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Two U.S. senators are pursuing a legislative plan to track U.S. investments in China, as the White House works to complete long-awaited action that would also restrict investment in certain, highly targeted sectors.  

The Outbound Investment Transparency Act, filed late on Thursday as an amendment to a defense bill, is the latest bipartisan legislation introduced by Democratic Senator Bob Casey and Republican John Cornyn aimed at tackling the risks of U.S. investment going to foreign adversaries like China.

Unlike an unsuccessful version the senators introduced in 2021, the latest measure requires notification of some outbound investments, rather than review or prohibition of certain deals, and targets fewer industry sectors.  

“As a matter of national and economic security, we need greater insight into which of our nation’s critical technological capabilities have been moved overseas and at what scale,” Casey said in a statement.  

The Biden administration, meanwhile, is finalizing an executive order that would also restrict certain investment in sectors including advanced semiconductors, quantum computing and artificial intelligence.  

A senior administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the aim was to wrap up legal and other reviews of the outbound investment order by Labor Day.  

The White House had no comment.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday, at the end of a four-day trip to China, that she had spoken with her Chinese counterparts about the proposed order and said that any investment curbs would be “highly targeted, and clearly directed, narrowly at a few sectors where we have specific national security concerns.”

She said the order would enacted in a transparent way, through a rule-making process that would allow public input.  

Reuters reported in February that the proposed order was likely to track restrictions on artificial intelligence chips, chipmaking tools and supercomputers, among other technologies, imposed on exports to China in October. The order, which has been repeatedly postponed, was expected to also require notice for a broad swath of transactions.  

The senators’ proposed legislation was filed as an amendment to the annual National Defense Authorization Act.

On Friday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed its version of the NDAA. The chances of it becoming law were uncertain after Republicans added a series of culturally conservative amendments.

Debate in the Senate on its version of the must-pass bill is set to begin on Tuesday. The two houses of Congress must come to an agreement on a final version before it could go to President Joe Biden to approve or veto.
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U.S. lawmakers Thursday charged the Chinese Communist Party is using coercive economic practices to achieve worldwide dominance over the United States.

The accusations came at a hearing of the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party days after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met with Chinese officials in Beijing to discuss the nations’ economic relationship.

Yellen said that while the United States was taking targeted national security actions, “a decoupling of the world’s two largest economies would be disastrous for interests for both countries and destabilizing for the world, and it would be virtually impossible to undertake. We want a dynamic and healthy global economy that is open, free and fair.”

Diplomatic relations between the two countries have been tense since the U.S. downed a Chinese spy balloon earlier this year. Witnesses told the House panel Thursday U.S. companies are facing increasing threats operating inside China.

“There’s no such thing as a private company in China, a raft of legislation like the updated counterespionage law, the data security law, the anti-foreign sanctions law has codified what was always true. China reserves the right to swipe any data, to seize any assets and take IP that it wishes,” committee Chairman Mike Gallagher said.

According to committee members, China’s restrictive environment is resulting in a so-called “brain-drain” of its own business people, turning China into the top country in the world for the departure of wealthy individuals, fleeing what they fear is the Communist Party’s ability to arbitrarily seize assets.

Witnesses testified the environment in China is becoming increasingly restrictive for American companies and individuals.

“In the last few months, PRC authorities are now charging any domestic or foreign businessperson with espionage simply for providing any services using PRC information to grant or give to third-country-based customers,” Piper Lounsbury, chief research and development officer at Strategy Risks, a risk management firm for companies doing business in China, said.

“The crackdown on consulting businesses, the enhanced data, secrecy laws and the flow of PRC information just highlight the negative symmetry that we have with China. This means that even companies now can’t even do due diligence in advance of any sort of business transaction,” Lounsbury, said.

The Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry pushed back against criticism of its business practices Monday in response to a U.S. State Department travel advisory issued this month warning Americans citizens of the “risk of wrongful detention.”

“China is a country under the rule of law. The decision of relevant departments to carry out security review of foreign companies according to law is based on laws and facts. China welcomes citizens and enterprises from all over the world to visit China and do business in China, and protects their safety and legitimate rights and interests in China, including freedom of exit and entry,” said Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the ministry.

Witnesses, though, told the committee told lawmakers that American businesses face a restrictive environment led from the top down by President Xi Jinping, potential intellectual property theft and the constant threat of seized assets.

“The issue is how much do I need to lose to have access to the market, so it’s a balancing act,” said Desmond Shum, a businessman whose ex-wife, Whitney Duan, was arrested by the Chinese. Shum, the author of Red Roulette: An Insider’s Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption and Vengeance in Today’s China, told U.S. news program 60 Minutes that he and his then-wife participated in corrupt business practices in China.

In its latest report to Congress in 2022, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, set up by Congress in 2000 to monitor and report on the national security implications of the U.S.-China economic relationship, as well as make recommendations, said U.S. businesses and investors are reevaluating their reengagement in China.

