, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue a record $411 billion in special treasury bonds next year, Reuters reported this week.

The figures will not be officially unveiled until the annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, in March 2025, and could still change before then.

While the housing regulator will continue efforts to stem further declines in China’s real estate market next year, the World Bank said a turnaround in the sector was not anticipated until late 2025.

China’s middle class has expanded significantly since the 2010s, encompassing 32% of the population in 2021, but World Bank estimates suggest about 55% remain “economically insecure,” underscoring the need to generate opportunities for citizens.
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BEIJING/TOKYO — Talks between China and Japan’s foreign ministers in Beijing have paved way for Japan to host China’s foreign affairs chief next year, and mutual agreement to hold a security dialog as soon as possible, Japan said on Wednesday. 

No details were given for when the events will take place but Japan’s Takeshi Iwaya told reporters after his meeting and a working lunch with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that both agreed on continued high-level talks, including potentially an economic dialog during the 2025 visit. 

The one-day visit is Iwaya’s first to the Chinese capital since becoming Japan’s foreign minister in October, to discuss thorny issues with his country’s largest trading partner. 

It follows an agreement between leaders of both countries to work towards a mutually beneficial strategic relationship. 

Ties between the neighbors — trade partners with close economic and investment ties but rivals in security and territorial claims — are complicated with long-standing geopolitical disagreements and historical wartime sensitivities. 

Iwaya raised several security concerns, urging China to take “necessary action” including removing a buoy Japan had identified and believe was installed by China in the exclusive economic zone near one of Japan’s southernmost islands. 

“I also expressed my serious concerns about the situation in the East China Sea…and the increasing activity of the Chinese military,” he said. 

On regional concerns, Wang and Iwaya discussed North Korea. 

Iwaya sought for China to partake in “a responsible role in maintaining peace and security in the international community,” he said. 

Japan has expressed “grave concern” over North Korea’s security alliance with Russia, in which North Korea stands to gain advanced military technology and combat experience. 

Wang stressed in the meeting that the significance of the countries’ relationship went beyond bilateral ties.  

“If China-Japan relations are stable, Asia will be more stable,” Wang said at the start of their meeting. 

Visa rules and seafood ban

In reciprocity to China’s eased visa rules, Japan will remove some requirements for three-year multiple entry tourist visas for Chinese citizens and allow those on group visas to stay up to 30 days, an increase from the previous 15. 

The country also has introduced a new 10-year multiple entry tourist visa. 

Last month, Beijing expanded its visa-free arrangements to include Japan until the end of 2025, restoring a policy that was suspended during the pandemic. 

China also extended the stay period to 30 days from 15. Japanese citizens were able to enter China without a visa for up to 14 days before COVID-19. 

Iwaya pointed out that addressing the safety and security of Japanese nationals was important to increase travel between Japan and China. 

Cases of Japanese nationals detained under China’s anti-espionage law and the lack of transparency around the law have led to Japanese people feeling hesitant about traveling to China, Iwaya said, calling for more transparency and the release of those detained. 

Their discussion of China’s ban on Japanese seafood, highly expected on the agenda, did not indicate any easing on restrictions, but only that both sides agreed to “properly implement” a recent agreement. 

A major sticking point in bilateral ties has been Japan’s discharge of treated radioactive wastewater from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant that Beijing strongly opposed and responded to by tightening inspections on Japanese goods. 

China was Japan’s largest export market for aquatic products until Beijing fully banned them in protest against Tokyo’s actions. 

Both governments reached an agreement in September that obligates Japan to set up a long-term international monitoring arrangement allowing stakeholders such as China to conduct independent sampling of the treated water. 

That was expected to restart the imports but China still wants reassurances from Tokyo that it would fulfill its commitment before “adjusting relevant measures” and gradually restore imports that meet standards and regulations. 

However, both countries were ready to restart talks on resuming Japanese beef and rice imports.
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Major banks and business groups sued the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, alleging the U.S. central bank’s annual “stress tests” of Wall Street firms violate the law.

The lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in Columbus, Ohio, claims the Fed’s practice of determining how big banks perform against hypothetical economic turmoil, and assigning capital requirements accordingly, do not follow proper administrative procedure. Plaintiffs included the Bank Policy Institute, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Bank Association.

The lawsuit marks the latest example of the banking industry growing bolder and challenging in court their regulators’ powers, particularly in the wake of recent Supreme Court rulings placing fresh restrictions on administrative authority.

