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European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in an interview published on Sunday that she was confident the ECB would meet its target of getting inflation back down to 2%, and relatively confident over Europe’s gas reserves situation. 

Last month, the ECB raised its key interest rate to a record high of 4%.

“The key ECB interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target,” Lagarde said in an interview published on Sunday in French paper La Tribune Dimanche. The ECB’s website clarified that the interview was conducted on Oct. 2. 

Lagarde added the fact that inflation was “currently falling significantly” was one of several reason as to why she was not pessimistic regarding the short-term economic outlook.

She added that other reasons for this were economic reforms underway in Europe, and because Europe’s gas reserves situation was better than before.

“Structural reforms are being put in place. And, just one year ago, who would have thought that we would succeed in replenishing more than 90% of our gas reserves by September 2023?,” said Lagarde.

“This allows us to look towards the coming winter, if not calmly, then at least with a lot more confidence,” she added.
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All About America explores American culture, politics, trends, history, ideals and places of interest.

As Americans shed pounds on weight loss drugs like Ozempic, snack food companies could be in for some shrinkage, as well.

“The food, beverage and restaurant industries could see softer demand, particularly for unhealthier foods and high-fat, sweet and salty options,” Morgan Stanley food analyst Pamela Kaufman says in a company report.

A survey of 300 people currently taking semaglutide weight loss drugs such as Ozempic showed the medicine can reduce calorie intake by 20% to 30% a day.

The people surveyed said they cut back the most on foods that are high in sugar and fat, reducing their consumption of sweets, sugary drinks and baked goods by up to two-thirds. The survey found 77% of people on weight loss drugs went to fast food restaurants less often, while 74% reduced their visits to pizza shops.

Approximated 1 in 5 American adults is obese, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“It’s all of these food companies [and] beverage companies that have created the obesity,” says Angelica Gianchandani, professor of marketing at the University of New Haven in Connecticut. “At one time, it was innovation — creating all these different products and being able to put foods in bags and ziplocks [plastic bags] and easy to carry and transport — that was innovation. But all of this food creation in packaged goods, there’s a lot of processed foods, and the impact, if you’re not eating in moderation, has created this obesity.”

Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that 24 million people, roughly 7% of the U.S. population, will be taking this new class of obesity drugs by 2035. They project that overall consumption of soft drinks, baked goods and salty snacks could fall up to 3% by 2035.

But James Schrager, professor of entrepreneurship and strategy at the University of Chicago, says the snack industry continues to grow, and he doesn’t expect the increased use of semaglutides to have a major long-term impact.

“The growth comes from younger users, and younger users may not be the primary target for the drug,” he says. “Younger people — who don’t become obese usually, or at least in many cases — and who aren’t going to be taking the drug.”

Schrager says he’s worked as a consultant with some of the largest processed food companies in the world, and they are already concerned about providing healthier options.

“Way before this drug, [they worried] that the market will go away,” Schrager says. “They very much know that some of these are not good for some people’s health. …They would often say, ‘In a health-conscious world, we realize we may be out of business. How do we fix that?’”

The rise in semaglutide use also could cut into other obesity-related industries. The proportion of people paying for weight loss programs fell from 29% to 20% once they started taking the drug, according to the data. Gianchandani says weight loss businesses will pivot to health and wellness to stay afloat.

“And it will require people to have coaches, people to have nutritionists, to help give them a regimented diet to help them monitor,” she says. “These weight loss companies will encompass all of that, everything from food programs to coaching and support groups to help them maintain their weight and stay healthy.”

The report finds that patients taking the obesity drugs say they’re cutting back on sugary carbonated drinks (65%) and alcohol (62%). Almost one-fourth completely gave up alcohol. But Gianchandani says alcohol producers could benefit from the semaglutide craze.

“It’s going to capture a whole new market share. For them, it’s good,” she says, pointing out that alcohol producers are increasingly developing lower-calorie beverages. “They’re going to have a new product line to target a whole new demographic, and it will be millions of dollars of a market for them to benefit from.”
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The United Auto Workers union said Friday it will not expand its strikes against Detroit’s three automakers after General Motors made a breakthrough concession on unionizing electric vehicle battery plants. 

Union President Shawn Fain told workers in a video appearance that additional plants could be added to the strikes later. 

The announcement of the pause in expanding the strikes came shortly after GM agreed to bring electric vehicle battery plants into the UAW’s national contract, essentially assuring that they will be unionized. 

Fain, wearing a T-shirt that said “Eat the Rich” in bold letters, said GM’s move will change the future of the union and the auto industry. He said GM made the change after the union threatened to strike at a plant in Arlington, Texas, that makes highly profitable large SUVs. 

“Today, under the threat of a major financial hit, they leapfrogged the pack in terms of a just transition” from combustion engines to electric vehicles, he said. “Our strike is working, but we’re not there yet.” 

