HRW Reports Warn About Risks of Ugandan Pipeline  

“Our first meeting with Total they said, ‘Your standard of living will be elevated, you will no longer be poor,” a 48-year-old Ugandan woman supporting seven children, told Human Rights Watch in March. “Now with the oil project starting, we are landless and are the poorest in the country.”

The woman was referring to the French fossil-fuel giant Total Energies. Her comments are included in a Human Rights Watch 47-page report — Our Trust Is Broken: Loss of Land and Livelihoods for Oil in Uganda — released Monday.

According to the rights organization, if the pipeline is completed, it will result in the displacement of more than 100,000 people, cause food insecurity and household debt. It will also force children to leave schools.

TotalEnergies does not view the project in the same way and said on its website that “Each family whose primary residence is being relocated may choose between a new home and monetary compensation in kind. An accessible, transparent and fair complaints-handling system will be running throughout the process.”

HRW says that while 90% of the people who have lost land to the pipeline project have received financial compensation, the payments were delayed for years and people were inadequately compensated.

Nicolas Terraz, vice president, TotalEnergies E&P Africa, said in a statement on the website, that his company has “been in close contact with the local people and has been striving to minimize the projects’ impact on the local community. We are proud to be a part of these major developments for the Company that promise to transform their host countries.”

“EACOP [East African Crude Oil Pipeline] is also a disaster for the planet and the project should not be completed,” said Felix Horne, HRW senior environment researcher.

“The pipeline route traverses sensitive ecosystems, including protected areas and internationally significant wetlands, posing threats to biodiversity and ecosystems that local communities depend on for their sustenance,” HRW said.

Some financial and insurance companies have already said they will not support the pipeline because of the risks it poses and the backlash from environmental activists.

TotalEnergies said on its website: “The route of the pipeline was designed to avoid areas of environmental interest as much as possible, and generally crosses farming areas.”

US Treasury Secretary Holds ‘Candid and Constructive’ Talks With China’s PM

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held “candid and constructive” talks Friday with China’s Prime Minister Li Qiang in Beijing.

A Treasury Department statement said Yellen “discussed the administration’s desire to seek healthy economic competition with China that benefits both economies, including American workers and businesses.”

She also emphasized close communication on “global macroeconomic and financial issues and working together on global challenges, including debt distress in low-income and emerging economies and climate finance.”

China’s foreign ministry released a statement saying the prime minister noted that U.S. and Chinese economic interests are closely intertwined and that China’s development is an opportunity rather than a challenge to the United States. Beijing said that Yellen stated during the talks the U.S. “does not seek ‘decoupling and disconnection’ and has no intention of hindering China’s modernization process.”

The foreign ministry said, “China and the United States should strengthen coordination and cooperation, join hands to tackle global challenges and promote common development.”

The U.S. treasury secretary began a four-day visit to China on Friday by calling for market reforms in the world’s second-largest economy, and warning that the United States and its allies will fight back against what she called China’s “unfair economic practices.”

Speaking Friday in Beijing to the American Chamber of Commerce in China, Yellen said, “The United States does not seek a wholesale separation of our economies. … The decoupling of the world’s two largest economies would be destabilizing for the global economy, and it would be virtually impossible to undertake.”

And while she noted the importance of trade and investment with China, Yellen also “raised concerns, including barriers to market access, China’s use of non-market tools, and punitive actions that have been taken against U.S. firms in recent months,” during a roundtable with more than 10 U.S. businesses operating in Beijing.

“She also reaffirmed the U.S. economic approach to China, which remains focused on three primary objectives: securing vital interests pertaining to national security and human rights; pursuing healthy and mutually beneficial economic competition, in which China plays by international rules; and seeking mutual cooperation on urgent global challenges, including on the macroeconomy, climate, and global debt,” according to a Treasury Department statement Friday.

China’s foreign ministry said in its statement, “the two sides should strengthen communication and seek consensus on important issues in the bilateral economic field through candid, in-depth, and pragmatic exchanges, so as to inject stability and positive energy into Chinese-U.S. economic relations.”

Yellen arrived in Beijing Thursday and tweeted, U.S. President Joe Biden “charged his administration with deepening communication between our two countries on a range of issues, and I look forward to doing so during my visit.”

Treasury Department officials said ahead of the trip that Yellen would be discussing stabilizing the global economy, as well as challenging China’s support of Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yellen was not expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Her visit, which is scheduled to last through Sunday, follows U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to Beijing last month.

Yellen met earlier this week with China’s ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, where the Treasury Department said Yellen “raised issues of concern while also conveying the importance of the two largest economies working together on global challenges, including on macroeconomic and financial issues.”

Chinese state media said Xie expressed hope that the two countries will eliminate interference and strengthen dialogue.

Some information for this story came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.

US Slowed Hiring But Still Added a Solid 209,000 Jobs in June in Sign of Economy’s Resilience

America’s employers pulled back on hiring but still delivered another month of solid gains in June, adding 209,000 jobs, a sign that the economy’s resilience is confounding the Federal Reserve’s drive to slow growth and inflation.

The latest evidence of economic strength makes it all but certain that the Fed will resume its interest rate hikes later this month after having ended a streak of 10 rate increases that have been intended to curb high inflation.

The June hiring figure reported by the government Friday is the smallest in 2 1/2 years. But it still points to a durable labor market that has produced a historically high number of advertised openings. The unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.6%, near a five-decade low.

Most of the details in the report underscored the job market’s durability. The length of the average work week edged up, a sign that customer demand is strong enough to keep employees busy. And wage growth accelerated: Hourly pay is up 4.4% from a year ago. Wages are now growing faster than year-over-year inflation, which amounted to 4% in May.