In June, the Supreme Court dealt a major blow to such power by overturning a 1984 precedent that granted deference to government agencies in interpreting laws they administer. The so-called “Chevron doctrine” had called for judges to defer to reasonable federal agency interpretations of U.S. laws deemed to be ambiguous.  

While the 2010 Dodd-Frank law passed following the global financial crisis broadly requires the Fed to test banks’ balance sheets, the capital adequacy analysis the Fed performs as part of tests, or the resulting capital it directs lenders to set aside, are not mandated by law.

Specifically, the groups are calling for the Fed to make public and subject to feedback the now-confidential models the regulators use to gauge bank performance, as well as details of the annual scenarios they create to test for weaknesses. The groups said they did not want to kill the stress testing program, which provides an annual bill of health to the nation’s biggest firms, but argue the process needs to be more transparent and responsive to public feedback.

On Monday, the Fed announced plans to pursue similar changes ahead of the 2025 exams, citing recent legal developments, but the industry opted to proceed with its lawsuit. A Fed spokesperson declined to comment on the lawsuit on Tuesday.

“The opaque nature of these tests undermines their value for providing meaningful insights into bank resilience,” Rob Nichols, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association, said in a statement.  

“We remain hopeful the Fed will address long-standing issues with the stress tests, but this litigation preserves our ability to seek legal remedies if the Fed falls short.”

These tests, which banks have complained for years are opaque and subjective, are a central piece of the U.S. regulatory bank-capital structure. The Fed has long resisted calls to completely open up the testing process, due to concerns that it could make it easier for banks to clear the exams.

How banks perform on the test informs how much capital they must set aside to meet their obligations and dictate the scope of dividend payouts and stock buybacks.
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TOKYO — Japanese automakers Honda and Nissan have announced plans to work toward a merger, forming world’s third-largest automaker by sales as the industry undergoes dramatic changes in its transition away from fossil fuels.

The two companies said they had signed a memorandum of understanding on Monday and that smaller Nissan alliance member Mitsubishi Motors also had agreed to join the talks on integrating their businesses.

Honda’s president, Toshihiro Mibe, said Honda and Nissan will pursue unifying their operations under a joint holding company. Honda will initially lead the new management, retaining the principles and brands of each company. The aim is to have a formal merger agreement by June and to complete the deal by August 2026, he said.

No dollar value was given and the formal talks are just starting, Mibe said.

There are “points that need to be studied and discussed,” he said. “Frankly speaking, the possibility of this not being implemented is not zero.”

Automakers in Japan have lagged behind their big rivals in electric vehicles and are trying to cut costs and make up for lost time.

News of a possible merger surfaced earlier this month, with unconfirmed reports saying that the talks on closer collaboration partly were driven by aspirations of Taiwan iPhone maker Foxconn to tie up with Nissan, which has an alliance with Renault SA of France and Mitsubishi.

A merger could result in a behemoth worth more than $50 billion based on the market capitalization of all three automakers. Together, Honda and the Nissan alliance with Renault SA of France and smaller automaker Mitsubishi Motors Corp. would gain scale to compete with Toyota Motor Corp. and with Germany’s Volkswagen AG. Toyota has technology partnerships with Japan’s Mazda Motor Corp. and Subaru Corp.

Even after a merger Toyota, which rolled out 11.5 million vehicles in 2023, would remain the leading Japanese automaker. If they join, the three smaller companies would make about 8 million vehicles. In 2023, Honda made 4 million and Nissan produced 3.4 million. Mitsubishi Motors made just over 1 million.

Nissan, Honda and Mitsubishi announced in August that they would share components for electric vehicles like batteries and jointly research software for autonomous driving to adapt better to dramatic changes centered around electrification, following a preliminary agreement between Nissan and Honda set in March.

Honda, Japan’s second-largest automaker, is widely viewed as the only likely Japanese partner able to effect a rescue of Nissan, which has struggled following a scandal that began with the arrest of its former chairman Carlos Ghosn in late 2018 on charges of fraud and misuse of company assets, allegations that he denies. He eventually was released on bail and fled to Lebanon.

Speaking Monday to reporters in Tokyo via a video link, Ghosn derided the planned merger as a “desperate move.”

From Nissan, Honda could get truck-based body-on-frame large SUVs such as the Armada and Infiniti QX80 that Honda doesn’t have, with large towing capacities and good off-road performance, Sam Fiorani, vice president of AutoForecast Solutions, told The Associated Press. 

