As ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Plans Grow, So Do US Delinquencies

Americans have grown fond of “buy now, pay later” services, but the “pay later” part is becoming increasingly difficult for some borrowers.

Buy now, pay later loans allow users to pay for items such new sneakers, electronics, or luxury goods in installments. Companies such as Affirm, Afterpay, Klarna and PayPal have built popular financial products around these short-term loans, particularly for younger borrowers, who are fearful of never-ending credit card debt.

Now, as the industry racks up customers, delinquencies are climbing. Inflation is squeezing consumers, making it tougher to pay off debts. Some borrowers don’t budget properly, particularly if they are persuaded to take out multiple loans, while others may have been credit risks to begin with.

“You have an industry with a higher concentration of subprime borrowers in a market that hasn’t been effectively tested through [this type of economy], and you have a kind of a toxic brew of concerns,” said Michael Taiano, an analyst with Fitch Ratings, who co-wrote a report in July highlighting some of the concerns with the industry.

The most popular type of buy now, pay later loans allow for four payments over six weeks — one payment at the time of purchase and three others that borrowers often try to sync up with pay periods. Longer-term loans for bigger purchases are also available. Most of the short-term loans have no interest attached to them. Companies that do charge interest can clearly state upfront how much a borrower will pay in financial charges.

Given those features, consumer advocates and financial advisers initially had seen buy now, pay later plans as a potentially healthier form of consumer debt if used correctly. The biggest concern had been late fees, which could act as a hefty finance charge on a small purchase if a borrower is late on a payment. The fees can run as high as $34, plus interest. But now as delinquencies are rising, and companies are being more aggressive in marketing their products, advocates see a need for additional regulation.

The industry is growing rapidly, according to a report released Thursday by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Americans took out roughly $24.2 billion in loans on buy now, pay later programs in 2021, up from only $2 billion in 2019. That industry-wide figure is only expected to jump even more. Klarna’s customers bought $41 billion worth of product on its service globally in the first six months of the year, up 21% from a year ago. At PayPal, revenue from its buy now, pay later services more than tripled in the second quarter to $4.9 billion.

Jasmine Francis, 29, a technology analyst based in Charlotte, North Carolina, said she first used a buy now, pay later service in 2018 to buy clothes from fast-fashion brand Forever21.

“I remember I just had a cartful,” she said. “At first, I thought, ‘Something’s gotta go back,’ and then I saw Afterpay at checkout – you don’t pay for it all right now, but you get it all right now. That was music to my ears.”

How healthfully customers are using buy now, pay later loans is unclear. Fitch found that delinquencies on these services rose sharply in the 12 months ended March 31, while credit card delinquencies remained steady.

“This upward trend on delinquencies is continuing,” said Rohit Chopra, director of the CFPB, in a call with reporters.

Credit reporting company TransUnion found that buy now, pay later borrowers are using the product just as much as credit cards, piling on debt on top of additional debt. A poll by Morning Consult released this week found 15% of buy now, pay later customers are using the service for routine purchases, such as groceries and gas, a type of behavior that sounds alarm bells among financial advisors. The CFPB report also found a small, but growing number of Americans using these products for routine purchases as well.

“If these buy now, pay later plans are not adequately budgeted for, they can have a cascading impact across a person’s entire financial life,” said Andre Jean-Pierre, a former Morgan Stanley wealth advisor who now runs his own financial planning firm focused on helping Black Americans adequately save and budget.

Another concern among advisers and consumer advocates, as well as Washington lawmakers and regulators, is the ease with which consumers can layer on these installment loans.

Speaking at a hearing of the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday about new financial products, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio noted the benefits of plans that allow consumers to pay for things in installments. But he also criticized the way in which the industry promotes the plans.

“Ads encourage consumers to use these plans for multiple purchases, at multiple online stores — racking up debt they cannot afford to repay,” Brown said.

The short-term loans are potentially problematic because they’re not reported on a consumer’s credit profile with Transunion and Experian. Further the buy now, pay later industry’s customers skew young — meaning they have little credit history. Hypothetically, a borrower could take out several short-term loans across multiple buy now, pay later companies — a practice known as “loan stacking” — and they would never appear on a credit report. If a person puts too many items on buy now, pay later plans, budgeting could be difficult.