The wage data may raise concerns at the Fed, which is worried that faster pay gains will perpetuate inflation by leading companies to raise prices to offset their higher labor costs. The Fed wants to see hiring and wage increases slow before halting its rate hikes.

“This is kind of a Goldilocks report,” said Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, an economic research firm. “It’s a resilient labor market — not too hot, not too cool.”

Friday’s data contained some evidence of a slower pace of hiring, which could reassure the Fed that the economy is moderating. Most of the job growth came from state and local governments, health care companies and private education, which together added 133,000 jobs. Because those sectors don’t depend on robust consumer spending as much as the rest of the economy does, their hiring gains don’t really reflect rising consumer demand — the main fuel for inflation.

Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic Policy Research, noted that excluding government hiring, private-sector job gains totaled 149,000 in June, a pace that does not point to an overheating economy that might alarm the Fed.

“It’s hard to say that’s too fast,” Baker said. “That’s pretty much sustainable.”

The government on Friday also downgraded its estimate of job growth for April and May combined by a substantial 110,000, another sign that hiring has eased from last year’s breakneck pace.

The economy has been beset by high interest rates, elevated inflation and nagging worries about a possible recession resulting from the Fed’s ever-higher interest rates. Even so, many industries keep adding jobs to keep up with consumer spending and restore their workforces to pre-pandemic levels.

The solid pace of hiring and rising wages have enabled consumers to keep spending on services, from traveling to dining out to attending entertainment events. While economists have repeatedly forecast a recession for later this year or next year, a downturn is unlikely as long as companies keep steadily filling jobs.

The Fed has jacked up its key interest rate by a sizable 5 percentage points — the fastest pace of rate hikes in four decades. Those increases have made mortgages, auto loans and other forms of borrowing significantly more expensive.

Some Fed officials have said they are looking for signs of what they describe as better balance in the job market, by which they mean the supply and demand for workers would become more equal. After the economy emerged from the pandemic, the number of available jobs surged above 10 million — the highest level on record.

The burgeoning demand for labor coincided with millions of Americans dropping out of the workforce to retire, avoid COVID, care for relatives or prepare for new careers. With companies struggling to fill openings, many offered sharply higher pay and better benefits to attract or keep employees.

There has been some progress toward a better alignment of supply and demand: More people have started looking for work in recent months, and most of them have found jobs. As the supply of workers has improved, businesses have said they’re seeing more people apply for open positions. The number of job openings dropped in May, a sign that demand for workers is gradually cooling, though it remains above pre-pandemic levels.

In a sign of a potential slowdown in the job market, fewer Americans are quitting their jobs to seek new positions. Quits had soared after the pandemic. Millions of Americans had sought more meaningful or better-paying jobs, stoking the pressure on companies to raise pay to keep their employees. In May, about 4 million Americans left their jobs, up from April’s figure but below a peak of 4.5 million reached last year.

Still, other recent reports suggest that the economy has continued to expand and that demand for workers remains high. On Thursday, a survey of service providers — including banks, restaurants and shipping companies — found that the sector expanded at a healthy clip in June and that services companies accelerated their hiring compared with May.

EU Ambassador Regrets Lack of Progress With China on Trade

The European Union’s ambassador to China expressed regret on Sunday over the lack of “substantial progress” with Beijing on trade talks, as EU countries seek to reduce their economic dependence on the Asian giant.

The European Commission has suspended its efforts to get member states and parliament to ratify an investment agreement reached with China at the end of 2020, after seven years of talks, following differences over human rights in the Muslim-majority region of Xinjiang.

With relations cooling, the EU also decided in May to “readjust” its position towards China to reduce its economic dependence at a time when Beijing is suspected of giving Moscow tacit support for its war in Ukraine.

“I’m sorry to say that we have a dialogue on economic (issues) and trade which has not made any progress, or at least substantial progress, in the last four years,” EU Ambassador Jorge Toledo said at a forum in Beijing.

“We want to engage with China, but we need progress, and we need it this year,” Toledo said, adding that a high-level economic dialogue between the two sides would be held in September.

For the EU, China is “simultaneously a partner, a competitor and a systemic rival”, he said.

The European Commission unveiled a strategy last month to respond more decisively to economic security risks, with China in particular in its sights.

The Commission put forward proposals in March to secure supplies of materials, such as lithium or nickel, needed for the production of key technologies such as batteries and solar panels.

Germany, France and Italy said last week they would cooperate more closely on the procurement of raw materials as Europe aims to reduce its reliance on imports from countries such as China.

One of the most contentious issues between the EU and China relates to Beijing’s ambiguous position on Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

While China does not recognize the territories annexed by Russia in Ukraine, it also has not condemned Moscow’s invasion.

“Ukraine, for instance, (is) the issue which can make or break relations between the European Union and China,” Spain’s ambassador to China, Rafael Dezcallar Mazarredo, said at the same forum. “It can improve them substantially, or it can send them down a very negative path.”

China’s Slow Economic Recovery Expected to Challenge Asia

China’s recent economic slowdown will have a negative but limited impact on the rest of Asia this year as China struggles to recover from the impact of the global pandemic and strict COVID Zero restrictions throughout 2022, according to analysts.

Beijing has set a modest 5% growth target for the country this year as it recovers from a sharp drop last year because of the COVID restrictions, but even that may be a challenge because of problems across its economy, said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, a French investment bank.

“I think they will barely reach 5% and no more. That’s actually quite low compared to Southeast Asia. Certainly India, but also others,” Garcia Herrero told VOA, predicting that China will continue to diverge throughout 2024 as the rebound momentum from the end of COVID-19 pandemic fades.

China’s GDP target is higher than for developed economies of East Asia such as Taiwan and Japan, both between around 2% and 3%, but less than Vietnam and India which may see more than 6% growth this year, according to the Asian Development Bank.