“China has subverted the global trade system and moved further from the spirit and letter of its obligations under its WTO accession protocol,” the report said. “China’s subsidies, overcapacity, intellectual property theft, and protectionist nonmarket policies exacerbate distortions to the global economy. These practices have harmed workers, producers, and innovators in the United States and other market-based countries.”

The commission went on to say the United States’ ability to overcome harmful trade practices was undermined by the lack of a coherent strategy.
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Leaders of a Hollywood actors union voted Thursday to join screenwriters in the first joint strike in more than six decades, shutting down production across the entertainment industry after talks for a new contract with studios and streaming services broke down.

It’s the first time two major Hollywood unions have been on strike at the same time since 1960, when Ronald Reagan was the actors’ guild president.

In an impassioned speech as the strike, which begins at midnight, was announced, actors’ union president Fran Drescher, former star of “The Nanny,” chastised industry executives.

“Employers make Wall Street and greed their priority, and they forget about the essential contributors that make the machine run,” Drescher said. “It is disgusting. Shame on them. They stand on the wrong side of history.”

Hours earlier, a three-year contract had expired, and talks broke off between the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers representing employers including Disney, Netflix, Amazon and others.

Outside Netflix’s Hollywood offices, picketing screenwriters chanted “Pay Your Actors!” immediately after the strike was declared. Actors will begin picketing alongside writers outside studio headquarters in New York and Los Angeles on Friday.

“It looks like it’s time to take down the MASKS. And pick up the SIGNS,” Oscar-winner Jamie Lee Curtis said in an Instagram post with a photo of the tragic and comic masks that represent acting.

The premiere of Christopher Nolan’s film “Oppenheimer” in London was moved up an hour so that the cast could walk the red carpet before the SAG board’s announcement. Stars including Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt and Matt Damon left the event once the strike was announced.

The strike — the first for film and television actors since 1980 — casts a shadow over the upcoming 75th Emmy Awards, whose nominations were announced a day earlier. Union rules prevent actors from doing any interviews or promotions around the awards, and they may not appear at the ceremony.

The strike rules also prevent actors from making personal appearances or promoting their work on podcasts or at premieres. And they are barred from doing any production work, including auditions, readings, rehearsals or voiceovers, along with actual shooting.

While international shoots technically can continue, the stoppage among U.S.-based writers and performers is likely to have a drag on those, too.

Disney chief Bob Iger warned the strike would have a “very damaging effect on the whole industry.”

“This is the worst time in the world to add to that disruption,” Iger said on CNBC. “There’s a level of expectation that they have that is just not realistic.”

A nearly two-week extension of the actors union contract and negotiations only heightened the hostility between the two groups. Drescher said the extension made us “feel like we’d been duped, like maybe it was just to let studios promote their summer movies for another 12 days.”

Before the talks began June 7, the 65,000 actors who cast ballots voted overwhelmingly for union leaders to send them into a strike, as the Writers Guild of America did when their deal expired more than two months ago.

When the initial deadline approached in late June, more than 1,000 members of the union, including Meryl Streep, Jennifer Lawrence and Bob Odenkirk, added their names to a letter signaling to leaders their willingness to strike.

While famous names predominate, the strike also includes tens of thousands of little-known actors who scramble for small parts at sometimes meager pay. The union says modest-but-essential income streams, including long-term residuals for shows they appear in, have dried up.

Stakes in the negotiations included that kind of pay, which actors say has been undercut by inflation and the streaming ecosystem, benefits, the growing tendency to make performers create video auditions at their own expense, and the threat of unregulated use of artificial intelligence.

“At a moment when streaming and AI and digital was so prevalent, it has disemboweled the industry that we once knew,” Drescher said, drawing applause from her fellow union leaders. “When I did ‘The Nanny’ everybody was part of the gravy train. Now it’s a vacuum.”

The AMPTP said it presented a generous deal that included the biggest bump in minimum pay in 35 years, higher caps on pension and health contributions, and “a groundbreaking AI proposal that protects actors’ digital likenesses.”

“A strike is certainly not the outcome we hoped for as studios cannot operate without the performers that bring our TV shows and films to life,” the group said in a statement. “The Union has regrettably chosen a path that will lead to financial hardship for countless thousands of people who depend on the industry.”

SAG-AFTRA represents more than 160,000 screen actors, broadcast journalists, announcers, hosts and stunt performers. The walkout affects only the union’s actors from television and film productions, who voted overwhelmingly to authorize their leaders to call a strike before talks began on June 7. Broadway actors said in a statement that they stand “in solidarity” with SAG-AFTRA workers.

The 11,500 members of the Writers Guild of America have been on strike since their own talks collapsed and their contract expired on May 2. The stoppage has showed no signs of a solution, with no negotiations even planned.

That strike brought the immediate shutdown of late-night talk shows and “Saturday Night Live,” and several scripted shows, including “Stranger Things” on Netflix,” “Hacks” on Max, and “Family Guy” on Fox, which have either had their writers’ rooms or their production paused. Many more are sure to follow them now that performers have been pulled too.
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Some homeowners looking to switch out their heating and cooling systems are turning to home geothermal — also known as ground source — heat pumps. It’s a technology that relies on a simple physical fact: Dig several feet below Earth’s surface, in the coldest winter or the hottest summer, and the temperature will be around 55 degrees.