In addition to large general pay raises, cost of living pay, restoration of pensions for new hires and other items, the union wanted to represent 10 battery factories proposed by the companies. 

The companies have said the plants, mostly joint ventures with South Korean battery makers, had to be bargained separately. 

Friday’s change means the four U.S. GM battery plants would now be covered under the union’s master agreement and GM would bargain with the union “which I think is a monumental development,” said Marick Masters, a business professor at Wayne State University in Detroit.  He said the details of GM’s offer, made in writing, will have to be scrutinized. 

“GM went far beyond and gave them this,” Masters said. “And I think GM is thinking they may get something in return for this on the economic items.” 

GM, Ford and Stellantis declined immediate comment on Fain’s announcement. 

Shares of all three automakers rose after Fain’s announcement in apparent anticipation that deals might be near. GM’s shares ended Friday up almost 2%, Stellantis added 3% and Ford rose just under 1%. 

The automakers have resisted bringing battery plants into the national UAW contracts, contending the union can’t represent workers who haven’t been hired yet. They also say joint venture partners must be involved in the talks. 

They also fear that big union contracts could drive up the prices of their electric vehicles, making them more expensive than Tesla and other nonunion competitors. 

For the past two weeks the union has expanded strikes that began on September 15 when the UAW targeted one assembly plant from each of the three automakers. That spread to 38 parts-distribution centers run by GM and Stellantis, maker of Jeeps and Ram pickups. Ford was spared from that expansion because talks with the union were progressing then. 

Last week the union added a GM crossover SUV plant in Lansing, Michigan, and a Ford SUV factory in Chicago but spared Stellantis from additional strikes due to progress in talks. 

Automakers have long said they are willing to give raises, but they fear that a costly contract will make their vehicles more expensive than those built at nonunion U.S. plants run by foreign corporations. 

The union insists that labor expenses are only 4% to 5% of the cost of a vehicle, and that the companies are making billions in profits and can afford big raises. 

The union had structured its walkouts so the companies can keep making big pickup trucks and SUVs, their top-selling and most profitable vehicles. Previously it shut down assembly plants in Missouri, Ohio and Michigan that make midsize pickups, commercial vans and midsize SUVs, which aren’t as profitable as larger vehicles. 

In the past, the union picked one company as a potential strike target and reached a contract agreement with that company to be the pattern for the others. 

But this year, Fain introduced a novel strategy of targeting a limited number of facilities at all three automakers. About 25,000, or about 17%, of the union’s 146,000 workers at the three automakers are now on strike. 
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The future of a $100 billion development on Malaysia’s coast is in doubt due to growing concerns over the financial stability of its largest backer, China’s Country Garden. The property giant has reported billions of dollars in losses — but insists that its showpiece Forest City project in Malaysia is safe. Adam Hancock has this story from Johor, Malaysia. Camera — Wen Yi Chen.
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The G7 group of rich nations is pushing for a ban on diamonds mined in Russia – the world’s biggest producer – following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year. But as Henry Ridgwell reports, it will be difficult to stop Russian diamonds from entering the global market, which is worth $87 billion a year.
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Nigerian authorities are investigating the deaths of at least 15 people in the explosion of an illegally tapped oil pipeline on Sunday, an often-deadly practice that has been going on for decades.

Police in the Rivers state, which is in the West African nation’s southern delta region, told VOA by phone Wednesday that Iba community locals were scooping crude oil and refining it at an illegal site late Sunday when the explosion occurred.

Police spokesperson Grace Iringe-Koko said authorities removed 15 bodies, including that of a pregnant woman, from the site. Twenty survivors, including the owner of the illegal refinery, were taken to a local hospital with burns.

“We’re investigating,” Iringe-Koko said. “It was this illegally refined product they were scooping that caused this fire explosion. We documented photographs of the incident. Members of the public and parents should warn their wards not to involve in such activities.

“We’re also trying to see if we can deploy more security to that place so that such acts will not continue,” she said.

Crude oil theft is a perennial problem in Nigeria — one of the Africa’s largest producers. The illegal refining of crude, known as “oil bunkering,” is rampant in oil-rich regions.

In April, the Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative said Nigeria lost about 620 million barrels of crude oil valued at $46 billion between 2009 and 2020.

Nigerian authorities have been trying to address the problem without much success.

Faith Nwadishi, executive director of the Center for Transparency Advocacy, said authorities must take decisive security and legal action to end oil theft.

“The technology around refining of crude is not what the local people themselves are involved in,” Nwadishi said. “It’s a cabal of very knowledgeable people with resources that are able to do that. So, government really needs to look inward — the issues around impunity and corruption. Our legal framework is weak.”

Nigeria is dependent on crude oil for more than 80% of its national revenue.

Authorities say oil theft is detrimental to the Nigeria’s economy and national security, but Nwadishi said widespread poverty in oil-producing regions also plays a role.

