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In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, nurses, truck drivers, grocery clerks and other essential workers were hailed as heroes.

“Now we are vilifying them … and this has long-term ramifications for our well-being,” said Manuela Tomei, International Labor Organization assistant director-general for governance, rights, and dialogue.

“The work that these persons perform is absolutely essential for families and societies to function,” she said, speaking Wednesday in Geneva. “So, the non-availability of their services would really result into a loss of well-being and the impossibility of ensuring safe lives to society at large.”

And yet a new study by the International Labor Organization (ILO) finds essential workers are undervalued, underpaid and laboring under poor working conditions, exposed to treatment that “exacerbates employee turnover and labor shortages, jeopardizing the provision of basic services.”

The U.N. agency’s report classifies key workers into eight main occupation groups covering health, food systems, retail, security, cleaning and sanitation, transport, manual, and technical and clerical occupations.

Data from 90 countries show that during the COVID-19 crisis key workers suffered higher mortality rates than non-key workers overall, with transport workers being at highest risk.

The report found 29% of key workers globally are low paid, earning on average 26% less than other employees. It reports they tend to work long, unpredictable hours under poor conditions.

Tomei said inaction in improving sub-standard conditions of work is having consequences today.

“In a number of countries, these sectors are facing some labor shortages because people are increasingly reluctant to engage in work which is not fairly valued by society and rewarded in terms of better pay and also improved working conditions.

“So, we are facing a crisis right now,” she added.

Richard Samans, director of the ILO research department, noted that a critical shortage of nurses in many countries is of particular concern.

“This affects the very life of people,” he said Wednesday. “Many people in countries are facing long delays in treatment. In the event of a shock — some sort of a major health disruption or natural disaster or otherwise — if the system is already strained, it cannot handle the major influx of demand for those nursing services.”

A new report by the World Health Organization warns the “widespread disruptions to health services” due to the COVID-19 pandemic “has resulted in a rapid acceleration in the international recruitment of health professionals,” mainly from poor to rich countries, exacerbating shortages of this vital workforce in developing countries.

The ILO reports that countries are still experiencing supply shortages three years after WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic. ILO research director Richard Samans attributes this to a scarcity of truck drivers due to lack of training and bad working conditions.

“In the event of a shock that increases the demand for certain types of products and services, if the underlying logistical infrastructure is not fit for purpose, then that affects the daily livelihood of people and, in some cases, their health and well-being,” he said.

The ILO report also says key workers fare worse than non-key workers in both wealthy and poor countries, but ILO senior economist Janine Berg said the problems are worse in low-income countries.

“There are particularly severe problems, for example, in agricultural work in low-income countries, and the entire agricultural food chain is part of the key worker definition,” she said. “There are also very severe problems in lower-income countries with respect to very low coverage in social protection.”

The report urges nations to identify gaps in decent work and develop national strategies to address the problems facing key workers through strengthened policies and investment.

Among its recommendations, the report calls on governments to reinforce occupational health and safety systems, improve pay for essential workers, guarantee safe and predictable working hours through regulation, and increase access to training so that key workers can carry out their work effectively and safely.
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They are perhaps the two most feared words for regulators of the financial industry: Bank run.

And that is what happened last week when depositors, during a single day, withdrew $42 billion from California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), leaving it with a negative cash balance of a billion dollars.

“This was the first Twitter-fueled bank run,” is how Republican Representative Patrick McHenry, chair of the House Financial Services Committee, described the tsunami of withdrawals.

Depositors and others began speculating on social media about the bank’s health after CEO Greg Becker sent a letter to shareholders on March 8, revealing a loss of $1.8 billion on the sales of U.S. treasuries [debt obligations issued by the government to raise cash] and mortgage-backed securities. Becker outlined his quest to find more than $2 billion to stabilize the bank.

The letter was the catalyst for the second-largest failure of a financial institution in U.S. history and the first such collapse since an economic recession in the country 15 years ago.

As SVB was sinking, regulators in the state of New York suddenly shut down Signature Bank, known as friendly to the unstable cryptocurrency industry, after panic withdrawals there totaling $10 billion brought it to the brink of insolvency.

Some of Signature Bank’s biggest customers were the top crypto exchanges, which individually had hundreds of millions of dollars in deposits.

The bank runs threatened to expand, with individuals across the country whose deposits were more typically in the thousands of dollars and not millions of dollars wondering if their money was safe. Regional banks were especially vulnerable as their stock prices plummeted.

“If the damage had spread across our financial system, the deposits and savings of tens of millions of families and small businesses could have been at serious risk,” Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on the Senate floor Tuesday.

The government corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) stepped in with unprecedented action.

Most bank customers know the FDIC from its logo displayed at branches with the written assurance: “Each depositor insured to at least $250,000.” Such a limit is likely to cover the potential losses of most individual depositors in America, but Silicon Valley Bank’s well-heeled customers were high-tech startups and entrepreneurs with far larger deposits.

The FDIC decided that the customers of SVB and Signature would be made whole, no matter how much money they had in either of those banks. This restored consumer confidence, and there have been no additional runs on American banks. But the decision was perceived by some as a bailout for the wealthy.

“No losses will be borne by the taxpayers,” President Joe Biden said on Monday.

That is technically correct, as the FDIC is cashing out depositors from a pool of money that all insured banks are required to pay into. But “it is most definitely a bailout,” said Thomas Hoenig, distinguished senior fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center and a former vice chairman of the FDIC.

“This is where the market discipline breaks down,” Hoenig said.

On its website, the FDIC touts its track record: “No depositor has ever lost a penny of insured deposits since the FDIC was created in 1933.”

The FDIC was formed as an independent agency during the Great Depression after a wave of bank runs led to the failure of thousands of financial institutions in the early 1930s, wiping out the savings of many Americans at a time of high unemployment.

“The FDIC was considered pretty radical at the time,” Hoenig told VOA. He noted that even President Franklin D. Roosevelt initially was uneasy about setting up a deposit insurance fund because of concern “about the moral hazard issue that people would not pay attention to what a bank was doing.”