Nissan also has years of experience building batteries and electric vehicles, and gas-electric hybrid powertrains that could help Honda in developing its own EVs and next generation of hybrids, he said.

But the company said in November that it was slashing 9,000 jobs, or about 6% of its global work force, and reducing its global production capacity by 20% after reporting a quarterly loss of $61 million.

It recently reshuffled its management and Makoto Uchida, its chief executive, took a 50% pay cut to take responsibility for the financial woes, saying Nissan needed to become more efficient and respond better to market tastes, rising costs and other global changes.

“We anticipate that if this integration comes to fruition, we will be able to deliver even greater value to a wider customer base,” Uchida said.

Fitch Ratings recently downgraded Nissan’s credit outlook to “negative,” citing worsening profitability, partly due to price cuts in the North American market. But it noted that it has a strong financial structure and solid cash reserves that amounted to $9.4 billion.

Nissan’s share price also has fallen to the point where it is considered something of a bargain.

The merger reflects an industry-wide trend toward consolidation.

At a routine briefing Monday, Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said he would not comment on details of the automakers’ plans, but said Japanese companies need to stay competitive in the fast-changing global market.

“As the business environment surrounding the automobile industry largely changes, with competitiveness in storage batteries and software is increasingly important, we expect measures needed to survive international competition will be taken,” Hayashi said.
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Washington — President-elect Donald Trump said on Sunday that Stephen Miran, a Treasury Department adviser in his first administration, would be the chair of his Council of Economic Advisers.

The council advises the president on economic policy and is composed of three members, including the chair. The council assists in the preparation of an annual report that gives an overview of the country’s economy, reviews federal policies and programs and makes economic policy recommendations.

Earlier this year, Miran and economist Nouriel Roubini authored a hedge fund study that said the U.S. Treasury last year effectively provided economic stimulus by moderating long-dated bond sales.

The study echoed suggestions by Republican lawmakers that the Treasury deliberately increased issuance of short-term Treasury bills to give the economy a “sugar high” ahead of the November elections. The Treasury denied any such strategy.

Miran, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, has also argued that fears over trade tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose after he takes office next month are overblown.

Trade and economic experts have said such duties would raise prices and would effectively be a new tax on consumers.

Last month, Trump tapped Kevin Hassett, who was a key economic adviser in his first term, to chair his National Economic Council, which helps set domestic and international economic policy.

Hudson Bay Capital took a position in Trump’s social media firm Trump Media & Technology in the first quarter of this year.
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PARIS — Pastry chef Arnaud Delmontel rolls out dough for croissants and pains au chocolat that later emerge golden and fragrant from the oven in his Paris patisserie.

The price for the butter so essential to the pastries has shot up in recent months, by 25% since September alone, Delmontel says. But he is refusing to follow some competitors who have started making their croissants with margarine.

“It’s a distortion of what a croissant is,” Delmontel said. “A croissant is made with butter.”

One of life’s little pleasures — butter spread onto warm bread or imbuing cakes and seared meats with its flavor — has gotten more expensive across Europe in the last year. After a stretch of post-pandemic inflation that the war in Ukraine worsened, the booming cost of butter is another blow for consumers with holiday treats to bake.

Across the 27-member European Union, the price of butter rose 19% on average from October 2023 to October 2024, including by 49% in Slovakia, and 40% in Germany and the Czech Republic, according to figures provided to The Associated Press by the EU’s executive arm. Reports from individual countries indicate the cost has continued to go up in the months since.

In Germany, a 250-gram block of butter now generally costs between 2.40 and 4 euros ($2.49-$4.15), depending on the brand and quality.

The increase is the result of a global shortage of milk caused by declining production, including in the United States and New Zealand, one of the world’s largest butter exporters, according to economist Mariusz Dziwulski, a food and agricultural market analyst at PKO Bank Polski in Warsaw.

European butter typically has a higher fat content than the butter sold in the United States. It also is sold by weight in standard sizes, so food producers can’t hide price hikes by reducing package sizes, something known as “shrinkflation.”

A butter shortage in France in the 19th century led to the invention of margarine, but the French remain some of the continent’s heaviest consumers of butter, using the ingredient with abandon in baked goods and sauces.

Butter is so important in Poland that the government keeps a stockpile of it in the country’s strategic reserves, as it does national gas and COVID-19 vaccines. The government announced Tuesday that it was releasing some 1,000 tons of frozen butter to stabilize prices.

