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London — False and misleading information supercharged with cutting-edge artificial intelligence that threatens to erode democracy and polarize society is the top immediate risk to the global economy, the World Economic Forum said in a report Wednesday.

In its latest Global Risks Report, the organization also said an array of environmental risks pose the biggest threats in the longer term. The report was released ahead of the annual elite gathering of CEOs and world leaders in the Swiss ski resort town of Davos and is based on a survey of nearly 1,500 experts, industry leaders and policymakers.

The report listed misinformation and disinformation as the most severe risk over the next two years, highlighting how rapid advances in technology also are creating new problems or making existing ones worse.

The authors worry that the boom in generative AI chatbots like ChatGPT means that creating sophisticated synthetic content that can be used to manipulate groups of people won’t be limited any longer to those with specialized skills.

AI is set to be a hot topic next week at the Davos meetings, which are expected to be attended by tech company bosses including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and AI industry players like Meta’s chief AI scientist, Yann LeCun.

AI-powered misinformation and disinformation is emerging as a risk just as billions of people in a slew of countries, including large economies like the United States, Britain, Indonesia, India, Mexico, and Pakistan, are set to head to the polls this year and next, the report said.

“You can leverage AI to do deepfakes and to really impact large groups, which really drives misinformation,” said Carolina Klint, a risk management leader at Marsh, whose parent company Marsh McLennan co-authored the report with Zurich Insurance Group.

“Societies could become further polarized” as people find it harder to verify facts, she said. Fake information also could be used to fuel questions about the legitimacy of elected governments, “which means that democratic processes could be eroded, and it would also drive societal polarization even further,” Klint said.

The rise of AI brings a host of other risks, she said. It can empower “malicious actors” by making it easier to carry out cyberattacks, such as by automating phishing attempts or creating advanced malware.

With AI, “you don’t need to be the sharpest tool in the shed to be a malicious actor,” Klint said.

It can even poison data that is scraped off the internet to train other AI systems, which is “incredibly difficult to reverse” and could result in further embedding biases into AI models, she said.

The other big global concern for respondents of the risk survey centered around climate change.

Following disinformation and misinformation, extreme weather is the second-most-pressing short-term risk.

In the long term — defined as 10 years — extreme weather was described as the No. 1 threat, followed by four other environmental-related risks: critical change to Earth systems; biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse; and natural resource shortages.

“We could be pushed past that irreversible climate change tipping point” over the next decade as the Earth’s systems undergo long-term changes, Klint said.
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Taipei, Taiwan — For 61-year-old atemoya farmer Tsou Yun-shing in Taiwan’s Taitung County, the last two years have been a tough time for his business.

Since China banned the import of atemoyas from Taiwan in September 2021, his revenues have been slashed in half and he has had to look for alternative markets.

“Before the ban, around 80 to 90% of my atemoyas were sold to China. But since they banned the import of Taiwanese atemoyas, I have to start selling my atemoyas through different sales channels in Taiwan, hoping to at least even the costs,” he told VOA during an interview at his sprawling orchards in Taitung county in eastern Taiwan.

In addition to redirecting his atemoyas to the domestic market, Tsou also reduced the number of atemoyas he grows and started growing other fruits that are more popular in Taiwan, such as guava.

China markets

Tsou is not alone. His experience reflect a dilemma many Taiwanese fruit farmers have faced over the past two years, as China banned imports of several Taiwanese fruits that rely heavily on the Chinese market, including pineapples, wax apples and atemoyas.

While the Taiwanese government has been able to help some farmers, with fruits such as pineapples, find alternate markets like Japan to neutralize the potential losses they face, the heavy reliance of atemoya farmers on the Chinese market makes finding a solution more difficult.

“Since there is uncertainty about whether China would let Taiwanese atemoyas enter the Chinese market or not, some farmers have shifted to growing other fruits, such as custard apples, avocados, passion fruits and guavas, to reduce their reliance on the Chinese market,” Lai Xi-yao, chairman of Chi-Gen Vegetable and Fruit Co-operative, told VOA in an interview in the southern Taiwanese city of Kaohsiung.

In his view, China’s intention to allow large amounts of specific Taiwanese agricultural products into the Chinese market is an attempt to “win over the hearts and minds” of Taiwanese farmers and acquire Taiwan’s expertise in growing certain species of fruits or fisheries.

“When [Beijing] wants Taiwanese farmers to export their products to China, they will agree to whatever requests the farmers have but once they acquire the know-how about how to grow certain species of fruits, they will start blocking the imports from Taiwan,” Lai said.

He said the agricultural trade with China is not “normal” because Chinese authorities can use any excuse to ban imports of Taiwanese agricultural products.

“It’s obvious that these bans all have political elements behind them,” he told VOA.