China is facing a range of challenges from limited domestic and foreign investment this year and a drop in demand for its exports due to a worldwide economic slump.

Economic indicators in May such as industrial production and retail sales figures were also low, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which also warned macro-economic challenges such as a high youth unemployment rate of over 20% “cannot be ignored.”

Exports fell 7.5% and imports fell 4.5% in May, according to NBS data, marking a reversal in fortunes from earlier in the year.

In a sign of Beijing’s concern, its central bank lowered lending rates this month to encourage more consumption and keep the economy humming along.

This range of factors means China’s recovery is going more slowly than analysts had hoped after it lifted COVID restrictions in late 2022, said Nick Marro, lead analyst for global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“Even as China’s rebound peaked over the first quarter, we weren’t seeing a lot of benefits spread out to the rest of Asia or other regions,” he said. “And as China’s economy continues to lose momentum, that positive outlook for the reopening is I think going to disappoint a lot of people who are hoping, a much stronger lift from China’s rebound than what has actually materialized.”

Unlike many other countries struggling with inflation, such as the U.S. and Europe, China is facing deflationary pressure due to a fall in global demand for its goods. Both export and wholesale prices are falling, which means Beijing can no longer rely on its pandemic strategy of “export[ing] itself out of the pandemic” on the back of strong Western demand, said Marro.

“Those dynamics are changing. Now that we’re seeing a strong cooldown in the global demand landscape, and a correction in global trade so that export strength is no longer going to be a pillar for Chinese economic growth,” he said.

Meanwhile, manufactures are still struggling through the impact of 2022 COVID Zero restrictions and the Shanghai lockdown on supply chains, according to Gavekal Dragonomics research.

China’s growth in 2023 has instead been largely driven by consumption, a highly unusual situation, as it typically relies on exports, real estate, and construction to fuel its economy, said Christopher Beddor, deputy China researcher at Gavekal Dragonomics. 

This is bad news for neighbors that export intermediate goods and raw materials that are used in its manufacturing industry, he said. Consumption-driven growth also has a much smaller “multiplier” than other kinds of growth, which means it will have a weaker impact on the rest of the economy.

“China’s economy and growth this year are going to lead to a very different impact on other countries in the region compared to previous cycles that were driven by other areas of the economy,” Beddor said.

The one major bright spot for the region is Chinese tourism is surging thanks to three years of pent-up demand. Gaveskal Dragonomics predicts tourism could rebound from $118 billion in 2022 to nearly $100 billion more this year, bringing it close to pre-pandemic levels of $251 billion in 2019 as Chinese tourists return to popular countries like Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Singapore.

Biden Refutes Top-Down Economic Policy with ‘Bidenomics’

Here comes “Bidenomics,” President Joe Biden’s self-named plan to forge an economic future “for families and communities that have long been written off and left behind.” On Wednesday, he visited Chicago — a legendary city in the nation’s once-booming industrial and agricultural heartland — to introduce Bidenomics to the world. VOA’s Anita Powell reports from Washington. Patsy Widakuswara contributed to this report.

White House Takes a Bet on ‘Bidenomics’ Amid Americans’ Pessimism on Economy

Ahead of President Joe Biden’s 2024 reelection campaign, the White House is promoting the term “Bidenomics” to make the case that his policies to “grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out” have succeeded in taming inflation and lowering unemployment.

“The share of working-age Americans in the workforce is higher now than it has been for 15 years,” Lael Brainard, director of the White House National Economic Council, said Tuesday during a news briefing. “While we have more work to do, inflation has been coming down for 11 months in a row.”

She touted 13 million jobs created since Biden took office in February 2021 and an unemployment rate that has remained below 4% since February of this year.

Recent economic indicators give the administration reasons to be hopeful. While inflation still poses a challenge, employers continue to hire, and consumer prices rose at a slower pace in May compared with the previous year.

But so far most Americans do not share the administration’s optimism. The most recent Ipsos poll shows Biden’s approval rating remaining steady in the low 40s. The economy remains a top concern, and most are pessimistic about the direction of the country, a fact that Republicans have been eager to underscore.

“It’s frankly staggering to me that the president continues to have the audacity to say things like ‘hardworking families are reaping the rewards’ of his policies,” Senate Republican Whip John Thune said earlier this month. “Hardworking families are certainly reaping something from the president’s policies, but it isn’t rewards.”

Disconnect from data

The disconnect between economic data and how people are feeling about their financial well-being may be attributed to the fact that Americans are not digesting the good news, said Ipsos spokesperson Chris Jackson. He pointed to surveys measuring Americans’ familiarity with positive economic developments such as low unemployment and falling inflation versus bad news such as supply chain issues and high inflation.

“The bad news, everyone knows about. The good news, very few Americans know about,” he told VOA. “In an environment like that, it’s hard to make a compelling case that you’re doing a good job, when nobody knows anything that’s good.”

The administration is aware of the disconnect. On Wednesday, Biden will be in Chicago to deliver a speech explaining Bidenomics and trying to convince Americans that the economy is thriving under his leadership.

 

The speech is part of a three-week push in which top officials will travel across the country to argue that legislation championed by the president is delivering results for Americans. This includes massive investments under the infrastructure law, the COVID-19 relief package and the CHIPS and Science Act that injects over $52 billion in semiconductor research, development, manufacturing and workforce development.

Republicans believe some of the administration’s policies are too costly and contribute to high inflation. They say that most of the job gains since 2021 were simply jobs that were being recovered from the pandemic, not new job creation.

Still, the decision to brand the country’s fortunes with the president’s name reflects the administration’s confidence that the trajectory is upward, and the economy will not fall into recession – at least before November 2024 when the presidential election will be held.

