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China has told its automakers to halt big investment in European countries that support extra tariffs on Chinese-built electric vehicles, two people briefed about the matter said, a move likely to further divide Europe.

The new European Union tariffs of up to 45.3% came into effect on Wednesday after a year-long investigation that divided the bloc and prompted retaliation from Beijing.

Ten EU members including France, Poland and Italy supported tariffs in a vote this month, in which five members including Germany opposed them and 12 abstained.

Chinese automakers including BYD, SAIC, and Geely were told at a meeting held by the Ministry of Commerce on Oct. 10 that they should pause their heavy asset investment plans such as factories in countries that backed the proposal, said the people.

They declined to be named, as the meeting was not public.

Several foreign automakers also attended the meeting, where the participants were told to be prudent about their investments in countries that abstained from voting and were “encouraged” to invest in those that voted against the tariffs, the people said.

Geely declined to comment. SAIC, BYD and the commerce ministry did not immediately reply to requests for comment.

The move by Chinese authorities to suspend some investment in Europe would suggest the government is seeking leverage in talks with the EU over an alternative to tariffs, keen to avoid a sharp fall in EV exports to the key market.

Europe accounted for more than 40% of EVs shipped from China in 2023, according to Reuters’ calculations using data from the China Passenger Car Association.

Given 100% tariffs on Chinese-made EVs in the United States and Canada, a drop in EV exports to Europe would risk deepening overcapacity Chinese automakers face in their home market.

Investments in Europe

During a visit to China by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez last month, a Chinese company agreed to build a $1 billion plant in Spain to make machinery used for hydrogen production. Spain was one of the 12 EU states that abstained.

Italy and France are among EU countries that have been courting Chinese automakers for investments, but they have also warned of the risks that a flood of cheap Chinese EVs pose to European manufacturers.

State-owned SAIC, China’s second-largest auto exporter, is choosing a site for an EV factory in Europe and has been separately planning to open its second European parts center in France this year to meet growing demand for its MG-brand cars.

An aide to France’s junior trade minister Sophie Primas said they had no comment to make ahead of her trip to China next week.

The Italian government is in talks with Chery, China’s largest automaker by exports, and other Chinese automakers, including Dongfeng Motors, about potential investments.

Italy’s industry ministry declined to comment. Dongfeng didn’t immediately respond, while Chery declined to comment.

BYD is building a plant in Hungary, which voted against the tariffs. The Chinese EV giant has also been considering relocating its European headquarters from the Netherlands to Hungary due to cost concerns, two separate people with knowledge of the matter said.

Even before Beijing issued its guidance, Chinese companies were cautious about independently setting up production sites in Europe, as it requires large sums of investment and a deep understanding of local laws and culture.

The automakers were also told at the Oct. 10 meeting that they should avoid separate investment discussions with European governments and instead work together to hold collective talks, the people said.

The directive follows a similar warning in July when the commerce ministry advised China’s automakers not to invest in countries such as India and Turkey, and to be cautious with investments in Europe.
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has joined several independent economists to express her frustration about low consumer spending and the property crisis in China. Some experts have expressed disappointment over Beijing’s limited measures to stimulate consumer spending, which is one of the biggest hurdles in the Chinese economy.

“Our view has been that raising consumer spending in China as a share of GDP (gross domestic product) is really important, along with measures to address problems in the property sector,” Yellen said recently. “So far, I would say, I haven’t really heard any policies on the Chinese side that address that.”

Yellen has criticized China for its focus on subsidizing large state-owned companies instead of working to revive the wider economy, the world’s second largest. Analysts have suggested that China should stop subsidizing manufacturing companies with the money of households.

The World Bank has predicted that China’s GDP growth will be 4.8% this year, short of the country’s 5% goal. It will slip further to 4.3% in 2025, the bank predicted.

Low consumer demand in China can bring down the rate of growth in the global economy and affect the prospects of businesses in the U.S. and other parts of the world.

“For U.S. companies like Apple, Nike, Microsoft, KFC, Starbucks, Coca-Cola, Tesla or General Motors, to name a few, China is a big market. Any increase or decrease in consumption in China can influence their bottom line,” Lourdes Casanova, director at Cornell University’s Emerging Markets Institute, told VOA.

There are serious fears about the U.S. and the European Union slipping into recession, said Francesco Sisci, an expert on China affairs and director of Appia Institute, an Italy-based think tank.

“In China, there’s deflation and no sign of getting out of it. If China doesn’t get out of deflation, it could multiply recessionary forces worldwide. It might actually happen,” Sisci said.

Tendency to save, not spend

China has taken several measures to revive the economy in recent weeks. They include lowering mortgage rates and cutting the reserve requirement ratios (RRR) to encourage banks to lend more money. The idea is to support households repaying home loans and encourage people to purchase more houses from the crisis-hit property business.

However, analysts are not convinced about the effectiveness of the move. “Housing demand is unlikely to see any meaningful revival just because of lower mortgage rates and down payment requirements, as experience shows,” the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) said in a commentary.

Casanova thinks low consumer demand is not an easy problem to resolve because the average Chinese believes in savings more than spending. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) as a percentage of GDP stands at 68% in the United States, 53% in Europe and 39% in China. Americans represent 31% of global PCE, while China’s people represent just 11%.

“There is room for improvement in China but, you can’t change consumers’ habits overnight and, clearly, Chinese consumers are much thriftier than the American ones,” she said. Americans often keep their cars outside the garage because garages are full of household items, clothes, toys, garage tools and other things, she pointed out.

One way to increase consumer demand is to increase salaries and take additional social security measures. But for companies that would increase production costs and hurt exports, Sisci said.

“What China needs is transformative reforms that would have a political price, and the ruling Communist Party is not eager to pay it,” he said.

Contradicting the World Bank’s view, China’s Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min said the economy was responding positively to a series of stimulus measures taken by the government.

“These initiatives aim to leverage government spending to stimulate overall social investment and consumption, thereby increasing effective market demand,” Liao said.
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Beijing — Beijing said Wednesday it had lodged a complaint with the World Trade Organization over the European Union’s decision to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese-made electric cars.

The extra taxes of up to 35% were announced Tuesday after an EU probe found Chinese state subsidies were undercutting European automakers, but the move has faced opposition from Germany and Hungary, which fear provoking Beijing’s ire and setting off a bitter trade war.

China slammed Brussels’s decision on Wednesday morning, saying it did not “agree with or accept” the tariffs and had filed a complaint under the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) dispute settlement mechanism.

“China will… take all necessary measures to firmly protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies,” Beijing’s commerce ministry said.

EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis said Tuesday that “by adopting these proportionate and targeted measures after a rigorous investigation, we’re standing up for fair market practices and for the European industrial base.”

“We welcome competition, including in the electric vehicle sector, but it must be underpinned by fairness and a level playing field,” he said.

But Germany’s main auto industry association warned the tariffs heightened the risk of “a far-reaching trade conflict,” while a Chinese trade group slammed the “politically motivated” decision even as it urged dialogue between the two sides.

The duties will come on top of the current 10 percent on imports of electric vehicles from China.

The decision became law following its publication in the EU’s official journal on Tuesday, and the duties will enter into force from Wednesday.

Once they do, the tariffs will be definitive and last for five years.

The extra duties also apply, at various rates, to vehicles made in China by foreign groups such as Tesla, which faces a tariff of 7.85%.

Chinese car giant Geely — one of the country’s largest sellers of EVs — faces an extra duty of 18.8%, while SAIC will be hit with the highest at 35.3 percent.

Ailing companies

The tariffs do not have the support of the majority of the EU’s 27 member states but in a vote early this month, the opposition was not enough to block them, which would have required at least 15 states representing 65% of the bloc’s population.

The EU launched the probe in a bid to protect its automobile industry, which employs around 14 million people.

France, which pushed for the investigation, welcomed the decision.

“The European Union is taking a crucial decision to protect and defend our trade interests, at a time when our car industry needs our support more than ever,” French Finance Minister Antoine Armand said in a statement.

But Europe’s bigger carmakers, including German auto titan Volkswagen, have criticized the EU’s approach and have urged Brussels to resolve the issue through talks.

The extra tariffs are “a step backwards for free global trade and thus for prosperity, job preservation and growth in Europe,” the German Association of the Automotive Industry’s president Hildegard Mueller said on Tuesday after the announcement.

Volkswagen, which has been hit hard by rising competition in China, has previously said the tariffs would not improve the competitiveness of the European automotive industry.

That warning came weeks before the ailing giant announced plans on Monday to close at least three factories in Germany and cull tens of thousands of jobs.

Retaliatory moves

Talks continue between the EU and China, and the duties can be lifted if they reach a satisfactory agreement, but officials on both sides have pointed to differences.

Discussions have been focused on minimum prices that would replace the duties and force carmakers in China to sell vehicles at a certain cost to offset subsidies.

“We remain open to a possible alternative solution that would be effective in addressing the problems identified and WTO-compatible,” Dombrovskis said.

The Chinese Chamber of Commerce to the EU urged Brussels and Beijing “to accelerate talks on establishing minimum prices and, ultimately, to eliminate these tariffs.”

The EU could now face Chinese retaliation, with Beijing already saying on October 8 it would impose provisional tariffs on European brandy.

Beijing has also launched probes into EU subsidies of some dairy and pork products imported into China.

Trade tensions between China and the EU are not limited to electric cars, with Brussels also investigating Chinese subsidies for solar panels and wind turbines.

The EU is not alone in levying heavy tariffs on Chinese electric cars.

Canada and the United States have in recent months imposed much higher tariffs of 100 percent on Chinese electric car imports.
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BEIJING — China’s stimulus efforts could come with a cost and they must be carried out alongside reforms to ensure sustainable economic growth, Liu Shijin, a former central bank adviser, said in remarks published Wednesday.

“Stimulus could come with a cost and we should combine stimulus with reforms,” Chinese media outlet Yicai quoted Liu as saying at a forum on Tuesday. Liu said funds should be used for enhancing areas that are critical for long-term economic development.

China should prioritize improving basic healthcare services for the country’s 300 million internal migrant workers as it faces a significant public healthcare shortfall, Liu said.

On Tuesday, Reuters reported that China is considering approving next week new debt issuance of more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to help tackle hidden local debt and fund buybacks of idle land and reduce a giant inventory of unsold flats, in coming years.

Analysts expect such efforts to be a stabilizer for the economy rather than the instant growth booster that markets have craved.

China is struggling to tackle a debt overhang from previous stimulus. In 2008-2009, a 4 trillion yuan ($575 billion) spending package largely shielded China’s economy from the global financial crisis but saddled local governments with mountains of debt.

Liu said last month that China could issue ultra-long-term treasury bonds within two years to generate at least 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) worth of stimulus to the economy, according to state media.

At a key meeting in July, Chinese leaders outlined reform steps ranging from developing advanced industries to improving local government finances, but it remains unclear on how quickly such steps will be implemented.

China needs to expand its middle class group from around 400 million, currently about a third of the population – to 800-900 million in the next decade by speeding up urbanization and addressing disparities in urban-rural public services, Liu said.

But Liu cautioned against stimulus through “helicopter money,” or direct cash handouts for residents, arguing this would primarily benefit wealthier residents, while low-income groups would see minimal relief given their basic needs.

 
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NAIROBI, KENYA — Some companies are coming up with creative ways of making electric vehicles a more realistic option in power-challenged areas of Africa.

Countries in Africa have been slow adopters of battery-powered vehicles because finding reliable sources of electricity is a challenge in many places.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies described Africa as “the most energy-deficient continent in the world” and said that any progress made in electricity access in the last five years has been reversed by the pandemic and population growth.

Onesmus Otieno, for one, regrets trading in his diesel-powered motor bike for an electric one. He earns his living making deliveries and ferrying passengers around Nairobi, Kenya’s capital, with his bike.

The two-wheeled taxis popularly known as “boda boda” in Swahili are commonly used in Kenya and throughout Africa. Kenyan authorities recently introduced the electric bikes to phase out diesel ones. Otieno is among the few riders who adopted them, but he said finding a place to charge his bike has been a headache.

Sometimes the battery dies while he is carrying a customer, he said, while a charging station is far away. So, he has to end that trip and cancel other requests.

To address the problem, Chinese company Beijing Sebo created a mobile application that allows users of EVs to request a charge through the app. Then, charging equipment is brought to the user’s location.

Lin Lin, general manager for overseas business of Beijing Sebo, said because the company produces the equipment, it can control costs.

“We can deploy the product … in any country they need, and they don’t need to build or fix charging stations,” Lin said. “We can move to the location of the user, and we can bring electricity to electric vehicles.”

Lin said the mobile charging vans use electricity generated from solid waste and can charge up to five cars at one time for about $7 per vehicle — less for a motorbike.

Countries in Africa have been slow to adopt electric vehicles because there is a lack of infrastructure to support the technology, analysts say. The cost of EVs is another barrier, said clean energy expert Ajay Mathur.

”Yes, the capital cost is more,” Mathur said. “The first cost is more, but you recover it in about six years or so. We are at the beginning of the revolution.”