Geothermal takes advantage of that constant temperature by pushing water with some antifreeze through a loop of flexible pipe that runs deep underground. The water gets circulated by a heat pump system, usually located in the basement.

When the house needs cooling — say on an 85-degree July day — a refrigerant, which is a special fluid, absorbs unwanted heat indoors and transfers it to water in the long piping, circulating it underground, giving it time to cool to the constant mid-50s below. House air blows across the cool fluid. Having dumped its heat, it can absorb more for transfer to the outdoors.

Warming the building works much the same, in reverse. On a sub-freezing January day, the system circulates the water underground, warming it to about 55 degrees. Arriving back at the pump, the water in the loop now heats the refrigerant, making it want to expand. An electric pump then compresses it, which spikes the temperature. The system then pushes air over the hot refrigerant and into the house until the air in the house reaches thermostat temperature.

In apartment buildings, schools or other commercial buildings, the underground loop may be just a few feet deep and extend horizontally over a wide area. For smaller residential lots, the solution is to drill deeper — as much as 300 feet or more — to get a loop that is long enough for the water be in contact with the ground and equalize with its constant temperature.

Geothermal systems cost more up front than typical furnaces, sometimes tends of thousands of dollars. Supporters say lower operating costs eventually make that worthwhile, because the superpower of ground source heat pumps is that they use very little electricity to move heat around. They’re designed to last more than 50 years for the underground parts, with the above-ground components expected to last 25 years or more. Gas furnaces typically last 15 to 30 years on average.

Geothermal or ground-source heat pumps are still the exception rather than the rule. Air-source heat pump are far more common and work by extracting energy from outdoor air to both heat and cool the home.
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Warmer, drier weather because of an earlier-than-usual El Nino is expected to hamper rice production across Asia, hitting global food security in a world still reeling from the impacts of the war in Ukraine. 

An El Nino is a natural, temporary and occasional warming of part of the Pacific that shifts global weather patterns, and climate change is making them stronger. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced this one in June, a month or two earlier than it usually does. This gives it time to grow. Scientists say there’s a one in four chance it will expand to supersized levels. 

That’s bad news for rice farmers, particularly in Asia where 90% of the world’s rice is grown and eaten, since a strong El Nino typically means less rainfall for the thirsty crop. 

Past El Ninos have resulted in extreme weather, ranging from drought to floods. 

There are already “alarm bells,” said Abdullah Mamun, a research analyst at the International Food Policy Research Institute or IFPRI, pointing to rising rice prices due to shortfalls in production. The average price of 5% broken white rice in June in Thailand was about 16% higher than last year’s average. 

Global stocks have run low since last year, in part due to devastating floods in Pakistan, a major rice exporter. This year’s El Nino may amplify other woes for rice-producing countries, such as reduced availability of fertilizer due to the war and some countries’ export restrictions on rice. Myanmar, Cambodia and Nepal are particularly vulnerable, warned a recent report by research firm BMI. 

“There is uncertainty over the horizon,” Mamun said. 

Recently, global average temperatures have hit record highs. Monsoon rains over India were lighter than usual by the end of June. Indonesian President Joko Widodo on Monday asked his ministers to anticipate a long dry season. And in the Philippines, authorities are carefully managing water to protect vulnerable areas. 

Some countries are bracing for food shortages. Indonesia was among the worst hit by India’s decision to restrict rice exports last year after less rain fell than expected and a historic heat wave scorched wheat, raising worries that domestic food prices would surge. 

Last month, India said it would send more than 1 million metric tons (1.1 million U.S. tons) to Indonesia, Senegal and Gambia to help them meet “their food security needs.” 

Challenges finding fertilizer

Fertilizer is another crucial variable. Last year China, a major producer, restricted exports to keep domestic prices in check after fertilizers were among exports affected by sanctions on Russian ally Belarus for human rights violations. Sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine don’t target fertilizers but the war has disrupted shipments of the three main chemical fertilizers: potash, phosphorus, and nitrogen. 

Bangladesh found suppliers in Canada to make up for lost potash shipments from Belarus, but many countries are still scrambling to find new sources. 

Farmers such as Abu Bakar Siddique, who cultivates 1.2 hectares (3 acres) in northern Bangladesh, had enough fertilizer to keep his yields steady last year. But less rainfall meant he had to rely more on electric pumps for his winter harvest at a time of power shortages due to war-related shortfalls of diesel and coal. 

“This increased my costs,” he said. 

Attempting to adapt

Each El Nino is different, but historical trends suggest scarce rainfall in South and Southeast Asia will parch the soil, causing cascading effects in coming years, said Beau Damen, a natural resources officer with the Food and Agriculture Organization based in Bangkok, Thailand. Some countries, like Indonesia, may be more vulnerable in the early stages of the phenomenon, he said. 