In a statement announcing the end of the import ban on Taiwanese groupers released last month, the Chinese Communist Party’s Taiwan Affairs Office, which handles cross-strait relations, said as long as both sides of the Taiwan Strait adhere to the 1992 Consensus, a compromise agreement that Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang interprets as the two sides agreeing there’s one China, with each free to define what that is, and oppose Taiwan independence, the two sides are one family and “family matters can be discussed and resolved,” referring to import bans on several Taiwanese agricultural products.

Apart from leveraging certain Taiwanese agricultural products’ reliance on the Chinese market to impose pressure on the Taiwanese government, China has unleashed a series of coercive economic measures to influence Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections on January 13. During an interview with Taiwanese media Liberty Times on January 5, Taiwanese Premier Chen Chien-jen said China’s decision to suspend tariff reduction on 12 Taiwanese petrochemical products is of political rather than economic nature.

Recent import actions

In recent weeks, China has partially lifted import bans on groupers, a fish that used to rely heavily on export to the Chinese market, and atemoyas from Taiwan, while suspending tariff reductions on 12 Taiwanese petrochemical products. In a statement released last month, the Communist Party’s Taiwan Affairs office accused Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party or DPP of violating articles in the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement between Taipei and Beijing and install obstacles to viciously disrupt cross-strait economic exchange and cooperation.

Taiwanese authorities have criticized Beijing for politicizing trade issues ahead of the election and promised to work with affected industries to minimize the impact. On Tuesday evening, China’s commerce ministry signaled that it’s considering to further suspend tariff concessions on several products from Taiwan, including agriculture, fishery, machinery, auto parts and textiles, according to a statement posted on its website. In response, Taiwan’s Office of Trade Negotiations urged Beijing to “immediately stop using economic coercion to try to interfere in Taiwan’s election.”

To adapt to the challenges posed by China, Taiwanese authorities try to help farmers reduce their reliance on the Chinese market and redirect their products to alternative markets like Japan and South Korea.

According to data from Taiwan’s Ministry of Agriculture, China accounted for 12.9% of Taiwan’s fruit exports in 2022, down from 22.9% in 2018. Apart from looking for alternative markets, Tsou in Taitung said the government also provided different types of subsidies to help cherimoya farmers like him survive the two-year ban.

“Taiwanese authorities provided different kinds of subsidies and helped promote cherimoyas to large grocery chains in Taiwan,” he told VOA. “While farmers were able to survive the last two years without exporting their fruits, they couldn’t make any profit.”

Despite the subsidies and efforts to help redirect agricultural products to alternative markets, some analysts say the Taiwanese authorities’ response to the challenges may not have been timely enough.

“After Beijing banned imports of Taiwanese pineapples, I urged authorities to consider preparing responses for a potential Chinese ban on atemoyas,” Chiao Chun, an expert on cross-strait agricultural trade and author of the book “Fruit Politics,” told VOA in an interview in Kaohsiung.

“However, Taiwanese authorities’ response to China’s atemoya ban was still too slow, which leaves atemoya farmers in a tough situation even today,” Chiao added.

Domestic policies

China’s targeted sanctions on Taiwanese agricultural products that rely heavily on the Chinese market have also affected domestic politics in Taiwan.

Some farmers in Taitung told VOA that they will vote for the China-friendly opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) in the upcoming election because they believe this is the only way to guarantee China will end import bans on all atemoyas from Taiwan.

But Tsou holds a different view from most of his peers.

“If there is regime change after the election on Saturday, the outcome will make a difference to the situation that most atemoya farmers face,” he told VOA. “Farmers can start exporting to China if the KMT wins the election on Saturday.”

However, he also thinks Taiwanese farmers shouldn’t rely on anyone for their livelihood, since reliance will make them more vulnerable to coercive economic measures like import bans on certain products.

“As long as farmers take good care of the quality and establish different sales channels, they don’t necessarily need to rely on export to sustain their businesses,” Tsou said. “I think democracy is still more important.”
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ROME — As Italy assumes the rotating presidency of the Group of Seven leading industrial nations, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said this week that a focus on developing strategic partnerships with Africa, rather than providing aid, will be key during its one-year tenure.

Developing local economies and raising living standards in Africa, she said, could dissuade prospective migrants from seeking refuge in Europe.

Meloni told a news conference that the Mattei Plan — named after Enrico Mattei, founder of the state-controlled oil and gas giant Eni — includes specific projects beyond energy deals. Details will be unveiled later this month at a Rome conference, she said.

Professor Nicholas Westcott of the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London welcomed the announcement.

It’s an “encouraging development, but it needs to be delivered on,” he told VOA, saying that previously “there has been more talk than delivery along these lines.”

Westcott, who was formerly the European Union’s managing director for Africa, said the EU had put up “a significant sum of money to encourage investment, but it hasn’t had much impact yet.”