Electric motor bike maker Spiro offers a battery-swapping service in several countries to address the lack of EV infrastructure.

But studies show that for many African countries, access to reliable and affordable electricity remains a challenge. There are frequent power cuts, outages and voltage fluctuations in several regions.

Companies such as Beijing Sebo and Spiro are finding ways around the lack of power in Africa.

”We want to solve the problem of charging anxiety anywhere you are,” Lin said. 

This story originated in VOA’s Mandarin Service.
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U.S. farmers are facing economic headwinds as they head to the polls this election year. VOA’s Kane Farabaugh has more from Illinois
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RIYADH — Saudi Arabia is “committed” to maintaining crude capacity at 12.3 million barrels per day, Energy Minister Prince Abulaziz bin Salman said on Tuesday.

Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference in Riyadh, he said the world’s largest oil exporter would maintain its crude targets while also pursuing its climate aims.

“We will monetize every molecule of energy this land has, period,” Prince Abdulaziz said. That policy would be carried out hand in hand with other goals, such as emission reduction, he added.

“We are committed to maintaining 12.3 million (barrels per day) of crude capacity and we are proud of that,” he said.

He was speaking ahead of an announcement, expected on Tuesday, about a carbon credit exchange involving the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund.

Saudi Arabia backed a deal at last year’s U.N. climate conference, COP28, giving countries more leeway to follow their own pathways to cleaner sources of energy.

More than 100 countries had lobbied at that summit, held in the United Arab Emirates, for the “phase out” of fossil fuels, but faced opposition from the Saudi-led oil producer group OPEC, which argued that the world can cut emissions without shunning specific fuels.

“We are not ashamed of our record when it comes to emissions,” Prince Abdulaziz told the FII conference. “We are proud of it, but the pundits try to create a smoke screen not to allow us to be on the so-called higher moral ground.”

He also said Saudi Arabia would update its national climate pledge under the Paris Agreement to raise its target.

“We ensure we will have a refreshed NDC [Nationally Determined Contribution] next year, and I can guarantee you out of knowing the number will be higher.”

 
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Nairobi — Bioeconomy is the production, use, and conservation of biological resources to produce goods that sustain communities. A new report says the promotion of bioeconomy as a way to deal with climate change holds promise for rural areas in Africa and elsewhere.

As the world grapples with how to cope with the effects of climate change on the environment, food production, and people’s livelihoods, experts say the bioeconomy can offer solutions to those challenges and help achieve sustainable development.

Their conclusions are presented in a new report, The State of the Bioeconomy in East Africa Report 2024, authored by the Stockholm Environment Institute, the East African Science and Technology Commission, and the International Center of Insects Physiology and Ecology, or ICIPE.

The authors say the use of renewable biological resources, and the application of related knowledge, science and technology offers a chance to drive economic growth and — most importantly — boost food security while protecting the environment.

For example, Regina Muthama is a farmer who trains other farmers in her community in Eastern Kenya, where there is often a shortage of rain to grow food. She says she plants several types of crops and trees together to maximize the water supply, and so the trees can shade crops from the strong African sun.

“We are growing trees, which we integrate with crops so that when we water the trees, we can also water the crops that can give us food. The kind of trees we plant can mitigate climate change, prevent soil erosion, and give us good oxygen,” she said.

Experts say Eastern Africa is home to vast agricultural fertile lands, biodiversity, and a youthful population, which positions the region as a leader in bioeconomy innovation.

Abdou Tenkouano is the director general of ICIPE Kenya. Speaking at the Global Biodiversity Summit (GBS) this week in Nairobi, he said bioeconomy development needs to provide opportunities for young people, and develop ways to meet people’s food needs.

“We must also meet the employment needs of the youth, who are the largest demographic segment in Africa and the global south,” he said. “We are in a climate crisis, which is now an existential threat. We must adopt new ways of production and consumption that are sustainable. The bioeconomy offers this new model of sustainable economic growth.”

According to the Stockholm Environment Institute, more than 65 percent of people living in Eastern Africa depend on biological resources for food, energy, medicine, and other purposes.

Venter Mwongera is the chairperson of national and international engagements at the Intersectoral Forum on Agrobiodiversity and Agroecology in Kenya. She explains the benefits of embracing the bioeconomy.

“We can continue growing our economy, contributing to GDP and contributing to job creation because these industries that manufacture the produce or products we get from agriculture minimize the emission of greenhouse gases, which means that we will have a cleaner environment. It also means that jobs will be retained and more will be created, and there will also be sustainable food production,” said Mwongera.

The East African Community regional bloc has developed a bioeconomy strategy that aims to have sustainable industrialization, improve food and nutrition security, improve health, and create bio-based products which are derived from plants, animals and microorganisms.

Tenkouano says ICIPE is trying to show the way.

“We develop and deploy nature-positive solutions for insect pests and vector management. We also lead research in insects as alternative sources of protein for food and feed and agents of organic waste conversion,” he said.

Experts say the bioeconomy as a principle is winning supporters. However, a lack of financing, poor infrastructure, low agricultural productivity, and excessive government regulation still present challenges to broader adoption.
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WASHINGTON — The war in Sudan is likely to cause heavy economic damage in neighboring countries, the IMF’s deputy director for Africa, Catherine Pattillo, told AFP.

“What is going on there for the people in Sudan is just so heart wrenching and devastating. For all of the neighboring countries, too,” she said in an interview in Washington ahead of the publication Friday of the International Monetary Fund’s regional outlook for sub-Saharan Africa.

“A number of these countries that are neighbors are also fragile countries with their own challenges,” she said. “And then to be confronted with the refugees, the security issues, the trade issues, is very challenging for their growth.”

The IMF’s report predicted that the Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia and South Sudan could be particularly hard hit by the ongoing conflict in Sudan.

For South Sudan, the situation has become particularly worrying following the loss in February of one of its main sources of income after an oil export pipeline was damaged in Sudan.

The pipeline is crucial for transporting South Sudanese crude oil abroad, which is especially important given that oil accounts for around 90% of the landlocked country’s exports.

The war in Sudan has been raging since April 2023 between the army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, of his former deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is also known as Hemedti.

The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives, according to the United Nations.

More than 10.7 million people have been displaced across the country, and a further 2.3 million have fled to neighboring countries.

The conflict has also exacerbated food insecurity; a famine was declared in July in the Zamzam camp for displaced people near the town of el-Facher, in Darfur.

“You could think of Sudan [and] also some of the security issues in the Sahelian countries, also affecting growth,” Pattillo said. “Those are the internal conflicts.”

