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Workers at an Apple store in Oklahoma City voted to unionize, marking the second unionized Apple store in the U.S. in a matter of months, according to the federal labor board.

The vote on Friday signaled another win for the labor movement, which has been gaining momentum since the pandemic.

Fifty-six workers at the store, located at Oklahoma City’s Penn Square Mall, voted to be represented by The Communications Workers of America, while 32 voted against it, according to a preliminary tally by the National Labor Relations Board. The approximate number of eligible voters was 95, the board said.

The labor board said Friday that both parties have five business days to file objections to the election. If no objections are filed, the results will be certified, and the employer must begin bargaining in good faith with the union.

The union victory follows a vote to unionize an Apple store in Towson, Maryland, in June. That effort was spearheaded by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers in Maryland, which is preparing to begin formal negotiations.

In a statement emailed to The Associated Press on Saturday, Apple said, “We believe the open, direct and collaborative relationship we have with our valued team members is the best way to provide an excellent experience for our customers, and for our teams.”

Apple also cited “strong compensation and exceptional benefits,” and noted that since 2018, it has increased starting rates in the U.S. by 45% and made significant improvements in other benefits, including new educational and family support programs.

The Communications Workers of America could not be immediately reached for comment.

Worker discontent has invigorated the labor movements at several major companies in the U.S. in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which triggered tensions over sick leave policies, scheduling, and other issues.

In a surprise victory, Amazon workers at a Staten Island warehouse voted in favor of unionizing in April, though similar efforts at other warehouses so far have been unsuccessful. Voting for an Amazon facility near Albany, New York, began on Wednesday and is expected to go through Monday. Well over 200 U.S. Starbucks stores have voted to unionize over the past year, according to the NLRB.
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Saudi Arabia rejected as “not based on facts” criticism of an OPEC+ decision last week to cut its oil production target despite U.S. objections and said on Thursday that Washington’s request to delay the cut by a month would have had negative economic consequences.

The White House pushed back, saying it presented the Saudis with an analysis that showed the cuts could hurt the world economy, and alleging the Saudis pressured other OPEC members on a vote. Officials from both countries are expected to discuss the situation shortly.

The back-and-forth has added to what has been a frosty period of relations for the two countries, who have had an energy-for-security alliance for decades.

OPEC+, the producer group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus allies including Russia, last week announced a cut of 2 million barrels per day to its production target after weeks of lobbying by U.S. officials against such a move.

The move came even though fuel markets remain tight, with inventories in major economies at lower levels than when OPEC has cut output in the past.

The OPEC+ cut has raised concerns in Washington about the possibility of higher gasoline prices ahead of the November U.S. midterm elections, with the Democrats trying to retain their control of the House of Representatives and Senate.

U.S. President Joe Biden pledged earlier this week that “there will be consequences” for U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia after OPEC+’s move.

Asked on Thursday about the situation during a Los Angeles trip, Biden told reporters “We’re about to talk to them.”

The OPEC+ decision was adopted through consensus, took into account the balance of supply and demand and was aimed at curbing market volatility, the Saudi foreign ministry said in a statement on Thursday.

The Saudi foreign ministry statement referred to consultations with the United States before the October 5 OPEC+ meeting in which it was asked to delay the cuts by a month.

“The Kingdom clarified through its continuous consultations with the U.S. administration that all economic analyzes indicate that postponing the OPEC+ decision for a month, according to what has been suggested would have had negative economic consequences,” the Saudi foreign ministry statement said.

The United States accused Saudi Arabia of kowtowing to Moscow, which objects to a Western cap on the price of Russian oil in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

“We presented Saudi Arabia with analysis to show that there was no market basis to cut production targets, and that they could easily wait for the next OPEC meeting to see how things developed,” said White House spokesman Jack Kirby, in a statement, which added that other OPEC nations told the United States that they felt “coerced” to support the Saudi decision.

The Saudi foreign ministry statement, quoting an unnamed official, stressed the “purely economic context” of the oil cut. Oil demand has weakened worldwide, with OPEC, the U.S. Energy Department, and the International Energy Agency all lowering forecasts for 2023 demand this week.

However, the IEA on Thursday added that OPEC’s move could worsen demand, saying “higher oil prices may prove the tipping point for a global economy already on the brink of recession.”

The Saudi statement said the kingdom views its relationship with the United States as a “strategic one” and stressed the importance of mutual respect. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued a statement in support of Saudi Arabia’s comments praising the kingdom’s efforts to protect the market from volatility.

In research last week, Goldman Sachs said in the last 25 years OPEC has never cut production when inventories in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, composed of 38 of the world’s richest economies, were so low. OECD stocks are 8% below their five-year average. However, they noted that OPEC reduced output during periods of weak demand. 
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Inflation in the United States accelerated in September, with the cost of housing and other necessities intensifying pressure on households, wiping out pay gains that many have received and ensuring that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively.

Consumer prices rose 8.2% in September compared with a year earlier, the government said Thursday. On a month-to-month basis, prices increased 0.4% from August to September after having ticked up 0.1% from July to August.

Yet excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, so-called core inflation jumped last month — a sign that the Fed’s five rate hikes this year have so far done little to cool inflation pressures. Core inflation climbed 0.6% from August to September and 6.6% over the past 12 months. The yearly core figure is the biggest increase in 40 years. Core prices typically provide a clearer picture of underlying price trends.

Major U.S. markets swung sharply lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures moving from several hundred points up to a 400 point decline in seconds. Markets in Europe tumbled as well.

Thursday’s report represents the final U.S. inflation figures before the Nov. 8 midterm elections after a campaign season in which spiking prices have fueled public anxiety, with many Republicans casting blame on President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats.

Inflation has swollen families’ grocery bills, rents and utility costs, among other expenses, causing hardships for many and deepening pessimism about the economy despite strong job growth and historically low unemployment.