“It’s a blind spot for the industry,” Taiano of Fitch said.

In a statement, the buy now pay later industry trade group pushed back on the characterization that its products could saddle borrowers with too much debt.

“With zero to low-interest, flexible payment terms, and transparent terms and conditions, BNPL helps consumers manage their cash flow responsibly and live healthier financial lives,” said Penny Lee, CEO of the Financial Technology Association.

Meanwhile providers of buy now, pay later services see rising delinquencies as a natural consequence of growth, but also an indication that inflation is hitting Americans most likely to use these services the hardest.

“We have seen some stress (among those with the lowest credit scores), and those are starting to have a hard time,” said Max Levchin, founder and CEO of Affirm, one of the largest buy now, pay later companies.

“I would not call it a sort of preamble to a potential downturn, but it’s not the same kind of a smooth sailing it’s been,” he said, adding that Affirm is taking a more conservative approach towards lending.

Buy now, pay later took off in the U.S. after the Great Recession. The product, analysts said, largely has not been tested through a great period of financial distress, unlike mortgages or credit cards or auto loans.

Despite these concerns, the consensus is buy now, pay later companies are here to stay. Affirm, Klarna, Afterpay, which is owned by Block Inc., as well as PayPal and others are now widely embedded in Internet commerce.

Further, the industry’s growth is attracting more players. Technology titan Apple earlier this summer announced Apple Pay Later, where users can put purchases on a four-payment plan over six weeks.

“I generally plan purchases that I make using PayPal ‘Pay in 4’ so that my due dates for purchases land on my pay dates, as the due dates are every other week,” said Desiree Moore, 35, from Georgia.

Moore said she tries to use buy now pay later plans to cover purchases not in her usual monthly budget, so not to take money away from the needs of her children. She has been increasingly using the plans with inflation making items more expensive and is so far able to keep up with the payments.

Francis, the technical analyst, said it’s now common among her friends to pay for travel with the installment loans, to not completely drain their bank accounts in case of emergencies.

“If I come back home from vacation and have two flat tires, and I just spent all that money on plane tickets, that’s $400 you don’t have at the moment,” she said. “Most people don’t have savings. They just have enough for those flat tires.”

Biden Administration Says Rail Companies, Unions Reach Tentative Deal

U.S President Joe Biden said early Thursday major railroads and workers’ unions had reached a tentative agreement on better pay and improved working conditions intended to avert a nationwide rail strike.

“It is a win for tens of thousands of rail workers who worked tirelessly through the pandemic to ensure that America’s families and communities got deliveries of what have kept us going during these difficult years,” Biden said.

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh tweeted that the deal came after 20 hours of negotiations between rail companies and labor unions.

Walsh said the agreement “balances the needs of workers, businesses, and our nation’s economy.”

“Our rail system is integral to our supply chain, and a disruption would have had catastrophic impacts on industries, travelers and families across the country,” Walsh said.

Unions were seeking pay raises and better working conditions, along with changes to attendance policies that workers said make it difficult to take time off for things such as doctor appointments.

Union members must approve the tentative agreement.

Biden called the deal “an important win for our economy and the American people.”

“These rail workers will get better pay, improved working conditions, and peace of mind around their health care costs: all hard-earned,” Biden said in a statement.  “The agreement is also a victory for railway companies who will be able to retain and recruit more workers for an industry that will continue to be part of the backbone of the American economy for decades to come.”

A potential strike raised fears of major disruptions to deliveries of critical goods throughout the country.

Some information for this report came from Reuters and The Associated Press.

US Markets Shudder on Dashed Inflation Hopes; Dow Falls 1,250

Stocks tumbled to their worst day in more than two years Tuesday, knocking the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1,250 points, following Wall Street’s humbling realization that inflation is not slowing as much as hoped. 

The S&P 500 sank 4.3%, its biggest drop since June 2020. The Dow fell 3.9% and the Nasdaq composite closed 5.2% lower. The sell-off ended a four-day winning streak for the major stock indexes and erased an early rally in European markets. 