The price of butter rose 11.4% between early November and early December in Poland, and 49.2% over the past year to nearly 37 Polish zlotys, or $9 per kilo for the week ending Dec. 8, according to the National Support Center for Agriculture, a government agency.

“Every month butter gets more expensive,” Danuta Osinska, 77, said while shopping recently at a discount grocery chain in Warsaw.

She and her husband love butter — on bread, in scrambled eggs, in creamy desserts. But they also struggle to pay for medications on their meager pensions. So the couple is eating less butter and more margarine, even though they find the taste of the substitute spread inferior.

“There is no comparison,” Osinska said. “Things are getting harder and harder.”

The cost of butter in Poland has become a political issue. With a presidential election scheduled next year, opponents of centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk are trying to blame him and his Civic Platform party. The party’s presidential candidate is seeking to blame the national bank’s governor, who hails from an opposing political camp, for the inflation.

Some consumers decide where to shop based on the price of butter, which has led to price wars between grocery chains that in some cases kept prices artificially low in the past to the detriment of dairy farmers, according to Agnieszka Maliszewska, the director of the Polish Chamber of Milk.

Maliszewska thinks domestic, EU-specific and global issues explain butter inflation. She argues that the primary cause is a shortage of milk fat due to dairy farmers shutting down their enterprises across Europe because of slim profit markets and hard work.

She and others also cite higher energy costs from Russia’s war in Ukraine as impacting milk production. There is some debate about the potential effect of climate change. Maliszewska doesn’t see a link.

Economist Dziwulski, however, thinks droughts may be a factor in reducing production. Falling milk prices last year also discouraged investments and pushed dairy producers in the EU to make more cheese, which offered better profitability, he said.

An outbreak of bluetongue disease, an insect-borne viral disease that is harmless to humans but can be fatal for sheep, cows and goats, may also play a role, Dziwulski said.

The U.S. saw a butter price spike in 2022, when the average price jumped 33% to about $9 per kilo over the course of the year, according to government data. Dairy farmers struggled with feed costs and hot temperatures.

U.S. butter prices fell in 2023 before rising again this year, hitting a peak of about $10 per kilo in September. Higher grocery prices in general weighed on U.S. voters during the presidential election in November.

Southern European countries, which rely far more heavily on olive oil, are less affected by the butter inflation — or they just don’t consider it as important since they consume so much less.

Since last year the cost of butter shot up 44% on average in Italy, according to dairy market analysis firm CLAL. Italy is Europe’s seventh-largest butter producer, but olive oil is the preferred fat, even for some desserts. The price of butter therefore is not causing the same alarm there as it is in butter-addicted parts of Europe.

Delmontel, the Paris pastry chef, said the rising costs put business owners like him under pressure. Along with refusing to switch out butter for margarine, he has not reduced the size of his croissants. But some other French bakers are making smaller pastries to control costs, he said.

“Or else you squeeze it out of your profit margin,” Delmontel said. 
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Amazon.com workers at seven U.S. facilities walked off the job early on Thursday during the holiday shopping rush, aiming to pressure the retailer into contract talks with their union. 

Warehouse workers in cities including New York, Atlanta and San Francisco are taking part in the “largest” strike against Amazon, said the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which represents about 10,000 workers at 10 of the firm’s facilities. 

The company, however, said it does not expect any effect on its operations during one of the busiest times of the year. 

Unions represent only about 1% of the hourly workforce of Amazon, the world’s second-largest private employer after Walmart, and it has multiple locations in many metro areas. 

The Teamsters had given Amazon a Dec. 15 deadline to begin negotiations and warehouse workers had recently voted to authorize a strike. 

“If your package is delayed during the holidays, you can blame Amazon’s insatiable greed,” Teamsters’ General President Sean O’Brien said late on Wednesday. 

“We gave Amazon a clear deadline to come to the table and do right by our members. They ignored it. This strike is on them.” 

The retailer’s shares were trading 1.5% higher in premarket hours, a sign that investors do not expect a big disruption from the strike.  

The Teamsters have “intentionally misled the public” and “threatened, intimidated and attempted to coerce” employees and third-party drivers to join them, an Amazon spokesperson said on Thursday. 

Observers said Amazon was unlikely to come to the table to bargain as that could open the door to more union actions.  