He said the EU needs to “up its game in terms of effective investment in Africa.”

“Now is a good time to do it. Africa is starved of investments,” Westcott said. “The demands for investment allow for the economies to adapt to climate change, which is already having quite a dramatic impact in Africa.”

Most of the nearly 261,000 migrants who crossed the Mediterranean Sea from northern Africa in 2023 entered Europe through Italy, according to the United Nations. Italy’s stringent immigration laws and restrictions on sea rescue charities have not stemmed the tide.

Meloni’s government says it is open to legal immigration to help plug labor gaps in Italy, which has one of the world’s oldest and shrinking populations.

Westcott said the plan’s underlying motive of reducing illegal migration from Africa is “politically realistic” in Europe.

“The far right … is using this anti-immigrant card to increase their vote in Europe, and without constructive policies to tackle the problem, there will be more destructive policies introduced,” he said.

Maddalena Procopio, an Africa analyst with the European Council on Foreign Relations, told VOA that Italy wants “to build cooperation and serious strategic relationships in Africa as equals not predators.” She cited the energy cooperation Africa has provided Italy that helped it move away from Russian gas.

Procopio said that while migration concerns play a big role for Italy and the EU, “the Mattai Plan is more economically oriented.”

“Italy and Europe in general are talking a lot about a shift from aid, from development cooperation to economic partnership,” she said. “But it’s unlikely that we will see a real shift, reduction of aid, so it’s more likely to be both.

“The fact that the focus is an economic partnership and not only development cooperation means a good and pragmatic change of approach. Africa has massive needs in terms of financing: infrastructure, energy access, health, education.”

Procopio said EU and Western public finance alone will not be sufficient to address such development needs, so private funds will be necessary.
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA — Recent hostilities in the Red Sea have thrown global shippers of vital goods for a loop — but it is hardly the only issue that big carriers are facing as 2024 kicks off. 

Giants like Maersk say the industry, which handles 90% of global trade, faces the possibility of significant disruptions, from ongoing wars to droughts affecting key routes such as the Panama Canal. Complex vessel schedules are likely to be knocked out of sync for giant container ships, fuel tankers and other commodity haulers throughout the year. 

That will increase delays and raise costs for retailers such as Walmart, IKEA and Amazon, as well as food makers such as Nestle and grocers including Lidl. 

“This is seemingly the new normal — these waves of chaos that seem to rise and fall. Before you get back to some level of normalcy another event happens that sort of throws things out of whack,” said Jay Foreman, CEO of Florida-based Basic Fun, who sends toys from factories in China to Europe and the United States. 

Added 2024 risks include a possible expansion of Red Sea attacks to the Arabian Gulf, which could affect oil shipments, and further souring of China-Taiwan relations that could also affect important trade lanes, said Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight data provider Xeneta. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to affect the grains trade since Moscow invaded its neighbor in 2022. 

Maersk on Friday joined other major ocean carriers in rerouting ships away from the Red Sea to avoid missile and drone attacks in an area that leads to the vital Asia-Europe Suez Canal shortcut. That route handles more than 10% of total ocean shipments and nearly one-third of the world’s container trade. 

While tankers carrying oil and fuel supplies for Europe continue to pass through the Suez Canal, most container ships are rerouting goods around Africa’s southern tip as Yemeni Houthis attack vessels in the Red Sea in a show of support for Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, which is fighting Israel in Gaza. 

The increased costs could translate into higher prices for consumers, although Goldman Sachs said Friday that the inflation shock should not be as bad as the 2020-22 pandemic chaos. 

“The first quarter is going to be a little crazy for everybody’s books” when it comes to costs, said Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA, which handles freight shipments for clients. 

Crossings through the Panama Canal, a Suez Canal alternative, are down 33% due to lower water levels, according to supply chain software provider project44. Such restrictions helped send dry bulk shipping costs for commodities such as wheat, soybeans, iron ore, coal and fertilizer sharply higher in late 2023. 

Increasingly frequent severe weather events are having a more immediate effect than political tensions. Brazil suffered a double-whammy of a historic drought on the Amazon and excessive rains in the north of the country that contributed to a longer-than-usual ship queue at the port of Paranagua in late 2023, just months ahead of peak soybean shipping season. 

“You can always say, ‘It’s a one-off event,’ but if the one-off events happen every other month, they’re not anymore one-off events,” said John Kartsonas, managing partner at Breakwave Advisors, the commodity trading advisor for the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF. 
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NEW YORK — United Nations economists are forecasting low growth globally this year, as recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic remains uneven internationally and wild cards such as climate shocks and geopolitical tensions could undermine progress.

The U.N.’s flagship World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024 report launched on Thursday projects global economic growth will slow from 2023’s estimated 2.7% to 2.4% this year, below the pre-pandemic growth rate of 3%.

