Статті

The imploding cryptocurrency trading firm FTX is now short billions of dollars after experiencing the crypto equivalent of a bank run.

The exchange, formerly one of the world’s largest, sought bankruptcy protection last week, and its CEO and founder resigned. Hours later, the trading firm said there had been “unauthorized access” and that funds had disappeared. Analysts say hundreds of millions of dollars may have vanished.

The unraveling of the once-giant exchange is sending shockwaves through the industry. Here’s a look at the company’s collapse so far:

Why did FTX go bankrupt?

Customers fled the exchange over fears about whether FTX had sufficient capital, and it agreed to sell itself to rival crypto exchange Binance. But the deal fell through pending Binance’s due diligence on FTX’s balance sheet.

FTX had valued its assets between $10 billion to $50 billion and listed more than 130 affiliated companies around the world, according to its bankruptcy filing.

FTX and dozens of affiliated companies — including CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, Alameda Research — filed the bankruptcy petition in Delaware on Friday.

This week’s developments marked a shocking turn of events for Bankman-Fried, who was hailed as somewhat of a savior earlier this year when he helped shore up a number of cryptocurrency companies that ran into financial trouble. He was recently estimated to be worth $23 billion and has been a prominent political donor to Democrats.

Was it hacked, too?

FTX confirmed Saturday there had been unauthorized access to its accounts, hours after the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

A debate formed on social media about whether the exchange was hacked or a company insider had stolen funds — a possibility that cryptocurrency analysts couldn’t rule out.

Exactly how much money is involved is unclear, but analytics firm Elliptic estimated Saturday that $477 million was missing from the exchange. FTX’s new CEO John Ray III said it was switching off the ability to trade or withdraw funds and taking steps to secure customers’ assets.

Is FTX under investigation?

The Royal Bahamas Police Force said Sunday it is investigating FTX, adding to the company’s woes. The police force said in a statement Sunday it was working with Bahamas securities regulators to “investigate if any criminal misconduct occurred” involving the exchange, which had moved its headquarters to the Caribbean country last year.

Is anyone else investigating?

Even before the bankruptcy filing and missing funds, the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission began examining FTX to determine whether any criminal activity or securities offenses were committed, according to a person familiar with matter who spoke to The Associated Press last week on condition of anonymity because they could not discuss details of the investigations publicly.

What are the repercussions?

Companies that backed FTX are writing down investments, and the prices of bitcoin and other digital currencies have been falling. Politicians and regulators are calling for stricter oversight of the unwieldy industry. FTX said Saturday that it was moving as many digital assets as can be identified to a new “cold wallet custodian,” which is essentially a way of storing assets offline without allowing remote control.

FTX had also entered into a number of sports-related deals, some of which are crumbling. The NBA’s Miami Heat and Miami-Dade County decided Friday to terminate their relationship with FTX and will rename the team’s arena. Earlier Friday, Mercedes said it would immediately remove FTX logos from its Formula One cars.
…

The collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX is the subject of scrutiny from government investigators in the Bahamas, who are looking at whether any “criminal misconduct occurred,” the Royal Bahamas Police said on Sunday.

FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday, one of the highest-profile crypto blowups, after traders rushed to withdraw $6 billion from the platform in just 72 hours and rival exchange Binance abandoned a proposed rescue deal.

In a statement on Sunday, the Royal Bahamas Police said: “In light of the collapse of FTX globally and the provisional liquidation of FTX Digital Markets Ltd., a team of financial investigators from the Financial Crimes Investigation Branch are working closely with the Bahamas Securities Commission to investigate if any criminal misconduct occurred.”

FTX did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

FTX’s newly appointed Chief Executive John J. Ray III, a restructuring expert who took over after the bankruptcy filing, said on Saturday that the company was working with law enforcement and regulators to mitigate the problem, and was making “every effort to secure all assets, wherever located.”

The exchange’s dramatic fall from grace has seen its 30-year-old founder Sam Bankman-Fried, known for his shorts and T-shirt attire, morph from being the poster child of crypto’s successes to the protagonist of the industry’s biggest crash. 

Bankman-Fried, who lives in the Bahamas, has also been the subject of speculation about his whereabouts and he denied rumors on Twitter that he had flown to South America. When asked by Reuters on Saturday whether he had flown to Argentina, he responded in a text message: “Nope.” He told Reuters he was in the Bahamas.

The turmoil at FTX has seen at least $1 billion of customer funds vanish from the platform, sources told Reuters on Friday. Bankman-Fried had transferred $10 billion of customer funds to his trading company, Alameda Research, the sources said.

New problems emerged on Saturday when FTX’s U.S. general counsel Ryne Miller said in a Twitter post that the firm’s digital assets were being moved into so-called cold storage “to mitigate damage upon observing unauthorized transactions.”

Cold storage refers to crypto wallets that are not connected to the internet to guard against hackers.

Blockchain analytics firm Nansen said on Saturday it saw $659 million in outflows from FTX International and FTX U.S. in the preceding 24 hours.

Crypto exchange Kraken said on Twitter on Sunday that it froze the accounts of FTX, Alameda Research and their executives in order “to protect its creditors.”

The exchange did not immediately reply to a request for comment on the holdings of those accounts.

In its bankruptcy petition, FTX Trading said it has $10 billion to $50 billion in assets, $10 billion to $50 billion in liabilities, and more than 100,000 creditors.

A document that Bankman-Fried shared with investors on Thursday and was reviewed by Reuters showed FTX had $13.86 billion in liabilities and $14.6 billion in assets. However, only $900 million of those assets were liquid, leading to the cash crunch that ended with the company filing for bankruptcy.

The collapse shocked investors and prompted fresh calls to regulate the cryptoasset sector, which has seen losses stack up this year as cryptocurrency prices collapsed.

Bitcoin BTC=BTSP fell below $16,000 for the first time since 2020 on Wednesday, after Binance abandoned its rescue deal for FTX.

On Sunday it was trading around $16,400, down by more than 75% from the all-time high of $69,000 it reached in November last year.
…

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz discussed energy and trade ties with Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh during a visit to Hanoi on Sunday, the first for a German leader in more than a decade.

Scholz’s stop in Vietnam on his way to the G20 leaders’ summit in Indonesia, highlights Vietnam’s growing role in global supply chains as many German firms consider diversifying their manufacturing operations by expanding their presence beyond China, their main hub in Asia.

At a joint news conference with Chinh, Scholz said Berlin wanted deeper trade relations with Vietnam and would support the country’s transition to a greener economy, including through the expansion of the metro system in Hanoi, Vietnam’s capital.

The Hanoi visit follows Scholz’s trip to China last week, the first by a Western leader in three years since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. He will next visit Singapore before heading to the G20 summit on Nov 15-16.

Vietnam and Singapore are the only countries in Southeast Asia that have a free trade agreement with the European Union. As a result, they are the EU’s biggest trading partners in the region.