“Over the years that we have taken crude oil from these communities, there has been little or no development,” she said. “Those same communities do not have projects, infrastructure. The people don’t have electricity, and every day they’re faced with the issue about degradation that comes from oil production within their communities. So, people around communities now see it as a right to take part of this crude [oil].”

Oil and gas expert Emmanuel Afimia said that without better opportunities for locals, it will be difficult to tackle oil theft.

“Many of these villages along the pipelines know about these illegal refineries, but as long as the money keeps flowing into the owners’ pockets and then it keeps circulating in the community, they would not want to rat out whoever is operating that structure,” Afimia said. “So, having to depend on communities to report structures will not work.”

The United Nations says that, worldwide, stolen oil accounts for around 5% to 7% of the global crude oil and petroleum fuel market.

Last year, Nigeria awarded a pipeline surveillance contract to former militant Government Ekpemupolo, also known as Tompolo, and uncovered many large sites where oil was being siphoned.

But experts say that unless the deeper problem of corruption is solved or authorities begin to prosecute offenders, oil theft will continue to be a problem in Nigeria.
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Jury selection is currently underway in Sam Bankman-Fried’s trail on fraud and conspiracy charges, nearly one year after his now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange, FTX, collapsed.

According to prosecutors, Bankman-Fried, who has been detained since August, is responsible for embezzling money from FTX for the benefit of his hedge fund, Alameda Research, as well as to purchase luxury properties and donate over $100 million to U.S. political candidates. 

The former billionaire is alleged to have committed this embezzlement from FTX’s founding in 2019 until its bankruptcy in 2022. 

Prosecutors and defense lawyers confirmed that there was never any discussion of a plea deal. Bankman-Fried has pleaded not guilty to seven counts of fraud and conspiracy.

The trial could last up to six weeks. The prosecution is intending to bring three people who were part of Bankman-Fried’s inner circle to testify against him. They are cooperating with Manhattan’s U.S. Attorney’s Office and have already pleaded guilty to fraud charges themselves. 

The defense intends to challenge these witnesses by denouncing their credibility and claiming that they are only cooperating to secure lesser sentences.

The defense’s arguments will primarily revolve around their idea that FTX was not able to meet customer’s withdrawal requests because of a series of poor business decisions rather than deliberate fraud. 

Bankman-Fried, 31, was indicted last December. His trial is the highest-profile case that U.S. prosecutors have brought against a former cryptocurrency manager.

Some information for this report came from Reuters.
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President Joe Biden has signed a bill to fund the U.S. government through mid-November and avoid a shutdown, less than an hour before money for federal agencies was set to run out.

Biden posted a picture of himself signing the bill on X, the social media platform previously known as Twitter, late Saturday night. In the message, he urged Congress to get to work immediately to pass funding bills for the full fiscal year.

The U.S. Senate, in a rare weekend meeting, approved a funding bill Saturday night, sending it to President Joe Biden for his signature and averting a widely dreaded shutdown of the federal government.

The bill, which passed the Senate 88-9 after winning approval in the House of Representatives, would fund the federal government through Nov. 17. The bill contains $16 billion in disaster aid sought by Biden but did not include money to help Ukraine in its war against Russia’s invasion.

After the vote, Biden released a statement saying the bill’s passage prevented “an unnecessary crisis that would have inflicted needless pain on millions of hardworking Americans.”

“We will have avoided a shutdown,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement after the vote. “Bipartisanship, which has been the trademark of the Senate, has prevailed. And the American people can breathe a sigh of relief.”

Had the bill not been approved by Congress and signed by the president by midnight Saturday, the federal government would have shut down.

More than 4 million U.S. military service personnel and government workers would not be paid, although essential services, such as air traffic control and official border entry points would still be staffed. Pensioners might not get their monthly government payments in time to pay bills and buy groceries, and national parks could be closed.

For days all of that seemed inevitable.

The abrupt turn of events began Saturday when Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy changed tactics and put forward the funding bill that hard-line members of his Republican caucus opposed.

The House passed the bill, 335-91. More Democrats supported it than Republicans, even though it does not contain aid for Ukraine, a priority for Biden, Democrats and many Senate Republicans.

“Extreme MAGA Republicans have lost, the American people have won,” top House Democrat Hakeem Jeffries told reporters ahead of the vote.

Republican Representative Lauren Boebert criticized the passage of the short-term stopgap bill.

“We should have forced the Senate to take up the four appropriations bills that the House has passed. That should have been our play,” she told CNN. “We should have forced them to come to the negotiating table, to come to conference, to hash out our differences.”

McCarthy is likely to face a motion from the right-wing members of his party to remove him as speaker.

“If somebody wants to remove me because I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try,” McCarthy said of the threat to oust him. “But I think this country is too important.”

Ukraine aid still likely

In his statement, Biden noted the lack of funding for Ukraine in the bill and said, “We cannot under any circumstances allow American support for Ukraine to be interrupted.”