“The better-than-expected performance for 2023 is chiefly driven by several large economies — notably the United States, but also Brazil, India and Mexico,” said Shantanu Mukherjee, director of the Economic Analysis and Policy Division at the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

But, he said, that growth could slow this year, especially in the United States, because of high interest rates, reduced consumer spending and weaker labor markets.

“We are not out of the danger zone in terms of the general environment being fairly unsettled,” Mukherjee told reporters.

Europe also is not without economic challenges as it copes with high inflation and interest rates and the effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The 27-nation bloc is expected to see 1.2% gross domestic product growth this year.

“That’s a very, very modest growth rate for the region, even to catch up some of the lost output,” said Hamid Rashid, chief of the Global Economic Monitoring Branch at the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. “So we are seeing direct impact from the war.”

Lingering effects of COVID-19

Developing countries are still struggling to overcome COVID-19 setbacks while coping with high interest rates and rising debt. The economists forecast that in about a quarter of all developing countries, annual inflation is projected to exceed 10% this year.

Worldwide, inflation was forecast to be an average of 3.9% this year, down from 5.7% in 2023.

“That is a rapid change,” says Mukherjee. “Back in 2022, we were seeing 8.1%.”

In China, the U.N. report found, recovery from the pandemic was slower than expected, but the country turned a corner during the second half of 2023, with the growth rate reaching an estimated 5.3% for the year, up from 3% in 2022.

“We are more optimistic about China’s growth outlook in the near-term,” Rashid said. “The outlook is stable.”

Africa is projected to have modest economic growth, creeping up from an estimated 3.3% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024. The economists say this will be driven mainly by countries in east and southern Africa.

East Asia is projected to see growth slow from 4.9% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024, mainly because of a slowdown in global demand for exports.

The outlook in Latin America and the Caribbean is deteriorating.

An important factor contributing to global economic health is trade. While it didn’t contract last year, it had very little growth.

“Without global trade picking up, which has been an engine of growth for many developing countries, we will not see the return of growth that we had before the pandemic,” Rashid said.

While the economic outlook is not all gloom and doom, the experts say they will be watching several indicators to gauge economic prospects this year. They include challenges arising from monetary tightening, weakened global trade and investment, and rising debt vulnerabilities.

They say these can be compounded by heightened geopolitical risks and rapidly worsening impacts of climate change.
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KAMPALA, UGANDA — Days after the United States removed Uganda from an economic assistance program due to human rights concerns, Uganda’s president harshly criticized the West.

In a speech Thursday, President Yoweri Museveni urged lawmakers from the Commonwealth of Nations to reject what he called the evil tendencies of Western countries toward societies different from them.

Museveni told the 33 parliament speakers from Commonwealth countries meeting in Kampala that the West’s oppression takes the form of aggression, looting, enslavement, displacement, ethnic cleansing, colonization and indirect domination without occupying one’s territory.

“If you want freedom, if you value freedom, then you should value the freedom of everybody,” he said. “If you value independence, if you value dignity, then you must respect the dignity of everybody. Stop manipulations and lectures to the societies that are different from yours.”

Museveni accused “some countries” of using technological progress to hold down other countries that have different values.

“Instead of using this human progress for the benefit of all, some actors out of greed and philosophical, ideological and strategic shallowness, miscalculate and seek to monopolize knowledge and also use knowledge to oppress others,” he said.

Since Ugandan lawmakers passed an anti-homosexuality law in May 2023, the East African country has come under pressure for the abuse of human rights.

The World Bank withdrew funding from the nation, and just this week, Uganda lost its eligibility for the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA.

Through AGOA, some countries in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, had duty-free access to the U.S. market for close to 6,000 products.

Asuman Basalirwa, the member of Uganda’s parliament who introduced the anti-gay legislation that has been described as the world’s harshest law against the LGBTQ community, said he is not surprised that Uganda is facing consequences.

“I am really disappointed about their preferential treatment of rights,” Basalirwa said. “And that makes them lose the moral authority to attack the country over the anti-homosexuality law.”

Regardless, he said, “nobody should tell you that the country will not suffer as a result of closure of AGOA.”

Uganda’s earnings through AGOA grew from $4 million to about $8 million in the 12 months up to June 2023.

Museveni said Uganda could still take advantage of its access to the 2.4 billion people who live in Commonwealth nations, made up mostly of former British colonies, to grow its economy.

Basalirwa said Uganda also needs to find paths to markets in East Asia and get a foothold in the U.S. market.
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BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA — Argentine judges on Wednesday suspended labor law changes that form part of a decree of sweeping economic reforms and deregulation announced by the country’s new libertarian president, Javier Milei.

The CGT trade union body had challenged the changes, which technically took effect last Friday, on grounds that they erode basic worker protections such as the right to strike and parental leave.