Germany is Vietnam’s second-largest trading partner among EU states after the Netherlands, with exchanges worth $7.8 billion last year, according to law firm Dezan Shira — far less however than the United States, China, Japan and South Korea.

About 500 German firms operate in Vietnam, of which around 80 have manufacturing plants in the country, according to the German chamber of commerce in Vietnam, AHK.

Among them are engineering giant Bosch BOSH.NS, energy firm Messer, and several smaller companies involved in the global automotive supply chain.

Many more are looking to diversify some of their activities away from China where about 5,000 German companies operate, AHK head in Vietnam, Marko Walde, told Reuters.

Over 90% of German firms planning such a move look at Southeast Asia as their preferred choice, Walde said, noting that Vietnam and Thailand were favorites in the region.

 
…

Britain’s government on Sunday warned of impending tax hikes, especially for the wealthy, as it bids to repair economic havoc wrought by the short-lived tenure of former prime minister Liz Truss.

Truss’s successor Rishi Sunak, who was heading to a G20 economic summit in Indonesia, has vowed to get soaring inflation under control even if it means more pain for hard-pressed consumers and businesses.

His finance minister, Jeremy Hunt, told Sky News that the pain would fall disproportionately on the better off as he prepares to unveil an emergency budget statement on Thursday.

Hunt conceded that the UK economy was already likely in recession, “but we are a resilient country and we’ve faced much bigger challenges, frankly, in our history.

“We’re all going to be paying a bit more tax, I’m afraid,” he said, while refusing to be drawn into detail on the figures, after a tax-cutting budget by Truss caused panic on financial markets.

“We will be asking everyone for sacrifices,” the chancellor of the exchequer stressed.

“But I think in a fair society, as we are in the UK, we need to recognize that there’s only so much you can ask from people on the very lowest incomes, so that will be reflected in the decisions that I take.”

Hunt is reportedly looking at changing income tax brackets, to raise more revenue from high earners, and impose strict curbs on government spending for years to come as inflation hits double digits.

He said the surge in energy prices linked to the war in Ukraine amounted to an economic hit of $166 billion.

“It’s like the economy supporting an entire second NHS [National Health Service],” the minister said.

“This will be a plan to help bring down inflation, help control high energy prices and also get our way back to growing healthily, which is what we need so much.”
…

Thailand’s tourist economy appears to be on the rebound as millions of international arrivals flock to the Southeast Asian country following COVID-19 border restrictions and closures. The government says it is highly likely that Thailand will meet its target of 10 million visitors by the end of the year.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand, or TAT, recently announced that more than 7.3 million visitors arrived in the country from January to late October. As of October 1, Thailand dropped all remaining COVID-19 requirements, including proof of vaccination or rapid test results.

TAT Governor Yuthasak Supasorn said difficult times are past.

“Thailand is seeing its reports across the board — from ongoing tourism marketing and promoting to Amazing Thailand SHA health and safety standards put in place — paying off, with more than 7 million foreign tourists having already returned to our shores so far in 2022,” he said, referring to the Safety and Health Administration.

Tourism

Thailand’s economy relies heavily on tourism. In 2019, tourism accounted for approximately 11% of Thailand’s GDP, and around 20% of Thais were employed in the sector, according to the Bank of Thailand.

Thailand’s GDP declined by 6% in 2020 amid the pandemic-fueled global economic downturn. Since its borders reopened, GDP has risen by 2.4% year on year in the first half of 2022, government spokesman Anucha Burapachaisri said, citing a report by the National Economic and Social Development Council, The Nation newspaper reported.

Malaysia-based analyst Gary Bowerman says Thailand is once again leading the way for tourism in Southeast Asia.

“Pre-pandemic Thailand was the most visited country in Southeast Asia,” he said. “It was the first to try and reopen, and the Tourism Authority of Thailand [is] always very bullish; they always forecast quite high. They did everything they could to bring back tourism inbound. For Thailand it was all about inbound.”

Bowerman said 2022 has been an unusual year, so its expected visitor arrivals were forecast to be lower.

He described 2022 as a “very weird, compressed year.”

“Most countries in the region didn’t open for inbound or outbound until April this year, so it’s a kind of three-quarter year,” he said.

In 2019, Thailand’s inbound visitors amounted to over 39 million, the country’s highest number of arrivals to date.

Looking to 2023

Thai tourism officials are now predicting only up to 18 million visitors for 2023, with little hope that the Chinese market, which usually makes up nearly 30% of all Thailand arrivals, will pick up.

Bowerman says achieving those figures will take some time, especially amid uncertainty as to when Chinese tourists will enter the country in large numbers.

“To expect they will get 12 million Chinese tourists next year, when they only had 11 million in 2019, that’s a high figure,” Bowerman said. “I don’t think anyone expects China to open [until] at least May …. I don’t think we can take the China forecast very seriously.”

China is sticking with its “zero-COVID” policy some three years after the coronavirus was first detected in the city of Wuhan. Lockdowns in Chinese cities are still common, while economic trade has slowed, borders remain closed for international tourists and a quarantine remains in place for Chinese residents returning to the country.

Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport has seen close to 3.9 million arrivals so far this year, according to tourism officials, and queues to pass through Customs have been long in recent weeks.

For Thailand’s business owners, the hordes of arrivals are a welcome sight.

Chan Holland, owner of Bangkok’s Canary Travel Thailand, says her bookings have increased since October, with most of her customers coming from Britain and European Union countries.

“Last year [we] probably had 10% [of our usual] customers. To compare, I think it is 80% better than last year,” she told VOA. “We are really happy and grateful for all the tourists we have right now. Welcome back to Thailand.”

Charlee Keardkumsap, the director of sales and marketing at Bandara Suites in Bangkok, told VOA that business has increased in recent months.

“Our business picked up more than 50% after [the country] reopened [for tourism],” he said, explaining that 2023 saw numerous first-quarter bookings of mixed clientele, and increased numbers of Asian tourists in recent months.

Amid the upbeat outlook, Thailand has been hosting meetings of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, or APEC, all year. Next week, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, along with leaders from countries including Australia, Canada and China, will be in Bangkok for an APEC summit, its first in-person talks in four years.
…

Wall Street surged to its best day since April 2020 as markets cheered a government report that inflation cooled more than expected last month.

The S&P 500 jumped 5.5% Thursday, and the Dow rose nearly 1,200 points as traders took the data as a sign the worst of inflation may have passed.

Treasury yields fell dramatically as bond markets relaxed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps set rates for mortgages and other loans, fell to 3.85% from 4.10% late Wednesday, which is a major move for the bond market. The two-year yield, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, dropped to 4.32% from 4.58%.

Even bitcoin rose on hopes a slowdown in inflation could mean the Federal Reserve won’t have to be so aggressive about raising interest rates. Such hikes have been the main reason for Wall Street’s troubles this year and are threatening a recession.

All the action stemmed from a U.S. government report showing that inflation slowed in October for a fourth straight month since hitting a peak of 9.1% in June. The reading of 7.7% was better than the 8% economists were expecting.