Last week, the Federal Reserve paused its aggressive rate hike campaign for the first time in 18 months but signaled that the battle against inflation isn’t over. More interest rate hikes are likely, even as early as July.

Move over, Reaganomics

Bidenomics is also an attempt to distinguish the president’s and the Democrats’ agenda from that of Republicans who favor cutting taxes and slashing government spending.

Biden and his aides have often criticized former Republican President Ronald Reagan’s agenda of lowering tax rates, deregulation and slashing spending on government programs. Since the push for Reaganomics in the 1980s, Republicans have credited low taxes with boosting corporate profits and ultimately all workers and the population in general.

“He rejected trickle-down economics, the theory that tax cuts at the top would trickle down, that all we needed was for government to get out of the way,” said Brainard, the director of Biden’s economic council.

“That failed approach led to a pullback of private investment from key industries, like semiconductors to solar. It led to a deterioration of the nation’s infrastructure. And it led to a loss of a path to the middle class for too many Americans and too many communities around the country.”

Brainard said that in Chicago, the president will outline the main pillars of Bidenomics, including strategic investments in critical sectors such as infrastructure, clean energy and semiconductors; empowering and educating American workers, particularly those who have been previously marginalized; and promoting competition to lower costs and provide fair opportunities for small businesses.

Just two weeks ago, Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives unveiled a proposed series of new tax breaks aimed at businesses and families, a proposal that would reverse some of Biden’s legislative victories.

Katherine Gypson contributed to this report.

Zimbabwe Inflation Hits 175% as Currency Continues Crashing Against US Dollar

Zimbabwe officials say the country’s annual inflation rate more than doubled from May to June, to more than 175%.  Economists say multiple devaluations of Zimbabwe’s struggling dollar led prices to surge. 

Average Zimbabweans are feeling the effects of the country’s weak currency, known as bond notes or ZWL, which has been losing value against the U.S. dollar. 

Forty-year-old Kathleen Maswera said her salary in local currency has lost about 70% of its value since the beginning of the year. She has been begging her employer to adjust her pay. 

“So, it’s very difficult. Everything is going up, you get into the shop the next time the rate has changed, everything has changed, so it’s tough,” she said. “I take care of school going children, I also take care of my niece, who is not employed right now. So, it’s very tough. I have to work on contracts, all the money that I work is from hand to mouth. So, it’s quite difficult at the moment.”

Taguma Mahonde, the director-general of the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency, said the country’s inflation rate remains high and accelerated this month. 

“The month-on-month inflation rate in June 2023 was 74.5%, gaining 58.8 percentage points on the May 2023 rate of 15.7%, he said. “The year-on-year inflation rate for the month of June 2023 as measured by the all-items Consumer Price Index was 175.8%.”

Trust Chikohora, a businessman and economic commentator, as well as former president of Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce, said the rising inflation number are because of the local currency, which has been losing value against the U.S. dollar, forcing prices to go up. 

On a positive note, he said the inflation rate may soon start heading down.

“Maybe it will start to even out as we move forward in July and beyond, especially if the government continues to move with measures they have been putting in place now,” he said. “That’s to minimize activity on the parallel market, to have [a] situation where interest rates are higher than inflation, money supply growth needs to be curtailed so that government is not pumping Zim dollar money into the market.”  

That would be surely good news for average Zimbabweans whose wages can’t keep up with the rising prices at the market. 

Packages From China Are Surging Into US; Some Say $800 Duty-Free Limit Was Mistake

Conservatives anxious to counter America’s leading economic adversary have set their sights on a top trade priority for labor unions and progressives: cracking down on the deluge of duty-free packages coming in from China.

The changing political dynamic could have major ramifications for e-commerce businesses and consumers importing products from China valued at less than $800. It also could add to the growing tensions between the countries.

Under current U.S. law, most imports valued at less than $800 enter duty-free into the United States as long as they are packaged and addressed to individual buyers. It’s referred to as the de minimis rule. Efforts to lower the threshold amount or exclude certain countries altogether from duty-free treatment are set to become a major trade fight in this Congress.

“De minimis has become a proxy for all sorts of anxieties as it relates to China and other trade-related challenges,” said John Drake, a vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, who argues that the current U.S. law should be preserved.

The rule speeds the pace of commerce and lowers costs for consumers. It also allows U.S. Customs and Border Protection to focus its resources on the bigger-ticket items that generate more tariff revenue for the federal government.

The volume of products coming into the U.S. that benefit from the de minimis rule has soared in recent years. Congress raised the U.S. government’s threshold for expedited, duty-free treatment from $200 to $800 in 2016.

The volume of such imports has since risen from about 220 million packages that year to 771 million in 2021 — with China accounting for about 60%, according to the government — and 685 million last year.

“I think everybody’s got to kind of wrap their head around what kind of mistake this was,” Robert Lighthizer, the former U.S. trade representative during the Trump administration, told a House panel last month. “Nobody dreamt this would ever happen. Now we have packages coming in, 2 million packages a day, almost all from China. We have no idea what’s in them. We don’t really know what the value is.”

Lighthizer urged Congress to get rid of the de minimis rule altogether, or take it to a much lower amount, say $50 or $100. He said foreign companies are taking advantage of the “loophole” and “putting people out of work in stores; they’re putting people out of work in manufacturing.”

Last year, House Democrats pushed to prohibit Chinese-made goods from benefiting from the special treatment for lower-cost goods. That move was part of a larger measure that boosted investments in semiconductor manufacturing and research.

In the rush to get a bill passed before the 2022 elections, the Biden administration and Democratic leaders jettisoned provisions without bipartisan buy-in. The trade provision was opposed by important U.S. business groups and key Republican members of Congress, so it didn’t make the final bill.

Fast forward just a few months and it’s clear the political dynamic has shifted — and quickly.