Judges of Argentina’s labor appeals chamber froze elements of Milei’s decree, which, among other things, increased the legal job probation period from three to eight months, reduced compensation in case of dismissal and cut pregnancy leave.

Judge Alejandro Sudera questioned the “necessity” and “urgency” of the decree Milei signed on December 20 — just days after taking office — and suspended the measures until they can be properly considered by Congress.

Some of the measures, Sudera added in a ruling distributed to the media, appeared to be “repressive or punitive in nature,” and it was not clear how their application would aid Milei’s objective of “creating real jobs.”

The government can appeal Wednesday’s ruling.

Thousands took to the streets last week to protest the reforms of self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” Milei, who won elections in November with promises of slashing state spending as Argentina deals with an economic crisis, including triple-digit inflation.

The CGT has called a general strike for January 24.

“Rebuilding the country”

The measures have drawn heated debate among jurists about their constitutionality and are the subject of several court challenges.

When he announced his decree, Milei said the goal was to “start along the path to rebuilding the country … and start to undo the huge number of regulations that have held back and prevented economic growth.”

The decree changed or scrapped more than 350 economic regulations in a country accustomed to heavy government intervention in the market.

It eliminates a law regulating rent, envisages the privatization of state enterprises and terminates some 7,000 civil service contracts.

Latin America’s third-biggest economy is on its knees after decades of debt and financial mismanagement, with inflation surpassing 160% year-on-year and 40% of Argentines living in poverty.

Milei has pledged to curb inflation but warned that economic “shock” treatment is the only solution, and that the situation will get worse before it improves.

Won election resoundingly

The 53-year-old won a resounding election victory on a wave of fury over the country’s decades of economic crises marked by debt, rampant money printing, inflation and fiscal deficit.

Milei has targeted spending cuts equivalent to 5% of gross domestic product.

Shortly after taking office, his administration devalued Argentina’s peso by more than 50% and announced huge cuts in generous state subsidies of fuel and transport.

Milei has also announced a halt to all new public construction projects and a yearlong suspension of state advertising.

Argentines remain haunted by hyperinflation of up to 3,000% in 1989 and 1990 and a dramatic economic implosion in 2001.
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OSLO, NORWAY — Denmark’s Maersk and German rival Hapag-Lloyd said on Tuesday their container ships would continue to avoid the Red Sea route that gives access to the Suez Canal following a weekend attack on one of Maersk’s vessels.  

Both shipping giants have been rerouting some sailings via Africa’s southern Cape of Good Hope as Yemen-based Houthi militants attack cargo vessels in the Red Sea. The disruption threatens to drive up delivery costs for goods, raising fears it could trigger a fresh bout of global inflation.  

Maersk had on Sunday paused all Red Sea sailings for 48 hours following attempts by Houthi militants to board the Maersk Hangzhou. U.S. military helicopters repelled the assault and killed 10 of the attackers. 

“An investigation into the incident is ongoing, and we will continue to pause all cargo movement through the area while we further assess the constantly evolving situation,” Maersk said in a statement.  

“In cases where it makes most sense for our customers, vessels will be rerouted and continue their journey around the Cape of Good Hope.” 

Maersk had more than 30 container vessels set to sail through Suez via the Red Sea, an advisory on Monday showed, while 17 other voyages were put on hold. 

Hapag-Lloyd said its vessels would continue to divert away from the Red Sea — sailing instead via Africa’s southern tip — until at least January 9, when it will decide whether to continue rerouting its ships. 

The Suez Canal is used by roughly one-third of global container ship cargo. Redirecting ships around the southern tip of Africa is expected to cost up to $1 million extra in fuel for every round trip between Asia and northern Europe. 

The Maersk Hangzhou, which was hit by an unknown object during the weekend attack, was able to continue on its way. 

The Iran-backed Houthis, who control parts of Yemen after years of war, started attacking international shipping in November in support of Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in its war with Israel in the Gaza Strip. 

That prompted major shipping groups, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, to stop using Red Sea routes, instead taking the longer journey around the Cape of Good Hope. 

But after the deployment of a U.S.-led military operation to protect ships, Maersk had said on December 24 that it would resume using the Red Sea. 
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ALBANY, N.Y. — New York’s minimum-wage workers had more than just the new year to celebrate Monday, with a pay bump kicking in as the clock ticked over to 2024.   

In the first of a series of annual increases slated for the Empire State, the minimum wage increased to $16 in New York City and some of its suburbs, up from $15. In the rest of the state, the new minimum wage is $15, up from $14.20.   

The state’s minimum wage is expected to increase every year until it reaches $17 in New York City and its suburbs, and $16 in the rest of the state by 2026. Future hikes will be tied to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, a measurement of inflation.   

New York is one of 22 states getting minimum wage rises in the new year, according to a recent report by the Economic Policy Institute.   