Perhaps more importantly, inflation also slowed more than expected after ignoring the effects of food and energy prices. That’s the measure the Fed pays closer attention to. So did inflation between September and October.

“The month-on-month rate of inflation is much more informative,” said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments. “On that measure, inflation is still high, but not scary high.”

Slower inflation could keep the Fed off the most aggressive path in raising interest rates. It’s already raised its key rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, up from virtually zero in March.

By raising rates, the Fed is intentionally trying to slow the economy and jobs market in hopes of undercutting inflation, which hit a four-decade high in the summer. The risk is that it can create a recession if it goes too far, and higher rates drag on prices for stocks and other investments in the meantime.

Higher interest rates have particularly hit high-growth tech stocks, cryptocurrencies and other investments seen as the riskiest or most expensive.

Big Tech stocks were some of the most buoyant forces on Wall Street following the inflation report. Apple and Microsoft both rose 6.8%, while Amazon soared 11.7%.

Tesla also rose nearly 6%, though it remains down by roughly half since CEO Elon Musk announced in April that he was Twitter’s largest shareholder. Investors fled the electric vehicle maker on fears Musk would be distracted by Twitter, and he has sold more than $19 billion in Tesla stock since then.

Slower inflation could get the Federal Reserve to downshift the size of its rate hikes at its next policy meeting in December, after it pushed through four straight increases of 0.75 percentage points. That could open the way for the Fed to return to the more typical increases of 0.25 percentage points before pausing hikes completely.

While Thursday’s report on inflation was encouraging, analysts cautioned the Fed’s campaign against high inflation is likely still far from over. Inflation data has given false hope before, only to reaccelerate again.

“The Fed was adamant that it won’t hit the brakes on rate hikes until inflation slows, and while the market’s rally indicates investors may see light at the end of the tunnel, it will get one more reading before its decision next month,” said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office. “Remember that even as we see a slowdown, prices remain elevated and have a long way to go before normalizing.”

Another potentially market-shaking report will hit Wall Street Friday, when the latest reading arrives on how much inflation U.S. households see coming in future years. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he’s paying particularly close attention to such expectations. 
…

Consumer price increases are beginning to ease in the U.S., not rapidly, but at a slower pace than the four-decade-high inflation boost in June.

The government’s Labor Department said Thursday that consumer prices increased at a 7.7% pace in October from the year before, down from the 8.2% annualized rate in September. On a monthly basis, prices increased four-tenths of a percentage point between September and October, matching the previous month.

The latest Consumer Price Index figure is still troubling for many U.S. shoppers facing higher prices at grocery and retail stores, as well for businesses needing supplies and raw materials for their operations. But it is lower than June’s 9.1% inflation rate that was the highest since the 1980s.

Nonetheless, inflation increases seem to have plateaued at an abnormally high level since spring 2022, with one month’s increase adding to earlier price hikes.

Policy makers at the nation’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, have rapidly increased their benchmark interest rate this year, which influences consumer borrowing rates, in hopes it will curb consumer spending. But to date the effect of the interest boosts has been minimal.

Further interest rate increases could be in the offing in the coming weeks, but some analysts fear that could push the U.S. economy, the world’s largest, into a recession.

Nearly a third of voters answering exit polls after they cast ballots in Tuesday’s nationwide congressional elections said inflation was their top concern, an issue that topped all others in the campaigns, including worries over abortion rights, crime and immigration.

Republican candidates throughout the country widely blamed Democratic President Joe Biden and his party’s candidates for the price hikes. While the cost of shopping no doubt played a role in the election, control of Congress remained in limbo Thursday, with Republicans edging toward a majority in the House of Representatives, but Senate control in doubt with undecided contests in three states.

In a statement, President Biden said the new inflation report “shows that we are making progress on bringing inflation down, without giving up all of the progress we have made on economic growth and job creation.”

But he acknowledged, “It will take time to get inflation back to normal levels—and we could see setbacks along the way—but we will keep at it and help families with the cost of living.”
…

China may be reviving key elements of its 20th-century planned economy to ensure domestic stability as a way to reduce dependence on the West for consumer commodities, particularly foodstuffs affected by the war in Ukraine, experts say.

Beijing is promoting the development of supply and marketing cooperatives for agricultural products and state-run canteens to help the government control the supply of key foodstuffs as relations between China and Western democracies deteriorate. The canteens are similar to college cafeterias with limited offerings and prices deemed affordable by officials in Beijing.

Xia Ming, a professor of political science at the City University of New York, told VOA Mandarin in a phone interview on November 4, “The emergence of supply and marketing cooperatives is often the product of economic scarcity. Today, China is obviously facing a large number of economic crises. If these crises lead to economic scarcity, the country must control the situation, especially these basic supplies, for stability.”

Wen Guanzhong, an emeritus professor of economics at Trinity College, told VOA Mandarin by phone on November 4 that “In general, because (China’s president) Xi Jinping knows that he is actually taking a route that is the opposite of the route of deepening comprehensive marketization, he also knows that China’s relations with countries around the world, especially Western countries, will become increasingly tense. He hopes to reestablish the CCP’s (Chinese Communist Party’s) overall control of society including control over supply and sales.”

Xie Tian, a business professor at the University of South Carolina Aiken, said in an interview with VOA Mandarin on November 4 that, “I think the CCP’s ambition and desire to use force against Taiwan may be implemented very soon. Canteens and supply and marketing cooperatives can control social materials and food supply during war times, which is the best way for China.”

In Hubei province alone, local officials have restored and rebuilt 1,373 grassroots supply and marketing cooperatives with 452,000 members, according to a report last month in the official Hubei Daily. Officials told the news outlet that by 2025, the cooperatives will have 1.5 million members.

In 2014, there were 696 co-ops in the province, a decrease of 61% from the peak of 1,800 in 1984, according to a report in the November 2 state-affiliated Beijing Business Daily (BBD). Nationwide, the BBD reported, there are currently 31,000 supply and marketing cooperatives in China, with nearly 400,000 outlets.

At the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which closed on October 22, Liang Huiling, who led the All China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives, was promoted to membership in the CCP’s Central Committee. After the congress, the agency immediately issued a recruitment bulletin, which the experts saw as a sign that China’s future economic development will be led by a government bent on improving self-sufficiency and economic security.

Global food crisis

China is one of the world’s leading food importers. According to a 2018 report by CSIS, a Washington-based think tank, China’s food imports exceed its exports, resulting in a food trade deficit.

Xia said China is looking for alternative grain sources because of tense relations with Western exporters such as the United States, Canada and Australia. Beijing’s fear is that if these exporting countries reduce sales to China for geopolitical reasons or to meet their own domestic demands, prices could rise throughout China and cause domestic dissatisfaction.

According to Reuters, the IMF said in September that disruptions to global grain flows caused by the war in Ukraine have prompted the worst food security crisis since the one following the 2007-2008 global financial meltdown.

Xia said China’s refusal to publicly condemn Russia for invading Ukraine in February has exacerbated Western democracies’ dissatisfaction with China.