Kusnan, a farmer in Indonesia’s East Java, said rice farmers there have tried to anticipate that by planting earlier so that when the El Nino hits, the rice might be ready for harvest and not need so much water. Kusnan, who like many Indonesians uses only one name, said he hoped high yields last year would help offset any losses this year. 

Widodo, the Indonesian leader, stressed the need to manage water in coming weeks, warning that various factors — including export restrictions and fertilizer shortages — could combine with the El Nino to “make this a particularly damaging event.” 

Baldev Singh, a 52-year-old farmer in northern India’s Punjab state, is already worried. He typically sows rice from late June until mid-July, then needs the monsoon rains to flood the paddies. Less than a tenth of the usual rainfall had come by early this month, and then floods ravaged northern India, battering young crops that had just been planted. 

The government has encouraged Punjab farmers to grow rice along with their traditional wheat crops since the 1960s to improve India’s food security, even though farmers like Singh don’t typically eat rice and irrigation of rice fields has drained the area’s aquifers. But he keeps growing it, counting on the certainty of government purchases at fixed prices. 

With rain scarce, Singh may need to dig wells. Last year, he dug down 200 feet (60 meters) to find water. 

“Rice has been our ruin … I don’t know what will happen in the future,” he said. 

 
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U.S. consumer prices rose 3% in June compared with a year ago, a marked drop in the inflation rate that was the smallest 12-month increase in more than two years, the government reported Wednesday.

A year ago, the U.S. inflation rate soared to an annualized rate of more than 9%, a four-decade high, but since then it has dipped steadily. Last month’s figure is close to the 2% annual inflation rate sought by policymakers at the country’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, and a further drop from the 4% annualized figure recorded in May.

The 3% annualized advance recorded in June was the smallest since March 2021 and affords U.S. consumers further financial relief, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics saying that prices for such diverse items as used cars, gasoline at service stations, meats and airfares dropped. 

The Federal Reserve policymakers have steadily raised their benchmark interest rate over the last 16 months, boosting the cost of consumer and business borrowing in an effort to curb inflation. The Fed is expected to impose another rate increase later this month.  

But with inflation now slowing, further rate increases could be delayed or curtailed. 

The U.S economy, the world’s largest, has remained resilient in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic, continuing to grow. Hundreds of thousands of new jobs have been added month after month and pushed the unemployment rate to a near five-decade low.

Even so, voters have given President Joe Biden low marks for his handling of the U.S. economy because of the high inflation rate, which has squeezed family budgets, especially for the purchase of groceries and gas and monthly rental payments. 

Biden, running for a second term in the November 2024 election, was quick to take credit for the lowered inflation rate. 

“Good jobs and lower costs: That’s Bidenomics in action,” he said. “Today’s report brings new and encouraging evidence that inflation is falling while our economy remains strong. 

“Real wages for the average American worker are now higher than they were before the pandemic, with lower wage workers seeing the largest gains,” he added. “Our progress creating jobs while lowering costs for families is no accident.”

Bankrate.com economic analyst Mark Hamrick said, “The key readings of the Consumer Price Index turn out to be lower than expected across the board both on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis.”

He predicted that “the Fed will almost certainly raise its benchmark rate in a couple of weeks because officials have said as much. It remains to be seen whether they will feel compelled to raise rates further in September or beyond, but it is likely in doubt.”

The three major U.S. indexes all advanced sharply in midday trading on news of the taming of inflation. The benchmark Dow Jones average of 30 blue chip stocks was up nearly a percentage point, while the broader S&P 500 index and the tech-heavy NASDAQ exchange moved even higher.
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Global demand for all forms of energy is forecast to rise by 23% through 2045, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais told a Nigerian oil and gas conference on Tuesday.

Oil executives and officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have repeatedly made the case for continued investment in oil, warning that prices will otherwise spike higher.

Al Ghais also said calls to limit or stop funding new oil projects were unrealistic and unwise. He acknowledged, however, the need for technology to tackle continued fossil fuel emissions.

“Global primary energy demand is forecast to increase by a significant 23% in the period up to 2045, which means we will need all forms of energy,” he said.

“We will require innovative solutions such as carbon capture utilization and storage, and hydrogen projects in addition to a circular carbon economy, which has received a positive endorsement from the G20.”

The global oil industry needs $12.1 trillion in investment during the same period, Al Ghais said, adding the industry was not on track to reach that level of investment yet.

Sources close to OPEC have said it will likely maintain an upbeat view on oil demand growth for next year when it publishes its first outlook later this month, predicting a slowdown from this year but still an above-average increase.

OPEC’s forecast for 2024 will likely be lower than the growth it expects for this year of 2.35 million barrels per day, or 2.4%, an abnormally high rate as the world moves out of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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“Our first meeting with Total they said, ‘Your standard of living will be elevated, you will no longer be poor,” a 48-year-old Ugandan woman supporting seven children, told Human Rights Watch in March. “Now with the oil project starting, we are landless and are the poorest in the country.”