As the election nears, Americans are increasingly taking a dim view of their finances, according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Roughly 46% of people now describe their personal financial situation as poor, up from 37% in March. That sizable drop contrasts with the mostly steady readings that had lasted through the pandemic.

The September inflation numbers aren’t likely to change the Fed’s plans to keep hiking rates aggressively in an effort to wrest inflation under control. The Fed has boosted its key short-term rate by 3 percentage points since March, the fastest pace of hikes since the early 1980s. Those increases are intended to raise borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans and business loans and cool inflation by slowing the economy.

Minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting in late September showed that many policymakers have yet to see any progress in their fight against inflation. The officials projected that they would raise their benchmark rate by an additional 1.25 percentage points over their next two meetings in November and December. Doing so would put the Fed’s key rate at its highest level in 14 years.

Along with lower gas prices, economists expect the prices of used cars to reduce or at least restrain inflation in the coming months. Wholesale used car prices have dropped for most of this year, though the declines have yet to show up in consumer inflation data. (Used vehicle prices had soared in 2021 after factory shutdowns and supply chain shortages reduced production.)

Large retailers, too, have started offering early discounts for the holiday shopping season, after having amassed excess stockpiles of clothes, furniture and other goods earlier this year. Those price cuts might have lowered inflation in September or will do so in the coming months.

Walmart has said it will offer steep discounts on such items as toys, home goods, electronics and beauty. Target began offering holiday deals earlier this month.

Yet prices for services — particularly rents and housing costs — are remaining persistently high and will likely take much longer to come down. Health care services, education and even veterinary services are still rising rapidly in price.

“Services price increases tend to be more persistent than increases in the prices of goods,” Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, noted in remarks last week.

Rising rental costs are a tricky issue for the Fed. Real-time data from websites such as ApartmentList suggest that rents on new leases are starting to decline.

But the government’s measure tracks all rent payments — not just those for new leases — and most of them don’t change from month to month. Economists say it could be a year or longer before the declines in new leases feed through to government data.
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The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday downgraded its 2023 world economic outlook, citing Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, widespread inflationary pressures and higher interest rates boosting borrowing rates for both businesses and consumers.

The 190-nation lending agency said it expects a meager 2.7% global growth rate next year, down from the 2.9% it projected in July. The IMF left its 2022 prediction unchanged, a modest 3.2% figure that would be only slightly more than half of last year’s 6% growth.

Aside from the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the IMF said it is “the weakest growth profile since 2001.The worst is yet to come, and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.”

More than a third of the global economy will see two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the coming year, the IMF predicted.

The downturn in the IMF forecast was no surprise. Growth is slowing in the world’s two biggest economies, the United States and China, while key economies in Europe are also facing economic headwinds. Russia is coping with debilitating sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its Western allies for its war against Ukraine, now in its eighth month.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, speaking as the IMF and the World Bank meet in Washington, warned that the “risks of recession are rising” around the world and that the global economy is facing a “period of historic fragility.”

With economic uncertainty and rapid consumer price increases in the U.S., the IMF cut its predicted growth for the American economy to 1.6% this year, down from the July projection of 2.3%. The IMF said it is expecting only 1% U.S. growth next year.

Throughout the world, the IMF is expecting consumer prices to increase by 8.8% this year, up from 4.7% in 2021.

The IMF said it foresees 3.2% growth in China this year, down sharply from 8.1% last year. China’s business growth has been disrupted by coronavirus controls and a crackdown on excessive real estate lending. China’s economy is predicted to grow by 4.4% next year, which is still modest compared to recent Chinese advances.

The IMF said it projects economic growth of just a half percentage point in the 19-nation European bloc that uses the euro currency. Its energy prices are sharply higher as it weans itself from fuel purchases from Russia in protest of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has imposed sharp increases in its key benchmark interest rate five times this year to curb inflationary pressures, on the theory that higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers will cut their purchases and dampen the increase in consumer prices.
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Taiwan businessman Liao Chin-chang invested in factories in mainland China’s southern city of Dongguan for the last two decades, making everything from shoes to soccer balls and chemicals. Earlier this year, however, he decided it was time to go home to Taiwan.

Liao’s decision came as global tensions and their impact on trade, and the strict policies of Chinese President Xi Jinping, made doing business in China less predictable.

For Liao, the idea of leaving China gained momentum in 2021 when random and frequent power cuts started impacting factory production.

“Since last year, we’d lose power like three or four days a week,” he told VOA’s Mandarin service in an interview. “How can factories survive without power?”

He reached the limits of his patience following a two-month-long COVID-spurred lockdown in Shanghai, China’s biggest city, with a population of 26 million. The lockdown triggered a rare and loud pushback from the public that continues to this day as China sticks to what it calls a “zero-COVID policy.”

With Beijing’s strategy of dealing with COVID — on and off lockdowns around the country — China’s economy has slowed. It is only one of the reasons that a growing number of businesses have packed up or are considering leaving the world’s second-largest economy or redistributing their operations.

Other reasons include trade friction between the United States and China, increasing state control of private enterprises and Beijing’s military threats to Taiwan. China considers Taiwan a wayward province and has not ruled out an invasion.

Stay? Or go now?

A recent survey of more than 500 Taiwan companies released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that 25.7 percent of firms had already moved a part of their production or sourcing out of China, and 33.2 percent were thinking about doing so. About one-third said they were not moving.

According to the survey, a majority of those leaving China, 63.1 percent, were relocating to Southeast Asia. At 51.3 percent, Taiwan was the next most popular destination for companies relocating from mainland China.

“Taiwanese companies appear to be moving their businesses at numbers far higher than in the past,” the report found.

But they are not just moving out of China; a smaller percentage of firms are moving out of Taiwan, and some of those are heading to the mainland.

Surveys conducted by the European Chamber of Commerce and the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing and Shanghai have highlighted similar trends.