A sister organization, the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation, was set up to protect depositors at non-commercial banks. The FSLIC and its parent agency, the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, eventually went bankrupt and were dissolved in 1989. The FDIC now is available to ensure those smaller thrift institutions, while the government-backed National Credit Union Administration, a successor to the Bureau of Federal Credit Unions, was established in 1970 to exclusively protect those depositors.

An FDIC bankruptcy “is always a possibility,” according to Hoenig. But the FDIC effectively has a line of credit from the U.S. Treasury it could access if there were to be massive bank failures and it ran out of money.

Right now, Hoenig noted, the FDIC has $100 billion in its fund. But that is against about $20 trillion in banking deposits. Hoenig cautions, “You really don’t want to be bailing out everyone every time, or you might as well just make these institutions public utilities.”
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According to recent studies, working four days a week instead of five can improve people’s overall wellness. The challenge, however, is whether businesses can maintain the same level of productivity in shorter periods of time. VOA’s Veronica Balderas Iglesias spoke with those who have experimented with the formula.
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Facebook-parent Meta Platforms said on Tuesday it would cut 10,000 jobs, just four months after it let go 11,000 employees, the first Big Tech company to announce a second round of mass layoffs. 

“We expect to reduce our team size by around 10,000 people and to close around 5,000 additional open roles that we haven’t yet hired,” Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg said in a message to staff.  

The layoffs are part of a wider restructuring at Meta that will see the company flatten its organizational structure, cancel lower priority projects and reduce its hiring rates as part of the move. The news sent Meta’s shares up 2% in premarket trading. 

The move underscores Zuckerberg’s push to turn 2023 into the “Year of Efficiency” with promised cost cuts of $5 billion in expenses to between $89 billion and $95 billion. 

A deteriorating economy has brought about a series of mass job cuts across corporate America: from Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to Big Tech firms including Amazon.com  and Microsoft.  

The tech industry has laid off more than 280,000 workers since the start of 2022, with about 40% of them coming this year, according to layoffs tracking site layoffs.fyi.  

Meta, which is pouring billions of dollars to build the futuristic metaverse, has struggled with a post-pandemic slump in advertising spending from companies facing high inflation and rising interest rates.  

Meta’s move in November to slash headcount by 13% marked the first mass layoffs in its 18-year history. Its headcount stood at 86,482 at 2022-end, up 20% from a year ago. 
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Illegal fishing, a multibillion-dollar industry closely linked to organized crime, is set to pose a greater threat to global security as climate change warms the world’s oceans, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute, a research organization based in London, in partnership with The Pew Charitable Trust.

Illegal, unreported and unregulated, or IUU, fishing is worth up to $36.4 billion annually, according to the report, representing up to a third of the total global catch.

Fish stocks

As climate change warms the world’s oceans, fish stocks are moving to cooler, deeper waters, and criminal operations are expected to follow.

“IUU actors and fishers in general will be chasing those fish stocks as they move. And there’s predictions, or obviously concern, that they will move in across existing maritime boundaries and IUU actors will pursue them across those boundaries,” report co-author Lauren Young told VOA.

RUSI said that global consumption of seafood has risen at more than twice the rate of population growth since the 1960s. At the same time, an increasing proportion of global fish stocks have been fished beyond biologically sustainable limits.

The report also highlights that fish play a key role in capturing carbon through feeding, so a decline in fish stocks itself could accelerate warming temperatures.

Crime nexus

“Climate change will impact in other ways, with impacts on coastal erosion as well, and that will have impacts on local small-scale fisheries. As their livelihoods become more vulnerable, they may begin engaging more in IUU practices like disruptive fishing practices or engaging in other type of criminal activity as well.”

“There is a nexus with other crime types as well, like narcotics, human trafficking and labor abuses,” Young added.

Many poorer countries do not have the capacity to police their waters. In parts of Africa and South America, foreign trawlers — including many vessels from China — have devastated fish stocks. Beijing denies its fleets conduct illegal fishing.

The United States Coast Guard said in 2021 that IUU fishing had replaced piracy as the leading global maritime security threat. “If IUU fishing continues unchecked, we can expect deterioration of fragile coastal states and increased tension among foreign-fishing nations, threatening geo-political stability around the world,” the document warned.

US response

The United States launched a sustainable fishing initiative in Peru and Ecuador in October. Project “Por la Pesca” is aimed at helping artisanal fishing in the face of depleted stocks caused by IUU fishing.

“It’s having a profound impact on stocks of fish, on the livelihoods of fisherpeople, on sustainability,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on a visit to Peru in October. “We have many countries around the world where fishing is at the heart of their economy and the heart of their culture as well, where illegal, unreported, unregulated fishing is a real and growing challenge.”

South China Sea

RUSI highlights the warming South China Sea as a flashpoint. Already, fishing grounds and maritime boundaries are hotly contested, with frequent armed confrontations.

“Many relate to China’s commitment to the nine-dash line, which is the country’s self-declared sort of maritime boundary,” said RUSI’s Young. “And they enforce that through armed fishing militia. So that obviously plays into it a lot as well. But those existing tensions there are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. And that is in line with predictions of climate change being this kind of threat multiplier.”

Enforcement

Earlier this month, United Nations member states agreed to the High Seas Treaty, aimed at protecting biodiversity by establishing vast marine protected areas.

“Whilst it’s a positive move with climate change that we’re looking to protect more of the world’s oceans, we need to improve our ability to actually monitor and enforce [the agreements] as well,” Young said.

The report authors call on governments and multinational bodies to tackle illegal fishing based on climate change predictions; enhanced vessel monitoring capabilities and tougher enforcement, with greater recognition on the role the industry plays in wider criminal networks.
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Stock markets in Asia fell Tuesday, with shares of banks hit particularly hard, following a decline in U.S. markets amid the fallout from the collapse of two U.S. banks. 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index closed down 2.2% with shares of Softbank falling 4.1%, Mizuho Financial Group dropping 7.1% and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group sinking 9.8%.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed down 2.4% Tuesday. 

U.S President Joe Biden Monday sought to reassure Americans that the U.S. banking system is secure and that taxpayers would not bail out investors at California-based Silicon Valley Bank and the New York-based Signature Bank.    