In California, the minimum wage increased to $16, up from $15.50, while in Connecticut it increased to $15.69 from the previous rate of $15.   

This most recent pay bump in New York is part of an agreement made last year between Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and the state Legislature. The deal came over the objections of some employers, as well as some liberal Democrats who said it didn’t go high enough.   

The federal minimum wage in the United States has stayed at $7.25 per hour since 2009, but states and some localities are free to set higher amounts. Thirty states, including New Mexico and Washington, have done so. 
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Harare — President Emmerson Mnangagwa has predicted Zimbabwe’s moribund economy will turn around this year following the recent discovery of oil and gas near the country’s border with Mozambique and Zambia and improvement in the country’s mining and tourism sectors. Economists are not as optimistic, as Zimbabweans continue to leave the country.

In a new year message broadcast to Zimbabweans at home and in the diaspora on national television and on social media, President Emmerson Mnangagwa said all was shaping for a prosperous Zimbabwe. He said the mining sector had surpassed the target of $12 billion in 2023, while the country was now food sufficient. That’s not all, said the 81-year-old politician.

“I am encouraged by the increased number of both local and international tourists visiting our country. Equally, investments in new tourism products and facilities which bolstered the sector are a welcome development. As we drive towards energy self-sufficiency, the discovery of oil and gas in Muzarabani confirms Zimbabwe’s potential as a future producer of gas. This should translate into meeting our energy demands commensurate with the ever growing economy,” he said.

Gift Mugano, an economics professor at Durban University of Technology, responded to Mnangagwa’s speech.

“We are in agro-based economy. We sneeze when the agriculture sector catches a cold. We know that this year there is a drought. That will have a devastating impact on the economy. With drought, we will be importing food. Because of the Russia-Ukraine war, which has seen prices of food, globally, going up around 50%,” said Mugano.

“We will be forking [out] something in the region of close to $1 billion. Which is almost 20% or so of our total foreign currency receipt. So this will weigh down on the economy in terms of the economy performance. So, to be quite frank and quite honest, the economy will underperform in this year. Yes, we are talking about the discovery of gas and oil but it’s too early to talk about that development as the driver of the economy.”

Prosper Chitambara, senior economist with the Labor and Economic Development Research Institute of Zimbabwe, says the country’s agro-based economy will only improve this year if there is no drought as most farmers depend on rains.

“In terms of the discovery of oil and gas, I think it’s going to take a bit of time probably for the country to begin to benefit from this important discovery. I think they should be some gestation period, which obviously also then allows for the investor to fully set up and to start commercial activities. But overall, this year the economy is expected to grow by 3.5% which is lower than the 5.5% estimated growth there for last year,” said Chitambara.

Ranga Chivi is an electrical engineer who recently left Zimbabwe with his family for greener pastures in Australia who listened to Mnangagwa’s speech.

“It would be interesting to see how the gas and oil discoveries will turn around the economy. We did not leave Zimbabwe because we are unemployed, but we left Zimbabwe because of search of greener pastures and a much more stable economic environment you can raise a family in. So the discovery of gas and oil, it’s positive for the country and we are more than eager to help where we can, but what remains is the issue to do with stability that I am hoping that this project will bring,” said Chivi.

According to World Bank, the primary reason Zimbabweans migrate is to search for economic opportunities. It says of the approximately 908,000 emigrants counted in Zimbabwe’s 2022 census, a large majority (84%) had left the country in search of employment, while another 5% had migrated for education or training.
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Taipei, Taiwan — A growing number of home buyers in China have seen their dream of moving into new homes dashed in the past year after a slew of bankrupt developers left behind millions of unfinished pre-sold properties.

Many of the buyers could do nothing but vent their anger and frustration on Chinese social media platforms such as Douyin, known internationally as TikTok, over what they called “rotting apartments” that represented their lifetime savings. Police are cracking down on protests.

The crisis of confidence in a sector that was once a reliable route to building wealth may threaten China’s growth and stability in 2024, experts say.

“Since the real-estate market has historically been a key driver of China’s economy, losing this momentum is expected to result in a long-term average economic growth rate below 5% starting in 2024,” Darson Chiu, a research fellow at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research in Taipei, told VOA Mandarin in a written reply on December 14.

Among countless victims, a Douyin user from the Henan province in north-central China with the name, “The happy life in my rotting apartment,” posted a short video clip on December 1 showing a local project where construction was halted.

“It’s been a year, but my apartment remains unfinished. … I hope the construction of the building can be restarted soon so that I can move into my future home,” he said in the video. 

A victim in the Hunan province city of Changsha, identified only as Ms. Chen in a local TV news report, said in late 2022 that her family could barely make ends meet after paying the monthly mortgage of $700 (5,000 yuan).

 “If my unfinished property keeps rotting, I personally won’t have the courage to go on living,” said Chen.