“When China wants to team up with Russia and fight against the West, I think it will set itself up for a lot of crises of food and energy security,” he told VOA Mandarin. “So, if it wants to be hostile to Western countries or use wolf warrior diplomacy, I think it has to deal with (the consequences).”

Supply and marketing cooperatives for agricultural products first appeared in China in the 1950s when Beijing planned and controlled the economy. When Deng Xiaoping proposed reform and opening of the economy in 1978, the supply and marketing cooperatives began weakening, but they never disappeared.

Under President Xi Jinping’s leadership, the Chinese government has called for the reform of supply and marketing cooperatives as part of his gradual tightening of economic control.

In 2021, Beijing proposed a pilot project of “three-in-one” comprehensive cooperation in production, supply and marketing of foodstuffs that included loans to farmers and distributors. Some 49,000 state employees oversee the entire system of supply and marketing cooperatives starting at the county level, according to the official website.

According to data for the first half of 2022 from the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives, the sales of the supply and marketing cooperatives in the whole system exceeded $435 billion (2.9 trillion yuan) – a year-on-year increase of 19.1%. In 2021, sales totaled about $926.9 billion (6.26 trillion yuan), according to official figures.

Concerned consumers

Consumers are worried that Beijing’s new focus on supply and marketing cooperatives and canteens may sound a death knell for current market-oriented shops and restaurants, both contributors to growth of the private economy.

According to Chinese media reports, Chinese officials last week attempted to assuage those concerns, saying that restarting the supply and marketing cooperatives will allow them “to take advantage of their many outlets, enhance the function of the county’s circulation service network, and promote rural revitalization.”

The officials added that community pilot projects, including the construction of canteens, “are not mandatory, not everything on the file must be tried.”

Wen said that difference between the cooperatives of old and today “depends on how private enterprises are treated in the future, whether they are restricted or whether state-run supply and marketing cooperatives are given privileges such as the power of monopoly.”

Xie believes that the state-led economy lacks the vitality of the market economy, which will ultimately affect the living standards of Chinese residents.

He said, “Just like the canteens and supply and marketing cooperatives in the old days, it is impossible to have the vitality of the market economy after returning to the planned economy. … Only the most basic meals, or the most basic food and services can be provided, which will definitely affect the living standards of the Chinese people.”

Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report. 
…

Traders in the Cameroon town of Kiossi, on the border with Equatorial Guinea, say business is suffering after the land border was closed last week ahead of November 20 elections. Equatorial Guinea says it closed the border to prevent what it calls “infiltration of mercenaries who want to destabilize the elections.” Political analysts say President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who came to power in a 1979 coup and is Africa’s longest still-serving leader, is sure to win.

Several hundred citizens from Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea, most of them merchants, say they have not been able to cross the border from Kiossi, a Cameroonian border town, to Equatorial Guinea since November 3.

Dozens of heavily armed Equatorial Guinea government troops can be seen on the central African state’s side of the border.

Building material importer Dominique Essono says the troops are preventing him and many other Equatorial Guinea citizens from returning to their country to vote on November 20.

Essono said scores of businesspersons are stranded and cannot move to Cameroon from Ebebiyin, a town in Equatorial Guinea. Cameroon imports vegetable oil, wine, canned food and body lotions from Equatorial Guinea and exports building material, vegetables, tomatoes, rice and potato to Equatorial Guinea.

On October 25, Equatorial Guinea’s Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue said the border was sealed to prevent from the “infiltration” of groups that may want to destabilize Equatorial Guinea’s elections.

Obiang, 80, is Africa’s longest serving leader. The former military officer serving as the 2nd president of Equatorial Guinea took power in an August 1979 coup.

He will be facing two candidates in the November 20 elections.

Esono Ondo is running for the first time while Monsuy Asumu is running for the third time. Obiang told the Pan African TV Channel Afrique Media on Monday that he will continue to develop his country and reduce poverty in rural communities if reelected.

Obiang says it is by no error that continuity is the slogan of his election campaign. He says his exceptional program is to open Equatorial Guinea businesses to the rest of the world so that by 2035, the central African state can become an economically independent emerging economy.

Owona Wolfgang, a political analyst at the University of Yaounde’s political science research center in Cameroon, says Obiang is poised for another victory, as in the past six elections when he never got less than 90% of the vote.

Wolfgang says it will not be surprising if after the elections, the aging Obiang hands over leadership of Equatorial Guinea to his son, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue. He says Obiang’s son is Equatorial Guinea’s vice president and a very influential member of the Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea, the country’s ruling party.

The opposition says Obiang’s rule is marked by persecution and torture of political opponents, corruption and sham elections, charges Obiang’s party denies.

The ruling party holds 99 of the 100 seats in the outgoing National Assembly and all 55 seats in the Senate.

Equatorial Guinea’s presidential poll was initially scheduled for April 2023. President Obiang brought it forward to November 20 to coincide with legislative, senate, and local elections.

Equatorial Guinea has an annual oil revenue of more than $3 billion, but most of its 1.5 million people live in poverty according to the United Nations.
…

Meta Platforms Inc. is planning to begin large-scale layoffs this week that will affect thousands of employees, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter, with an announcement planned as early as Wednesday.

Meta declined to comment on the WSJ report.

Facebook parent Meta in October forecasted a weak holiday quarter and significantly more costs next year wiping about $67 billion off Meta’s stock market value, adding to the more than half a trillion dollars in value already lost this year.

The disappointing outlook comes as Meta is contending with slowing global economic growth, competition from TikTok, privacy changes from Apple, concerns about massive spending on the metaverse and the ever-present threat of regulation.

Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has said he expects the metaverse investments to take about a decade to bear fruit. In the meantime, he has had to freeze hiring, shutter projects and reorganize teams to trim costs.

“In 2023, we’re going to focus our investments on a small number of high priority growth areas. So that means some teams will grow meaningfully, but most other teams will stay flat or shrink over the next year. In aggregate, we expect to end 2023 as either roughly the same size, or even a slightly smaller organization than we are today” Zuckerberg said on the last earnings call in late October.

The social media company had in June cut plans to hire engineers by at least 30%, with Zuckerberg warning employees to brace for an economic downturn.

Meta’s shareholder Altimeter Capital Management in an open letter to Zuckerberg had previously said the company needs to streamline by cutting jobs and capital expenditure, adding that Meta has lost investor confidence as it ramped up spending and pivoted to the metaverse.

Several technology companies, including Microsoft Corp., Twitter and Snap have cut jobs and scaled back hiring in recent months as global economic growth slows due to higher interest rates, rising inflation and an energy crisis in Europe.
…

When world leaders, diplomats, campaigners and scientists descend on Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt for talks on tackling climate change, don’t expect them to part the Red Sea or other miracles that would make huge steps in curbing global warming.

Each year there are high hopes for the two-week United Nations climate gathering and, almost inevitably, disappointment when it doesn’t deliver another landmark pact like the one agreed 2015 in Paris.