“Americans can have confidence the banking system is safe. Your deposits are safe,” Biden said in a five-minute statement delivered at the White House.     

He said customers’ deposits will be covered by funds banks routinely pay into a U.S. government-held account for such emergencies.      

Biden vowed, “We must get a full accounting of what happened” at the two banks.     

Despite the assurances, U.S. banks lost about $90 billion in stock market value on Monday as investors feared additional bank failures. The biggest losses came from midsize banks, of the size of Silicon Valley Bank.     

While shares of the country’s biggest banks — such as JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America — also fell Monday, the selloff was not as sharp. The huge banks have been strictly regulated since the 2008 financial crisis and have been repeatedly stress tested by regulators.    

Biden ignored reporters’ questions Monday about the cause of the U.S. bank failures, but financial experts say both banks were affected by a rise in interest rates, which negatively affected the market values of significant portions of their assets, such as bonds and mortgage-backed securities.       

Banks don’t lose money if they hold such notes until maturity. But if they must sell them to cover depositor withdrawals, as was the case in recent days, the losses can quickly mount.       

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. reported that industrywide, U.S. banks at the end of last year reported $620 billion in such paper losses caused by rising interest rates.     

The U.S. Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, announced Monday that it would review its oversight of Silicon Valley Bank in the wake of the bank’s failure.    

“We need to have humility and conduct a careful and thorough review of how we supervised and regulated this firm, and what we should learn from this experience,” said Fed vice chair for supervision Michael Barr.      

The FDIC, which insures deposits up to $250,000 and supervises financial institutions, said Monday it transferred all Silicon Valley Bank deposits to a so-called “bridge bank.” The new bank is run by a board appointed by the agency until it can stabilize operations.          

The Bank of England also announced Monday the sale of Silicon Valley Bank’s United Kingdom subsidiary to HSBC to stabilize the bank, “ensuring the continuity of banking services, minimizing disruption to the U.K. technology sector and supporting confidence in the financial system.”      

The actions were prompted by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, which U.S. regulators seized on Friday after concerns about the bank’s financial health led to a large number of depositors withdrawing their money at the same time.          

With about $200 billion in assets, Silicon Valley Bank’s failure was the second largest in U.S. history. The bank was heavily involved in financing for venture capital firms, especially in the tech sector.            

Signature Bank also had a large portion of clients in the tech sector, including cryptocurrency.  Its failure, with more than $100 billion in assets, was the third largest in U.S. history, behind Washington Mutual and Silicon Valley Bank.           

Some information for this story came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters. 
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Lebanon’s currency fell to a new low Tuesday, with parallel market rates hitting 100,000 Lebanese pounds to the dollar.

While the official rate is set at 15,000 Lebanese pounds to the dollar, private money exchangers said the black-market rate used in most transactions in the country had reached 100,000 pounds to a dollar.

The currency has been sinking since an economic crisis erupted in Lebanon in 2019, one that the World Bank has called one of the world’s worst since the mid-19th century.

The currency plummet, coupled with withdrawal limits at banks, have led to protests and lawsuits from depositors who say they cannot access their money.

Banks on Tuesday resumed a strike they began in early February to protest judiciary actions against them, including a court order for one of the country’s largest banks to pay some of its depositors’ savings in cash.

Some information for this story came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.

 
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U.S. President Joe Biden assured Americans on Monday that the U.S. banking system is secure and that taxpayers would not bail out investors at two banks that collapsed.

“Americans can have confidence the banking system is safe. Your deposits are safe,” Biden said in a five-minute statement delivered at the White House as businesses opened for the work week.

He said that all customers at the California-based Silicon Valley Bank and the New York-based Signature Bank would have immediate access to their deposits as federal financial officials take control of their operations.

“No losses will be borne by taxpayers,” Biden declared. “Managers of these banks will be fired. Investors in these banks will not be protected.”

He said customers’ deposits will be covered by funds banks routinely pay into a U.S. government-held account for such emergencies.

But he vowed, “We must get a full accounting of what happened” at the two banks.

He ignored reporters’ questions about the cause of the failures, but financial experts say both banks were affected by a rise in interest rates, which negatively affected the market values of significant portions of their assets, such as bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

Banks don’t lose money if they hold such notes until maturity. But if they must sell them to cover depositor withdrawals, as was the case in recent days, the losses can quickly mount.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. reported that industrywide, U.S. banks at the end of last year reported $620 billion in such paper losses caused by rising interest rates.

In a statement late Sunday, Biden said, “I am firmly committed to holding those responsible for this mess fully accountable and to continuing our efforts to strengthen oversight and regulation of larger banks so that we are not in this position again.”

The statement followed a meeting of officials from top financial regulators, and said the Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, was also giving other banks access to an emergency lending program to provide additional stability to the wider banking system.

The FDIC, which insures deposits up to $250,000 and supervises financial institutions, said Monday it transferred all Silicon Valley Bank deposits to a so-called “bridge bank.” The new bank is run by a board appointed by the agency until it can stabilize operations.

The Bank of England also announced Monday the sale of Silicon Valley Bank’s United Kingdom subsidiary to HSBC to stabilize the bank, “ensuring the continuity of banking services, minimizing disruption to the U.K. technology sector and supporting confidence in the financial system.”

A Bank of England statement said all depositor money was safe and that Silicon Valley Bank U.K. would continue operating as normal.

The actions were prompted by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, which U.S. regulators seized on Friday after concerns about the bank’s financial health led to a large number of depositors withdrawing their money at the same time.

With about $200 billion in assets, Silicon Valley Bank’s failure was the second largest in U.S. history. The bank was heavily involved in financing for venture capital firms, especially in the tech sector.

Signature Bank also had a large portion of clients in the tech sector, including cryptocurrency. Its failure, with more than $100 billion in assets, was the third largest in U.S. history, behind Washington Mutual and Silicon Valley Bank.

Some information for this story came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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U.S. Federal Reserve officials meet next week again chasing persistent inflation but now balancing that against the first acute tremors from the aggressive interest rate hikes the central bank approved over the past year.