The woman was referring to the French fossil-fuel giant Total Energies. Her comments are included in a Human Rights Watch 47-page report — Our Trust Is Broken: Loss of Land and Livelihoods for Oil in Uganda — released Monday.

According to the rights organization, if the pipeline is completed, it will result in the displacement of more than 100,000 people, cause food insecurity and household debt. It will also force children to leave schools.

TotalEnergies does not view the project in the same way and said on its website that “Each family whose primary residence is being relocated may choose between a new home and monetary compensation in kind. An accessible, transparent and fair complaints-handling system will be running throughout the process.”

HRW says that while 90% of the people who have lost land to the pipeline project have received financial compensation, the payments were delayed for years and people were inadequately compensated.

Nicolas Terraz, vice president, TotalEnergies E&P Africa, said in a statement on the website, that his company has “been in close contact with the local people and has been striving to minimize the projects’ impact on the local community. We are proud to be a part of these major developments for the Company that promise to transform their host countries.”

“EACOP [East African Crude Oil Pipeline] is also a disaster for the planet and the project should not be completed,” said Felix Horne, HRW senior environment researcher.

“The pipeline route traverses sensitive ecosystems, including protected areas and internationally significant wetlands, posing threats to biodiversity and ecosystems that local communities depend on for their sustenance,” HRW said.

Some financial and insurance companies have already said they will not support the pipeline because of the risks it poses and the backlash from environmental activists.

TotalEnergies said on its website: “The route of the pipeline was designed to avoid areas of environmental interest as much as possible, and generally crosses farming areas.”
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held “candid and constructive” talks Friday with China’s Prime Minister Li Qiang in Beijing.

A Treasury Department statement said Yellen “discussed the administration’s desire to seek healthy economic competition with China that benefits both economies, including American workers and businesses.”

She also emphasized close communication on “global macroeconomic and financial issues and working together on global challenges, including debt distress in low-income and emerging economies and climate finance.”

China’s foreign ministry released a statement saying the prime minister noted that U.S. and Chinese economic interests are closely intertwined and that China’s development is an opportunity rather than a challenge to the United States. Beijing said that Yellen stated during the talks the U.S. “does not seek ‘decoupling and disconnection’ and has no intention of hindering China’s modernization process.”

The foreign ministry said, “China and the United States should strengthen coordination and cooperation, join hands to tackle global challenges and promote common development.”

The U.S. treasury secretary began a four-day visit to China on Friday by calling for market reforms in the world’s second-largest economy, and warning that the United States and its allies will fight back against what she called China’s “unfair economic practices.”

Speaking Friday in Beijing to the American Chamber of Commerce in China, Yellen said, “The United States does not seek a wholesale separation of our economies. … The decoupling of the world’s two largest economies would be destabilizing for the global economy, and it would be virtually impossible to undertake.”

And while she noted the importance of trade and investment with China, Yellen also “raised concerns, including barriers to market access, China’s use of non-market tools, and punitive actions that have been taken against U.S. firms in recent months,” during a roundtable with more than 10 U.S. businesses operating in Beijing.

“She also reaffirmed the U.S. economic approach to China, which remains focused on three primary objectives: securing vital interests pertaining to national security and human rights; pursuing healthy and mutually beneficial economic competition, in which China plays by international rules; and seeking mutual cooperation on urgent global challenges, including on the macroeconomy, climate, and global debt,” according to a Treasury Department statement Friday.

China’s foreign ministry said in its statement, “the two sides should strengthen communication and seek consensus on important issues in the bilateral economic field through candid, in-depth, and pragmatic exchanges, so as to inject stability and positive energy into Chinese-U.S. economic relations.”

Yellen arrived in Beijing Thursday and tweeted, U.S. President Joe Biden “charged his administration with deepening communication between our two countries on a range of issues, and I look forward to doing so during my visit.”

Treasury Department officials said ahead of the trip that Yellen would be discussing stabilizing the global economy, as well as challenging China’s support of Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yellen was not expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Her visit, which is scheduled to last through Sunday, follows U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to Beijing last month.

Yellen met earlier this week with China’s ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, where the Treasury Department said Yellen “raised issues of concern while also conveying the importance of the two largest economies working together on global challenges, including on macroeconomic and financial issues.”

Chinese state media said Xie expressed hope that the two countries will eliminate interference and strengthen dialogue.

Some information for this story came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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America’s employers pulled back on hiring but still delivered another month of solid gains in June, adding 209,000 jobs, a sign that the economy’s resilience is confounding the Federal Reserve’s drive to slow growth and inflation.

The latest evidence of economic strength makes it all but certain that the Fed will resume its interest rate hikes later this month after having ended a streak of 10 rate increases that have been intended to curb high inflation.

The June hiring figure reported by the government Friday is the smallest in 2 1/2 years. But it still points to a durable labor market that has produced a historically high number of advertised openings. The unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.6%, near a five-decade low.

Most of the details in the report underscored the job market’s durability. The length of the average work week edged up, a sign that customer demand is strong enough to keep employees busy. And wage growth accelerated: Hourly pay is up 4.4% from a year ago. Wages are now growing faster than year-over-year inflation, which amounted to 4% in May.