At the same time, other “external conflicts” such as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are also affecting the cost of food, fertilizer and energy, she said.

The IMF noted that rising protectionism was also having a negative impact on growth in Africa at a time when trade tensions are translating into tariff hikes between the world’s three most powerful trading blocs: the United States, Europe and China.

The economic slowdown in developed countries and China still represents a major challenge for African countries, the IMF noted, predicting growth in sub-Saharan Africa of 4.2% next year.

This is slightly better than the 3.6% growth expected this year.
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Iranian photographer Tannaz was on her way to Tehran’s airport when European sanctions on flag carrier Iran Air forced her to return home, unable to make it to work in Paris.

It was within hours of the European Union announcing measures last week against prominent Iranian officials and entities, including airlines, accused of involvement in the transfer of missiles and drones for Russia to use in its war against Ukraine.

Tehran has consistently said such accusations were baseless, but with Western governments unconvinced, the latest sanctions went ahead, dealing a blow to Iran’s already embattled airline industry.

Unable to make it to her photoshoot in Paris as Iran Air had grounded all Europe-bound flights over the sanctions, Tannaz was left grappling with the effect on her business, uncertain how she may keep working abroad under the new restrictions.

“Considering the current situation and higher flight price options, I think I will lose many customers,” said the 37-year-old who gave her first name only, fearing repercussions.

With no other Iranian airline serving European destinations, any alternative to the canceled Iran Air route would likely cost her much more and include a layover, increasing travel time.

Many Western and other international airlines had already suspended their Iran services, citing heightened tensions and the risk of regional conflict since the Gaza war broke out more than a year ago.

 Host of challenges

Despite having largely avoided being drawn into the conflict, Iran backs Palestinian group Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States, United Kingdom, European Union and others, and whose October 7, 2023 attack on Israel sparked the war, and has launched two direct attacks on Israel.

The latest missile attack earlier this month, in response to the killing of Tehran-aligned militant leaders and a Revolutionary Guards general, prompted vows of retaliation from Israel, again heightening fears of a broader conflagration that could disrupt air traffic.

Iran Air, far cheaper than its foreign competition, was “the only airline that flew to Europe in our country”, said Maghsoud Asadi Samani of the national airline association.

“With the new European Union sanctions against Iran Air, no Iranian aircraft will fly to Europe,” news agency ILNA quoted Samani as saying.

Earlier Western sanctions on Iran, including those reimposed after the United States withdrew in 2018 from a landmark nuclear deal, have taken a toll, too.

They contributed to soaring inflation, slashing Iranians’ purchasing power, but also heavily restricted the acquisition of aircraft and spare parts, and limited access to maintenance services.

“A significant number of planes in Iran have accordingly been grounded” for years, said economist Danial Rahmat.

Aging aircraft fleets have worsened poor safety standards, part of a host of challenges Iran’s aviation sector has long grappled with.

Economist Said Leylaz said that while sanctions have had a serious impact, airlines’ woes were rooted in mismanagement and corruption.

Going ‘where we’re not sanctioned’

But Iranians have only a few alternatives.

Rahmat said that now, they may have to primarily rely on flights via neighboring countries to reach Europe and other parts of the world.

Not only would it “impose higher costs and longer travel hours on Iranian passengers, but it would also provide an opportunity for airlines from these countries to acquire a larger market share” at the expense of Iranian firms, said Rahmat.

Iran Air still flies to several regional destinations as well as some in Asia. Another company, Mahan Air, goes to Moscow and Beijing several times a week.

Shortly after the latest EU sanctions were announced on October 14, Iran Air set up a daily route to Istanbul “to facilitate travel to Europe and reduce travelers’ worries,” news agency ISNA reported.

Leylaz said that the sanctions would likely boost Iran’s ties with non-Western allies like China.

The demand for flights to east Asia “and outside the European Union… to places where we are not sanctioned is very high,” he added.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has made easing Iran’s economic isolation a key objective, but indirect talks with the United States that could have helped have been suspended over the regional conflict, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

For Tannaz, the photographer, the ability to go abroad is not just a work issue but also a reflection of the state of the country.

“I just wish we could live a normal life,” she said.
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Striking workers’ rejection of planemaker Boeing’s BA.N latest contract offer has created a fresh threat to operations at aerospace suppliers such as family-run Independent Forge.  

If the strike by more than 33,000 U.S. Boeing workers persists another month, the Orange County, California supplier might need to cut its operations from five to three days a week to save money and retain workers, president Andrew Flores said.  

While Independent laid off a few employees already, letting more go is not an appealing option, he said. The 22 workers who remain are critical for the company, especially when the strike eventually ends and demand for its aluminum aircraft parts rebounds.  

“They are the backbone of our shop,” Flores said this week. “Their knowledge, I can’t replace that.”  

Wednesday’s vote by 64% of Boeing’s West Coast factory workers against the company’s latest contract offer, further idling assembly for nearly all of the planemaker’s commercial jets, has created a fresh test for suppliers such as Independent, which opened in 1975.  

Boeing’s vast global network of suppliers that produce parts from sprawling modern factories or tiny garage workshops, was already stressed by the company’s quality-and-safety crisis, which began in January after a mid-air panel blow-out on a new 737 MAX.   

Demand for parts has dropped, hitting suppliers after they spent heavily to meet renewed demand for planes in the post-pandemic era.   

How small suppliers such as Independent navigate the strike, which began on Sept. 13, is expected to affect Boeing’s future ability to bring its plane production back online.   

More job cuts?   

Five Boeing suppliers interviewed by Reuters this week said continuation of the strike would cause them to furlough workers, freeze investment, or consider halting production.  

Boeing declined comment.  

Seattle-area supplier Pathfinder, which runs a project to attract young recruits to aerospace and trains them alongside its skilled workers, will likely need to lay off more employees, CEO Dave Trader said.  

Pathfinder, which let go one-quarter of its 54 workers last month, will also need to send more of its aerospace students back to their high schools, instead of training them in the company’s factories, Trader said.  

Suppliers on a regular call on Thursday with Boeing supply-chain executives said they expect the strike will continue for weeks, one participant told Reuters.  

About 60% of the 2.21 million Americans who work in the aerospace industry have jobs directly linked to the supply chain, according to the U.S. industry group Aerospace Industries Association.  

Those suppliers’ decisions to reduce staffing could create a vicious cycle, as they will put added strain on Boeing’s efforts to restore and eventually increase 737 MAX output above a regulator-imposed cap of 38 after its factories re-open, analysts say.  

“Once we get back, we have the task of restarting the factories and the supply chain, and it’s much harder to turn this on than it is to turn it off,” CEO Kelly Ortberg told an analyst call on Wednesday.  