The sudden failure of Silicon Valley Bank last week isn’t expected to prevent the Fed from continuing to raise interest rates at its March 21-22 meeting, with inflation still running far above the Fed’s 2% target and Fed chair Jerome Powell indicating monetary policy might need to become even more aggressive.

But it could add a dose of caution to the policy debate and undermine the sense, common among officials so far, that Fed policy had not caused anything to “break” in an economy where spending and job growth have seemed immune to the impact of higher interest rates. 

SVB’s failure, which the Fed came to a view as a potentially systemic shock if bank depositors faced losses, prompted the Fed to announce a new bank lending facility on Sunday in an effort to maintain confidence in the system – effectively putting the Fed back in the business of emergency lending even as it tries to tighten credit overall with higher interest rates.

Given the stakes that bit of dissonance seemed unavoidable, and may be accompanied by a slightly softer approach to monetary policy if risks are seen to be intensifying.

“The threat of a systemic disruption in the banking system is small, but the risk of stoking financial instability may well encourage the Fed to opt for a smaller rate increase at the upcoming meeting,” Oxford Economics economist Bob Schwartz wrote on Friday after SVB was closed by regulators and as officials began examining how to respond to the largest bank failure since the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis.

The upcoming Fed session was already providing a reality check of sorts, as policymakers tried to understand why the rapid rate hikes of the last year have not had more impact on the pace of price increases.

The inflation rate in January actually rose, while an Atlanta Fed real-time projection as of March 8 showed gross domestic product expanding at a 2.6% annual rate, well above the economy’s roughly 2% underlying potential.

Officials were poised to push the expected path of interest rates higher yet again as a result, the third time in their two-year battle against inflation that U.S. policymakers will have shifted on the fly after price increases proved to be faster, broader and more persistent than seen in their forecasts.

A February jobs report released Friday showed the unemployment rate rising to 3.6%. More importantly for the Fed, monthly wage growth slowed even as the economy continued to add jobs, an outcome that leaves open whether the Fed will approve a quarter or a half point rate increase at its next meeting. By late Sunday after the day’s emergency actions, the probability of a half-point hike had diminished to below one-in-five. 

Higher end point?

New inflation data to be released Tuesday and retail sales data on Wednesday both have the potential to push policymakers in either direction at the two-day meeting, which concludes March 22 with a new Federal Open Market Committee statement and projections issued at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), and a press conference by Powell at 2:30 p.m.

While investors at this point see lower odds of a return to larger rate hikes, there is still the question of just how much higher the Fed will go overall. Powell in his remarks to Congress last week signaled the new “dot plot” of projections for the rate path beyond March would likely be higher than previously expected in order to slow inflation to the central bank’s 2% target from levels more than double that.

As of December the high point for the target federal funds rate was expected by most officials to be 5.1%. In their final public comments before the beginning of a pre-meeting blackout period, Fed officials other than Powell also said they were primed for a more aggressive response if upcoming data show them losing more ground on inflation.

“The ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” Powell said in congressional testimony that reset expectations for where the Fed was heading, and pushing yields on U.S. Treasury bonds higher and prompting a sell-off in equity markets.

At a Feb. 1 press conference, in contrast, his focus was on a “disinflationary process” he saw taking root.

Developments since then have raised some doubt in investors minds if Fed officials will follow through with that, however, and much of the immediate heat on bond yields and rate expectations eased after Friday’s employment data, with the weekend’s developments in the banking sector to address the Silicon Valley Bank collapse also factoring into the reversal. 

Still nimble?

Government reports released after Powell’s last press conference showed the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation had risen slightly to a 5.4% annual rate.

Revisions to prior months also erased some of the progress policymakers had relied on when they decided to step down to quarter point rate hikes at their last session. A New York Fed study last week suggested moreover that current inflation was being driven more by persistent factors and less by cyclical or sectoral influences that might be quicker to dissipate.

It is not the first time the Fed has been caught out by after-the-fact data updates. In the fall of 2021 the first release of monthly jobs reports seemed to show the job market weakening, taking some of the urgency out of discussions about when to start tightening monetary policy. By the end of the year revisions showed hundreds of thousands more jobs had been added than originally estimated.

“If you are trying to be nimble, this is the risk. And Powell is trying to be nimble,” said former Fed economist John Roberts. 
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U.S. President Joe Biden is due to speak Monday about the banking system after the government acted to try to contain a potential crisis from the failure of two major banks. 

“The American people and American businesses can have confidence that their bank deposits will be there when they need them,” Biden said in a statement late Sunday. “I am firmly committed to holding those responsible for this mess fully accountable and to continuing our efforts to strengthen oversight and regulation of larger banks so that we are not in this position again.” 

The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement Sunday that depositors at the California-based Silicon Valley Bank and the New York-based Signature Bank will have access to all of their money on Monday. 

The regulators also said no losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank will be borne by the taxpayer. 

The statement followed a meeting of officials from top financial regulators, and said the Federal Reserve was also giving other banks access to an emergency lending program to provide additional stability to the wider banking system. 

The actions were prompted by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, which regulators seized on Friday after concerns about the bank’s financial health led to a large number of depositors withdrawing their money at the same time. 

With about $200 billion in assets, Silicon Valley Bank’s failure was the second-largest in U.S. history.  The bank was heavily involved in financing for venture capital firms, especially in the tech sector. 

Signature Bank also had a large portion of clients in the tech sector, including cryptocurrency. Its failure, with more than $100 billion in assets, was the third-largest in the country’s history. 

Both banks were affected by a rise in interest rates, which negatively affected the market values of significant portions of their assets such as bonds and mortgage-backed securities. 

Some information for this story came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters. 
…

The U.S. government took extraordinary steps Sunday to stop a potential banking crisis after the historic failure of Silicon Valley Bank, assuring depositors at the failed financial institution that they would be able to access all of their money quickly.

The announcement came amid fears that the factors that caused the Santa Clara, California-based bank to fail could spread, and only hours before trading began in Asia. Regulators had worked all weekend to try and come up with a buyer for the bank, which was the second largest bank failure in history. Those efforts appeared to have failed as of Sunday.