The wage data may raise concerns at the Fed, which is worried that faster pay gains will perpetuate inflation by leading companies to raise prices to offset their higher labor costs. The Fed wants to see hiring and wage increases slow before halting its rate hikes.

“This is kind of a Goldilocks report,” said Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, an economic research firm. “It’s a resilient labor market — not too hot, not too cool.”

Friday’s data contained some evidence of a slower pace of hiring, which could reassure the Fed that the economy is moderating. Most of the job growth came from state and local governments, health care companies and private education, which together added 133,000 jobs. Because those sectors don’t depend on robust consumer spending as much as the rest of the economy does, their hiring gains don’t really reflect rising consumer demand — the main fuel for inflation.

Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic Policy Research, noted that excluding government hiring, private-sector job gains totaled 149,000 in June, a pace that does not point to an overheating economy that might alarm the Fed.

“It’s hard to say that’s too fast,” Baker said. “That’s pretty much sustainable.”

The government on Friday also downgraded its estimate of job growth for April and May combined by a substantial 110,000, another sign that hiring has eased from last year’s breakneck pace.

The economy has been beset by high interest rates, elevated inflation and nagging worries about a possible recession resulting from the Fed’s ever-higher interest rates. Even so, many industries keep adding jobs to keep up with consumer spending and restore their workforces to pre-pandemic levels.

The solid pace of hiring and rising wages have enabled consumers to keep spending on services, from traveling to dining out to attending entertainment events. While economists have repeatedly forecast a recession for later this year or next year, a downturn is unlikely as long as companies keep steadily filling jobs.

The Fed has jacked up its key interest rate by a sizable 5 percentage points — the fastest pace of rate hikes in four decades. Those increases have made mortgages, auto loans and other forms of borrowing significantly more expensive.

Some Fed officials have said they are looking for signs of what they describe as better balance in the job market, by which they mean the supply and demand for workers would become more equal. After the economy emerged from the pandemic, the number of available jobs surged above 10 million — the highest level on record.

The burgeoning demand for labor coincided with millions of Americans dropping out of the workforce to retire, avoid COVID, care for relatives or prepare for new careers. With companies struggling to fill openings, many offered sharply higher pay and better benefits to attract or keep employees.

There has been some progress toward a better alignment of supply and demand: More people have started looking for work in recent months, and most of them have found jobs. As the supply of workers has improved, businesses have said they’re seeing more people apply for open positions. The number of job openings dropped in May, a sign that demand for workers is gradually cooling, though it remains above pre-pandemic levels.

In a sign of a potential slowdown in the job market, fewer Americans are quitting their jobs to seek new positions. Quits had soared after the pandemic. Millions of Americans had sought more meaningful or better-paying jobs, stoking the pressure on companies to raise pay to keep their employees. In May, about 4 million Americans left their jobs, up from April’s figure but below a peak of 4.5 million reached last year.

Still, other recent reports suggest that the economy has continued to expand and that demand for workers remains high. On Thursday, a survey of service providers — including banks, restaurants and shipping companies — found that the sector expanded at a healthy clip in June and that services companies accelerated their hiring compared with May.
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The European Union’s ambassador to China expressed regret on Sunday over the lack of “substantial progress” with Beijing on trade talks, as EU countries seek to reduce their economic dependence on the Asian giant.

The European Commission has suspended its efforts to get member states and parliament to ratify an investment agreement reached with China at the end of 2020, after seven years of talks, following differences over human rights in the Muslim-majority region of Xinjiang.

With relations cooling, the EU also decided in May to “readjust” its position towards China to reduce its economic dependence at a time when Beijing is suspected of giving Moscow tacit support for its war in Ukraine.

“I’m sorry to say that we have a dialogue on economic (issues) and trade which has not made any progress, or at least substantial progress, in the last four years,” EU Ambassador Jorge Toledo said at a forum in Beijing.

“We want to engage with China, but we need progress, and we need it this year,” Toledo said, adding that a high-level economic dialogue between the two sides would be held in September.

For the EU, China is “simultaneously a partner, a competitor and a systemic rival”, he said.

The European Commission unveiled a strategy last month to respond more decisively to economic security risks, with China in particular in its sights.

The Commission put forward proposals in March to secure supplies of materials, such as lithium or nickel, needed for the production of key technologies such as batteries and solar panels.

Germany, France and Italy said last week they would cooperate more closely on the procurement of raw materials as Europe aims to reduce its reliance on imports from countries such as China.

One of the most contentious issues between the EU and China relates to Beijing’s ambiguous position on Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

While China does not recognize the territories annexed by Russia in Ukraine, it also has not condemned Moscow’s invasion.

“Ukraine, for instance, (is) the issue which can make or break relations between the European Union and China,” Spain’s ambassador to China, Rafael Dezcallar Mazarredo, said at the same forum. “It can improve them substantially, or it can send them down a very negative path.”
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China’s recent economic slowdown will have a negative but limited impact on the rest of Asia this year as China struggles to recover from the impact of the global pandemic and strict COVID Zero restrictions throughout 2022, according to analysts.