In its first set of recommendations, a new House committee focused exclusively on China called for legislation that would reduce the threshold for duty-free shipments into the U.S. with a particular focus on “foreign adversaries, including the (People’s Republic of China.)”

The Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party said that exploiting the $800 threshold may be a major avenue through which Chinese companies selling directly to American consumers can circumvent U.S. law designed to prevent the sale of goods made with forced labor. The committee also said Customs and Border Protection “could not reasonably scrutinize” goods sent under the $800 threshold for forced labor concerns because of the sheer number of products coming in.

The committee is most concerned about retailers Temu and Shein, which ship directly to consumers in the U.S. In a report released Thursday, it said the two companies alone are likely responsible for more than 30% of all de minimis shipments entering the U.S. each day, or nearly 600,000 a day last year.

The committee also has competitiveness concerns. It points out that U.S. retailers such as Gap and H&M paid $700 million and $205 million in import duties, respectively, in 2022. In contrast, virtually all of the goods sold by Temu and Shein are shipped using the de minimis exception in which the importer pays no duty.

Committees with jurisdiction over trade are also signaling a new mindset. Last year, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, Texas Rep. Kevin Brady, since retired, warned against what he called “hasty changes in reasonable de minimis limits.”

But the Republican now leading the House Ways and Means Committee, Rep. Jason Smith of Missouri, said he wants to “have a lot of conversations” about the $800 threshold.

“Basically, when you’re looking at $800 or less, that’s a free-trade agreement with anyone. And you’re looking at millions of products that come in per day. We need to look at it,” Smith said.

Meanwhile, the Senate has some bills on the issue, which were just introduced this month.

One, from Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., would prevent the expedited, tariff-free treatment of imports from certain countries, most notably China and Russia.

The other, from Sens. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., not only similarly targets China and Russia, but would affect other trade partners. It would do so by reducing the threshold for duty-free treatment to the amount that other nations use.

For example, taking a country like Belgium, which uses the European Union threshold of 150 euros, or about $165 currently – then the U.S. would reciprocate and use that same amount when determining whether goods coming in from Belgium get duty-free and expedited treatment.

Cassidy said it was former President Donald Trump who “really reframed the argument” for Republicans when it comes to trade with China.

“He pointed out that, through a variety of mechanisms, they are taking jobs, not because they are out-competing us, but because they are subsidizing, because they are using forced labor, that sort of thing,” Cassidy said.

In early 2022, when Congress was considering putting the de minimis trade provision in the semiconductor bill, several business groups led by the Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers wrote congressional leaders urging them to keep it out. They said the changes would “impose sweeping costs on American businesses, workers and consumers, add new inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy, and exacerbate ongoing supply chain disruptions at U.S. ports.”

Drake said that cutting back the threshold not only would represent a big tax increase for many U.S. small businesses, but many would have to hire a customs broker to process their shipments.

“There’s a reason Congress raised the level back in 2016,” Drake said. “They knew in addition to it being a competitive advantage for the U.S. business community, they also recognized that collecting duties on these low-value shipments, you know, really wasn’t worth the trouble.”

Pakistan’s Parliament Approves Revised Budget to Clinch IMF Deal 

Pakistan’s parliament on Sunday approved the government’s 2023-24 budget which was revised to meet International Monetary Fund conditions in a last ditch effort to secure the release of more bailout funds.

The IMF in mid-June expressed dissatisfaction with the country’s initial budget, saying it was a missed opportunity to broaden the tax base in a more progressive way.

The revised budget was approved a day after Finance Minister Ishaq Dar introduced new taxes and expenditure cuts.

“The [finance] bill is passed,” House Speaker Raja Pervaiz Ashraf said in a live TV broadcast on Sunday.

With currency reserves barely enough to cover one month’s imports, Pakistan is facing an acute balance of payment crisis, which analysts say could spiral into a debt default if the IMF funds do not come through.

There are five days to go before the $6.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) agreed in 2019 expires on June 30. The IMF has to review whether to release some of the $2.5 billion still pending to Pakistan before then. The tranche has been stalled since November.

Dar also announced on Saturday a number of other changes, including raising a petroleum levy and lifting of all restrictions on imports, which has been one of the major concerns of the IMF as part of its fiscal tightening measures for the South Asian economy.

The budget revision came after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on the sidelines of a global financing summit in Paris last week, followed by a marathon three-days of virtual talks between the two sides.

Under the $6.5 billion EFF’s ninth review, negotiated earlier this year, Pakistan has desperately been trying to secure the IMF funds, which are crucial to unlock other bilateral and multilateral financing for the debt-ridden country.

As Fuel Taxes Plummet, States Weigh Charging by the Mile Instead of the Tank

Evan Burroughs has spent eight years touting the virtues of an Oregon pilot program charging motorists by the distance their vehicle travels rather than the gas it guzzles, yet his own mother still hasn’t bought in.

Margaret Burroughs, 85, said she has no intention of inserting a tracking device on her Nissan Murano to record the miles she drives to get groceries or attend needlepoint meetings. She figures it’s far less hassle to just pay at the pump, as Americans have done for more than a century.

“It’s probably a good thing, but on top of everybody else’s stress today, it’s just one more thing,” she said of Oregon’s first-in-the-nation initiative, which is run by the state transportation department where her son serves as a survey analyst.

Burroughs’ reluctance exemplifies the myriad hurdles U.S. states face as they experiment with road usage charging programs aimed at one day replacing motor fuel taxes, which are generating less each year, in part due to fuel efficiency and the rise of electric cars.

The federal government is about to pilot its own such program, funded by $125 million from the infrastructure measure President Biden signed in November 2021.