In a sign of quickly the financial bleeding was occurring, regulators announced that New York-based Signature Bank had failed and was being seized on Sunday. At more than $110 billion in assets, Signature Bank is the third-largest bank failure in U.S. history.

The Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and FDIC said Sunday that all Silicon Valley Bank clients will be protected and have access to their funds and announced steps designed to protect the bank’s customers and prevent more bank runs.

“This step will ensure that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles of protecting deposits and providing access to credit to households and businesses in a manner that promotes strong and sustainable economic growth,” the agencies said in a joint statement.

Regulators had to rush to close Silicon Valley Bank, a financial institution with more than $200 billion in assets, on Friday when it experienced a traditional run on the bank where depositors rushed to withdraw their funds all at once. It is the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history, behind only the 2008 failure of Washington Mutual.

Some prominent Silicon Valley executives feared that if Washington didn’t rescue the failed bank, customers would make runs on other financial institutions in the coming days. Stock prices plunged over the last few days at other banks that cater to technology companies, including First Republic Bank and PacWest Bank.

Among the bank’s customers are a range of companies from California’s wine industry, where many wineries rely on Silicon Valley Bank for loans, and technology startups devoted to combating climate change.

Sunrun, which sells and leases solar energy systems, had less than $80 million of cash deposits with Silicon Valley Bank as of Friday and expects to have more information on expected recovery in the coming week, the company said in a statement.

Stitchfix, the popular clothing retail website, disclosed in a recent quarterly report that it had a credit line of up to $100 million with Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders.

Silicon Valley Bank began its slide into insolvency when its customers, largely technology companies that needed cash as they struggled to get financing, started withdrawing their deposits. The bank had to sell bonds at a loss to cover the withdrawals, leading to the largest failure of a U.S. financial institution since the height of the financial crisis.

Yellen described rising interest rates, which have been increased by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation, as the core problem for Silicon Valley Bank. Many of its assets, such as bonds or mortgage-backed securities, lost market value as rates climbed.

Sheila Bair, who was chairwoman of the FDIC chair during the 2008 financial crisis, recalled that with almost all the bank failures during that time, “we sold a failed bank to a healthy bank. And usually, the healthy acquirer would also cover the uninsured because they wanted the franchise value of those large depositors so optimally, that’s the best outcome.”

But with Silicon Valley Bank, she told NBC’s “Meet the Press,” “this was a liquidity failure, it was a bank run, so they didn’t have time to prepare to market the bank. So they’re having to do that now and playing catch-up.”
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India’s state minister for technology said on Sunday he will meet startups this week to assess the impact on them of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, as concerns rise about the fallout for the Indian startup sector. 

California banking regulators shut down Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on Friday after a run on the lender, which had $209 billion in assets at the end of 2022, with depositors pulling out as much as $42 billion on a single day, rendering it insolvent. 

“Startups are an important part of the new India economy. I will meet with Indian Startups this week to understand impact on them and how the government can help during the crisis,” Rajeev Chandrasekhar, the state minister for IT, said on Twitter. 

India has one of the world’s biggest startup markets, with many clocking multibillion-dollar valuations in recent years and getting the backing of foreign investors, who have made bold bets on digital and other tech businesses. 

SVB’s failure, the biggest in the U.S. since the 2008 financial crisis, has roiled global markets, hit banking stocks and is now unsettling Indian entrepreneurs. 

Two partners at an Indian venture capital fund and one lender to Indian startups told Reuters that they are running checks with portfolio companies on any SVB exposure and if so, whether it is a significant part of their total bank balance. 

Consumer internet startups, which have drawn the bulk of funding in India in recent years, are less affected because they either do not have an SVB account or have minimal exposure to it, the three people said. 

“Spoke to some founders and it is very bad,” Ashish Dave, CEO of Mirae Asset Venture Investments (India), wrote in a tweet. 

“Especially for Indian founders … who setup their U.S. companies and raised their initial round, SVB is default bank. Uncertainty is killing them. Growth ones are relatively safer as they diversified. Last thing founders needed.” 

Software firm Freshworks said it has minimal exposure to the SVB situation relative to the company’s overall balance sheet. 

“As we grew, we brought on larger, diversified banks such as Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and UBS. The vast majority of our cash and marketable securities today is not held at SVB,” Freshworks said in a blog post, adding that the company does not foresee any disruption to employees or customers. 

Freshworks said it is working with customers and vendors who were using its SVB account to migrate to alternate bank accounts. 

India’s Nazara Technologies Ltd., a mobile gaming company, said in a stock exchange filing that two of its subsidiaries, Kiddopia Inc. and Mediawrkz Inc., hold cash balances totaling $7.75 million or 640 million rupees with SVB. 
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China reappointed Yi Gang as head of the central bank Sunday to reassure entrepreneurs and financial markets by showing continuity at the top while other economic officials change during a period of uncertainty in the world’s second-largest economy.

Yi, whose official title is governor of the People’s Bank of China, plays no role in making monetary policy, unlike his counterparts in other major economies. His official duties lie in “implementing monetary policy,” or carrying out decisions made by a policymaking body whose membership is a secret.

But the central bank governor acts as spokesperson for monetary policy, is the most prominent Chinese figure in global finance and oversees reassuring bankers and investors at a time when China’s economy is emerging from drastically slower growth.

At the March 5 opening of the annual session of China’s rubber-stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress, China announced plans for a consumer-led revival of the struggling economy, setting this year’s growth target at “around 5%.”

Last year’s growth fell to 3%, the second-weakest level since at least the 1970s, putting president and head of the ruling Communist Party Xi Jinping under exceptional pressure to revitalize the economy.

A longtime veteran of monetary policy departments, Yi was first appointed governor of the People’s Bank of China in March 2018, taking over from the highly regarded Zhou Xiaochuan.

Before becoming governor, Yi spent 20 years at the central bank after getting his Ph.D. from the University of Illinois and working as a professor of economics at Indiana University from 1986 to 1994.

He is also a co-founder and professor at Peking University’s China Center for Economic Research.

The party made a similar decision to opt for continuity in 2013, when then-PBOC governor Zhou, who already had been in the job for a decade, stayed on as governor while all other economic regulators changed.