It employs more than 800,000 people at its U.S. warehouses and has more than 600 fulfillment centers, delivery stations and same-day facilities in the country. 

Amazon has responded to recent organization efforts with legal challenges. Amazon has filed objections with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) over a 2022 union vote in Staten Island, alleging bias among agency officials.  

It also challenged the constitutionality of the NLRB in a September federal lawsuit. 

Earlier this year, the company announced a $2.1 billion investment to raise pay for fulfillment and transportation employees in the U.S., increasing base wages for employees by at least $1.50 to around $22 per hour, a roughly 7% increase. 
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Bangkok — For many countries in Southeast Asia, Chinese investment and tourism are key to their economies. However, cheap low-quality Chinese products that are flooding markets across the region are also raising concerns about how they are undercutting local businesses, experts say.

That is forcing countries like Thailand to find ways to combat onslaught of low-priced goods.

Last year, bilateral trade between Thailand and China was more than $126 billion, with direct Chinese foreign investment heavily contributing to the Thai economy.

Three of Thailand’s main economic industries are manufacturing, agriculture and services. But manufacturing has seen a decline, with 2,000 factories closing in 2023, leading to thousands of jobs lost, according to data from the Department of Industrial Works.

Business owners have long bemoaned the fact that low-quality Chinese goods are undercutting local Thai businesses.

Bobae Shopping Mall – a retail and wholesale market in Bangkok – is one of the places where that impact is showing. With seven floors dedicated to shopping units, many have their shutters down, even though Thailand is in its peak season and Christmas is next week.

Banchob Pianphanitporn is the owner of Ben’s Socks, which is located on the fifth floor. He has owned the business for 26 years and manages four units. He has one factory in Thailand that employs 24 staff in total.

He said that over the last decade, his sales have dropped by half because of Chinese imports.

“I would say [sales are] 50% down since 10 years ago,” he told VOA.

“I sell socks for 150 baht ($4.38) per a dozen, but if this was a Chinese product, they would sell at 85 baht ($2.48). If [customers] have low budget they will say [my socks] are expensive. They don’t consider the materials, [my socks] are much better material and more flexible,” he added.

Thailand’s slow manufacturing industry has contributed to a sluggish year for the economy. Forecasts project that Thailand’s economic will grow by 2.3% – 2.8% percent in 2024, which is less than its regional neighbors. Although the Bank of Thailand forecasts a 3% growth in 2025, concerns from business owners remain.

Banchob points to several closures of units in his mall, blaming Thailand’s economy. But in an effort to remain open, he promotes his business on social media to attract more customers.

“Social media is a must. I’m on TikTok; I make much content. I have to work harder to tell people I’m still alive; Ben Sock’s made in Thailand is here,” he added.

According to Thai government spokesperson Sasikarn Wattanachan, there has been a 20 percent decrease in low-quality imports in Thailand since July. Authorities have introduced tighter inspections of cheap imports, focusing on agricultural, consumer and industrial items. Thailand has also added a 7% value added tax on goods imported that are under 1,500 baht or $43.77, the Bangkok Post has reported.

But for other sellers and store owners, they don’t see any difference.

Pam, a seller at Pretty Baby, a baby clothes store in the Bangkok mall, says the seemingly unlimited stock from Chinese manufacturers has affected sales. Pam did not want to disclose her full name fearing retaliation for speaking with the press.

“[Chinese products] are selling a lot, but we don’t have that much stock. The government still allows the products from overseas. Our sales have dropped down a little bit,” she told VOA.

For some customers, retaining regular customers is key to beating cheaper alternatives.

Prang is part-owner of V.C. shop, a clothing store which specializes in loose-fitting clothing known as elephant pants.

“The hard advertising from Chinese people [on social media] has had a big effect,” she told VOA. Prang too did not want to give her full name.

“Pants can sell here for 70 baht ($2.04) but Chinese sell for 50 baht ($1.46). In the past we can tell [the difference] between Thai and China products, now China copies look 99 percent the same. We cannot fight with the costs, but we are confident on our material and quality, and we can keep our customers,” she added.

It’s not just Thailand that is trying to reduce low-quality imports. A growing number of countries across Asia are looking for ways to protect local manufacturers and trade.

In India, a proposed temporary tax of 25% on steel imports is likely to be imposed to curb cheaper alternatives from China and boost production from Indian manufacturers, the Reuters news agency reported on December 17.