Bond prices also fell sharply, sending their yields higher, after a report showed inflation decelerated only to 8.3% in August, instead of the 8.1% economists expected. 

The hotter-than-expected reading has traders bracing for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even higher than expected to combat inflation, with all the risks for the economy that entails. Fears about higher rates sent prices dropping for everything from gold to cryptocurrencies to crude oil. 

“Right now, it’s not the journey that’s a worry so much as the destination,” said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments. “If the Fed wants to hike and hold, the big question is at what level.” 

The S&P 500 fell 177.72 points to 3,932.69. The drop didn’t quite knock out its gains over the past four days. The index is now down 17.5% so far this year. 

The Dow lost 1,276.37 points to 31,104.97, and the Nasdaq dropped 632.84 points to 11,633.57. Big tech stocks swooned more than the rest of the market, as all 11 sectors that make up the S&P 500 sank. 

Most of Wall Street came into the day thinking the Fed would hike its key short-term rate by a hefty three-quarters of a percentage point at its meeting next week. But the hope was that inflation was in the midst of quickly falling back to more normal levels after peaking in June at 9.1%. 

The thinking was that such a slowdown would let the Fed downshift the size of its rate hikes through the end of this year and then potentially hold steady through early 2023. 

Tuesday’s report dashed some of those hopes. 

“This piece of data just hammered home that the Fed isn’t going to have the data to do anything differently than continue on their rate-raising path for longer,” said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager with Globalt Investments. “It just increases the chance of an actual recession.” 

Many of the data points within the inflation report were worse than economists expected, including some the Fed pays particular attention to, such as inflation outside of food and energy prices. 

Markets focused on a 0.6% rise in such prices during August from July, double what economists expected, said Gargi Chaudhuri, head of investment strategy at iShares. 

The inflation figures were so much worse than expected that traders now see a one-in-three chance for a rate hike of a full percentage point by the Fed next week. That would be quadruple the usual move, and no one in the futures market was predicting such a hike a day earlier. 

The Fed has already raised its benchmark interest rate four times this year, with the last two increases by three-quarters of a percentage point. The federal funds rate is currently in a range of 2.25% to 2.50%. 

“The Fed can’t let inflation persist. You have to do whatever is necessary to stop prices from going up,” said Russell Evans, managing principal at Avitas Wealth Management. “This indicates the Fed still has a lot of work to do to bring inflation down.” 

Higher rates hurt the economy by making it more expensive to buy a house, a car or anything else bought on credit. Mortgage rates have already hit their highest level since 2008, creating pain for the housing industry. The hope is that the Fed can pull off the tightrope walk of slowing the economy enough to snuff out high inflation, but not so much that it creates a painful recession. 

 

Government: US Inflation Rate Eased in August, but Remains High

U.S. consumer price increases eased in August compared to a year ago, the government said Tuesday, but the drop was modest and may not be noticed much by financially squeezed American households. 

The inflation rate was up at an annualized 8.3% rate in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The figure was down from the 8.5% mark recorded in July and the 9.1% inflation rate in June, which was the biggest increase in four decades. 

Even as U.S. motorists have gladly watched gasoline prices fall sharply in recent weeks — down 10.6% from their peak — costs for food and apartment rentals have continued to increase. 

Overall, as a result, the government said that consumer prices were up one-tenth of a percent in August, compared to July. 

Food prices were up 0.8 percent in the past month, while costs for housing, medical care, new cars and household furnishings all increased in August compared to July. 

Stock investors in the United States remain worried about inflation, with major indexes falling more than 2% at the opening of trading on Tuesday, an hour after the release of the inflation report. 

President Joe Biden adopted a more optimistic view, saying, “Overall, prices have been essentially flat in our country these last two months. That is welcome news for American families, with more work still to do. 

“Gas prices are down an average of $1.30 a gallon since the beginning of the summer,” he said. “This month, we saw some price increases slow from the month before at the grocery store. And real wages went up again for a second month in a row, giving hard-working families a little breathing room.” 