Yi’s reappointment came on the congress’s penultimate day, which also saw Xi loyalists appointed as finance minister and head of the Cabinet planning agency to carry out a program to tighten control over entrepreneurs, reduce debt risks and promote the state-led technology development. Incumbent Wang Wentao was reappointed minister of commerce.

The congress also named four vice premiers, individuals who may be in line for higher office. They include sixth-ranking member of the party’s all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee, Ding Xuexiang, as vice premier overseeing administrative matters. Veteran bureaucrats He Lifeng, Zhang Guoqing and Liu Guozhong were also named to the post. Liu and Zhang were incumbents.

Foreign Minister Qin Gang was also appointed to the position of state councilor, a position also held by Wang Yi, his predecessor and current superior as director of the party’s Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission.

Defense Minister Li Shangfu, an aerospace engineer by training, was also named one of the five state councilors, along with Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong and Secretary General of China’s Cabinet, known as the State Council, Wu Zhenglong. Shen Yiqin was the only woman named to the position and is China’s highest-ranking female politician.

No women sit on the 24-member Politburo or its standing Committee, and the party’s more-than-200-member Central Committee is 95% male.

A priority for finance officials will be to manage corporate and household debt that Beijing worries has risen to dangerous levels. Tighter debt controls triggered a slump in China’s vast real estate industry in 2021, adding to the COVID-19 pandemic’s downward pressure on the economy.

At the same time, the ruling party is trying to shift money into technology development and other strategic plans. That has prompted warnings that too much political control over emerging industries could waste money and hamper growth.

Xi has favored promoting officials who sometimes lack the experience of their predecessors and exposure to global industry and finance markets. That reflects Xi’s effort to purge the Chinese system of Western influence and promote homegrown strategies.
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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that the federal government would not bail out Silicon Valley Bank, but is working to help depositors who are concerned about their money.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation insures deposits up to $250,000, but many of the companies and wealthy people who used the bank — known for its relationships with technology startups and venture capital — had more than that amount in their account. There are fears that some workers across the country won’t receive their paychecks.

Yellen, in an interview with CBS’ “Face the Nation,” provided few details on the government’s next steps. But she emphasized that the situation was much different from the financial crisis almost 15 years ago, which led to bank bailouts to protect the industry.

“We’re not going to do that again,” she said. “But we are concerned about depositors, and we’re focused on trying to meet their needs.”

With Wall Street rattled, Yellen tried to reassure Americans that there will be no domino effect after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

“The American banking system is really safe and well capitalized,” she said. “It’s resilient.”

Silicon Valley Bank is the nation’s 16th-largest bank. It was the second biggest bank failure in U.S. history after the collapse of Washington Mutual in 2008. The bank served mostly technology workers and venture capital-backed companies, including some of the industry’s best-known brands.

Silicon Valley Bank began its slide into insolvency when its customers, largely technology companies that needed cash as they struggled to get financing, started withdrawing their deposits. The bank had to sell bonds at a loss to cover the withdrawals, leading to the largest failure of a U.S. financial institution since the height of the financial crisis.

Yellen described rising interest rates, which have been increased by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation, as the core problem for Silicon Valley Bank. Many of its assets, such as bonds or mortgage-backed securities, lost market value as rates climbed.

“The problems with the tech sector aren’t at the heart of the problems at this bank,” she said.

Yellen said she expected regulators to consider “a wide range of available options,” including the acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank by another institution. So far, however, no buyer has stepped forward.

Tom Quaadman, executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness, said in a statement, “We urge the administration to facilitate a quick acquisition, guaranteeing all bank depositors have access to their cash.”

Regulators seized the bank’s assets on Friday. Deposits that are insured by the federal government are supposed to be available by Monday morning.

“I’ve been working all weekend with our banking regulators to design appropriate policies to address this situation,” Yellen said. “I can’t really provide further details at this time.”

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., told Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures” that he hoped the administration would announce the next steps as soon as Sunday.

“They do have the tools to handle the current situation, they do know the seriousness of this and they are working to try to come forward with some announcement before the markets open,” he said.

McCarthy also expressed hope that Silicon Valley Bank would be purchased.

“I think that would be the best outcome to move forward and cool the markets and let people understand that we can move forward in the right manner,” he said.

Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., said in an interview with ABC News’ “This Week” that he was concerned that the bank’s collapse could prompt nervous people to transfer money from other regional banks to larger institutions.

“We don’t want further consolidation,” he said.

Warner suggested there would be a “moral hazard” in reimbursing depositors in excess of the $250,000 limit and said an acquisition would be the best next step.

“I’m more optimistic this morning than I was yesterday afternoon at this time,” he said. “But, again, we will see how this plays out during the rest of the day.”

He added: “What we’ve got to focus on right now is how do we make sure there’s not contagion.”

President Joe Biden and Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calif., spoke about “efforts to address the situation” on Saturday, although the White House did not provide additional details on next steps.

Newsom said the goal was to “stabilize the situation as quickly as possible, to protect jobs, people’s livelihoods, and the entire innovation ecosystem that has served as a tent pole for our economy.”
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Oil giant Saudi Aramco reported Sunday its profits surged to $161 billion last year off higher crude prices, a record result for an energy firm crucial to the kingdom’s economy.

The firm, known formally as the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., said in its annual report that the profit represented “its highest annual profits as a listed company.” That came off the back of energy prices rising after Russia launched its war on Ukraine in February 2022, with sanctions limiting the sale of Moscow’s oil and natural gas in Western markets.

Aramco also hopes to increase its production to take advantage of market demand, raising the billions needed to pay for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plans to develop futuristic cityscapes to pivot Saudi Arabia away from oil.

However, those plans come despite growing international concerns over the burning of fossil fuels accelerating climate change.

“Given that we anticipate oil and gas will remain essential for the foreseeable future, the risks of underinvestment in our industry are real — including contributing to higher energy prices,” Saudi Aramco CEO and President Amin H. Nasser said in a statement.

Profits rose 46.5% when compared to the company’s 2021 results of $110 billion. It earned $49 billion in 2020 when the world faced the worst of the coronavirus pandemic lockdown, travel disruptions and oil prices briefly going negative.