And in Indonesia, protests against Chinese imports have prompted Jakarta to propose a 200% tariff on certain imported clothing and ceramic goods, to protect small and medium enterprises.

Vietnam also relies heavily on China in trade. Beijing is Hanoi’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade amounting to more than $171 billion in 2023. Although both governments share communist ideologies and a 1,287-kilometer land border, Vietnam is also acting to combat China’s cheap imports.

In late November, Hanoi banned Chinese online retailers Shein and Temu after the two companies failed to meet a business registration deadline with the Vietnamese government. But local businesses in Vietnam have long voiced concern over discounted products and the sale of counterfeit items from the retailer.

“Cheap Chinese imports from platforms like Shein and Temu are flooding Vietnam’s markets, squeezing local producers and sparking outrage over unfair competition,” Nguyen Khac Giang, Visiting Fellow at ISEAS, told VOA.

“In response the government is cracking down by scrapping VAT exemptions, tightening oversight, and banning platforms which do not register in Vietnam. It’s a bold move to rein in Chinese e-commerce giants and defend local businesses, but I think the fight is far from over,” he added.

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who focuses on Southeast Asia politics, says both Thailand and Vietnam may also have another motive.

“China produces on an economy of scale that no one in Southeast Asia can, their productions costs are lower for most products. I think what you see Thailand and Vietnam doing now is trying to court Chinese investment for local production, to create local product ecosystems. But neither is willing to take China head on and accuse them of unfair trading practices,” he told VOA.
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WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Wednesday by a quarter-point — its third cut this year — but also signaled that it expects to reduce rates more slowly next year than it previously envisioned, largely because of still-elevated inflation.

The Fed’s 19 policymakers projected that they would cut their benchmark rate by a quarter-point just twice in 2025, down from their estimate in September of four rate cuts. Their new projections suggest that consumers may not enjoy much lower rates next year for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and other forms of borrowing.

Fed officials have underscored that they are slowing their rate reductions as their benchmark rate nears a level that policymakers refer to as “neutral” — the level that is thought to neither spur nor hinder the economy. Wednesday’s projections suggest that the policymakers may think they are not very far from that level. Their benchmark rate stands at 4.3% after Wednesday’s move, which followed a steep half-point reduction in September and a quarter-point cut last month.

This year’s Fed rate reductions have marked a reversal after more than two years of high rates, which largely helped tame inflation but also made borrowing painfully expensive for American consumers.

Balancing inflation and unemployment

But now, the Fed is facing a variety of challenges as it seeks to complete a “soft landing” for the economy, whereby high rates manage to curb inflation without causing a recession. Chief among them is that inflation remains sticky: According to the Fed’s preferred gauge, annual “core” inflation, which excludes the most volatile categories, was 2.8% in October. That is still persistently above the central bank’s 2% target.

At the same time, the economy is growing briskly, which suggests that higher rates haven’t much restrained the economy. As a result, some economists — and some Fed officials — have argued that borrowing rates shouldn’t be reduced much more for fear of overheating the economy and re-igniting inflation. On the other hand, the pace of hiring has cooled significantly since 2024 began, a potential worry because one of the Fed’s mandates is to achieve maximum employment.

The unemployment rate, while still low at 4.2%, has risen nearly a full percentage point in the past two years. Concern over rising unemployment contributed to the Fed’s decision in September to cut its key rate by a larger-than-usual half point.

On top of that, President-elect Donald Trump has proposed a range of tax cuts — on Social Security benefits, tipped income and overtime income — as well as a scaling-back of regulations. Collectively, these moves could stimulate growth. At the same time, Trump has threatened to impose a variety of tariffs and to seek mass deportations of migrants, which could accelerate inflation.

Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have said they won’t be able to assess how Trump’s policies might affect the economy or their own rate decisions until more details are made available and it becomes clearer how likely it is that the president-elect’s proposals will be enacted. Until then, the outcome of the presidential election has mostly heightened the uncertainty surrounding the economy.

“I’ve got the least amount of conviction about what will happen with the economy over the next 12 months than I’ve had in years,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale. “This is going to be a work in progress as things evolve.”

Projections for 2025

Such uncertainty was underscored by the quarterly economic projections the Fed issued Wednesday. The policymakers now expect overall inflation, as measured by their preferred gauge, to rise slightly from 2.3% now to 2.5% by the end of 2025.

Inflation by their measure is now far below its peak of 7.2% in June 2022. Even so, the prospect of slightly higher inflation makes it harder for the Fed to reduce borrowing costs because high interest rates are its principal weapon against inflation.