The European Chamber of Commerce quoted Denis Depoux, global managing director of management consultant company Roland Berger, as saying, “It [China] is too big and too important to scale down.” The chamber found while doing business in China has become increasingly difficult for many foreign firms, two-thirds of European companies experienced revenue increases last year.

For Liao, it all traces back to Xi, his political ambitions, and tight social and economic policies.

“How can you still seal the whole city when the economy is so crushed? Liao asked. “There are so many ships anchored in the Shanghai harbor, the shipments can’t go in or out of the city. China’s economy froze in a matter of seconds. But Xi Jinping doesn’t care. He needs stability for his enthronement.”

On October 16, China will begin a nearly week-long party congress where Xi is expected to be given an unprecedented third five-year term as party chief. Xi’s third term will mark an end to a norm that began just about the time Liao first came to China — an end to a political cycle that steadied Beijing’s relationship with the world as it opened China for business and the nation became the second-largest economy.

The long journey west

Liao moved to China in 1995, when fierce competition pushed businesspeople from Taiwan to join an army of entrepreneurs who relocated there. Liao and others were lured by the prospect of cheap labor and the special status of being from Taiwan.

“The cost of hiring one worker in Taiwan would be enough to hire 50 workers in China,” Liao said. “I had to follow the flow to China because my competitors would do so to make their prices much more appealing.”

At one point, Dongguan’s Taiwan Business Investment Association had more than 3,000 member companies, making it the largest Taiwan business association in the world.

Liao said he remembers in the early days how the Chinese government had preferential policies for Taiwan entrepreneurs and local governments even set quotas for bringing in investments from the island.

“To be honest, Taiwanese businessmen were a very special class of people. They dared not upset us,” he said.

Over the last six years, he said, he saw his product prices drop more than 70%. He said the situation worsened when the power cuts and lockdowns started. During that time, Liao was also under increasing scrutiny from authorities when he discussed the issues on social media apps in China.

In the last few years in China, Liao said, he was invited to “have tea” with the police four times after his account on China’s WeChat social media platform was censored. To “have tea” is an indirect way for the Chinese police to question, interrogate, and sometimes threaten people they consider a danger to national security or social stability.

“They told me, we know in Taiwan you can criticize the president, but here in China it’s different, so please cooperate with us,” he said.

After returning to Taiwan, he began speaking out about his experiences on social media.

Liao observed that currently, people in China are eager to make money but nobody there feels secure.

Bo Gu in VOA’s Mandarin Service contributed to this story.
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As awareness grows around the world about the problem of food waste, one culprit in particular is drawing scrutiny: “best before” labels.

Manufacturers have used the labels for decades to estimate peak freshness. Unlike “use by” labels, which are found on perishable foods like meat and dairy, “best before” labels have nothing to do with safety and may encourage consumers to throw away food that’s perfectly fine to eat.

“They read these dates and then they assume that it’s bad, they can’t eat it and they toss it, when these dates don’t actually mean that they’re not edible or they’re not still nutritious or tasty,” said Patty Apple, a manager at Food Shift, an Alameda, California, nonprofit that collects and uses expired or imperfect foods.

To tackle the problem, major U.K. chains like Waitrose, Sainsbury’s and Marks & Spencer recently removed “best before” labels from prepackaged fruit and vegetables. The European Union is expected to announce a revamp to its labeling laws by the end of this year; it’s considering abolishing “best before” labels altogether.

In the U.S., there’s no similar push to scrap “best before” labels. But there is growing momentum to standardize the language on date labels to help educate buyers about food waste, including a push from big grocers and food companies and bipartisan legislation in Congress.

“I do think that the level of support for this has grown tremendously,” said Dana Gunders, executive director of ReFED, a New York-based nonprofit that studies food waste.

The United Nations estimates that 17% of global food production is wasted each year; most of that comes from households. In the U.S., as much as 35% of food available goes uneaten, ReFED says. That adds up to a lot of wasted energy — including the water, land and labor that goes into the food production — and higher greenhouse gas emissions when unwanted food goes into landfills.

There are many reasons food gets wasted, from large portion sizes to customers’ rejection of imperfect produce. But ReFED estimates that 7% of U.S. food waste — or 4 million tons annually — is due to consumer confusion over “best before” labels.

Date labels were widely adopted by manufacturers in the 1970s to answer consumers’ concerns about product freshness. There are no federal rules governing them, and manufacturers are allowed to determine when they believe their products will taste best. Only infant formula is required to have a “use by” date in the U.S.

Since 2019, the Food and Drug Administration — which regulates around 80% of U.S. food — has recommended that manufacturers use the labels “best if used by” for freshness and “use by” for perishable goods, based on surveys showing that consumers understand those phrases.

But the effort is voluntary, and the language on labels continues to vary widely, from “sell by” to “enjoy by” to “freshest before.” A survey released in June by researchers at the University of Maryland found at least 50 different date labels used on U.S. grocery shelves and widespread confusion among customers.

“Most people believe that if it says ‘sell by,’ ‘best by’ or ‘expiration,’ you can’t eat any of them. That’s not actually accurate,” said Richard Lipsit, who owns a Grocery Outlet store in Pleasanton, California, that specializes in discounted food.

Lipsit said milk can be safely consumed up to a week after its “use by” date. Gunders said canned goods and many other packaged foods can be safely eaten for years after their “best before” date. The FDA suggests consumers look for changes in color, consistency or texture to determine if foods are all right to eat.

“Our bodies are very well equipped to recognize the signs of decay, when food is past its edible point,” Gunders said. “We’ve lost trust in those senses and we’ve replaced it with trust in these dates.”

Some U.K. grocery chains are actively encouraging customers to use their senses. Morrisons removed “use by” dates from most store-brand milk in January and replaced them with a “best before” label. Co-op, another grocery chain, did the same to its store-brand yogurts.