Bankrate.com senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick said in a statement, “The prices for necessities continue to fuel this fire, including shelter, food, and medical care. The substantial decline in gasoline prices is noteworthy but doesn’t address the overall problem with inflation.  

“The report notes that the food index has jumped 11.4% over the past year, marking the biggest 12-month increase since May 1979,” Hamrick said.  

The Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, has already boosted its benchmark interest rate four times this year and signaled that it plans to impose another rate increase as policy makers meet again next week and could add more later in the year. 

The rate increases have rippled through the U.S. economy, boosting borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, with the Fed hoping the higher rates will dampen consumer demand and thus curb inflation.   

Fed chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this year, “Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing. We’re moving expeditiously to bring it back down.” 

Even with high inflation, the U.S. economy, the world’s largest, continues to add hundreds of thousands of new jobs to company payrolls month after month, and the 3.7% national unemployment rate in August is near a 50-year low.  

The U.S. has recovered all the jobs lost as the coronavirus pandemic surged into the country in March 2020. 

 

Twitter Whistleblower Bringing Security Warnings to Congress

Peiter “Mudge” Zatko, the Twitter whistleblower who is warning of security flaws, privacy threats and lax controls at the social platform, will take his case to Congress Tuesday. 

Senators who will hear Zatko’s testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee are alarmed by his Twitter allegations at a time of heightened concern over the safety of powerful tech platforms. 

It’s Zatko’s second Capitol Hill appearance, and in some ways a 21st-century echo of his first. In 1998, he testified before a Senate panel along with fellow members of a hacker collective who warned about the security dangers of the then-emerging internet age. 

Zatko, a respected cybersecurity expert, was Twitter’s head of security until he was fired early this year. He brought the stunning allegations to Congress and federal regulators, asserting that the influential social platform misled regulators about its cyber defenses and efforts to control millions of “spam” or fake accounts. 

Sen. Dick Durbin, the Illinois Democrat who chairs the panel, has said that if Zatko’s claims are accurate, “they may show dangerous data privacy and security risks for Twitter users around the world.” 

Musk battle

Zatko’s accusations are also playing into billionaire tycoon Elon Musk’s battle with Twitter. The Tesla CEO is trying to get out of his $44 billion bid to buy the company; Twitter has sued to force him to complete the deal. The Delaware judge overseeing that case ruled last week that Musk can include new evidence related to Zatko’s allegations in the high-stakes trial set to start October 17. 

The allegation that Twitter engaged in deception in its handling of automated “spam bot” accounts is at the core of Musk’s attempt to back out of the Twitter deal. 

At the same time, many of Zatko’s claims are uncorroborated and appear to have little documentary support. In a statement, Twitter has called Zatko’s description of events “a false narrative.” 

Also Tuesday, Twitter’s shareholders are scheduled to vote on the company’s pending buyout by Musk. The vote is something of a formality given that the deal is on hold while the court case plays out. But if the measure passes as expected, it would pave the way for a Musk takeover should Twitter prevail in court. 

Zatko also filed complaints with the Justice Department, the Federal Trade Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Among his most serious accusations is that Twitter violated the terms of a 2011 FTC settlement by falsely claiming that it had put stronger measures in place to protect the security and privacy of its users. 

The SEC is questioning Twitter about how it counts fake accounts on its platform. Twitter uses counts of its presumably real users to attract advertisers, whose payments make up about 90% of its revenue. The “spam bots” have no value to advertisers because there’s no person behind them. 

San Francisco-based Twitter has an estimated 238 million daily active users worldwide. The company says it removes 1 million spam accounts daily. 

‘Egregious deficiencies’

Zatko’s 84-page complaint alleges that he found “extreme, egregious deficiencies” on the platform, including issues with “user privacy, digital and physical security, and platform integrity/content moderation.” 

It accuses CEO Parag Agrawal and other senior executives and board members of making “false and misleading statements to users and the FTC” about these issues. Twitter denies those claims and has said that Zatko was fired in January for “ineffective leadership and poor performance.” Zatko’s attorneys say the performance claim is false. 