“The longer it goes on, the more it could trickle back into the supply chain and cause delays there,” Southwest Airlines LUV.N Chief Operating Officer Andrew Watterson said of the strike on Thursday.   

Shares of Boeing suppliers fell on Thursday. Howmet HWM.N lost 2%. Honeywell HON.O and Spirit AeroSystems SPR.N fell 5% and 3%, respectively, following weak results.  

Spirit Aero, Boeing’s key supplier, which has already announced the furlough of 700 workers on the 767 and 777 widebody programs for 21 days, has warned it would implement layoffs should the strike continue past November.  

“It’s starting up the supply chain that is likely to be the biggest worry, especially if they have taken action to cut workers due to a lack of Boeing orders,” Vertical Research Partners analyst Rob Stallard said by email.  

A strained supply chain, Spirit Aero’s challenges and increased regulatory oversight from the Federal Aviation Administration over MAX production, means it could take up to a year from the strike’s end to get 737 output back to the 38-per-month rate, Stallard said. 
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EVERETT, Wash. — Boeing reported a loss of more than $6 billion in the third quarter and immediately turned its attention to union workers who will vote Wednesday whether to accept a company contract offer or continue their crippling strike, which has dragged on for nearly six weeks.  

New CEO Kelly Ortberg laid out his plan to turn Boeing around after years of heavy losses and damage to its reputation.  

In remarks he planned to deliver later Wednesday to investors, Ortberg said Boeing needs “a fundamental culture change in the company.” To accomplish that, he said, company leaders need to spend more time on factory floors to know what is going on and “prevent the festering of issues and work better together to identify, fix, and understand root cause.”  

Ortberg repeated that he wants to “reset” management’s relationship with labor “so we don’t become so disconnected in the future.” He expressed hope that machinists will vote to approve the company’s latest contract offer and end their strike.  

“It will take time to return Boeing to its former legacy, but with the right focus and culture, we can be an iconic company and aerospace leader once again,” he said.  

The strike is an early test for Ortberg, a Boeing outsider who became CEO in August.  

Ortberg has already announced large-scale layoffs and a plan to raise enough cash to avoid a bankruptcy filing. He needs to convince federal regulators that Boeing is fixing its safety culture and is ready to boost production of the 737 Max — a crucial step to bring in much-needed cash.  

Boeing can’t produce any new 737s, however, until it ends the strike by 33,000 machinists that has shut down assembly plants in the Seattle area.  

Ortberg has “got a lot on his plate, but he probably is laser-focused on getting this negotiation completed. That’s the closest alligator to the boat,” said Tony Bancroft, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, a Boeing investor.  

Boeing hasn’t had a profitable year since 2018, and the situation is about to get worse before it gets better.  

Boeing said Wednesday that it lost $6.17 billion in the period ended Sept. 30, with an adjusted loss of $10.44 per share. Analysts polled by Zacks Investment Research were calling for a loss of $10.34 per share.  

Revenue totaled $17.84 billion, matching Wall Street estimates.  

Shares were flat before the opening bell.  

Investors will be looking for Ortberg to project calm, determination and urgency as he presides over an earnings call for the first time since he ran Rockwell Collins, a maker of avionics and flight controls for airline and military planes, in the last decade.  

The biggest news of the day, however, is likely to come Wednesday evening, when the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers reveals whether striking workers are ready to go back to their jobs.  

They will vote at union halls in the Seattle area and elsewhere on a Boeing offer that includes pay raises of 35% over four years, $7,000 ratification bonuses, and the retention of performance bonuses that Boeing wanted to eliminate.  

Boeing has held firm in resisting a union demand to restore the traditional pension plan that was frozen a decade ago. However, older workers would get a slight increase in their monthly pension payouts.  

At a picket line outside Boeing’s factory in Everett, Washington, some machinists encouraged colleagues to vote no.  

“The pension should have been the top priority. We all said that was our top priority, along with wage,” said Larry Best, a customer-quality coordinator with 38 years at Boeing. “Now is the prime opportunity in a prime time to get our pension back, and we all need to stay out and dig our heels in.”  

Best also thinks the pay increase should be 40% over three years to offset a long stretch of stagnant wages, now combined with high inflation.  

“You can see we got a great turnout today. I’m pretty sure that they don’t like the contract because that’s why I’m here,” said another picketer, Bartley Stokes Sr., who started working at Boeing in 1978. “We’re out here in force, and we’re going to show our solidarity and stick with our union brothers and sisters and vote this thing down because they can do better.”
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Ethiopia’s state-owned telecommunications company has started selling shares to the public, in a move aimed at establishing a new national stock market and giving Ethiopians a stake in the company, one of the country’s largest and most profitable.

Ethio Telecom will be the first company listed on the new Ethiopian Securities Exchange, or ESX, which is set to begin operating in November. It will be the country’s first stock market since the 1970s.

Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said last Wednesday that the 130-year-old Ethio Telecom is offering 10% of its shares to the public, 100 million shares in all.

Investors, who must be Ethiopian nationals, can buy up to 3,333 shares of the company at a price of 300 birr, or about $2.50 per share.  

CEO Frehiwot Tamiru said the company will now be called Ethio Telecom PLC.

“Today marks a significant milestone as we launch the sale of Ethio Telecom shares, an essential step in our ongoing journey from political revolution to evolution over the past six years,” Abiy said in a post on X.

He said offering the shares lays “the groundwork for Ethiopia’s stock market and expanding access to ownership in one of the nation’s leading state-owned enterprises, which has now evolved into a share company.”

Ethiopia, once a communist country aligned with the Soviet Union, has gradually allowed greater foreign investment and has slowly privatized state companies, though the government still owns and controls key banking, telecom and transportation firms.

Not everyone sees the sale of Ethio Telecom shares as a sure winner for the Ethiopian public. Ethiopian economist and the executive director of Initiative Africa, Kibur Gena, is concerned that only wealthy Ethiopians will be able to invest in the company.

“This raises questions, in my opinion, of fairness and inclusivity,” he said.  “Such a move might provide, of course, immediate financial benefits to the government; it could also perpetuate inequalities in wealth distribution and restrict, of course, broader public participation in national assets.”

Kibur argues that this approach to privatization could lead to a “deeper wealth gap” and make it harder for the majority of Ethiopians to gain access to economic opportunities.’

“This would certainly contradict the principles of economic equity, which many argue that, when you sell public assets or public resources, they should be distributed more widely to ensure that economic benefits reach marginalized or less affluent groups.”