So far, only three states — Oregon, Utah and Virginia — are generating revenue from road usage charges, despite the looming threat of an ever-widening gap between states’ gas tax proceeds and their transportation budgets. Hawaii will soon become the fourth. Without action, the gap could reach $67 billion by 2050 due to fuel efficiency alone, Boston-based CDM Smith estimates.

Many states have implemented stopgap measures, such as imposing additional taxes or registration fees on electric vehicles and, more recently, adding per-kilowatt-hour taxes to electricity accessed at public charging stations.

Last year, Colorado began adding a 27-cent tax to home deliveries from Amazon and other online retailers to help fund transportation projects. Some states also are testing electronic tolling systems.

But road usage charges — also known as mileage-based user fees, distance-based fees or vehicle-miles-traveled taxes — are attracting the bulk of the academic attention, research dollars and legislative activity.

Doug Shinkle, transportation program director at the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures, predicts that after some 20 years of anticipation, more than a decade of pilot projects and years of voluntary participation, states will soon need to make the programs mandatory.

“The impetus at this point is less about collecting revenue than about establishing these systems, working out the kinks, getting the public comfortable with it, expanding awareness around it,” he said.

Electric car sales in the U.S. rose from just 0.1% of total car sales in 2011 to 4.6% in 2021, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. S&P Global Mobility forecasts they will make up 40% of the sales by 2030, while other projections are even rosier.

Patricia Hendren, executive director of the Eastern Transportation Coalition, said figuring out how to account for multistate trips is particularly important in the eastern U.S., where states are smaller and closer together than those in the West. Virginia’s program, launched in 2022, is already the largest in the nation and will provide valuable lessons, she said. 

Hendren’s organization, a 17-state partnership that researches transportation safety and technology innovations, participated in one of the earliest pilot projects and eight others since. The biggest hurdle, she said, is to inform the public about the diminishing returns from the gas tax that has long paid for roads.

“This is about the relationship between the people who are using our roads and bridges and how we’re paying for it,” Hendren said. “We’ve been doing it one way for 100 years, and that way is not going to work anymore.”

Eric Paul Dennis, a transportation analyst at the Citizens Research Council of Michigan, said the failure of states to convert years of research into even one fully functional, mandatory program by now raises questions about whether road usage charging can really work.

“There’s no program design that I have seen that I think can be implemented at scale in a way that is publicly acceptable,” he said. “That doesn’t mean that a program can’t be designed to do so, but I feel like if you can’t even conceive of the program architecture that seems like something that would work, you probably shouldn’t put too much faith in it.”

Indeed, a chicken-and-egg dispute over how to proceed in Washington state has stymied road usage charging efforts there.

Lawmakers passed a bill last month that would have begun early steps toward a program by allowing collection of motorists’ odometer readings on a voluntary basis. Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee vetoed the measure, though, arguing that Washington needs a program in place before starting to collect citizens’ personal data.

States also must grapple with the social and environmental implications of their plans for replacing the gas tax, said Asha Weinstein Agrawal, director of the National Transportation Finance Center at San Jose State University’s Mineta Transportation Institute.

The institute has conducted national surveys every year since 2010 and found growing support for mileage-based fees, special rates for low-income drivers and rates tied to how much pollution a vehicle generates, she said.

Weinstein Agrawal said public policy, and the way transportation is funded, often fails to reflect states’ growing emphasis on curbing carbon emissions as a way to deal with climate change.

“To switch over to a system that makes it cheaper to drive a gas guzzler and more expensive to drive a Prius,” she said, “seems both symbolically problematic and to be sending, in the most literal way, the wrong economic incentives to people.”

Evan Burroughs said his 85-year-old father, Hank, who drives an electric car, avoids paying significant vehicle registration fees by participating in Oregon’s program, while Burroughs himself has paid an extra dollar or two each month for his Subaru Outback.

“To me, that’s worth it to be part of the experiment,” he said, “and to know I’m paying my fair share for the roads.” 

Flood of Packages from China Prompts Congress to Look at Duty-Free Limit

Conservatives eager to counter America’s leading economic adversary have set their sights on a top trade priority for labor unions and progressives: cracking down on the deluge of duty-free packages coming in from China.

The changing political dynamic could have major ramifications for e-commerce businesses and consumers importing products from China valued at less than $800. It also could add to the growing tensions between the countries.

Under current U.S. law, most imports valued at less than $800 enter duty-free into the United States as long as they are packaged and addressed to individual buyers. It’s referred to as the de minimis rule. Efforts to lower the threshold amount or exclude certain countries altogether from duty-free treatment are set to become a major trade fight in this Congress.

“De minimis has become a proxy for all sorts of anxieties as it relates to China and other trade-related challenges,” said John Drake, a vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, who argues that the current U.S. law should be preserved.

The rule speeds the pace of commerce and lowers costs for consumers. It also allows U.S. Customs and Border Protection to focus its resources on the bigger-ticket items that generate more tariff revenue for the federal government.

The volume of products coming into the U.S. that benefit from the de minimis rule has soared in recent years. Congress raised the U.S. government’s threshold for expedited, duty-free treatment from $200 to $800 in 2016.

The volume of such imports has since risen from about 220 million packages that year to 771 million in 2021 — with China accounting for about 60%, according to the government — and 685 million last year.

“I think everybody’s got to kind of wrap their head around what kind of mistake this was,” Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative during the Trump administration, told a House panel last month. “Nobody dreamt this would ever happen. Now we have packages coming in, 2 million packages a day, almost all from China. We have no idea what’s in them. We don’t really know what the value is.”

Lighthizer urged Congress to get rid of the de minimis rule altogether, or reduce it to a much lower amount, say $50 or $100. He said foreign companies are taking advantage of the threshold and “putting people out of work in stores, they’re putting people out of work in manufacturing.”