But those were different days, marked by a spirit of cooperation between the world’s two biggest polluters — the United States and China — as well as a global realization that failure to reach an agreement would put humanity on a self-chosen track to oblivion.

This November the geopolitical tiles have shifted: a devastating war in Ukraine, skyrocketing energy and food prices, and growing enmity between the West on the one hand and Russia and China on the other make for difficult conditions at a gathering that requires cooperation and consensus.

“There’s a lot of high and low expectations around this Egypt COP, a lot of mix of ambition and fatalism,” said Avinash Persaud, special envoy for the Barbados prime minister.

Here’s what to look out for during the 27th Conference of the Parties, or COP27, from Nov. 6-18 and why it might still end up being a success.

Science warnings

Scientists are more concerned about global warming than three decades ago, when governments first came together to discuss the problem because the pace of warming in the past decade is 33% faster than in the 1990s.

Greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, while tangible impacts from climate change are already being felt around the world.

But there is some progress. Before Paris, the world was heading for 4.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial times.

Recent forecasts have that down to 2.6 C, thanks to measures taken or firm commitments governments have already made. That’s far above the 1.5 C limit countries agreed to seven years ago, however, and the time for keeping that target is fast running out.

Researchers say the world has already warmed by 1.2 C and capping temperatures at 1.5 C would require emissions to drop by 43% by the end of the decade, a highly ambitious goal. To get to the less ambitious 2 C goal emissions have to fall 27%.

“The 1.5 degrees is in intensive care and the machines are shaking. So, it is in high danger. But it is still possible,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. “My objective in Egypt is to make sure that we gather enough political will to make this possibility really moving forward, to make the machines work … We’re getting close to moments where tipping points might, at a certain moment, make it irreversibly impossible to achieve. Let’s avoid it at all costs.”

Energy scramble

Prices for oil, coal and natural gas have jumped since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some countries have responded by trying to tap new sources of fossil fuel.

This has raised concerns about governments backsliding on their commitments to cut emissions, including the agreement at last year’s climate talks to “phase down” the use of coal and sharply reduce the amount of methane — a powerful greenhouse gas — released into the atmosphere.

At the same time, rising fossil fuel prices have made renewable energy more competitive. Building solar and wind power plants remains more expensive for developing countries though. To help them cut their emissions quickly, rich nations are negotiating aid projects known as ‘just transition energy partnerships’, or JET-Ps, with several major emerging economies including Indonesia and India that could be finalized during or shortly after COP27.

Climate finance

One of the big sticking points in past negotiations concerned the financial support poor countries receive from rich nations to cope with climate change.

A deadline to provide $100 billion annually by 2020 was missed and now looks set to be achieved only next year. Future funding needs are likely to be in the trillions, not billions, said Mohamed Nasr, Egypt’s lead negotiator.

“The gap on finance is huge,” he said, noting that half the population of Africa doesn’t yet have access to electricity, much less clean energy.

Developed countries including the United States have also yet to make good on a pledge to double the amount they provide for adaptation, and make that half of the overall funding.

Discussions on climate finance also include the highly contentious issue of countries being compensated for the irreparable harm they’ve suffered as a result of global warming. Big polluters have strongly opposed demands for ‘loss and damage’ payments in the past, but observers say they’ve seen a softening of positions recently, including by the United States.

“I think that people are not expecting miracles in terms of a huge fund just miraculously appearing, but they are expecting a credible, meaningful pathway,” said Inger Andersen, head of the U.N. Environment Programme.

This would give countries that have done very little to cause the climate crisis but are on the front line of dealing with it “something to hold on to,” she said.

Activist voices

Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg is not coming to this year’s gathering and recently called the U.N. process a “scam.”

Other activists have also voiced frustration at the slow pace of negotiations, given the scale of the threat posed by climate change. But Harjeet Singh of Climate Action Network International said there is no other space where all countries are equal.

“Tuvalu theoretically is as powerful as the U.S. and Malawi as powerful as the European Union,” he said of the talks. “For us as civil society it’s also a place to call out these countries, to call their bluff, to put a spotlight on those polluters and raise our voices.”

University of Maryland social scientist Dana Fisher, who studies the environmental movement, said given Egypt’s authoritarian government and an escalation of in-your-face tactics by frustrated protestors, especially youth, she would not be surprised if there are clashes.

“There’s going to be a vanguard of them who are going to be willing to break the law and engage in probably what will start out as civil disobedience, peaceful civil disobedience,” Fisher said. “And they’re probably going to get beaten up. And it’s going to be very good for mobilizing sympathizers.”

Egypt has insisted that campaigners will have “full opportunity of participation, of activism, of demonstration, of voicing that opinion.”

Eye on Africa

The gathering in Egypt will be the first time since 2016 that U.N. climate talks have taken place in Africa. Experts say it is important the continent gets more attention, given how heavily it is affected by rising temperatures.

“If we look at the 50 countries that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts and who have the least resilience, these are low income countries and most of them are in Africa,” said Preety Bhandari of the World Resources Institute. “So it is fortuitous that we are having this particular COP in Africa to highlight what the vulnerable countries are asking from the climate regime.”

Campaigners say that recognizing the challenges Africa faces and prioritizing the needs of vulnerable countries is essential for a successful outcome this year.
…

In South Africa, a country where ‘braai’ all-day barbecuing is a national pastime, plant-based substitutes are making surprising inroads despite a deep cultural love of meat and hostility from the regulator.

That could be heartening for climate scientists, who say shifting diets from emissions-heavy meat and dairy towards more plant-based foods is vital to the fight against climate change.

Plant-based meat substitutes are growing by 6.5% a year and sales are expected to reach $561 million by 2023, according to Research and Markets – more than half Africa’s share of a global market forecast to hit $162 billion by 2030.

That is still pretty niche – South Africans spent $15 billion on meat products in 2018 and is now the world’s 9th biggest per capita consumer of beef.

But the popularity of veggie alternatives would have been unthinkable even a decade ago and the market is outstripping forecast growth for meat. The shift has so unnerved South Africa’s processed meat industry that in June it lobbed for – and got – a government ban on plant-based products using words like ‘nugget’, ‘sausage’ or ‘burger’ on packaging.

The agriculture department at the time said the move was aimed at preventing consumer confusion. A spokesperson did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

Food producers remain undeterred.

At meat processor Feinschmecker, staff pour powdered soy and pea protein into vats and rehydrate them to make its plant-based ‘deli slice’ – called so in anticipation of a ban on labeling it ‘ham’.

“A lot of it’s driven by flexitarianism. People who want to make a bit of an effort to eat less meat,” Alistair Hayward, Feinschmecker managing director, told Reuters.

Top food producer Tiger Brands TBSJ.J bought a stake in meat-substitute start-up Herbivoire in March, while supermarkets like Woolworths WHLJ.J have introduced their own ranges.

Clearly, ethical food choices are a luxury of the relatively well-to-do – a quarter of South Africans struggle to put any food on the table.