Aramco put its crude production at around 11.5 million barrels a day in 2022 and said it hoped to reach 13 million barrels a day by 2027.

To boost that production, it plans to spend as much as $55 billion this year on capital projects.

Aramco also declared a dividend of $19.5 billion for the fourth quarter of 2022, to be paid in the first quarter of this year.

Aramco’s results, viewed as a bellwether for the global energy market, mirror the huge profits seen at those of U.K. energy giant BP,America’s Exxon Mobil, Shell and others in 2022.

Benchmark Brent crude oil now trades around $82 a barrel, though prices had reached over $120 a barrel back in June. Aramco, whose fortunes hinge on global energy prices, announced a record $42.4 billion profit in the third quarter of 2022 off the back of that price spike.

Those high prices have further strained ties between the kingdom and the United States, traditionally a security guarantor among the Gulf Arab states amid tensions with Iran. Before the midterm elections in November, the kingdom said the Biden administration sought to delay a decision by OPEC and allies including Russia to cut production that could have kept gasoline prices lower for voters — making public the typically behind-the-scenes negotiations common in the region.

President Joe Biden had warned the kingdom that “there’s going to be some consequences for what they’ve done” in terms of oil prices. However, those consequences have yet to be seen as Saudi Arabia and Iran went to China to strike a diplomatic deal Friday. U.S. gasoline prices now stand on average at $3.47 a gallon, down just about a dollar from last year.

For the kingdom, higher crude oil prices can help fuel the dreams of Prince Mohammed, including his planned $500 billion futuristic desert city project called Neom. However, they also run against the fears of activists over climate change, particularly as the United Nations’ COP28 climate talks will begin this November in the neighboring United Arab Emirates.

Saudi Arabia has pledged to have net-zero carbon emissions by 2060, like China and Russia, though its plans to reach that goal remain unclear. Aramco’s earnings report noted it started a $1.5 billion Sustainability Fund in October and plans a carbon-capture-and-storage facility as well.

Saudi Arabia’s vast oil resources, located close to the surface of its desert expanse, make it one of the world’s least expensive places to produce crude. For every $10 rise in the price of a barrel of oil, Saudi Arabia stands to make an additional $40 billion a year, according to the Institute of International Finance.

Shares in Aramco stood at $8.74 on Riyadh’s Tadawul stock exchange before it opened Sunday. That’s down from a high of $11.55 a share in the last year. However, that current price still gives Aramco a valuation of $1.9 trillion — making it the world’s second most valuable company behind only Apple.

The Saudi government still owns the vast majority of the firm’s shares. Saudi Aramco publicly listed a sliver of its worth back in late 2019.

Aramco will release a comprehensive earnings report Monday.
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It was called Silicon Valley Bank, but its collapse is causing shockwaves around the world.

From winemakers in California to startups across the Atlantic Ocean, companies are scrambling to figure out how to manage their finances after their bank suddenly shut down Friday. The meltdown means distress not only for businesses but also for their workers whose paychecks could get tied up in the chaos.

California Governor Gavin Newsom said Saturday that he’s talking with the White House to help “stabilize the situation as quickly as possible, to protect jobs, people’s livelihoods, and the entire innovation ecosystem that has served as a tent pole for our economy.”

U.S. customers with less than $250,000 in the bank can count on insurance provided by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Regulators are trying to find a buyer for the bank in hopes customers with more than that can be made whole.

That includes customers such as Circle, a big player in the cryptocurrency industry. It said it has about $3.3 billion of the roughly $40 billion in reserves for its USDC coin at SVB. That caused USD Coin’s value, which tries to stay firmly at $1, to briefly plunge below 87 cents Saturday. It later rose back above 97 cents, according to CoinDesk.

Across the Atlantic, startup companies woke up Saturday to find SVB’s U.K. business will stop making payments or accepting deposits. The Bank of England said late Friday that it will put Silicon Valley Bank U.K. in its insolvency procedure, which will pay out eligible depositors up to 170,000 British pounds ($204,544) for joint accounts “as quickly as possible.”

“We know that there are a large number of startups and investors in the ecosystem who have significant exposure to SVB UK and will be very concerned,” Dom Hallas, executive director of Coadec, which represents British startups, said on Twitter. He cited “concern and panic.”

The Bank of England said SVB UK’s assets would be sold to pay creditors.

It’s not just startups feeling the pain. The bank’s collapse is having an effect on another important California industry: fine wines. It’s been an influential lender to vineyards since the 1990s.

“This is a huge disappointment,” said winemaker Jasmine Hirsch, the general manager of Hirsch Vineyards in California’s Sonoma County.

Hirsch said she expects her business will be fine. But she’s worried about the broader effects for smaller vintners looking for lines of credit to plant new vines.

“They really understand the wine business,” Hirsch said. “The disappearance of this bank, as one of the most important lenders, is absolutely going to have an effect on the wine industry, especially in an environment where interest rates have gone up.”

In Seattle, Shelf Engine CEO Stefan Kalb found himself immersed in emergency meetings devoted to figuring out how to meet payroll instead of focusing on his startup company’s business of helping grocers manage their food orders.

“It’s been a brutal day. We literally have every single penny in Silicon Valley Bank,” Kalb said Friday, pegging the deposit amount that’s now tied up at millions of dollars.

He is filing a claim for the $250,000 limit, but that won’t be enough to keep paying Shelf Engine’s 40 employees for long. That could force him into a decision about whether to begin furloughing employees until the mess is cleaned up.

“I’m just hoping the bank gets sold during the weekend,” Kalb said.

Tara Fung, co-founder and CEO of tech startup Co:Create that helps launch digital loyalty and rewards programs, said her firm uses multiple banks besides Silicon Valley Bank so was able switch over its payroll and vendor payments to another bank Friday.

Fung said her firm chose the bank as a partner because it is the “gold standard for tech firms and banking partnerships,” and she was upset that some people seemed to be gloating about its failure and unfairly tying it to doubts about cryptocurrency ventures.

San Francisco-based employee performance management company Confirm.com was among the Silicon Valley Bank depositors that rushed to pull their money out before regulators seized the bank.