Last year, House Democrats pushed to prohibit Chinese-made goods from benefiting from the special treatment for lower-cost goods. That move was part of a larger measure that boosted investments in semiconductor manufacturing and research.

In the rush to get a bill passed before the 2022 elections, the Biden administration and Democratic leaders jettisoned provisions without bipartisan buy-in. The trade provision was opposed by important U.S. business groups and key Republican members of Congress, so it didn’t make the final bill.

Fast forward just a few months and it’s clear the political dynamic has shifted — and quickly.

In its first set of recommendations, a new House committee focused exclusively on China called for legislation that would reduce the threshold for duty-free shipments into the U.S. with a particular focus on “foreign adversaries, including the (People’s Republic of China.)”

The Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party said that exploiting the $800 threshold may be a major avenue through which Chinese companies selling directly to American consumers can circumvent U.S. law designed to prevent the sale of goods made with forced labor. The committee also said Customs and Border Protection “could not reasonably scrutinize” goods sent under the $800 threshold for forced labor concerns because of the sheer number of products coming in.

The committee is most concerned about retailers Temu and Shein, which ship directly to consumers in the U.S. In a report released Thursday, it said the two companies alone are likely responsible for more than 30% of all de minimis shipments entering the U.S. each day, or nearly 600,000 a day last year.

The committee also has competitiveness concerns. It points out that U.S. retailers such as Gap and H&M paid $700 million and $205 million in import duties, respectively, in 2022. In contrast, virtually all of the goods sold by Temu and Shein are shipped using the de minimis exception in which the importer pays no duty.

Committees with jurisdiction over trade are also signaling a new mindset. Last year, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, Texas Rep. Kevin Brady, since retired, warned against what he called “hasty changes in reasonable de minimis limits.”

But the Republican now leading the House Ways and Means Committee, Rep. Jason Smith of Missouri, said he wants to “have a lot of conversations” about the $800 threshold.

“Basically, when you’re looking at $800 or less, that’s a free-trade agreement with anyone. And you’re looking at millions of products that come in per day. We need to look at it,” Smith said.

Meanwhile, the Senate has some bills on the issue, which were just introduced this month.

One, from Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., would prevent the expedited, tariff-free treatment of imports from certain countries, most notably China and Russia.

The other, from Sens. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., not only similarly targets China and Russia, but would affect other trade partners. It would do so by reducing the threshold for duty-free treatment to the amount that other nations use.

For example, if another country, say Belgium, which uses the European Union threshold of 150 euros, or about $165 currently, then the U.S. would reciprocate and use that same amount when determining whether goods coming in from Belgium get duty-free and expedited treatment.

Drake, of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said that cutting back the threshold not only would represent a big tax increase for many U.S. small businesses, but many would have to hire a customs broker to process their shipments.

“There’s a reason Congress raised the level back in 2016,” he said. “They knew in addition to it being a competitive advantage for the U.S. business community, they also recognized that collecting duties on these low-value shipments, you know, really wasn’t worth the trouble.”

At Paris Summit, World Bank to Unveil Debt Payment Pause for Countries Hit by Disasters 

The World Bank chief will announce a raft of measures on Thursday to aid countries hit by natural disasters, including a pause in debt repayments to the lender, as world leaders gather in Paris to give impetus to a new global finance agenda.

Some 40 leaders, including about a dozen from Africa, China’s prime minister and Brazil’s president, will be joined in the French capital by international organizations at the “Summit for a New Global Financial Pact.”

It aims to boost crisis financing for low-income countries, reform post-war financial systems and free up funds to tackle climate change by getting top-level consensus on how to progress several initiatives currently struggling in bodies like the G20, COP, IMF-World Bank and United Nations.

Leaders are set to back a push for multilateral development banks like the World Bank to put more capital at risk to boost lending, according to a draft summit statement seen by Reuters.

In a speech to be delivered on Thursday, new World Bank president Ajay Banga will outline a “toolkit”, including offering a pause in debt repayments, giving countries flexibility to redirect funds for emergency response, providing new types of insurance to help development projects and helping governments build advance-emergency systems.

While the new World Bank measures are designed to give developing nations some financial breathing space, there was no discussion of multilateral lenders offering debt writedowns — so-called haircuts.

China — the world’s largest bilateral creditor — has been pushing for lenders like the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund to absorb some of the losses.

Those institutions and many developed nations, notably the United States, are resisting, arguing that acceding to Beijing’s demand would be tantamount to a bailout for China. Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang is due to speak at the summit on Friday.

New vision

Citing the war in Ukraine, climate crisis, widening disparity and declining progress, leaders said the World Bank and other multilateral financial institutions needed a new vision.

The global financial architecture is outdated, dysfunctional and unjust, the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.

“It is clear that the international financial architecture has failed in its mission to provide a global safety net for developing countries,” he said.

French President Emmanuel Macron, hosting the summit, said it was time to act or trust would be lost.

The summit aims to create roadmaps that can be used over the next 18-24 months, ranging from debt relief to climate finance. Many of the topics on the agenda take up suggestions from a group of developing countries, led by Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, dubbed the “Bridgetown Initiative.”

The coronavirus pandemic pushed many poor countries into debt distress as they were expected to continue servicing their obligations in spite of the massive shock to their finances.

Africa’s debt woes are coupled with the dual challenge faced by some of the world’s poorest countries of tackling the impacts of climate change while adapting to the green transition.

Wealthy nations have yet to come good on climate finance that they promised as part of a past pledge to mobilize $100 billion a year, a key stumbling block at global climate talks.

Though binding decisions are not expected, officials involved in the summit’s planning said some strong commitments should be made about financing poor countries.

Nearly eighty years after the Bretton Woods Agreement created the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), leaders aim to squeeze more financing from multilateral lenders for the countries that need it most.