Support for Ukraine remains strong in Congress and late Saturday night, a bipartisan group of Senate leadership members, led by Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, released a statement vowing to ensure the United States continues “to provide critical and sustained security and economic support for Ukraine.”

NBC News quoted an unnamed U.S. official as saying Biden and the Defense Department have funds to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs “for a bit longer,” but it is “imperative” that Congress pass a Ukraine funding bill soon.

In the House, the lone Democrat to vote against the funding bill was Representative Mike Quigley of Illinois, the co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus. “Protecting Ukraine is in our national interest,” he said.

“This does look very chaotic, but this is not the first time it’s happened,” Todd Belt, director of the school of political management at The George Washington University, told VOA. “There is a price that has to be paid here. But that is the price of democracy. It does seem very messy sometimes. But eventually, usually you get some compromise.”

Such shutdowns have occurred four times in the last decade in the U.S., but often have lasted just a day or two until lawmakers reach a compromise to fully restart government operations. However, one shutdown that occurred during the administration of former President Donald Trump lasted 35 days, as he unsuccessfully sought funding to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border.
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China’s factory activity in September recorded its first expansion in six months, an official survey said Saturday, providing another sign that the world’s second-largest economy is gradually improving after its post-pandemic malaise.

According to the government statistics bureau and an official industry group, the monthly purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.2 this month from 49.7 in August measured on a 100-point scale. Numbers above 50 indicate activity is increasing.

Measures of production, new orders and employment all rose from August, the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing said. But the bureau’s senior statistician, Zhao Qinghe, said the manufacturing industry still faces some difficulties in its recovery and development.

Since China lifted its tough COVID-19 restrictions, its leaders have been trying to boost the economy with a series of measures and promising to support entrepreneurs who generate jobs and wealth.

Performances in some sectors have shown improvements, including in factory output and retail sales. But China’s property crisis is still dragging on its economic growth.

Official data says the index measuring nonmanufacturing commercial activities grew to 51.7 from August’s 51. The composite index rose to 52 from 51.3.

Zhao said the improvement indicated by the latest indexes suggests the level of economic activity is rebounding. As government policies take effect, positive economic factors are increasing, he said.

However, China’s economic rebound remained uneven. Real estate developers are struggling to repay heavy debts in a time of slack demand. Last month, investment in real estate fell 8.8% from the year before.

The heavily indebted Chinese property developer China Evergrande Group Investment suspended trading in its shares Thursday in Hong Kong. It said authorities had informed it that its chairman, Hui Ka Yan, was subjected to “mandatory measures in accordance with the law due to suspicion of illegal crimes.”

Observers are watching how other near-term data will play out, including those on consumer spending during the eight-day autumn holiday period that began Friday. The break — which covered the Mid-Autumn Festival Friday and includes National Day on Sunday — is the longest week of public holidays since COVID rules were eased in December.

China State Railway Group Co. recorded a record daily high of 20 million passenger rail trips Friday, official news agency Xinhua reported.

China’s economy grew at a 6.3% annual pace in the second quarter of 2023, much slower than the 7%-plus growth that analysts had forecast based on the anemic pace of activity the year before. Roughly 1 in 5 young workers is unemployed — a record high that adds to pressures on consumer spending.
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The United States is on the brink of a federal government shutdown after hard-right Republicans in Congress rejected a longshot effort to keep offices open as they fight for steep spending cuts and strict border security measures that Democrats and the White House say are too extreme.

With no deal in place by midnight Saturday, federal workers will face furloughs, more than 2 million active-duty and reserve military troops will work without pay and programs and services that Americans rely on from coast to coast will begin to face shutdown disruptions.

The Senate will be in for a rare Saturday session to advance its own bipartisan package that is supported by Democrats and Republicans and would fund the government for the short-term, through November 17.

But even if the Senate can rush to wrap up its work this weekend to pass the bill, which also includes money for Ukraine aid and U.S. disaster assistance, it won’t prevent an almost certain shutdown amid the chaos in the House. On Friday, a massive hard-right revolt left Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s latest plan to collapse.

“Congress has only one option to avoid a shutdown — bipartisanship,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky echoed the sentiment, warning his own hard-right colleagues there is nothing to gain by shutting down the federal government.

“It heaps unnecessary hardships on the American people, as well as the brave men and women who keep us safe,” McConnell said.

The federal government is heading straight into a shutdown that poses grave uncertainty for federal workers in states all across America and the people who depend on them — from troops to border control agents to office workers, scientists and others.

Families that rely on Head Start for children, food benefits and countless other programs large and small are confronting potential interruptions or outright closures. At the airports, Transportation Security Administration officers and air traffic controllers are expected to work without pay, but travelers could face delays in updating their U.S. passports or other travel documents.

Congress has been unable to fund the federal agencies or pass a temporary bill in time to keep offices open for the start of the new budget year Sunday in large part because McCarthy, a Republican from California, has faced unsurmountable resistance from right-flank Republicans who are refusing to run government as usual.