It’s a change some shoppers support. Ellie Spanswick, a social media marketer in Falmouth, England, buys produce, eggs and other groceries at farm stands and local shops when she can. The food has no labels, she said, but it’s easy to see that it’s fresh.

“The last thing we need to be doing is wasting more food and money because it has a label on it telling us it’s past being good for eating,” Spanswick said.

But not everyone agrees. Ana Wetrov of London, who runs a home renovation business with her husband, worries that without labels, staff might not know which items should be removed from shelves. She recently bought a pineapple and only realized after she cut into it that it was rotting in the middle.

“We have had dates on those packages for the last 20 years or so. Why fix it when it’s not broken?” Wetrov said.

Some U.S. chains — including Walmart — have shifted their store brands to standardized “best if used by” and “use by” labels. The Consumer Brands Association — which represents big food companies like General Mills and Dole — also encourages members to use those labels.

“Uniformity makes it much more simple for our companies to manufacture products and keep the prices lower,” said Katie Denis, the association’s vice president of communications.

In the absence of federal policy, states have stepped in with their own laws, frustrating food companies and grocers. Florida and Nevada, for example, require “sell by” dates on shellfish and dairy, and Arizona requires “best by” or “use by” dates on eggs, according to Emily Broad Lieb, director of the Food Law and Policy Clinic at Harvard Law School.

The confusion has led some companies, like Unilever, to support legislation currently in Congress that would standardize U.S. date labels and ensure that food could be donated to rescue organizations even after its quality date. At least 20 states currently prohibit the sale or donation of food after the date listed on the label because of liability fears, Lieb said.

Clearer labeling and donation rules could help nonprofits like Food Shift, which trains chefs using rescued food. It even makes dog treats from overripe bananas, recovered chicken fat and spent grain from a brewer, Apple said.

“We definitely need to be focusing more on doing these small actions like addressing expiration date labels, because even though it’s such a tiny part of this whole food waste issue, it can be very impactful,” Apple said.
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Electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc sold 83,135 China-made vehicles in wholesale in September, smashing its record of monthly sales in China, according to a report released Sunday by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

The number marks an 8% increase from August and outpaced the more than the 5% month-over-month growth of all wholesale electric vehicle sales in China, according to CPCA data.

It set a record for Tesla’s Shanghai factory since production began in December 2019, and topped the prior sales record of 78,906 in June, as the U.S. carmaker continues to invest in China production.

Globally, Tesla last week said it delivered 343,830 electric vehicles in the third quarter, a record for the world’s most valuable automaker, but less than the 359,162 analysts on average had expected, according to Refinitiv.

Tesla quickened its China deliveries after suspending most production at the Shanghai plant in July for an upgrade, which aimed to bring the factory’s weekly output to around 22,000 units compared with levels of around 17,000 in June, Reuters previously reported.

The plant, which manufactures Model 3s and Model Ys, reopened April 19 after a COVID lockdown, but only resumed full production in mid-June.

Production accelerated despite heatwaves and COVID curbs that hit its suppliers in the southwest region of the country.

China’s BYD continued to lead the domestic EV market with 200,973 wholesale sales in September, a nearly 15% jump from August, as CPCA said higher oil prices and government subsidies continue to encourage more consumers to choose electric vehicles.
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a decision by the OPEC+ grouping to cut oil production was “unhelpful and unwise” for the global economy, especially emerging markets, the Financial Times reported Sunday.

“We’re very worried about developing countries and the problems they face,” Yellen told the newspaper in an interview.

She also criticized allies for being slow to send financial aid to Ukraine.

“The pace of transferring money to Ukraine is far too slow,” Yellen added, pointing out that some countries that had pledged assistance had not got round to disbursing it.
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America’s employers slowed their hiring in September but still added a solid 263,000 jobs — potentially hopeful news that may mean the Federal Reserve’s drive to cool the job market and ease inflation is starting to make progress.

Friday’s government report showed that last month’s job growth was down from 315,000 in August and that the unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.5%, matching a half-century low. Last month’s job gain was the smallest since April 2021.

September’s slightly more moderate pace of hiring may be welcomed by the Fed, which is trying to restrain the economy enough to tame the worst inflation in four decades without causing a recession. Slower job growth would mean less pressure on employers to raise pay and pass those costs on to their customers through price increases — a recipe for high inflation.

Still, the Fed would need to see more sustained evidence that hiring and pay gains are slowing before it would moderate its interest rate hikes as it fights inflation. In September, hourly wages rose 5% from a year earlier — the slowest year-over-year pace since December but still hotter than the Fed would want. The proportion of Americans who either have a job or are looking for one slipped slightly, a disappointment for those hoping that more people would enter the labor force and help ease worker shortages and upward pressure on wages.

Leisure and hospitality companies, including hotels, restaurants and bars, added 83,000 jobs last month. Health care and social assistance employers gained 75,000 jobs, factories 22,000. But governments cut jobs. Retailers, transportation and warehouse companies reduced employment modestly.

The public anxiety that has arisen over high prices and the prospect of a recession is carrying political consequences as President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party struggles to maintain control of Congress in November’s midterm elections.

In its epic battle to rein in inflation, the Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate five times this year. It is aiming to slow economic growth enough to reduce annual price increases back toward its 2% target.

It has a long way to go. In August, one key measure of year-over-year inflation, the consumer price index, amounted to 8.3%. And for now, consumer spending — the primary driver of the U.S. economy — is showing resilience. In August, consumers spent a bit more than in July, a sign that the economy was holding up despite rising borrowing rates, violent swings in the stock market and inflated prices for food, rent and other essentials.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned bluntly that the inflation fight will “bring some pain,” notably in the form of layoffs and higher unemployment. Some economists remain hopeful that despite the persistent inflation pressures, the Fed will still manage to achieve a so-called soft landing: Slowing growth enough to tame inflation, without going so far as to tip the economy into recession.