Consumer climate

Evidence is accumulating that curbing consumption of meat and dairy – which the latest estimates put at around a fifth of all emissions – is key to meeting U.N. climate goals.

A paper in Science in February said ending animal agriculture could stabilize greenhouse gas levels for 30 years and offset 68% of CO2 emissions this century; another in 2018 showed switching the world to a purely plant-based diet could slash food-related emissions – which are about 30% of the total – by nearly half.

Yet forgoing cheeseburgers is not something governments, many of which dole out billions of dollars to livestock farmers, are likely to propose at this month’s climate talks in Egypt.

Lowering animal consumption, then, may boil down to consumers – like Angie Raphalalani, 57. She gave up meat over climate concerns and her diabetes.

“My immediate family … were shocked,” she said, after lunching at plant-based restaurant Lexi’s Healthy Eatery in Johannesburg. “But probably they’ll follow me. I’m quite influential in their lives.”
…

International and regional business leaders from more than 100 financial institutions ended a three-day summit in Hong Kong Thursday that was widely seen as a signal that the territory is back in business after recently lifting some of the world’s toughest COVID-19 restrictions. 

Hosted by the city’s de facto central bank, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the gathering of more than 200 financial heavyweights was the largest the city has seen in almost three years.

Consistently ranked as the world’s third-leading financial center behind New York and London, Hong Kong has taken a beating from social unrest, its self-imposed COVID-19 isolation and reputational damage due to a crackdown on dissent. Now, it is hoping to make a comeback.

“We were, we are, and we will remain one of the world’s leading financial centers. And you can take that to the bank,” Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee told the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit this week.

Controversy

Some U.S. lawmakers, among them Representatives Chris Smith, a senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Blaine Luetkemeyer, and Lance Gooden, asked executives of major banks to reconsider attending the conference, saying their presence would legitimize China’s clampdown on the city.

Four top executives did not show up for the summit. Capital Group Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Timothy Armour cited health reasons. Blackstone Inc. President Jonathan Gray and Citigroup Inc. CEO Jane Fraser tested positive for COVID, and Barclays Plc. Chief Executive C.S. Venkatakrishnan canceled citing a scheduling conflict.

Most of the other participants, including the chairmen of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS Group, came, with some expressing confidence in Hong Kong.

China passed the National Security Law in 2020 in response to 2019’s widespread, often disruptive and sometimes violent protests in Hong Kong against a bill aimed at extraditing economic criminals to the mainland. Since the law’s passage, media outlets supportive of the protesters have shut down, and some of their staff, as well as protesters and others, have been arrested on charges of secession, subversion, terrorism or collusion with foreign forces.

The arrests have raised concerns the city is being controlled by Beijing, but Lee and the government have insisted that the One Country, Two Systems formula under which the former British colony is supposed to be governed since it returned to Chinese rule in 1997, is still adhered to.

Lee said in his speech that “the worst is behind us.” He said Hong Kong has restored stability and touted the city’s uniqueness: its proximity and seamless connection with the mainland “that affords Hong Kong advantages available to no other economy.”

Lee also pointed to government policies aimed at boosting Hong Kong’s competitiveness, including a plan to use fiscal reserves to steer economic development, a $3.8 billion fund to attract businesses by co-investing in them, and a plan to lure talent, including by giving visas to graduates from the world’s top 100 universities.

On the comeback trail?

Experts say it must do more or risk being eclipsed by Singapore.

They say that first, the government should drop all COVID-19 restrictions, including the current 0+3 policy, which no longer requires hotel quarantine but still expects visitors to avoid restaurants for the first three days after arriving. If they test positive, they must be quarantined for seven days.

“When I talk to key financial markets, Singapore, the U.K., the U.S., they’ve already gotten rid of all these requirements. Hong Kong is sort of an outlier,” said Sally Wong, chief executive officer of the Hong Kong Investment Funds Association.

“While we are claiming ourselves to be a super connector, connecting to China and to the rest of the world, we cannot live up to this reputation,” she said.

A survey conducted in July by her association found 35% of its responding member fund management companies have moved some or all of their regional or global posts from Hong Kong to other offices, partly due to the COVID-19 policies.

China also needs to allow Hong Kong residents to enter the mainland without having to quarantine, analysts said.

“Hong Kong cannot come back independent from China; it’s not possible. Its business comes from China,” said Andy Xie, a Shanghai-based independent economist. “The real start is when China exits ‘zero-COVID,’ then we can talk about something else.”

Although there are many cross-border setups aimed at enabling investors in mainland China to invest in overseas markets through Hong Kong, and vice versa, stringent requirements need to be eased to make these services a reality, Wong said.

“Right now, the key investments in the mainland are the stock market and property market; the choice of investments are very limited and domestically oriented. With the growth of the middle class, there’s an increasing need to conduct diversified portfolios,” Wong said. “Hong Kong is definitely a key gateway to tap this potential.”

Despite the departure of about 1.5% of Hong Kong’s population, 98.5% of its people are staying, and the city continues to see mainland Chinese people and young professionals from elsewhere moving to Hong Kong.

Watching TV news reports about the summit, Hong Kong hair stylist Fang Du said holding the conference is a good idea, but the worst might not be over for Hong Kong. The territory saw three consecutive quarters of negative growth this year, with the economy shrinking 4.5% in the third quarter. Like many residents, she’s hoping Hong Kong’s situation will improve soon.

“Everyone wants their country to do better. … I’m confident in Hong Kong’s future,” Du said.

Combining business with entertainment, the Hong Kong Sevens, a annual international rugby tournament, opened this Friday, the first time since COVID hit.

While encouraging the financial executives to enjoy the Sevens, Lee made a final push for the goal post with his message to them. 

“Opportunity and timing, right here, right now in Hong Kong,” Lee said. “This is the moment you have been waiting for. Go for it. Get in front, not behind.”
…

America’s employers kept hiring briskly in October, adding a substantial 261,000 positions, a sign that as Election Day nears, the economy remains a picture of solid job growth and painful inflation.

Friday’s government report showed that last month’s hiring remained near the robust pace it has maintained in the two-plus years since the pandemic recession ended. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from a five-decade low of 3.5%.

A strong job market is deepening the challenges the Federal Reserve faces as it raises interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s to try to bring inflation down from near a 40-hear high. Steady hiring, solid pay growth and a low unemployment rate have been good for workers. But they have also contributed to rising prices.

The October jobs figures were the last major economic report before Election Day, with voters keenly focused on the state of the economy and on their own financial lives.

Chronic inflation is hammering the budgets of many households and has shot to the top of voter concerns in the midterm congressional elections that will end Tuesday. Republican candidates across the country have attacked Democrats over inflation in their drive to regain control of Congress.

All the jobs that employers have added since the recession ended have boosted the ability of consumers to keep spending, even amid high inflation. A labor shortage in many areas of the economy also compelled businesses to pay more to attract and keep workers.

President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats have pointed to the vigorous resurgence in hiring as evidence that their policies have helped get Americans back to work faster than the nation managed to do after previous downturns. But that message has been overtaken in the midterm political campaigns by the crushing surge of inflation, which has soured many Americans on the economy under Democratic leadership in Congress and the White House.