In particular, there should be an announcement that a $100 billion target has been met that will be made available through the International Monetary Fund for vulnerable countries, officials said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, whose country is the World Bank’s biggest shareholder, said multilateral development institutions should become more effective in the way they use their funds before thinking of injecting more money into them.

Some leaders are expected to lend their weight to long-stalled proposals for a levy on shipping industry emissions ahead of a meeting next month of the International Maritime Organization officials said.

China Cuts Interest Rates in Effort to Boost Flagging Economic Growth

Chinese commercial banks lowered interest rates on Tuesday as Beijing seeks ways to boost economic growth, which has been disappointingly slow as the country recovers from pandemic-era lockdowns and supply chain bottlenecks.

The move took place just days after the Chinese central bank announced it would cut the interest rate it charges on several different facilities it uses to supply commercial banks with cash.

The change in commercial banks’ prime rates, which are offered to borrowers with the best credit, were relatively modest. The rate on one-year loans fell to 3.55% from 3.65%, while the rate on five-year loans dropped to 4.2% from 4.3%.

Striking a balance

The change, which was the most significant adjustment to interest rates in nearly a year, was smaller than some analysts had expected. China faces continued softness in its real estate sector, high levels of indebtedness and persistently slow growth.

David Qu, an economist covering China for Bloomberg Economics, said on Bloomberg television that the small rate cut was an effort to maintain what he referred to as a “balance between stabilizing the housing market and avoiding stimulating another bubble in the housing market.”

In an analysis released last week after the Peoples Bank of China signaled that rate cuts were coming, Logan Wright and Allen Feng of the Rhodium Group wrote, “[T]he reductions in mortgage rates will not have much of an impact on property sales, but may help to reduce mortgage payment burdens for Chinese households. This is more likely designed to boost household consumption, so that households can free up and come from debt service for other purposes.”

Lower growth expected

Concerns about China’s economy have worsened in recent months, a fact that senior leaders in Beijing have begun to publicly acknowledge.

On Friday, Chinese state television reported that Premier Li Qiang told a meeting of senior Communist Party leaders that the government is exploring ways of driving growth.

“The external environment is becoming more complex and severe, and the slowdown in global trade and investment will directly affect the recovery process of our country’s economy,” Li said.

Over the weekend, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reduced its forecast for growth in China this year to 5.4% from 6%.

The Chinese economy’s growth rate is still significantly higher than that of many developed economies, including the U.S., which the International Monetary Fund expects to grow at only 1.6% in 2023. However, China’s growth rate was as high as 7.8% 10 years ago, and has been mostly slowing since, with the exception of an anomalous 8.1% rate in 2021 as it returned from the depths of the pandemic.

More stimulus expected

After reports last month that industrial output and retail sales had both come in under expectations, some experts expected that the Chinese government would engage in a careful program of targeted economic stimulus in the near future. The trouble is that some of the most obvious levers of influence may be less potent than they have been in the past.

For instance, lower interest rates are usually seen as stimulative because they encourage borrowing to fund capital investment. However, debt levels among Chinese companies are already quite high, which will serve to dampen demand for more credit.

In recent months, Chinese officials have signaled openness to foreign investment in the country as another means of increasing economic growth.

However, this comes after a period in which Beijing’s aggressive crackdown on Chinese tech firms and high-profile visits of state security officials to the Chinese offices of Western businesses have left some companies wary.

In April, security officials entered the offices of consulting firm Bain & Company and questioned employees. That visit came a month after officials entered the offices of another U.S. firm, the Mintz Group, and detained five Chinese nationals working there.

Global challenges

The change in interest rates takes place amid a number of important discussions between China and other large economies around the world.

On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing, where he met with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and then President Xi Jinping. Both sides characterized the discussions as productive, but on issues of significant economic concern to Beijing, no progress was announced.

These included the Biden administration’s continued application of broad tariffs on Chinese goods implemented by the administration of former President Donald Trump, and severe restrictions on China’s ability to buy cutting-edge semiconductors due to bans put in place by the Biden administration.

On Tuesday, Li traveled to Germany for meetings with senior officials there. Germany, which counts China as its second-largest trading partner after the European Union, saw its economy rocked after the Russian invasion of Ukraine exposed its over-reliance on Russia as a source of fossil fuels. The German government is in the midst of “de-risking” its economy by expanding the number of countries it relies on for key imports — a process that has China concerned about the future of its trade with Europe’s largest individual economy.

Biden Says Risks Posed by AI to Security, Economy Must be Addressed

The risks of artificial intelligence to national security and the economy need to be addressed, U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday, adding he would seek expert advice.

“My administration is committed to safeguarding Americans’ rights and safety while protecting privacy, to addressing bias and misinformation, to making sure AI systems are safe before they are released,” Biden said at an event in San Francisco.

Biden met a group of civil society leaders and advocates who have previously criticized the influence of major tech companies, to discuss artificial intelligence.

“I wanted to hear directly from the experts,” he said.

Several governments are considering how to mitigate the dangers of the emerging technology, which has experienced a boom in investment and consumer popularity in recent months after the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Biden’s meeting on Tuesday included Tristan Harris, executive director of the Center for Humane Technology, Algorithmic Justice League founder Joy Buolamwini, and Stanford University Professor Rob Reich.

Regulators globally have been working to draw up rules governing the use of generative AI, which can create text and images, and whose impact has been compared to that of the internet.

Biden has also recently discussed the issue of AI with other world leaders, including British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak whose government will later this year hold a first global summit on artificial intelligence safety. Biden is expected to discuss the topic with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his ongoing U.S. visit.

European Union lawmakers agreed last week to changes in draft rules on artificial intelligence proposed by the European Commission in a bid to set a global standard for a technology used on everything from automated factories to self-driving cars to chatbots.