Ethio Telecom sees it differently.  To help ensure that the share sale is inclusive, investors can buy as few as 33 shares, purchasable for 9,900 birr ($82), according to a company post on Facebook.

However, many Ethiopians don’t even earn $82 in a month, according to World Bank data.

Asked why the privatization of state companies have been slow in Ethiopia, Kibur said it can be seen as a “pragmatic strategy to protect national development goals” and “maintain economic sovereignty.”

“In many ways, privatization may eventually happen and it is happening,’’ he said. ‘’Many economists would argue that it should be done gradually with strong regulatory frameworks in place so that it can ensure that it contributes to long-term development and social stability rather than short-term market efficiency.”

Abiy said Ethio Telecom generated about $829 million in revenue and $239 million in profit during 2023, noting the amount is the most income generated for the state, compared to all other domestic and foreign companies operating in Ethiopia, including commercial banks, combined.

“We are doing this so that people could have confidence in it and join the stock market but it would have continued to be profitable even if we didn’t sell shares,” the prime minister said.

Abiy hinted the government may offer more stakes for sale.

“The sale of shares that we started with Ethio Telecom may continue with Ethiopian Airlines, with hotels and other sectors,” he said.

This story originated in VOA’s Horn of Africa Service. 
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Detroit — Had she wanted to, Michelle Chumley could have afforded a pricey new SUV loaded with options. But when it came time to replace her Chevrolet Blazer SUV, for which she’d paid about $40,000 three years ago, Chumley chose something smaller. And less costly.  

With her purchase of a Chevrolet Trax compact SUV in June, Chumley joined a rising number of buyers who have made vehicles in the below-average $20,000-to-$30,000 range the fastest-growing segment of the nation’s new-auto market.  

“I just don’t need that big vehicle and to be paying all of that gas money,” said Chumley, a 56-year-old nurse who lives outside Oxford, Ohio, near Cincinnati.  

Across the industry, auto analysts say, an “affordability shift” is taking root. The trend is being led by people who feel they can no longer afford a new vehicle that would cost them roughly today’s average selling price of more than $47,000 — a jump of more than 20% from the pre-pandemic average.  

To buy a new car at that price, an average buyer would have to spend $737 a month, if financed at today’s average loan rate of 7.1%, for just under six years before the vehicle would be paid off, according to Edmunds.com, an auto research and pricing site. For many, that is financially out of reach.  

Yet there are other buyers who, like Chumley, could manage the financial burden but have decided it just isn’t worth the cost. And the trend is forcing America’s automakers to reassess their sales and production strategies. With buyers confronting inflated prices and still-high loan rates, sales of new U.S. autos rose only 1% through September over the same period last year. If the trend toward lower-priced vehicles proves a lasting one, more generous discounts could lead to lower average auto prices and slowing industry profits.  

“Consumers are becoming more prudent as they face economic uncertainty, still-high interest rates and vehicle prices that remain elevated,” said Kevin Roberts, director of market intelligence at CarGurus, an automotive shopping site. “This year, all of the growth is happening in what we would consider the more affordable price buckets.”  

Under pressure to unload their more expensive models, automakers have been lowering the sales prices on many such vehicles, largely by offering steeper discounts. In the past year, the average incentive per auto has nearly doubled, to $1,812, according to Edmunds. General Motors has said it expects its average selling price to drop 1.5% in the second half of the year.  

Through September, Roberts has calculated, new-vehicle sales to individual buyers, excluding sales to rental companies and other commercial fleets, are up 7%. Of that growth, 43% came in the $20,000-to-$30,000 price range — the largest share for that price category in at least four years. (For used vehicles, the shift is even more pronounced: 59% sales growth in the $15,000-to-$20,000 price range over that period.)  

Sales of compact and subcompact cars and SUVs from mainstream auto brands are growing faster than in any year since 2018, according to data from Cox Automotive.  

The sales gains for affordable vehicles is, in some ways, a return to a pattern that existed before the pandemic. As recently as 2018, compact and subcompact vehicles — typically among the most popular moderately priced vehicles — had accounted for nearly 35% of the nation’s new vehicle sales.  

The proportion started to fall in 2020, when the pandemic caused a global shortage of computer chips that forced automakers to slow production and allocate scarce semiconductors to more expensive trucks and large SUVs. As buyers increasingly embraced those higher-priced vehicles, the companies posted robust earnings growth.  

In the meantime, they deemed profit margins for lower-prices cars too meager to justify significant production of them. By 2022, the market share of compact and subcompact vehicles had dropped below 30%.  

This year, that share has rebounded to nearly 34% and rising. Sales of compact sedans were up 16.7% through September from 12 months earlier. By contrast, CarGurus said, big pickups rose just under 6%. Sales of large SUVs are barely up at all — less than 1%.  

Ford’s F-Series truck remains the top-selling vehicle in the United States this year, as it has been for nearly a half-century, followed by the Chevrolet Silverado. But Stellantis’ Ram pickup, typically No. 3, dropped to sixth place, outpaced by several less expensive small SUVs: the Toyota RAV4, the Honda CR-V and the Tesla Model Y (with a $7,500 U.S. tax credit).  

The move in buyer sentiment toward affordability came fast this year, catching many automakers off guard, with too-few vehicles available in lower price ranges. One reason for the shift, analysts say, is that many buyers who are willing to plunk down nearly $50,000 for a new vehicle had already done so in the past few years. People who are less able — or less willing — to spend that much had in many cases held on to their existing vehicles for years. The time had come for them to replace them. And most of them seem disinclined to spend more than they have to.  

With loan rates still high and average auto insurance prices up a whopping 38% in the past two years, “the public just wants to be a little more frugal about it,” said Keith McCluskey, CEO of the dealership where Chumley bought her Trax.  

Roberts of CarGurus noted that even many higher-income buyers are choosing smaller, lower-priced vehicles, in some cases because of uncertainties over the economy and the impending presidential election.  

The shift has left some automakers overstocked with too many pricier trucks and SUVs. Some, like Stellantis, which makes Chrysler, Jeep and Ram vehicles, have warned that the shift will eat into their profitability this year.  

At General Motors’ Chevrolet brand, executives had foreseen the shift away from “uber expensive” vehicles and were prepared with the redesigned Trax, which came out in the spring of 2023, noted Mike MacPhee, director of Chevrolet sales operations.  

Trax sales in the U.S. so far this year are up 130%, making it the nation’s top-selling subcompact SUV.  

“We’re basically doubling our (Trax) sales volume from last year,” MacPhee said.   

How long the preference for lower-priced vehicles may last is unclear. Charlie Chesbrough, chief economist for Cox Automotive, notes that the succession of expected interest rates cuts by the Federal Rates should eventually lead to lower auto loan rates, thereby making larger vehicles more affordable.  