It’s a notoriously difficult task. And the Fed is trying to accomplish it at a perilous time. The global economy, weakened by food shortages and surging energy prices resulting from Russia’s war against Ukraine, may be on the brink of recession. Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned Thursday that the IMF is downgrading its estimates for world economic growth by $4 trillion through 2026 and that “things are more likely to get worse before it gets better.”

Powell and his colleagues on the Fed’s policymaking committee want to see signs that the abundance of available jobs — there’s currently an average of 1.7 openings for every unemployed American — will steadily decline. Some encouraging news came this week, when the Labor Department reported that job openings fell by 1.1 million in August to 10.1 million, the fewest since June 2021.

Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab, suggested that among the items on “the soft-landing flight checklist” is “a decline in job openings without a spike in the unemployment rate, and that’s what we’ve seen the last few months.”

On the other hand, by any standard of history, openings remain extraordinarily high: In records dating to 2000, they had never topped 10 million in a month until last year.

Economist Daniel Zhao of the jobs website Glassdoor argued that a single-minded focus on the job market might be overdone. Regardless of what happens with jobs and wages, Zhao suggested, the Fed’s policymakers won’t likely let up on their rate-hike campaign until they see proof that they’re actually hitting their target.

“They want to see inflation slowing down,” he said.
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Delegates at Africa’s biggest oil conference have expressed concern about rising prices after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus nonmembers who also export oil, decided this week to cut production targets.

The majority of the oil cartel’s 13 member states are in Africa, but many African countries have to import refined oil.

Speaking at the Africa Oil Week conference in Cape Town, Omar Farouk Ibrahim, secretary-general of the African Petroleum Producers Organization, said the move was aimed at ensuring stability in the global market and ensuring that prices don’t fall too low.

“I believe it’s the right thing they did in order to save the industry,” he said, “and I totally think that every country has the responsibility to protect the interests of its citizens. And if by reducing production they see that as in their best interest, so be it.”

Rashid Ali Abdallah, executive director of the African Energy Commission, said it was too early to tell what the impact of the planned cuts would be.

“I hope that the price is not shooting up, because in Africa we depend on oil products in power generation,” he said.

Natacha Massano, vice president of Angola’s National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels, said she wasn’t sure how the announcement would affect her country. Angola is one of the two biggest oil producers in Africa; Nigeria is the other, and both are OPEC members.

“Some countries will be affected more than the others,” Massano said. “Some are benefiting — of course, the producers may benefit from the high prices, but at the same time they are paying also for all other commodities.”

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, has denied colluding with Russia on the production target cut.

However, Herman Wang, managing editor of Vienna-based OPEC and Middle East News, said one couldn’t tell what was discussed behind closed doors. He said he thought the cut was clearly “a big win for Russia.”

“You know that they are trying to raise money for their war effort in Ukraine,” Wang said. “Again, like all these OPEC countries, [Russia is] heavily reliant on oil revenues, and when you have a case where the outlook for the war is quite dire, [Russia is] needing this revenue. And the other impact of this is that higher oil prices make it harder for the West to enforce and impose their sanctions on Russia. So that might have been part of the calculation here for Russia in terms of trying to get this production cut done.”

OPEC+ members said the group would cut production targets by 2 million barrels per day.

U.S. President Joe Biden called the move shortsighted, noting the global economy has been dealing with the negative impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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U.S. President Joe Biden expressed his disappointment Thursday that OPEC+ nations intend to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels a day but said the United States has alternatives and is exploring them.

“There’s a lot of alternatives. We haven’t made up our minds yet,” Biden told reporters at the White House, without elaborating.

Wednesday’s decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with Russia and other oil producers, to cut production targets could help Moscow fund its war in Ukraine and hurt Biden’s chances to further cut gasoline prices for American motorists ahead of next month’s nationwide congressional elections.

Opposition Republicans have blamed Biden and fellow Democrats for the higher gas prices as they try to wrest control from Democrats of one or both chambers of Congress.

In a July trip to the Mideast, Biden had pushed Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-biggest oil producer after the U.S., to hold the line against a production cut or even boost output to the global crude oil market to keep oil prices, which directly correlate to the price motorists pay for gasoline at service stations, from increasing.

Biden said, however, that he did not regret his stopover in Riyadh to meet with Saudi leaders.

“The trip was about the Middle East and about Israel and … rationalization of positions,” he said, while acknowledging the OPEC+ production cut “is a disappointment.”

Biden made the trip to Saudi Arabia even though during his presidential campaign in 2020 he branded the longtime U.S. ally as a “pariah” state for its role in the killing and dismemberment of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist, at the hands of Saudi agents in the country’s Istanbul Consulate in 2018.

One of Biden’s key congressional allies, Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, voiced a more critical view of Saudi Arabia than Biden in the immediate aftermath of the oil production target cut.

“From unanswered questions about 9/11 & the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, to conspiring w/ Putin to punish the US w/higher oil prices, the royal Saudi family has never been a trustworthy ally of our nation,” Durbin said on Twitter. “It’s time for our foreign policy to imagine a world without their alliance.”

Durbin’s 9/11 reference was to the 2001 al-Qaida terrorist attacks on the U.S. that killed nearly 3,000 people. Fifteen of the 19 airline hijackers who carried out the attacks were Saudi nationals.

Three Democratic members of the House of Representatives, Tom Malinowski, Sean Casten and Susan Wild, called for an end to U.S. troop protection of Persian Gulf allies.

“If Saudi Arabia and the UAE want to help [Russian President Vladimir] Putin keep oil prices high, they should look to him for their defense,” the three lawmakers said.

Despite Biden’s diplomatic overtures in recent months to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, they said, “they have now answered … with a slap in the face that will hurt American consumers and undermine our national interests.”

The OPEC+ coalition of 23 nations said the production cut, from 43.8 million barrels a day to 41.8 million, would take effect in November. It is the first time OPEC has cut oil production targets since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020, although the coalition of oil-producing countries has been undershooting its target by 3 million barrels a day this year.