VOA Mandarin has approached a dozen owners of unfinished homes on Chinese social media platforms Douyin, Xiaohongshu, known as RED outside of China, and Weibo, China’s microblogging site similar to X. None agreed to talk.

Two lawyers in Shanghai and Beijing who specialize in property disputes also refused to be interviewed.

The Beijing lawyer said the city’s Bureau of Justice has banned lawyers from talking to foreign press, citing “the class action’s sensitivity.” None of his clients wanted to talk to foreign press.

The China Dissent Monitor, a project of U.S. rights group Freedom House, has been tracking postings across Chinese social media and tallied 1,841 demonstrations linked to the property sector between June 2022 and September 2023. Final 2023 figures won’t be available until January, said Kevin Slaten, Taipei-based research lead with the China Dissident Monitor project.

Two-thirds of the strikes were staged by homebuyers over issues like project delays, contract violations and alleged fraud, while the others have been triggered by construction workers demanding unpaid wages, according to Slaten.

One-fourth of the housing protests saw police repression, which Slaten said is an underestimate, as piecemeal evidence can only be captured from those video clips.

But the trend toward silencing protesters shows the gravity of threat to China’s leader, Xi Jinping.

“As the dictator of such a centralized system and a person who’s tried to centralize power, he [Xi] definitely sees this as a threat to his vision, which is keeping economic development high, making sure that he can deliver this to people as a way to co-opt them and garner enough support among the public for the authoritarian system,” Slaten told VOA Mandarin by phone.

Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, estimated in mid-November that $448 billion is needed to complete the homes pre-sold between 2015 and 2020 that remain unfinished projects, assuming an average construction progress of 50%, according to his research provided to VOA Mandarin. That represents roughly 20 million homes.

In one of his research papers dated November 27, Lu urged Beijing to “play the role of lender of last resort to save the property sector” or the crisis could endanger social stability at some point next year.

But Nan Li, a Shanghai-based finance scholar, disagreed, saying that the proceeds from the liquidation of builders’ assets after they file for bankruptcy should be prioritized to ensure the delivery of unfinished homes.

Li added that any government bailout will only indulge the developers’ appetite for over-leveraging.

The biggest firms with the worst debt woes “have made a mistake in exercising excessive leverage. There’s no reason for the government to bail them out,” Li told VOA Mandarin.  

Li noted that China’s property sector should learn from the experience of Guangdong province, where its problem of massive unfinished homes around 1997 was eventually solved in years after builders’ nonperforming assets were all restructured in a lawful manner and in line with the market mechanism.
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BLANTYRE, MALAWI — Tanzania has banned imports of soybeans from Malawi to protect its agricultural sector from the presence of the tobacco ringspot virus in that neighboring country.

The Tanzania Plant Health and Pesticide Authority said in a recent statement that its pest risk analysis on soybeans from Malawi has established the presence of the tobacco ringspot virus, which poses significant risk to soybean production in Tanzania.

The virus is highly contagious and can lead to yield reduction and economic losses ranging from 25% to 100% for farmers, the statement said.

Some analysts are calling Tanzania’s action retaliatory, as it comes a few days after Malawi banned maize imports from Tanzania and Kenya over maize lethal necrosis disease in those two countries.

Grace Mijiga-Mhango, president of the Grain Traders Association of Malawi, said Tanzania’s ban on soybeans from Malawi is not surprising.

“We call it a trade war,” she said. “They started the war, and their friends are fighting back.”

Tanzania is among the biggest importers of soybeans from Malawi.

In February, Tanzania’s high commissioner to Malawi committed to facilitate the purchase of 100,000 metric tons of soybeans from Malawi, worth about $30 million. Agriculture authorities in Malawi say the country harvested about 400,000 metric tons of soybeans in the 2022-23 season.

Mijiga-Mhango said the impact of the ban will go beyond selling soybeans within Tanzania because, she predicted, Tanzania will not allow exports to other countries, especially in the East African market, to pass through it.

Ronald Chilumpha, an expert in crop protection in Malawi, said that a better solution to the diseases could have been reached had Malawian and Tanzanian authorities held discussions before imposing their respective import bans.

“Issues to do with plant diseases or pests — most of these are migratory and they will certainly move from one area to another, even when you have all the controls in place,” he said.

“You cannot stop maize from Tanzania coming into Malawi 100%, that’s not possible,” he said. “It just requires a single grain of contaminated maize.”

Tanzania has also banned the introduction of genetically modified maize seeds from Malawi, saying it wants to maintain a non-GMO status in its agricultural practices.

Malawian Minister of Agriculture Sam Kawale told VOA via a messaging app that he could not comment on Tanzania’s ban.