“The trends will probably start to change if these interest rates start coming down,” Chesbrough predicted. “We’ll see consumers start moving into these larger vehicles.” 
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Chicagp — U.S. soybean export premiums are at their highest in 14 months, as grain merchants race to ship out a record-large U.S. harvest ahead of the U.S. presidential election and fears of renewed trade tensions with top importer China, traders and analysts said.

Nearly 2.5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export last week, including almost 1.7 million tons bound for China, the most in a year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data released on Monday.

But while this export flurry is a bright spot for U.S. farmers coping with low prices and hefty supplies, sellers say such heightened export demand could be short lived — leaving the U.S. with a glut of oilseeds at a time when prices are hovering near four-year lows.

Tariff threats from presidential hopeful Donald Trump’s campaign speeches are prompting some Chinese importers to shun U.S. shipments from January onward, traders and analysts said.

Instead, these buyers are booking Brazilian soy – and paying up to 40 cents a bushel more than they would in the United States in an earlier-than-normal seasonal shift that’s shrinking the U.S. export window.

“The Chinese don’t know what final costs will be relative to tariffs. They are avoiding the United States from January forward,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co.

Basse said he expects 2024/25 U.S. exports to fall 75 million bushels short of the latest USDA forecast.

How China will respond to tariffs under a new U.S. administration is unclear. Trump has vowed to boost tariffs on Chinese products to around 60%, while challenger Kamala Harris’ plan is to keep tariffs roughly as they are now.

“There’s a threat of tariffs from either party, but more so under a Trump administration,” said Terry Reilly, senior agricultural strategist with Marex. “With Harris, there’s a real possibility that things will revert to the status quo.”

Traders said premiums for immediate shipments of U.S. soy are likely to erode in the coming weeks as near-term demand is met and if trade war concerns limit new buying by China.

Cash premiums for soybean barges delivered to Gulf export terminals by midweek spiked to a 130-cent premium over Chicago Board of Trade November SX24 futures on Monday, reflecting strong demand for immediate supplies, traders said.

The same soybeans, if loaded next month, were available for 27 cents a bushel less, or a savings of roughly $14,000 per fully loaded 1,500-ton barge.
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LA RIOJA, Argentina — They look like cash, fit into wallets like cash and the governor promises they’ll be treated like cash.

But these brightly colored banknotes aren’t pesos, the depreciating national currency of Argentina, or U.S. dollars, everyone’s money of choice here.

They are chachos, a new emergency tender invented by the left-wing populist governor of La Rioja, a province in the country’s northwest that went broke when far-right President Javier Milei slashed federal budget transfers to provinces as part of an unprecedented austerity program.

“Who would have imagined that one day I’d find myself wishing I’d gotten pesos?” said Lucia Vera, a music teacher emerging from a gymnasium packed with state workers waiting to get their monthly bonus of chachos worth 50,000 pesos (about $40).

Across La Rioja’s capital, “Chachos accepted here” decals now appear on the windows of everything from chain supermarkets and gas stations to upscale restaurants and hair salons. The local government guarantees a 1-to-1 exchange rate with pesos, and accepts chachos for tax payments and utilities bills.

But there’s a catch. Chachos can’t be used outside La Rioja, and only registered businesses can swap chachos for pesos at a few government exchange points.

“I need real money,” said Adriana Parcas, a 22-year-old street vendor who pays her suppliers in pesos, after turning down two customers in a row who asked if they could buy her perfumes with chachos.

The bills bear the face of Ángel Vicente “Chacho” Peñaloza, the caudillo, or strongman, famed for defending La Rioja in a 19th-century battle against national authorities in Buenos Aires. A QR code on the banknote links to a website denouncing Milei for refusing to transfer La Rioja its fair share of federal funds.

After entering office in December 2023, Milei swiftly imposed his shock therapy in a bid to reverse decades of budget-busting populism that ran up Argentina’s monumental deficits. The cuts squeezed all of Argentina’s 23 provinces but boiled over into a full-blown crisis in La Rioja, where the public payroll accounts for two-thirds of registered workers and the federal government’s redistributed taxes cover some 90% of the provincial budget.

With just 384,600 people and little industry beyond walnuts and olives, La Rioja received more discretionary federal funds than any other last year except Buenos Aires, home to 17.6 million people. Yet the province’s poverty rate tops 66% — the result, critics say, of a patronage system long used to placate interest groups at the expense of efficiency.

While Milei’s reforms forced other provinces to tighten their belts and lay off thousands of employees, Governor Ricardo Quintela — an ambitious power broker in Argentina’s long-dominant Peronist movement and one of Milei’s fiercest critics — refused to absorb the strife of austerity.

“I’m not going to take food from the people of La Rioja to pay the debt that the government owes us,” Quintela told The Associated Press, portraying his chacho-printing plan as a daring stand against 10 months of crumbling wages, rising unemployment and deepening misery under Milei.

La Rioja defaulted on its debts in February and August. A New York federal judge ordered the province to pay American and British bondholders nearly $40 million in damages in September. Argentina’s Supreme Court is taking up the case of the province’s refusal to charge consumers sky-high prices for electricity after Milei’s removal of subsidies.

“There’s an alternative path to the cruelty of policies that the president is applying,” Quintela said.

He appeared confident, speaking as Milei’s approval ratings dipped below 50% for the first time since the radical economist came to power.

But as Milei and his allies tell it, Quintela’s alternative offers little more than a return to Argentina’s habitual Peronist preserve of reckless spending — and insolvency — that delivered the unmitigated crisis that his government inherited.

“You were used to having your tie fastened for you and your shoes polished, but now, you’ve got to tie the knot yourself,” Eduardo Serenellini, press secretary of Milei’s office, snapped at La Rioja business leaders on a recent visit to the province. “When you run out of cash, you run out cash.”

Serenellini picked up a chacho note, then flicked it away like lint.

Gov. Quintela’s gambit in the remote province has had little effect on Argentina’s federal finances, but that could change if more cash-strapped provinces catch on, as happened during Argentina’s terrible financial crisis of 2001, when a similarly brutal austerity scheme sent over a dozen provinces scrambling to print their own parallel currencies.

Unlike two decades ago, when former President Néstor Kirchner, a Peronist, put an end to the chaos by redeeming “patacones,” “cecacores” and “boncanfores” for pesos, President Milei has ruled out a bailout for La Rioja.

“We will not be accomplices to irresponsible people,” Milei warned in a recent interview with Argentine TV channel Todo Noticias. But the libertarian purist added that he couldn’t stop La Rioja from doing what it pleased, considering that Argentina’s constitution allows for such desperate financial workarounds.