With the production cut, the oil producers are hoping to curb the drop in world crude prices, which surged past $100 a barrel earlier this year but had fallen 32% in the last four months before increasing again in recent days in anticipation of the OPEC announcement.

With the drop in the price of crude over the summer months, gasoline station pump prices fell in the U.S., which in turn boosted Biden’s job approval rating as the country heads to the nationwide congressional elections on November 8.

A year ago in the U.S., gas prices averaged $3.20 a gallon (3.78 liters), and in some states fell to nearly that low in recent months. But now, with crude oil prices rising again, the national average is at $3.87 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

While U.S. motorists are pinched by higher gas costs, Russia relies on gas and oil sales for a large portion of its budget to help fund its war in Ukraine. It supported the production cut, which will enable Moscow to sell oil for higher prices on the global market.
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Growth in global trade flows will be dramatically lower than expected in 2023, according to a report issued Wednesday by the World Trade Organization, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and global central banks’ efforts to fight inflation continue to take a toll.

The WTO projected that after expanding at a 3.5% pace in 2022, growth in the trade of goods in 2023 will plunge to just 1%. That’s considerably below the agency’s most recent estimate from April, which had trade expanding at a 3.4% clip next year.

WTO analysts cited various causes for the expected slowdown. Among other things, the increase in the price of energy, staple foods, fertilizer and other goods brought on by the war in Ukraine will continue reducing consumer spending on other items. Additionally, interest rate hikes in the United States and other advanced economies are expected to constrain consumers further, while China’s continuing struggle to manage COVID-19 has created ongoing production problems.

“Policymakers are confronted with unenviable choices as they try to find an optimal balance among tackling inflation, maintaining full employment and advancing important policy goals such as transitioning to clean energy,” WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in a statement.

‘No surprise’

Jake Colvin, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, told VOA that even without the geopolitical shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and problems with the global supply chain arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, there were other factors that made a slowdown in trade growth likely.

“It’s no surprise that while the party was raging for the global economy in the wake of COVID lockdowns, that the inflation hangover is real,” Colvin said. “There’s likely to be downward pressure on global trade for the foreseeable future, as this report points out, because of persistently high inflation, as well as ongoing supply chain challenges.”

Colvin pointed out that the recent surge in the strength of the U.S. dollar against other global currencies would also complicate trade issues.

“The world is grappling with the strength of the U.S. dollar,” he said. “Obviously, a strong U.S. dollar is good for U.S. consumers. It makes imports less expensive. But it makes U.S. exports more expensive. So, a strong U.S. dollar is always a headwind for American exporters. And it also is a challenge for countries around the world that have to buy things in dollars, including energy.”

Growth projections vary

The 2023 growth rates for North America and Asia are expected to be slightly above the global trend, at 1.4% and 1.1%. However, they will be significantly lower than in 2022. The WTO projects that North America will end this year with a 3.4% growth in trade, while Asia will experience 2.9% growth.

Regions projected to have positive but below average growth in 2023 include Europe at 0.8% and South America at 0.3%. That compares with projected full-year 2022 growth of 1.8% for Europe and 1.6% for South America.

Regions that can expect negative growth are Africa at -1.0% and the Middle East at -1.5%. However, both are expected to end 2022 with annual growth much higher than the global average, with Africa at 6.0% and the Middle East at 14.6%.

The seventh region in the assessment is the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a free trade bloc made up primarily of former satellite states of the Soviet Union and dominated by Russia. The data indicate that the CIS will see growth of 3.3% next year. However, the report said, that apparent growth will reflect only a partial recovery from the sharp -5.8% slowdown in trade growth the bloc is projected to have suffered by the end of 2022.

China’s challenges

The decline in forecast growth for Asia is driven in large part by China, which is experiencing reversals in imports and exports. This is the result of a combination of factors, but the most notable among them is COVID-19.

“The zero-COVID policy that President Xi [Jinping] has been pursuing … really put the squeeze on the Chinese economy,” Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told VOA. “Production is not there for what could be many export orders. Sometimes the ports are just not functioning as they normally do, so that really has hit the exports.”

He continued, “At the same time, China is a big importer, from [around] the world, and especially from many developing countries, which send a combination of raw materials and intermediate products to China, which are then made into finished products. … So China’s imports have been pretty slow lately, and this is hurting all its trading partners around the world.”

Spillover effects

In addition to a slowdown in orders from China, countries in the developing world are likely to see fewer orders for their goods from the U.S. and Europe than they have in the past, due in part to consumers being constrained by inflation and high interest rates.

Developing countries are facing the pernicious combination of lower revenues from exports, higher energy and fertilizer prices, and disruption in the global food supply. Added to that is the rising value of the U.S. dollar, which many developing countries need to purchase in order to transact business internationally.

A major concern, according to the WTO, is that this “could lead to food insecurity and debt distress in developing countries.”

Warning on restrictions

Okonjo-Iweala warned countries against reacting to Wednesday’s report by imposing export bans and taking other restrictive trade measures.

“While trade restrictions may be a tempting response to the supply vulnerabilities that have been exposed by the shocks of the past two years, a retrenchment of global supply chains would only deepen inflationary pressures, leading to slower economic growth and reduced living standards over time,” Okonjo-Iweala said.

“What we need is a deeper, more diversified and less concentrated base for producing goods and services,” she added. “In addition to boosting economic growth, this would contribute to supply resilience and long-term price stability by mitigating exposure to extreme weather events and other localized disruptions.”
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The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with Russia and other oil producers, on Wednesday slashed production by 2 million barrels a day, an action that could help Moscow pay for its war with Ukraine and hurt U.S. President Joe Biden’s chances to further cut gasoline prices for American motorists.

The production cut was seen as a rebuke to Biden, who visited Saudi Arabia in July in what now has turned out to be a futile effort to persuade the world’s second-biggest oil producer after the United States to refrain from cutting production.