McCarthy’s last-ditch plan to keep the federal government temporarily open collapsed in dramatic fashion Friday as a robust faction of 21 hard-right holdouts opposed the package, despite steep spending cuts of nearly 30% to many agencies and severe border security provisions, calling it insufficient.

The White House and Democrats rejected the Republican approach as too extreme. The Democrats voted against it.

The House bill’s failure a day before Saturday’s deadline to fund the government leaves few options to prevent a shutdown.

“It’s not the end yet; I’ve got other ideas,” McCarthy told reporters.

Later Friday, after a heated closed-door meeting of House Republicans that pushed into the evening, McCarthy said he was considering options — among them, a two-week stopgap funding measure similar to the effort from hard-right senators that would be certain to exclude any help for Ukraine in the war against Russia.

Even though the House bill already cut routine Ukraine aid, an intensifying Republican resistance to the war effort means the Senate’s plan to attach $6 billion that Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is seeking from the U.S. may have support from Democrats but not from most of McCarthy’s Republicans.

Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky is working to stop that aid in the Senate package.

The White House has brushed aside McCarthy’s overtures to meet with President Joe Biden after the speaker walked away from the debt deal they brokered earlier this year that set budget levels.

Catering to his hard-right flank, McCarthy had returned to the spending limits the conservatives demanded back in January as part of the deal-making to help him become the House speaker.

The House package would not have cut the Defense, Veterans or Homeland Security departments but would have slashed almost all other agencies by up to 30% — steep hits to a vast array of programs, services and departments Americans routinely depend on.

It also added strict new border security provisions that would kickstart building a wall at the southern border with Mexico, among other measures. Additionally, the package would have set up a bipartisan debt commission to address the nation’s mounting debt load.

As soon as the floor debate began, McCarthy’s chief Republican critic, Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, announced he would vote against the package, urging his colleagues to “not surrender.”

Gaetz said afterward that the speaker’s bill “went down in flames as I’ve told you all week it would.”

He and others rejecting the temporary measure want the House to keep pushing through the 12 individual spending bills needed to fund the government, typically a weekslong process, as they pursue their conservative priorities.

Republican leaders announced later Friday that the House would stay in session next week, rather than return home, to keep working on some of the 12 spending bills.

Some of the Republican holdouts, including Gaetz, are allies of former President Donald Trump, who is Biden’s chief rival in the 2024 race. Trump has been encouraging the Republicans to fight hard for their priorities and even to “shut it down.”

The hard right, led by Gaetz, has been threatening McCarthy’s ouster, with a looming vote to try to remove him from the speaker’s office unless he meets the conservative demands. Still, it’s unclear if any other Republican would have support from the House majority to lead the party.

Late Friday, Trump turned his ire to McConnell on social media, complaining the Republican leader and other GOP senators are “weak and ineffective” and making compromises with Democrats. He urged them, “Don’t do it!”
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How do you cook a meal when a staple ingredient is unaffordable? 

This question is playing out in households around the world as they face shortages of essential foods like rice, cooking oil and onions. That is because countries have imposed restrictions on the food they export to protect their own supplies from the combined effect of the war in Ukraine, El Nino’s threat to food production and increasing damage from climate change. 

For Caroline Kyalo, a 28-year-old who works in a salon in Kenya’s capital of Nairobi, it was a question of trying to figure out how to cook for her two children without onions. Restrictions on the export of the vegetable by neighboring Tanzania has led prices to triple. 

Kyalo initially tried to use spring onions instead, but those also got too expensive. As did the prices of other necessities, like cooking oil and corn flour. 

“I just decided to be cooking once a day,” she said. 

Despite the East African country’s fertile lands and large workforce, the high cost of growing and transporting produce and the worst drought in decades led to a drop in local production. Plus, people preferred red onions from Tanzania because they were cheaper and lasted longer. By 2014, Kenya was getting half of its onions from its neighbor, according to a U.N. Food Agriculture Organization report. 

At Nairobi’s major food market, Wakulima, the prices for onions from Tanzania were the highest in seven years, seller Timothy Kinyua said. 

Some traders have adjusted by getting produce from Ethiopia, and others have switched to selling other vegetables, but Kinyua is sticking to onions. 

“It’s something we can’t cook without,” he said. 

Tanzania’s onion limits this year are part of the “contagion” of food restrictions from countries spooked by supply shortages and increased demand for their produce, said Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. 

Globally, 41 food export restrictions from 19 countries are in effect, ranging from outright bans to taxes, according to the institute. 

India banned shipments of some rice earlier this year, resulting in a shortfall of roughly a fifth of global exports. Neighboring Myanmar, the world’s fifth-biggest rice supplier, responded by stopping some exports of the grain. 