Beijing has set a modest 5% growth target for the country this year as it recovers from a sharp drop last year because of the COVID restrictions, but even that may be a challenge because of problems across its economy, said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, a French investment bank.

“I think they will barely reach 5% and no more. That’s actually quite low compared to Southeast Asia. Certainly India, but also others,” Garcia Herrero told VOA, predicting that China will continue to diverge throughout 2024 as the rebound momentum from the end of COVID-19 pandemic fades.

China’s GDP target is higher than for developed economies of East Asia such as Taiwan and Japan, both between around 2% and 3%, but less than Vietnam and India which may see more than 6% growth this year, according to the Asian Development Bank.

China is facing a range of challenges from limited domestic and foreign investment this year and a drop in demand for its exports due to a worldwide economic slump.

Economic indicators in May such as industrial production and retail sales figures were also low, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which also warned macro-economic challenges such as a high youth unemployment rate of over 20% “cannot be ignored.”

Exports fell 7.5% and imports fell 4.5% in May, according to NBS data, marking a reversal in fortunes from earlier in the year.

In a sign of Beijing’s concern, its central bank lowered lending rates this month to encourage more consumption and keep the economy humming along.

This range of factors means China’s recovery is going more slowly than analysts had hoped after it lifted COVID restrictions in late 2022, said Nick Marro, lead analyst for global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“Even as China’s rebound peaked over the first quarter, we weren’t seeing a lot of benefits spread out to the rest of Asia or other regions,” he said. “And as China’s economy continues to lose momentum, that positive outlook for the reopening is I think going to disappoint a lot of people who are hoping, a much stronger lift from China’s rebound than what has actually materialized.”

Unlike many other countries struggling with inflation, such as the U.S. and Europe, China is facing deflationary pressure due to a fall in global demand for its goods. Both export and wholesale prices are falling, which means Beijing can no longer rely on its pandemic strategy of “export[ing] itself out of the pandemic” on the back of strong Western demand, said Marro.

“Those dynamics are changing. Now that we’re seeing a strong cooldown in the global demand landscape, and a correction in global trade so that export strength is no longer going to be a pillar for Chinese economic growth,” he said.

Meanwhile, manufactures are still struggling through the impact of 2022 COVID Zero restrictions and the Shanghai lockdown on supply chains, according to Gavekal Dragonomics research.

China’s growth in 2023 has instead been largely driven by consumption, a highly unusual situation, as it typically relies on exports, real estate, and construction to fuel its economy, said Christopher Beddor, deputy China researcher at Gavekal Dragonomics. 

This is bad news for neighbors that export intermediate goods and raw materials that are used in its manufacturing industry, he said. Consumption-driven growth also has a much smaller “multiplier” than other kinds of growth, which means it will have a weaker impact on the rest of the economy.

“China’s economy and growth this year are going to lead to a very different impact on other countries in the region compared to previous cycles that were driven by other areas of the economy,” Beddor said.

The one major bright spot for the region is Chinese tourism is surging thanks to three years of pent-up demand. Gaveskal Dragonomics predicts tourism could rebound from $118 billion in 2022 to nearly $100 billion more this year, bringing it close to pre-pandemic levels of $251 billion in 2019 as Chinese tourists return to popular countries like Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Singapore.
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Here comes “Bidenomics,” President Joe Biden’s self-named plan to forge an economic future “for families and communities that have long been written off and left behind.” On Wednesday, he visited Chicago — a legendary city in the nation’s once-booming industrial and agricultural heartland — to introduce Bidenomics to the world. VOA’s Anita Powell reports from Washington. Patsy Widakuswara contributed to this report.
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Ahead of President Joe Biden’s 2024 reelection campaign, the White House is promoting the term “Bidenomics” to make the case that his policies to “grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out” have succeeded in taming inflation and lowering unemployment.

“The share of working-age Americans in the workforce is higher now than it has been for 15 years,” Lael Brainard, director of the White House National Economic Council, said Tuesday during a news briefing. “While we have more work to do, inflation has been coming down for 11 months in a row.”

She touted 13 million jobs created since Biden took office in February 2021 and an unemployment rate that has remained below 4% since February of this year.

Recent economic indicators give the administration reasons to be hopeful. While inflation still poses a challenge, employers continue to hire, and consumer prices rose at a slower pace in May compared with the previous year.

But so far most Americans do not share the administration’s optimism. The most recent Ipsos poll shows Biden’s approval rating remaining steady in the low 40s. The economy remains a top concern, and most are pessimistic about the direction of the country, a fact that Republicans have been eager to underscore.

“It’s frankly staggering to me that the president continues to have the audacity to say things like ‘hardworking families are reaping the rewards’ of his policies,” Senate Republican Whip John Thune said earlier this month. “Hardworking families are certainly reaping something from the president’s policies, but it isn’t rewards.”