The chacho hit the streets in August after La Rioja’s legislature approved plans to run off $22.5 billion pesos worth of the currency to help cover up to 30% of public sector salaries.

With La Rioja’s average income sinking below $200 per month and stores shuttering for lack of business, authorities doled out 8.4 billion pesos worth of the scrip in monthly bonuses in August and September, an effort to help workers cope with Argentina’s 230% annual inflation and spur the stricken local economy.

To encourage the chacho’s use, authorities promise to pay interest of 17% on bills held to maturity on December 31.

“The closer we get to the expiration date, the more we’ll see public confidence in the chacho increase,” said provincial treasurer adviser Carlos Nardillo Giraud.

Most state workers interviewed in the many chacho lines spilling onto La Rioja’s sidewalks last month said they wanted to get rid of the bills as quickly as possible.

“Now the chacho is an alternative, an option for people who can’t make it to the end of the month,” said 30-year-old physics teacher Daniela Parra, mounting her boyfriend’s motorcycle with arms full of chachos, ready to spend them all in one go at the supermarket. “Who knows what will it be next month?”

On the streets, merchants said they felt locked in a catch-22.

Rejecting chachos meant turning away customers with new spending power in a deep recession. But accepting chachos meant filling cash registers with money that’s worthless to foreign suppliers and already changing hands at a discount to pesos on the street.

“They’ve formed a system where you’re forced to depend on the state for everything,” said Juan Keulian, the director of La Rioja’s Center for Commerce and Industry. “There’s no choice in a place like this.”
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BANGKOK — Southeast Asia is bearing the mounting brunt of U.S. trade curbs aimed at stemming the forced labor of ethnic minority Uyghurs in China, with billions of dollars in blocked exports, the latest U.S. trade figures show.

Economists and human rights experts ascribe the heavy hit the region is taking to global supply chains shifting to reroute exports from China through Southeast Asia and to China’s persistent dominance in key commodities.

With both powerful forces at play, Southeast Asia is “caught in the middle,” Jayant Menon, a senior fellow at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told VOA.

The United States has detained $3.56 billion worth of imports in all since its Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, or UFLPA, took effect in mid-2022, according to recent figures from U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Some 86% of those, more than $3 billion worth, arrived from Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. Only $395 million arrived directly from China.

The act forbids imports of any products made in whole or in part in China’s Xinjiang autonomous region, the Uyghurs’ historic homeland, presuming they have been made with forced labor. While many of the shipments are eventually allowed to enter the United States, the burden is on the importer to secure their release by proving the products are produced without forced labor, a process that can take months.

The United States and other governments have accused China of genocide over its treatment of the mostly Muslim Uyghurs for subjecting them to not only forced labor but mass surveillance and detention, religious persecution and forced sterilization — all denied by Beijing.

Xinjiang is a major source of some commodities crucial to the global supply chain, including 12% of the world’s aluminum, more than a third of the polysilicon for solar panels and 90% of the cotton produced by China, according to the Coalition to End Forced Labor in the Uyghur Region, a global network of rights groups.

Many of those supply chains now flow through Southeast Asia for reasons beyond just the UFLPA, said Nick Marro, principal Asia economist and global trade lead analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“For years, multinational companies — both Chinese and non-Chinese owned — have been pouring investment into Southeast Asia to construct supply chains aimed at dodging U.S. tariffs,” he told VOA.

While far from the only reason for the influx, he said, “shifting some production chains to Vietnam or Thailand, for example, can obfuscate whether a good might originally be produced in China.”

“This isn’t necessarily a fool-proof strategy,” Marro said. “U.S. trade authorities are very sensitive to illegal transshipments and other efforts aimed at circumventing U.S. duties. But for some supply chains, cracking down on these activities can be challenging — especially for products like cotton, which is notoriously difficult to trace.”

Evolving supply chains now require looking beyond exports arriving directly from China to catch what’s made there, said Menon, a former lead economist for trade with the Asian Development Bank.

“Increasingly there’s production and value addition in multiple countries,” he said. “Simply looking at goods that emanate from Xinjiang to the U.S. will not capture the intended objective.”

Of the slightly more than $3 billion worth of exports the United States has detained from Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam because of the UFLPA, the vast majority, $2.96 billion, have been electronics, including solar panels.

Louisa Greve, global advocacy director for the Washington-based Uyghur Human Rights Project, ascribes that to the surge of investment from Chinese solar panel makers into Southeast Asia starting more than a decade ago.

“We don’t know of any Uyghurs working in Southeast Asia in solar, but we do know where the polysilicon has to come from. That’s the issue,” she told VOA. “It’s about the components.”

Greve added that the Southeast Asian countries and companies involved in importing and incorporating that polysilicon into the solar panels they help make and export also risk being complicit in the state-sponsored forced labor that goes into producing it in China.

“Thirty-five percent of the world’s polysilicon, or solar-grade polysilicon, is coming from China. It’s up to every manufacturer, like the plants that are actually making solar panels in Southeast Asia … to say, ‘We have to be responsible for the raw materials that we’re using,’” she said.

Menon asserted the UFLPA could benefit low-wage countries less tainted by forced labor than China by driving more business their way, but he said that Southeast Asia will still struggle to wean itself off Chinese supplies.

“China is still the hub or the center of ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] supply chains. That hasn’t changed. There’s been some reconfiguration taking place, but by and large, China’s not going away,” he said.

Menon said that “blunt” trade tools like the act can also hurt the countries in the middle of those supply chains by driving existing production and investment away, leaving local workers with less work or fewer jobs.

“This [act] is quite a big move, quite a massive measure, and so I’d be surprised if it doesn’t have some impact in moving production around,” he said. “If you ban imports in this way, inevitably there will be some shifts that move production in a way that tries to circumvent those bans.”

Marro said the same pressures that drove companies to “de-risk” by moving production from China to Southeast Asia years ago could yet prove a “double-edged sword.” While the shift has boosted Southeast Asia’s economies, the costs may mount as the United States and others start taking a harder look at countries helping China evade their trade curbs.

Even with only 11 months of the 2024 fiscal year reported, U.S. customs figures show the UFLPA blocked more imports from Southeast Asia over the past year than the year before.

Marro said enforcement efforts were at a “very real risk” of picking up but added that geopolitics could also intervene.

“As much as U.S. officials want to crack down on Chinese tariff circumvention, there’s an equal effort to avoid isolating Southeast Asia when it comes to the U.S.’s increasingly hawkish strategy towards China,” he said. “This balancing act will characterize the future of U.S. policy to the region.”
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