India also restricted shipments of onions after erratic rainfall — fueled by climate change — damaged crops. This sent prices in neighboring Bangladesh soaring, and authorities are scrambling to find new sources for the vegetable. 

Elsewhere, a drought in Spain took its toll on olive oil production. As European buyers turned to Turkey, olive oil prices soared in the Mediterranean country, prompting authorities there to restrict exports. Morocco, also coping with a drought ahead of its recent deadly earthquake, stopped exporting onions, potatoes and tomatoes in February. 

This isn’t the first time food prices have been in a tumult. Prices for staples like rice and wheat more than doubled in 2007-2008, but the world had ample food stocks it could draw on and was able to replenish those in subsequent years. 

But that cushion has shrunk in the past two years, and climate change means food supplies could very quickly run short of demand and spike prices, said Glauber, former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

“I think increased volatility is certainly the new normal,” he said. 

Food prices worldwide, experts say, will be determined by the interplay of three factors: how El Nino plays out and how long it lasts, whether bad weather damages crops and prompts more export restrictions, and the future of Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

The warring nations are both major global suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other food, especially to developing nations where food prices have risen and people are going hungry. 

An El Nino is a natural phenomenon that shifts global weather patterns and can result in extreme weather, ranging from drought to flooding. While scientists believe climate change is making this El Nino stronger, its exact impact on food production is impossible to glean until after it’s occurred. 

The early signs are worrying. 

India experienced its driest August in a century, and Thailand is facing a drought that has sparked fears about the world’s sugar supplies. The two are the largest exporters of sugar after Brazil. 

Less rainfall in India also dashed food exporters’ hopes that the new rice harvest in October would end the trade restrictions and stabilize prices. 

“It doesn’t look like [rice] prices will be coming down anytime soon,” said Aman Julka, director of Wesderby India Private Limited. 

Most at risk are nations that rely heavily on food imports. The Philippines, for instance, imports 14% of its food, according to the World Bank, and storm damage to crops could mean further shortfalls. Rice prices surged 8.7% in August from a year earlier, more than doubling from 4.2% in July. 

Food store owners in the capital of Manila are losing money, with prices increasing rapidly since September 1 and customers who used to snap up supplies in bulk buying smaller quantities. 

“We cannot save money anymore. It is like we just work so that we can have food daily,” said Charina Em, 32, who owns a store in the Trabajo market. 

Cynthia Esguerra, 66, has had to choose between food or medicine for her high cholesterol, gallstones and urinary issues. Even then, she can only buy half a kilo of rice at a time — insufficient for her and her husband. 

“I just don’t worry about my sickness. I leave it up to God. I don’t buy medicines anymore, I just put it there to buy food, our loans,” she said. 

The climate risks aren’t limited to rice but apply to anything that needs stable rainfall to thrive, including livestock, said Elyssa Kaur Ludher, a food security researcher at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. Vegetables, fruit trees and chickens will all face heat stress, raising the risk that food will spoil, she said. 

This constricts food supplies further, and if grain exports from Ukraine aren’t resolved, there will be additional shortages in feed for livestock and fertilizer, Ludher said. 

Russia’s July withdrawal from a wartime agreement that ensured ships could safely transport Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea was a blow to global food security, largely leaving only expensive and divisive routes through Europe for the war-torn country’s exports. 

The conflict also has hurt Ukraine’s agricultural production, with analysts saying farmers aren’t planting nearly as much corn and wheat. 

“This will affect those who already feel food affordability stresses,” Ludher said. 
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Low-income Kenyans have been hit hardest by high inflation, a new report says.

Low-income households experienced a challenging 2022 because of the increased cost of living, said Rose Ngugi, director of the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, or KIPPRA.

“When food inflation is going up, then everybody is affected, and more so the low-income households, who spend about 60% of their income on food,” Ngugi said. “So, anytime food prices go up, then the cost-of-living increases, and the low-income earners are hit or bear a heavy burden.”

KIPPRA recently released the Kenya Economic Report 2023, which said officials tried this year to reduce 2022’s inflation rate of 9.6% to a range of 2.5% to 7.5%, the targeted range of Kenya’s Central Bank.

The report said 77% of workers earned less than the minimum wage, which covers approximately half of living costs.

Kenyan Finance Minister Njuguna Ndung’u blamed companies’ appetite for monopoly and dominance, which reduces market competition.

“The new administration is concerned with the problems that have led many Kenyans to sink into abject poverty,” Ndung’u said. “One of the identified problems is the market capture, so that those at the bottom of the pyramid do not get returns for their sweat and investment.”

After years of borrowing to finance infrastructure projects such as roads and railways, Kenya now struggles to repay the debt. The current government under President William Ruto emphasizes the importance of robust revenue collection to service the country’s debt and economic development.

Samuel Nyandemo, an economics lecturer at the University of Nairobi, said the government needs to support citizens by reducing taxes on basic commodities.