Disconnect from data

The disconnect between economic data and how people are feeling about their financial well-being may be attributed to the fact that Americans are not digesting the good news, said Ipsos spokesperson Chris Jackson. He pointed to surveys measuring Americans’ familiarity with positive economic developments such as low unemployment and falling inflation versus bad news such as supply chain issues and high inflation.

“The bad news, everyone knows about. The good news, very few Americans know about,” he told VOA. “In an environment like that, it’s hard to make a compelling case that you’re doing a good job, when nobody knows anything that’s good.”

The administration is aware of the disconnect. On Wednesday, Biden will be in Chicago to deliver a speech explaining Bidenomics and trying to convince Americans that the economy is thriving under his leadership.

The speech is part of a three-week push in which top officials will travel across the country to argue that legislation championed by the president is delivering results for Americans. This includes massive investments under the infrastructure law, the COVID-19 relief package and the CHIPS and Science Act that injects over $52 billion in semiconductor research, development, manufacturing and workforce development.

Republicans believe some of the administration’s policies are too costly and contribute to high inflation. They say that most of the job gains since 2021 were simply jobs that were being recovered from the pandemic, not new job creation.

Still, the decision to brand the country’s fortunes with the president’s name reflects the administration’s confidence that the trajectory is upward, and the economy will not fall into recession – at least before November 2024 when the presidential election will be held.

Last week, the Federal Reserve paused its aggressive rate hike campaign for the first time in 18 months but signaled that the battle against inflation isn’t over. More interest rate hikes are likely, even as early as July.

Move over, Reaganomics

Bidenomics is also an attempt to distinguish the president’s and the Democrats’ agenda from that of Republicans who favor cutting taxes and slashing government spending.

Biden and his aides have often criticized former Republican President Ronald Reagan’s agenda of lowering tax rates, deregulation and slashing spending on government programs. Since the push for Reaganomics in the 1980s, Republicans have credited low taxes with boosting corporate profits and ultimately all workers and the population in general.

“He rejected trickle-down economics, the theory that tax cuts at the top would trickle down, that all we needed was for government to get out of the way,” said Brainard, the director of Biden’s economic council.

“That failed approach led to a pullback of private investment from key industries, like semiconductors to solar. It led to a deterioration of the nation’s infrastructure. And it led to a loss of a path to the middle class for too many Americans and too many communities around the country.”

Brainard said that in Chicago, the president will outline the main pillars of Bidenomics, including strategic investments in critical sectors such as infrastructure, clean energy and semiconductors; empowering and educating American workers, particularly those who have been previously marginalized; and promoting competition to lower costs and provide fair opportunities for small businesses.

Just two weeks ago, Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives unveiled a proposed series of new tax breaks aimed at businesses and families, a proposal that would reverse some of Biden’s legislative victories.

Katherine Gypson contributed to this report.
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Zimbabwe officials say the country’s annual inflation rate more than doubled from May to June, to more than 175%.  Economists say multiple devaluations of Zimbabwe’s struggling dollar led prices to surge. 

Average Zimbabweans are feeling the effects of the country’s weak currency, known as bond notes or ZWL, which has been losing value against the U.S. dollar. 

Forty-year-old Kathleen Maswera said her salary in local currency has lost about 70% of its value since the beginning of the year. She has been begging her employer to adjust her pay. 

“So, it’s very difficult. Everything is going up, you get into the shop the next time the rate has changed, everything has changed, so it’s tough,” she said. “I take care of school going children, I also take care of my niece, who is not employed right now. So, it’s very tough. I have to work on contracts, all the money that I work is from hand to mouth. So, it’s quite difficult at the moment.”

Taguma Mahonde, the director-general of the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency, said the country’s inflation rate remains high and accelerated this month. 

“The month-on-month inflation rate in June 2023 was 74.5%, gaining 58.8 percentage points on the May 2023 rate of 15.7%, he said. “The year-on-year inflation rate for the month of June 2023 as measured by the all-items Consumer Price Index was 175.8%.”

Trust Chikohora, a businessman and economic commentator, as well as former president of Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce, said the rising inflation number are because of the local currency, which has been losing value against the U.S. dollar, forcing prices to go up. 

On a positive note, he said the inflation rate may soon start heading down.

“Maybe it will start to even out as we move forward in July and beyond, especially if the government continues to move with measures they have been putting in place now,” he said. “That’s to minimize activity on the parallel market, to have [a] situation where interest rates are higher than inflation, money supply growth needs to be curtailed so that government is not pumping Zim dollar money into the market.”  

That would be surely good news for average Zimbabweans whose wages can’t keep up with the rising prices at the market. 
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Market researchers have noted that since the COVID-19 pandemic started, Americans have been spending more time on the water. And that has helped keep the recreational boating industry afloat. Liliya Anisimova has the story, narrated by Anna Rice. Videographer: Aleksandr Bergan   
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The upcoming Eid al-Adha holiday, or the major Muslim Feast of Sacrifice, highlights the difficulties that Egypt’s most vulnerable households are facing in the country’s deepening economic crisis.
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