White House officials assailed the decision in Vienna by the 23 countries that belong to the OPEC+ coalition, which analysts say could increase the risk of a global recession in the coming months. Crude oil prices had been falling for months on the world market but had risen in recent days in anticipation of the OPEC production cut.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan and National Economic Council director Brian Deese said in a statement that the president “is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

“At a time when maintaining a global supply of energy is of paramount importance,” Sullivan and Deese said, “this decision will have the most negative impact on lower- and middle-income countries that are already reeling from elevated energy prices.”

Effective in November

The OPEC+ coalition said the production cut, from 43.8 million barrels a day to 41.8 million, would take effect in November. It is the first time OPEC has cut oil production targets since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020, although the coalition has been undershooting its target by 3 million barrels a day this year.

Because of the underproduction of the oil-producing countries, White House national security spokesman John Kirby played down the new OPEC+ agreement.

“So, in some ways, this announced decrease really just kind of gets them back into more aligned with the actual production,” he said.

Even so, the oil producers are hoping to curb the drop in world crude prices, which surged past $100 a barrel earlier this year but had fallen 32% in the last four months before increasing to more $93 a barrel on Wednesday after the OPEC announcement.

With the drop in the price of crude over the summer months, gasoline station pump prices fell in the U.S., which in turn boosted Biden’s job approval rating as the country heads to nationwide congressional elections next month.

A year ago in the U.S., gas station prices averaged $3.20 a gallon (3.78 liters) and in some states fell to near that low in recent months. But now, with crude oil prices on the rise again, the national average is at $3.83 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

With Biden’s Democratic Party holding narrow control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and some pollsters predicting a Republican takeover of the House and possibly the Senate, White House officials are concerned about any increase in gasoline pump prices being blamed on Democrats, giving Republicans an electoral boost.

In addition, Russia relies on gas and oil sales for a large portion of its budget to help fund its war in Ukraine. It supported the production cut, which will enable Moscow to sell oil for higher prices on the global market.
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The World Trade Organization predicts global trade growth will slow sharply to 1 percent in 2023, down from the expected high of 3.5 percent this year. 

WTO economists say trade has played a key role in keeping the global economy running throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. While merchandise trade plunged amid lockdowns in 2020, they note it subsequently rebounded, keeping the world supplied with food, medicine and other essential goods. 

However, they say multipronged crises, including the pandemic, climate shocks and the war in Ukraine, continue to cause supply chain disruptions. Fiscal and monetary policies and inflationary pressures, they note, are causing energy and commodity prices to rise. They say low-income developing countries in particular face serious risks from insecurity and debt distress. 

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says most regions will likely register slightly positive export growth in 2023, with the exceptions of Africa and the Middle East. She expects both regions to experience negative export growth. World GDP next year is expected to slow to 2.3 percent, she says, down nearly a full percentage point from the WTO’s previous estimate. 

“Policymakers face unenviable choices as they attempt to find an optimal balance among fighting inflation, maintaining employment and advancing important policy goals such as the transition to cleaner energy,” Okonjo-Iweala said. “Trade restrictions may be a tempting response to economic distress, but these would only deepen inflationary pressures and reduce living standards.” 

Okonjo-Iweala says free trade generates growth and can help keep prices from rising. For example, keeping markets open for food trade, she says, will increase the availability of essential foodstuffs and maintain downward pressure on prices. 

“Our monitoring work on food trade has pointed to some recent backsliding on restrictions, so we need to remain vigilant,” Okonjo-Iweala said. “Looking ahead, a better response to the supply chain vulnerabilities exposed by the past two years is to build a more diversified, less concentrated base for producing goods and services.” 

Diversification will boost economic growth and contribute to supply resilience and long-term price stability, she says, adding it also can help meet current and future economic challenges. 

 
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U.N. economists warn the monetary and fiscal policies of advanced economies risk plunging the world into a recession worse than the financial crisis of 2008. UNCTAD, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has issued its annual Trade and Development Report 2022.

The authors of the report warn the world is teetering on the edge of a recession due to bad policy decisions by advanced economies, combined with cascading crises resulting from climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine.

They project this year’s global growth rate of 2.5 percent will slow to 2.2 percent in 2023. This, they say, will leave a cumulative shortfall of more than $17 trillion, close to 20 percent of the world’s income.

The report finds the slowdown is hitting countries in all regions, especially developing countries. It says growth rates in the poorer countries are expected to drop below three percent, damaging development and employment prospects.

UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan says middle-income countries in Latin America, as well as low-income countries in Africa, will register some of the sharpest slowdowns this year.

“In Africa, an additional 58 million people will fall into extreme poverty in 2022 adding to the 55 million already pushed into extreme poverty by the COVID-19 pandemic,” Grynspan said.

Grynspan says developing countries are facing alarming levels of debt distress and under investment. She says 46 developing countries are severely exposed to multiple economic shocks. She adds another 48 countries are seriously exposed, heightening the threat of a global debt crisis.

“So, countries that were showing signs of debt distress before COVID are taking some of the biggest hits, with climate shocks further threatening economic stability,” Grynspan said. “This is increasing the threat of a global debt crisis. So, countries urgently need real debt relief.”

Grynspan says there is still time to step back from the edge of recession if countries use available tools to calm inflation and support vulnerable groups.

Among its recommendations, UNCTAD urges a more pragmatic strategy that deploys strategic price controls, windfall taxes, anti-trust measures and tighter regulations on commodities speculation.
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OPEC+ will consider an oil output cut of more than a million barrels per day (bpd) when it meets on Oct. 5, OPEC sources told Reuters on Sunday.

The figure is slightly above estimates for a cut given last week, which ranged between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd.

OPEC+, which combines OPEC countries and allies such as Russia, is meeting in person in Vienna for the first time since March 2020.