Malawian Principal Secretary for Ministry of Agriculture Dickxie Kampani said he was engaging experts on crop diseases for details about the presence of tobacco ringspot virus in his country.
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LAHAINA, Hawaii — The restaurant where Katie Austin was a server burned in the wildfire that devastated Hawaii’s historic town of Lahaina this summer.

Two months later, as travelers began to trickle back to nearby beach resorts, she went to work at a different eatery. But she soon quit, worn down by constant questions from diners: Was she affected by the fire? Did she know anyone who died?

“You’re at work for eight hours and every 15 minutes you have a new stranger ask you about the most traumatic day of your life,” Austin said. “It was soul-sucking.”

Hawaii’s governor and mayor invited tourists back to the west side of Maui months after the August 8 fire killed at least 100 people and destroyed more than 2,000 buildings. They wanted the economic boost tourists would bring, particularly heading into the year-end holidays.

But some residents are struggling with the return of an industry requiring workers to be attentive and hospitable even though they are trying to care for themselves after losing their loved ones, friends, homes and community.

Maui is a large island. Many parts, like the ritzy resorts in Wailea, 48 kilometers south of Lahaina — where the first season of the HBO hit The White Lotus was filmed — are eagerly welcoming travelers and their dollars.

Things are more complicated in west Maui. Lahaina is still a mess of charred rubble. Efforts to clean up toxic debris are painstakingly slow. It’s off-limits to everyone except residents.

Tensions are peaking over the lack of long-term, affordable housing for wildfire evacuees, many of whom work in tourism. Dozens have been camping out in protest around the clock on a popular tourist beach at Kaanapali, a few miles north of Lahaina. Last week, hundreds marched between two large hotels waving signs reading, “We need housing now!” and “Short-term rentals gotta go!”

Hotels at Kaanapali are still housing about 6,000 fire evacuees unable to find long-term shelter in Maui’s tight and expensive housing market. But some have started to bring back tourists, and owners of timeshare condos have returned. At a shopping mall, visitors stroll past shops and dine at open-air oceanfront restaurants.

Austin took a job at a restaurant in Kaanapali after the fire but quit after five weeks. It was a strain to serve mai tais to people staying in a hotel or vacation rental while her friends were leaving the island because they lacked housing, she said.

Servers and many others in the tourism industry often work for tips, which puts them in a difficult position when a customer prods them with questions they don’t want to answer. Even after Austin’s restaurant posted a sign asking customers to respect employees’ privacy, the queries continued.

“I started telling people, ‘Unless you’re a therapist, I don’t want to talk to you about it,'” she said.

Austin now plans to work for a nonprofit organization that advocates for housing.

Erin Kelley didn’t lose her home or workplace but has been laid off as a bartender at Sheraton Maui Resort since the fire. The hotel reopened to visitors in late December, but she doesn’t expect to get called back to work until business picks up.

She has mixed feelings. Workers should have a place to live before tourists are welcome in west Maui, she said, but residents are so dependent on the industry that many will remain jobless without those same visitors.

“I’m really sad for friends and empathetic towards their situation,” she said. “But we also need to make money.”

When she does return to work, Kelley said she won’t want to “talk about anything that happened for the past few months.”

More travel destinations will likely have to navigate these dilemmas as climate change increases the frequency and intensity of natural disasters.

There is no manual for doing so, said Chekitan Dev, a tourism professor at Cornell University. Handling disasters — natural and manmade — will have to be part of their business planning.

Andreas Neef, a development professor and tourism researcher at the University of Auckland in New Zealand, suggested one solution might be to promote organized “voluntourism.” Instead of sunbathing, tourists could visit part of west Maui that didn’t burn and enlist in an effort to help the community.

“Bringing tourists for relaxation back is just at this time a little bit unrealistic,” Neef said. “I couldn’t imagine relaxing in a place where you still feel the trauma that has affected the place overall.”

Many travelers have been canceling holiday trips to Maui out of respect, said Lisa Paulson, the executive director of the Maui Hotel and Lodging Association. Visitation is down about 20% from December of 2022, according to state data.

Cancellations are affecting hotels all over the island, not just in west Maui.

Paulson attributes some of this to confusing messages in national and social media about whether visitors should come. Many people don’t understand the island’s geography or that there are places people can visit outside west Maui, she said.

One way visitors can help is to remember they’re traveling to a place that recently experienced significant trauma, said Amory Mowrey, the executive director of Maui Recovery, a mental health and substance abuse residential treatment center.

“Am I being driven by compassion and empathy or am I just here to take, take, take?” he said.

That’s the approach honeymooners Jordan and Carter Prechel of Phoenix adopted. They kept their reservations in Kihei, about 40 kilometers south of Lahaina, vowing to be respectful and to support local businesses.

“Don’t bombard them with questions,” Jordan said recently while eating an afternoon snack in Kaanapali with her husband. “Be conscious of what they’ve gone through.”
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