Signs are growing that the economy has begun to flag under the weight of much higher borrowing costs engineered by the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes. Especially in industries like housing and technology, hiring has waned. Some tech companies, like the ride-hailing firm Lyft and the payment company Stripe. have announced plans to lay off workers. Amazon said Thursday it would suspend its corporate hiring.

Still, despite such high-profile announcements, the pace of layoffs across the broader economy remains unusually low. And companies in travel, restaurants, manufacturing and health care are still hiring steadily. Southwest Airlines told investors last week that it was on track to hire 10,000 employees this year, including 1,200 pilots. Laboratory Corporation of America said it plans significant hiring.

At a news conference Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the strong job market is feeding inflationary pressures as businesses continue to raise pay. In September, average wages rose more than 6% from 12 months earlier, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. That was the fastest such pace in 40 years, though it still trailed inflation.

Wages tend to follow inflation higher as workers seek to keep up with price increases. Those pay raises, in turn, can keep inflation high if companies pass on at least part of their higher labor costs to their customers in the form of higher prices.

Powell spoke after the Fed announced a fourth straight three-quarter-point increase in its benchmark rate. It was the latest in a series of unusually large hikes that have made mortgages and other consumer and business loans increasingly costly and heightened the risk of a recession.

The Fed’s policymakers did open the door to the possibility of a smaller rate hike when they next meet in December. But Powell also said that in order to tame inflation, the Fed would likely have to raise rates high enough to weaken the job market. That could mean that hiring will slow in coming months or even that many employers will cut jobs and increase the unemployment rate.

So far this year, the Fed has raised its key short-term rate six times — from near zero in early March to a range of 3.75% to 4%, the highest level in 14 years.

Housing has, so far, absorbed the worst damage from higher borrowing costs. The Fed’s rate hikes have sent average long-term mortgage rates surging to around 7%, the highest level in two decades. Home sales have cratered as a result, and once-soaring home prices have started to slow.

For now, the economy is still growing. It expanded at a 2.6% annual rate in the July-September quarter after having contracted in the first six months of the year. But much of last quarter’s growth was due to a spike in U.S. exports. By contrast, consumers — the primary driver of the economy — only modestly increased their spending beyond the rate of inflation.

With inflation still painfully high and the Fed making borrowing increasingly expensive for consumers and businesses, most economists expect a recession by early next year.
…

Nigeria’s currency, the naira, has dropped to a record low against the U.S. dollar as Nigerians scramble to buy U.S. currency ahead of a redesign of naira notes. Nigerian authorities say replacing the notes will reduce inflation, combat counterfeiting and bring more money into circulation. But security and economic experts warn the move could damage Nigeria’s economy. 

It’s been just over a week since the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced its plan to redesign the country’s highest paper denominations – the 200-, 500- and 1,000-naira notes.

Tijani Salisu, a black-market dealer of foreign currencies, said the demand for U.S. dollars has jumped since the announcement. On Thursday, the naira traded at 860 to the dollar, nearly double the official bank rate. 

“People are coming with the naira to buy dollars and keep because of this situation,” Salisu said. “And if you go to the bank to withdraw dollars, you can’t find dollars in the bank.”

The new naira notes will begin circulating in mid-December, and the old notes will cease to be legal tender by the end of January, according to the CBN.

The central bank says the move will put more money in circulation. Currently, an estimated 85% of all money in Nigeria is stashed away in homes, outside the banking system.

The CBN also says the new notes will help authorities curb fake currencies in circulation and keep criminals in check.

Experts fault the timing of the decision. Economist and head of the Center for Social Justice, Eze Onyekpere, said with the holiday season and elections set for next year, the decision could harm Nigeria’s economy.

“This intervention is very wrongly timed, and it appears to address a challenge for which it cannot provide a solution,” he said. “We’re discussing 15th December which is very close to the festive season of Christmas and new year and the height of commerce. It’s not a particularly good period where you start asking people to pay in their money. Normally this should take between three to six months; there’s no need to stampede people.”

Last Friday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned authorities to be cautious and not allow the decision to affect the confidence citizens have in the local currency and financial institutions. 

Mike Ejiofor, a former director of the Department of State Services, said the redesigning of the currency can do the country much good, even though there might be initial hurdles to cross.

“For me, I think it’s a welcome development and the timing for me is most appropriate,” he said. “Don’t also forget that some kidnappers have monies stashed in their houses. It will also help the regulatory agencies, security agencies monitor inflow and outflow of cash. If these monies are withdrawn, the tendencies of politicians to go and buy votes will not be there. It will make the naira appreciate.”

Exchanging the old tender for the new will be especially hard for Nigerians in rural areas who do not have easy access to banking services. Experts say that unless the CBN changes its timetable, more than 40% of Nigerians could lose their life savings when the old notes expire early next year.
…

The Federal Reserve, which serves as the U.S. central bank, raised its benchmark interest rate Wednesday by three-quarters of a point for a fourth straight time but hinted that it could soon reduce the size of its rate hikes.

The Fed’s move raised its key short-term rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its highest level in 15 years. It was the central bank’s sixth rate hike this year — a streak that has made mortgages and other consumer and business loans increasingly expensive and heightened the risk of a recession.

The persistence of inflated prices and higher borrowing costs has undercut the ability of Democrats to campaign on the robust health of the job market as they try to maintain control of Congress. Republican candidates have hammered Democrats on the punishing impact of inflation in the run-up to the midterm elections that will end Tuesday.

The Fed’s statement Wednesday was released after its latest policy meeting. Many economists expect Chair Jerome Powell to signal at a news conference that the Fed’s next expected rate hike in December may be only a half-point rather than three-quarters.

Typically, the Fed raises rates in quarter-point increments. But after having miscalculated in downplaying inflation last year as likely transitory, Powell has led the Fed to raise rates aggressively to try to slow borrowing and spending and ease price pressures.

Wednesday’s latest rate increase coincided with growing concerns that the Fed may tighten credit so much as to derail the economy. The government has reported that the economy grew last quarter, and employers are still hiring at a solid pace. But the housing market has cratered, and consumers are barely increasing their spending.

One reason the Fed’s policymakers might feel they can soon slow the pace of their rate hikes is that some early signs suggest that inflation could start declining in 2023. Consumer spending, squeezed by high prices and costlier loans, is barely growing. Supply chain snarls are easing, which means fewer shortages of goods and parts. Wage growth is plateauing, which, if followed by declines, would reduce inflationary pressures.

Still, the job market remains consistently strong, which could make it harder for the Fed to cool the economy and curb inflation. On Tuesday, the government reported that companies posted more job openings in September than in August. There are now 1.9 available jobs for each unemployed worker, an unusually large supply.