“It is a meeting that is taking place at a very interesting global time,” one of the sources said.

The output cuts are being considered on the back of a slide in oil prices from multi-year highs reached in March and market volatility.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, first flagged the possibility of cuts to correct the market in August.
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Poland, far from being overwhelmed by the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians seeking refuge from Russia’s invasion of their country, is seeing its economy grow, according to economists.

The latest available figures from early August show about half of the working-age people who fled Ukraine for Poland are now employed.

In an interview with VOA, World Bank economist Reena Badiani-Magnusson, who specializes in the region, called the employment statistics for the temporarily displaced people, or TDPs, released by the Polish government “impressive.”

Badiani-Magnusson quotes a National Bank of Poland study that found between 2013 and 2018, during the first wave of Ukrainian migration, the presence of Ukrainian migrants in the country had a .5% positive impact on growth.

“On top of that, we’ve done some analysis of the current crisis, and we find that should 500,000 Ukrainian displaced people be integrated into the labor market successfully, we anticipate a medium-term impact on the growth of 1.5%,” she said.

Experts interviewed by VOA said there are three main reasons why the “refugee crisis” quickly filled the Polish market with needed labor. First, Ukrainians who arrived in Poland, including many mothers with children, had high professional qualifications and wanted to work. Second, Polish authorities quickly removed most barriers to Ukrainian TDP employment. And third, the sizeable Ukrainian diaspora facilitated the adjustment and labor engagement of the newly arrived compatriots fleeing the war.

Ukrainians working below their qualifications

For many newly arrived Ukrainian women, says Ludmila Dymitrow, a coordinator at the Information Center for Foreigners in Krakow, low-skilled work is only the first step.

“We explain that even if you had a good job and a high status in your homeland, you could find it here, too, but start with something simpler. A good start can begin in different ways, even from the checkout in a store. Learn the language, and life will give you other opportunities.”

One of many Ukrainian TDPs in Krakow, Olena Kurta, a mother of two, cleans hotel rooms. She used to teach law in the city of Horlivka, in the Russia-supported so-called Donetsk People’s Republic in 2014, and later opened and ran a daycare in Kryvyi Rih.

“I want to learn the language and find another job. I haven’t decided what I want to do. I have to start everything from the beginning,” said Kurta.

Tatyana Potapova, another Ukrainian woman, came to Krakow from the village of Lyptsi near Kharkiv, captured by Russians in the early days of the invasion. In her 60s and a chemist by education and employment, she enrolled in Polish-language classes as soon as she arrived.

“I imagine that I can work as a concierge in some institution. It is my dream. I am willing even to work in a store, but preferably not in a grocery store,” said Potapova in an interview with VOA.

Polish authorities provide immediate job assistance

On March 12, 2022, the Polish parliament passed a law on assistance to Ukrainian citizens, which gave the TDPs from Ukraine the right to stay legally in Poland for 18 months and access its health care system, education, social services and labor market.

The government and local authorities assist Ukrainian TDPs in finding employment. For example, the provincial Employment Administration helps connect job seekers with employers. It also began some programs, available only to Polish citizens and Ukrainian TDPs, that included financing 85% of the cost of job training, said its director. 

The administration sent their representative to the Center for Foreigners, located in the Krakow shopping mall, to help job seekers find opportunities and apply for vacancies.

Badiani-Magnusson points to a comprehensive approach to facilitating access of Ukrainian women to the labor market.

“The Polish government and society need to be recognized and commended for their generous and open-armed support to the populations arriving, the speed and rapidity at which populations that wanted to work were able to have registered temporary protection” that provided services that allowed to integrate them into the labor market, said the economist.

Ukrainian diaspora helps new arrivals find jobs

Maciej Bukowski, president of the Warsaw-based research institute Wise-Europa, draws attention to another aspect – before the arrival of a new wave of TDPs after February 24, Ukrainians were already in Poland, arriving especially after 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, and instigated and supported aggression in Donbas.

The presence of Ukrainians helped absorb the sudden and significant wave of new refugees from Ukraine.

Barriers for Ukrainians in the Polish labor market

Still, obstacles to the employment of the Ukrainian TDPs remain. The language barrier is one of them. Even though Ukrainian and Polish are linguistically close, it still takes time and effort to be able to speak Polish fluently.

The Zustricz Foundation, an organization of Ukrainians in Krakow, offers classes for Polish-language learners, one of the popular ways to assist Ukrainian TDPs.

A second barrier is the need to care for children. Almost half of those who arrived from Ukraine after February 24 and remained in Poland (600,000) are children.

Badiani-Magnusson of the World Bank points to the need to find employment that matches the qualifications of the Ukrainian job seekers. Zustricz Foundation founder Aleksandra Zapolska agrees – there is still a need to connect employers and job seekers, especially among the most qualified.

“In the medical field, there is a great need for nurses and doctors; for example, there is a shortage of psychiatrists. On the other hand, doctors do not fully know where to turn because not every hospital is interested at that moment; there is no such path for them to meet,” she explained.

The World Bank also says that Ukrainian entrepreneurs need help with adaptation to Polish legislation and access to finance. “You can imagine that you can have a very successful business in Ukraine, and you’d like to be able to bring those same skills into the Polish labor market,” says Badiani-Magnusson.

An uncertain outcome

Zapolska points to another problem – uncertainty about the future.

Will these people return to Ukraine? Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said Ukrainians will return with the liberation of Ukrainian territories; the critical moment here will be the liberation of Kherson. That is why, he said, it is essential to end the war in such a way that Russia cannot continue posing a threat to Ukrainian territories.

“Many Ukrainians do not know whether they will return, and their decision often changes,” said Zapolska.

According to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), more than 7 million Ukrainian TDPs remain in European countries – 1.3 million in Poland. Since the start of the full-scale offensive, more than 6 million people have crossed the border from Ukraine to Poland.

VOA’s Georgian Service contributed to this report.
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