Co-founder David Murray credits an email from one of Confirm’s venture capital investors, which urged the company to withdraw its funds “immediately,” citing signs of a run on the bank. Such actions accelerated the flight of cash, which led to the bank’s collapse.

“I think a lot of founders were sharing the logic that, you know, there’s no downside to pulling up the money to be safe,” Murray said. “And so, we all did that, hence the bank run.”

The U.S. government needs to act more quickly to stanch further damage, said Martín Varsavsky, an Argentinian entrepreneur who has investments across the tech industry and Silicon Valley.

One of his companies, Overture Life, which employs about 50 people, had some $1.5 million in deposits in the financially embattled bank but can rely on other holdings elsewhere to meet payroll.

But other companies have high percentages of their cash in Silicon Valley Bank, and they need access to more than the amount protected by the FDIC.

“If the government allows people to take at least half of the money they have in Silicon Valley Bank next week, I think everything will be fine,” Varsavsky said Saturday. “But if they stick to the $250,000, it will be an absolute disaster in which so many companies won’t be able to meet payroll.”
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America’s employers added a substantial 311,000 jobs in February, fewer than January’s huge gain but enough to keep pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively to fight inflation.

The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%, from a 53-year low of 3.4%, as more Americans began searching for work but not all of them found jobs.

Friday’s report from the government made clear that the nation’s job market remains fundamentally healthy, with many employers still eager to hire. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress this week that the Fed would likely ratchet up its rate hikes if signs continued to point to a robust economy and persistently high inflation. A strong job market typically leads businesses to raise pay and then pass their higher labor costs on to customers through higher prices.

February’s sizable job growth shows that so far, hiring is continuing to strengthen this year after having eased in late 2022. From October through December, the average monthly job gain was 284,000. That average has surged to 351,000 for the past three months.

Economists pointed to other data in Friday’s report that suggested that the job market, while still hot, may be better balancing employers’ need for workers and the supply of unemployed people. More people have been coming off the sidelines to seek work, a trend that makes it easier for businesses to fill the millions of jobs that remain open.

The proportion of Americans who either have a job or are looking for one has risen for three straight months to 62.5%, the highest level since COVID struck three years ago. Still, it remains below its pre-pandemic level of 63.3%.

With more potential hires to choose from, employers seem under less pressure now to dangle higher pay to attract or retain workers. Average wage growth slowed in February, rising just 0.2%, to $33.09, the smallest monthly increase in a year. Measured year over year, though, hourly pay is up 4.6%, well above the pre-pandemic trend. Even so, that’s down from average annual gains above 5% last year.

What the Fed may decide to do about interest rates when it meets later this month remains uncertain. The Fed’s decision will rest, in part, on its assessment of Friday’s jobs data and next week’s report on consumer inflation in February. Last month, the government’s report on January inflation had raised alarms by showing that consumer prices had reaccelerated on a month-to-month basis.

Ahead of the February jobs data, many economists had said they thought the Fed would announce a substantial half-point increase in its key short-term interest rate, rather than a quarter point hike as it did at its meeting in February. Friday’s more moderate hiring and wage figures, though, led some analysts to suggest that the central bank may not need to move so aggressively at this month’s meeting.

“There’s clear signs of cooling when you dig deeper into the numbers,” said Mike Skordeles, head of economics at Truist, a bank. “I think it makes the case for the Fed to say … we’ll still hike rates, but we’re not going to do” a half-point hike.

The Fed’s final determination, though, will rest heavily on Tuesday’s report on consumer prices.

“Everything now hinges on February’s CPI report,” said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics.

When the Fed tightens credit, it typically leads to higher rates on mortgages, auto loans, credit card borrowing and many business loans. Its rate hikes can cool spending and inflation, but they also raise the risk of a recession.

Even for workers who have received substantial pay raises, ongoing high inflation remains a burden. Consumer prices rose 6.4% in January compared with a year ago, driven up by the costs of food, clothing and rents, among other items.

Frustrated by wages that aren’t keeping up with inflation, Rodney Colbert, a cook at the Las Vegas convention center, joined a strike Thursday by the Culinary Workers union to demand better pay and benefits. Colbert said that his hourly pay was $4-$5 less than what cooks were paid at casinos on the Las Vegas Strip.

“I’ll average approximately 28 hours a week, and that’s not enough,” Colbert said. “Just in the past two years, my rent has gone up $400, so that’s a lot.”

Nationally, nearly all of last month’s hiring occurred in mostly lower-paid services industries, with a category that includes restaurants, bars, hotels and entertainment adding 105,000 jobs, its second straight month of strong gains. Warmer-than-usual weather likely contributed to the increase. With the weather likely allowing more building projects to continue, construction companies added 24,000 jobs.

Retailers added about 50,000 jobs last month, health care providers 63,000. Local and state governments — some of them flush with cash from stimulus programs — added 46,000 jobs.

Much of that job growth reflects continuing demand from Americans who have been increasingly venturing out to shop, eat out, travel and attend entertainment events — activities that were largely restricted during the height of COVID.

“We’ve created more jobs in two years than any administration has created in the first four years,” President Joe Biden said Friday about the employment report. “It means our economic plan is working.”

Economists note, however, that the very strength of the job market is itself contributing to the high inflation that continues to pressure millions of households.

In February, in contrast to the solid hiring in the services sector, manufacturers cut 4,000 jobs. And a sector that includes technology and communications workers shed 25,000 jobs, its third straight month of losses. It is a sign that some of the announced layoffs in the economy’s tech sector are being captured in the government’s data.

Last month, the government reported a surprising burst of hiring for January — 517,000 added jobs — though that gain was revised down slightly to 504,000 in Friday’s report. The vigorous job growth for January was the first in a series of reports to point to an accelerating economy at the start of the year. Sales at retail stores and restaurants also jumped, and inflation, according to the Fed’s preferred measure, rose from December to January at the fastest pace in seven months.

The stronger data reversed a cautiously optimistic narrative that the economy was cooling modestly — just enough, perhaps, to tame inflation without triggering a deep recession. Now, the economic outlook is hazier.
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