A ratio that high means that employers will likely continue to raise pay to attract and keep workers. Those higher labor costs are often passed on to customers in the form of higher prices, thereby fueling more inflation.
…

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is scheduled to meet with China’s Xi Jinping on Friday. Scholz heads a delegation of business executives as the first EU leader to visit China since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The visit comes less than two weeks after China’s leader Xi Jinping secured an unprecedented third term.

VOA’s Mandarin Service interviewed Joerg Wuttke, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, on October 27. Wuttke, who has spent some 30 years in China, is a respected observer of the world’s second largest economy who says that Xi Jinping clearly is picking a senior counsel of loyalists, and some have substantially less experience going into their positions than their predecessors. Wuttke says that has increased uncertainty over how they will handle their new leadership responsibilities at a challenging time for China’s economy.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

VOA Mandarin: Obviously this big moment has passed. The Party’s Congress is now behind us. What was your first impression or first reaction to the members, to the names of the new Politburo Standing Committee and the Politburo?

Joerg Wuttke: It was definitely a surprise. We have greater clarity now; it is obviously Xi Jinping calling the shots to an extent which we didn’t see before. He has aligned a group of people that are totally loyal to him. We have basically left the sphere of achievements and meritocracy. It is all about loyalty. And we have to see where this group of people are leading China.

VOA: The premiership goes to Li Qiang, who is currently the Shanghai party chief. Tell us about your impression of Li Qiang.

Wuttke: Well, I never met Li Qiang, but what actually concerns me more than an individual is the fact that since 1988 we have never seen a prime minister coming into office that did not shadow his predecessor. So, in a way, we have for the first time someone, who is running a city, becoming head of the state council, which of course is a totally different ship to maneuver. So, I guess that’s going to be very difficult. Also, the head for the economy, Mr. Xuexiang Ding, will be someone who is not acquainted with business.

VOA: Other than Li Qiang as the prime minister, there are some other important people to replace current members of Xi Jinping’s economic team. How about those people?

Wuttke: Yeah, we are in a turbulent time here. We have a real estate crisis. We have a severe impact from U.S. sanctions. We have an increase in debt burden in localities as well as the uncertainty about when are we getting out of this COVID lockdown. It would be great to have a stable and good communicative team at the economic front in order to tell the market where we’re heading. And we don’t. We are basically entering a period of uncertainty. But the uncertainty is by design. The president decided to have a group of loyalists with him in the Politburo. So, let’s see at the end of the day and whatever happens or does not happen is under the watch of President Xi.

VOA: I think on another occasion you spoke with other news media, you talked about how the Chinese Communist Party is not monolithic. There are a variety of views. Some are more liberal, more pro-market and others like Xi Jinping himself are more pro-state. After this reshuffle, the change of guard, do you think there will be more liberal voice in the next administration?

Wuttke: Well, there always will be different voices and the fifty shades of grey about where to steer the country. But it’s very clear in (Xi’s) speech (before the party congress) already. (Xi Jinping) mentioned Karl Marx 15 times. He mentioned the market three times, and it was clearly indicating that he expects international tensions. He mentioned struggle 17 times and 12 times in the context of international affairs. So, he’s preparing the country for struggle, and struggle means … uncertainty and difficult times. He’s trying to obviously rally the population behind him. And we have to see what that leads to. We have an engagement with (German) Chancellor Scholtz next week. The German chancellor coming might give an indicator if Xi Jinping wants to engage with foreign countries, with Europe in particular, as he has been off the scale for 1,000 days. (It) will be very interesting to see how this kind of vision of struggle translates into engagement with foreign leaders. Is he trying to accommodate? Is he trying to reconnect with them in positive terms? Or is that going to be all about, you know, struggle and offense in a way?

VOA: Compared to four or five months ago, are you now more pessimistic or you are about the same or more optimistic for the next, say, three or five years?

Wuttke: I think my struggle is I’m trying to be realistic in order to (see) which direction this might go. We have not entered the space where we know where we’re heading. I have been here for about 30 years. I grew up in opening up mode by Deng Xiaoping. My first Party Congress I witnessed personally was in 1982, where Deng Xiaoping was clearly trying to integrate China, opening up and so forth. But maybe at the tail end of my career in China, I have to witness China actually closing up again to some extent. So, in a way, it’s full circle which is, of course, disappointing. But at the same time, it’s their country, their choice.

VOA: Do you see decoupling down the road? How confident are you, as a member of the business community, about this new leadership particularly on the economic side?

Wuttke: Decoupling is hard to achieve because China is the globalization story, meaning that China is deeply embedded in many, many markets. But decoupling is in the cards (and) can only be achieved in small incremental steps. Luckily, because we want to remain coupled up. We want to be connected. So, in a way, we have a situation where, when you talk about struggle, when you talk about self-reliance, that is a strong indicator that China actually actively wants to decouple. That would be very sad. I think it would actually mean lower growth potential and certainly will also have a negative impact on the global economy. Is it going to end up there? I’m not sure, but certainly we will see some baby steps in that direction. Let’s hope that pragmatism and reason prevail because we have too much to lose, frankly, if we do decouple.

VOA: Are foreign businesses, like European businesses as well as American businesses, are we going to see more like a retreat? Are we going to see more people leaving China?

Wuttke: We see more people leaving China, that’s clear. We don’t see people from business leaving in the sense (of) companies leaving. We see more engagement on the top 10, for example, of European companies. That’s primarily German. That’s primarily cars, chemicals, mechanicals, machineries. Because there’s no other China, there’s no other choice. They have to be here, and they have to be there more engaged even.

But then 10 companies don’t necessarily stand for 1,800 members that European Chamber is representing. We have not seen companies moving away and I don’t expect this, but what we have noticed is that new investment, new additional activities from those companies that normally would come up in China has been rerouted to other regions. So, we see more interest into Thailand, into Southeast Asia, into India, but even closer to home, Turkey and Eastern Europe, for the simple fact that executives can fly in and out easily. They have also realized that the World Bank has predicted China to grow this year 2.8 percent and the rest of Asia 5.3 percent. These leaders follow the money and, hence, there will not be an exodus of European business from China. But we will definitely be underachiever given the potential of this economy.

VOA: In your opinion, do you think the Chinese leadership, particularly Xi Jinping himself and his other senior advisers, are aware of the situation that their economy is not in good shape and foreign businesses are leaving, or at least putting (new) investments on hold?

Wuttke: I think they must be aware of this, that they have smart ministries and consultants and advisers. But again, if you have a totally different policy approach, then actually, you know, foreign business doesn’t mean too much to you. Yes, you needed it in order to make sure that you can close the technology gap. But he had made it very clear that his focus is on state-owned enterprises. His primary goal is not necessarily growth. It is about security, stability. It’s about wealth distribution. It’s about common prosperity. In a way, they go more for stability and are willing to pay an economic price for it.

VOA: You said that it’s end of an era for China.

Wuttke: Yes. Clearly, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao’s era was the era where it was all about integrating China peacefully. It was all about getting rich first and powerful later. But now basically, as Mao unified China and Deng Xiaoping made it rich, it seems like that Xi Jinping focus is really making China powerful.

Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
…