“The president means well for this country,” Nyandemo said. “He needs to come out of the box and put away this appetite of borrowing with a view of raising revenue, removing subsidies gradually and, more importantly, reducing certain taxes — particularly taxes relating to increasing the cost of living.

“We need to see the gradual removal of subsidies on maize flour, on oil products, cooking oil and, more importantly, on fuel,” he said.

Kenya had record-high fuel prices in September, with gasoline reaching $1.42 per liter. That price heightened concerns among an already financially burdened population.

The government has asked its creditors, particularly China, for more time to restore economic stability after 10 years of borrowing.
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At sunset, Bangkok’s Huai Khwang district comes alive with Chinese-speaking pedestrians bustling to their favorite hot pot restaurants among the many lining Pracharat Bamphen Road.

The hungry parade is just one indication of how an influx of Chinese residents is transforming the 15-square-kilometer (5.8-square-mile) neighborhood in the city’s eastern reaches, with new arrivals restoring the pre-pandemic inflow.

With the Chinese Embassy in nearby Din Daeng exerting a magnet-like force for Huai Khwang, local Thais now call the area “New Chinatown.” Some refer to it as a special administration region of China, akin to Hong Kong or Macao, dubbing it the “Taiguo.”

And although Thailand celebrates the new year, or Songkran, on April 13, Huai Khwang district officials held a Lunar New Year celebration on January 19 this year to recognize the changing demographics.

The changes are coming with challenges, analysts say. Rising rents and prices for residential and commercial properties reflect the arrival of Chinese emigrants who are willing, and able, to pay more than local Thais, many of whom now face a housing affordability crunch.

Patcharee Pabua, a 42-year-old employee of a nonprofit organization, has lived and worked in Huai Khwang for more than seven years. She has seen the neighborhood change in real time — before, during and after the pandemic — as the area transformed from a Thai neighborhood to a Chinese enclave.

“When COVID-19 initially hit, many Chinese individuals returned to China, and Chinese-owned businesses closed down,” she said. “However, they returned once the COVID situation improved. Now, it’s difficult to spot Thai restaurants along Pracharat Bamphen street. It’s predominantly Chinese restaurants.”

The arrival of so many Chinese businesses, almost every one of them with a Thai partner to meet restrictions on foreign ownership, has driven up land rental prices.

Unable to compete with deep-pocketed Chinese expats, many Thai business owners who can’t afford the higher rents go out of business. Only local Thais who operate food stalls that don’t require rented land are surviving, according to longtime Huai Khwang residents.

Pabua said that the rising prices are centered on condominium costs. Lower-tier apartments are still relatively affordable for Thais, with monthly rents ranging from 3,000 to 10,000 baht, she said, or about $82 to $273.

This price range suits many Thais, whose average monthly income is around $382, according to the Department of Employment’s statistics. Those prices also attract Chinese nationals, who make up roughly 50% of the residents in her apartment complex, Pabua estimated.

Bangkok condo rents, which decreased during the pandemic, have now surged to new highs. Data from The List, a real estate site, from February 2020, show a median monthly rent in Huai Khwang of $409. As of May 1, 2023, the rental prices for all condominiums in Huai Khwang averaged around $622, according to property aggregator Dotproperty.

Former real estate agent Chitipat Inna, who specializes in representing properties in Huai Khwang and nearby areas, said that most of his rental clients are Chinese, often seeking short-term leases of three to six months.

Chinese buyers appear undeterred by the rising prices.

Pabua, whose apartment in Huai Kwang costs $136 per month, said, “It’s no surprise that most condo renters are Chinese, as they often have a larger accommodation budget. Many Thais simply can’t afford such rents.”
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New Delhi’s bid to expand its economic and diplomatic clout beyond Asia received a major boost with the announcement at this month’s G20 summit of ambitious plans to develop a new trade route running from India through the Middle East to Europe.

The so-called India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, or IMEC, is backed by the United States and is widely seen as a challenge to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has already developed major infrastructure projects in some of the same countries.

But the proposal, involving a network of new shipping and rail lines, stands to shake up the existing order in other ways as well, not least by establishing new direct trade routes between Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf.

For India, analysts say, the program offers a capstone to a yearslong effort by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to boost trade and forge ties with the Gulf states, the source of much of its oil and gas, and home to a large Indian diaspora.

This “concerted effort has gained momentum over the past several years,” said John Calabrese, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

“India’s vigorous efforts to strengthen economic cooperation with the Middle East have been met with open arms and reciprocation,” Calabrese added in an interview. “The Gulf states, in particular, view India as a rising power with great market and human capital potential.”

Trade already growing

Trade between India and the Arab world has seen sustained growth, already surpassing $240 billion a year. Bilateral trade between India and the United Arab Emirates alone amounted to $84 billion as of the end of March 2023, while trade with Saudi Arabia topped $53 billion. The region supplies approximately 60% of India’s total crude oil imports.