The officials also expect the unemployment rate to inch up by the end of next year, from 4.2% now to a still-low 4.3%. That slight increase might not be enough, by itself, to justify many more rate cuts.

Most other central banks around the world are also cutting their benchmark rates. Last week, the European Central Bank lowered its key rate for the fourth time this year to 3% from 3.25%, as inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro has fallen to 2.3% from a peak of 10.6% in late 2022. The Bank of Canada also cut its rate by a quarter-point last week, as did the Bank of England last month.
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NAIROBI, KENYA — Kenya’s president said Tuesday that a mass livestock vaccination campaign will continue despite fears of some herders and farmers that the inoculations will somehow hurt their animals.

Kenyan President William Ruto lashed out at those objecting to a Ministry of Agriculture livestock vaccination program, which the ministry says is aimed at blocking the spread of several diseases and making the livestock meet international standards.

Critics have questioned the effectiveness of the vaccines, and some livestock farmers expressed concern — not backed by any evidence — that the vaccine program is meant to sabotage their herds.

Patrick Torome, a livestock farmer in the Rift Valley region of Kenya, said he will not allow his animals to be inoculated.

“I will not vaccinate my animals because maybe I will be compromising the quality of my cows,” he said. “We don’t know whether someone is trying to introduce a virus to the animals. So, the rich will be able to afford the cure but the poor maybe will not be able, so people will introduce poverty in Africa.”

Ruto, speaking at a goat auction in Baringo County, said the vaccinations will help Kenyan farmers make money — and was critical of those who oppose them.

“I want to promise the people of Kenya that we are going to carry out this vaccination because our farmers deserve improved earnings,” he said. “I want to ask leaders who have no knowledge, who have no understanding, who have no plan, to spare us their ignorance.”

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, the vaccination drive targets 22 million cattle and 50 million sheep and goats.

The ministry has assured animal owners the vaccines are safe and are produced locally.

Ruto said those against the vaccination of animals are preventing livestock owners from accessing international markets for their products.

“Vaccination is about disease control. … You cannot use disinformation and fake news to deny the people of Kenya international markets by discouraging disease control in Kenya,” he said.

Anthrax, foot and mouth disease, rift valley fever, African swine fever and rinderpest are some of the diseases that affect livestock in Kenya.

According to the World Health Organization, animal vaccination helps prevent and control the spread of the diseases.

The Ministry of Agriculture says so far, only 10% of animals have been vaccinated. It says the vaccination rate needs to rise to 85% to make livestock products eligible for export.

Some farmers and experts have blamed the government for the low uptake of vaccines, saying it failed to provide a clear message and allowed politicians to assume the roles of experts and veterinarians, which has fueled the false message about vaccines.
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After the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the value of the Syrian currency increased against the U.S. dollar, but the price of goods remains high. Residents say that traders are exploiting this situation and that official monitoring institutions are not properly preventing this.

Click here to see the full story in Kurdish.
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ZURICH — The Financial Stability Board (FSB) on Wednesday pitched recommendations for governments to reduce risks around hedge funds, insurers and other non-bank financial intermediaries, which now account for almost half of global financial assets.  

The sector of non-bank financial intermediation has grown by around 130% between 2009 and 2023, making markets more vulnerable for stress events, according to the Basel-based FSB, which acts as the G20’s financial risk watchdog. 

“This growth comes with an increase in complexity and interconnectedness in the financial system, which, if not properly managed, can pose substantial risks to financial stability,” said FSB Secretary General John Schindler. 

In its consultation report, the FSB proposed member governments and institutions enhance their focus on non-banks and ensure they manage their credit risks adequately. 

One set of recommendations calls for the creation of domestic frameworks to identify and monitor financial stability risks related to non-bank leverage. 

Another group proposes that policy measures be selected, designed and calibrated by governments to mitigate the identified financial stability risks. 

A third group deals with counterparty credit risk management, calling for a timely and thorough implementation of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s revised guidelines.  

The FSB also proposed stepping up private disclosure practices in the non-bank sector and addressing any regulatory inconsistencies by adopting the principle of “same risk, same regulatory treatment.” 

A last recommendation calls for improved cross-border cooperation and collaboration.  

With the consultation report, the FSB is inviting comments from member governments and institutions on its policy recommendations. 

A final report is planned for release in mid-2025.
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