Calabrese sees the IMEC project as having strategic as well as economic value for India, carrying its strategic rivalry with China into new territory while offering countries in the Middle East an alternative to relying on China or the United States.

“India’s importance to the Gulf countries has risen as they chart a course for diversifying and balancing their relations with the world’s major powers,” he said.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, agreed that India can make significant diplomatic gains if it can navigate the hurdles posed in the Middle East by regional conflicts, historical animosities and competition from other global powers.

India has already strengthened its ties with some of the most significant players in the region, from Egypt and Saudi Arabia to Israel, he told VOA.

“What’s also notable is that while India’s relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel have really taken off, New Delhi’s ties with their respective longstanding rivals, Iran and the Palestinians, have not become fraught, even though they’ve become less robust,” he said.

‘Nothing short of historic’

India can also expect to establish closer links in Europe, where officials are enthusiastic about IMEC, which would establish new shipping routes between India and the United Arab Emirates, alongside a freight rail system traversing the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel. From there, goods could be transported to European countries.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hailed the venture as “nothing short of historic,” emphasizing that it would slash transit time between India and Europe by 40%. She underlined that IMEC represents the most direct link thus far connecting India, the Gulf and Europe.

Saudi Arabia’s Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih went further in his endorsement, likening IMEC to the “Silk Route and Spice Road.” The initiative is projected to incorporate essential infrastructure elements such as electricity cables and pipelines for clean hydrogen.

“The goal is, of course, to strengthen India’s economy by facilitating more trade in more markets,” Kugelman said. “But also about deepening important partnerships and scaling up Indian investment in a region that New Delhi views as highly strategic — because of its location, its large Indian diaspora and high energy trade with India.”

Kugelman sees the initiative as a natural extension of the growing strategic relationship between the United States and India, marked by new alliances, including the Quad, which also draws in Japan and Australia.

“Their interests in the [Middle East] align, in terms of support for connectivity and commercial projects. And so, India’s engagement there allows the U.S. and India to cooperate in a region outside the Indo-Pacific,” he said. “I do think that India’s deepening footprint in the Middle East will introduce a new phase of great power competition.”

Meanwhile, the Middle East could become a new battleground for India-China competition, Kugelman said.

“Beijing has become a bigger player in the region in recent years, as seen by its strategic agreement with Iran and its brokering of the Iran-Saudi Arabia rapprochement deal,” he said. “India, working with the U.S. and its European partners, will want to push back against all that.”
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Some Zimbabweans living in abject poverty are reacting angrily to claims by President Emmerson Mnangagwa that the country’s economy is the fastest growing in the southern African region. Columbus Mavhunga reports from Harare, where some economists and members of the main opposition say the president is being misinformed or does not understand basic economics. Camera —  Blessing Chigwenhembe.
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The earthquake that killed nearly 3,000 people in Morocco’s High Atlas Mountains this month also took a toll on the region’s flourishing tourist industry — a key source of jobs and income. The raft of tourist cancellations adds to the many challenges facing impoverished mountain communities as they begin the difficult task of rebuilding. Lisa Bryant reports for VOA from the Moroccan town of Amizmiz.
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The Bank of England has paused nearly two years of interest rate increases after a surprising fall in U.K. inflation eased concerns about the pace of price rises.

In a development Thursday that few predicted just two days ago, the central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at a 15-year high of 5.25%. It comes to the relief of millions of homeowners who are facing higher mortgage rates. 

The decision was split, with four of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voting for a hike.

Central banks worldwide appear to be near the end of an aggressive rate-hiking cycle meant to curb an outburst of inflation triggered by the bounceback from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The U.S. Federal Reserve left rates unchanged Wednesday.

Clearly influencing the bank’s decision was news Wednesday that inflation unexpectedly fell to 6.7% in August, its lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Inflation, however, is still way above the bank’s target rate of 2% and higher than in any other Group of Seven major economy.

Higher interest rates, which cool the economy by making it more expensive to borrow, have contributed to bringing down inflation worldwide.

But for many homeowners, the pain has yet to hit. Unlike in the U.S., for example, most homeowners in Britain lock in mortgage rates for only a few years, so those whose deals expire soon know that they face much higher borrowing costs in light of the sharp rise in interest rates over the past couple of years.

Like other central banks around the world, the Bank of England has raised interest rates aggressively from near zero as it sought to counter price rises first stoked by supply chain issues during the coronavirus pandemic and then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which pushed up food and energy costs. U.K. inflation hit a peak of 11.1% in October 2022.

As inflation has eased, the hiking cycle looks to be nearing an end.

The Swiss National Bank joined the Fed in holding rates steady on Thursday, but in a busy day for central bank action in Europe, Sweden’s and Norway’s central banks pushed ahead with quarter-point hikes.

The European Central Bank, which sets interest rates for the 20 European Union countries that use the euro currency, last week hinted that its 10th straight hike could be its last. 
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