Twitter also hinted that Zatko’s complaint might be designed to bolster Musk’s legal fight with the company. Twitter called Zatko’s complaint “a false narrative” that is “riddled with inconsistencies and inaccuracies, and lacks important context.” 

News of Zatko’s complaint surfaced August 23, almost two months before the Twitter-Musk trial is scheduled to begin. One of Zatko’s attorneys has said “he’s never met Elon Musk. Doesn’t know Elon Musk. They know people in common.” 

The company also says it has significantly tightened security since 2020. 

Among Zatko’s specific allegations: 

— The company had such poor cybersecurity that it easily could have been exposed to outside attacks or attempts to siphon off its internal data. 

—The company lacked effective leadership, with its top executives practicing “deliberate ignorance” of pressing problems. Zatko described former CEO Jack Dorsey as “extremely disengaged” during the last months of his tenure, to the point where he wouldn’t even speak during meetings on complex issues. Dorsey stepped down in November 2021. 

—That Twitter knowingly allowed the government of India to place its agents on the company payroll, where they had “direct unsupervised access” to highly sensitive data on users. It makes a parallel but less detailed accusation that Twitter took funding from unidentified Chinese entities who may have gained access enabling them to access the identities and sensitive data of Chinese users who secretly use Twitter, which is officially banned in China. 

Better known by his hacker handle “Mudge,” Zatko, 51, first gained prominence in the 1990s. He was the best-known member of the Boston-based collective L0pht, which pioneered ethical hacking, embarrassing companies including Microsoft for poor security. His work raised awareness in the computing world that forced such major companies to take security seriously. He co-founded the consultancy @Stake, which was later acquired by Symantec. 

Zatko later worked in senior positions at the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and Google. He joined Twitter at Dorsey’s urging in late 2020, the same year the company suffered an embarrassing security breach involving hackers who broke into the Twitter accounts of world leaders, celebrities and tech moguls, including Musk, attempting to scam their followers out of bitcoin. 

Streaming to Survive: Thailand’s Out-Of-Work Elephants in Crisis

In the northeastern village of Ban Ta Klang in Thailand, Siriporn Sapmak starts her day by doing a livestream of her two elephants on social media to raise money to survive.

The 23-year old, who has been taking care of elephants since she was in school, points her phone to the animals as she feeds them bananas and they walk around the back of her family home.

Siriporn says she can raise about 1,000 baht ($27.46) of donations from several hours of livestreaming on TikTok and YouTube but that is only enough to feed her two elephants for one day.

It is a new – and insecure – source of income for the family, which before the pandemic earned money by doing elephant shows in the Thai city of Pattaya. They top up their earnings by selling fruit.

Like thousands of other elephant owners around the country, the Sapmak family had to return to their home village as the pandemic decimated elephant camps and foreign tourism ground to a virtual halt. Only 400,000 foreign tourists arrived in Thailand last year compared with nearly 40 million in 2019.

Some days, Siriporn doesn’t receive any donations and her elephants are underfed.

“We are hoping for tourists to (return). If they come back, we might not be doing these livestreams anymore,” she said.

“If we get to go back to work, we get a (stable) income to buy grass for elephants to eat.”

Edwin Wiek, founder of Wildlife Friends Foundation Thailand, estimates that at least a thousand elephants in Thailand would have no “proper income” until more tourists return.

Thailand has about 3,200 to 4,000 captive elephants, according to official agencies, and about 3,500 in the wild.

Wiek said the Livestock Development Department needs to find “some kind” of budget to support these elephants.

“Otherwise, it’s going to be difficult to keep them alive I think for most families,” he said.

“Like family”

The families in Ban Ta Klang, the epicenter of Thailand’s elephant business located in Surin province, have cared for elephants for generations and have a close connection to them.

Elephant shows and rides have long been popular with tourists, especially the Chinese, while animal rights groups’ criticism of how elephants are handled there has given rise to tourism in sanctuaries.

“We are bound together, like family members,” Siriporn’s mother Pensri Sapmak, 60, said.

“Without the elephants, we don’t know what our future will look like. We have today thanks to them.”

The government has sent 500,000 kilograms of grass across multiple provinces since 2020 to help feed the elephants, according to the Livestock Development Department, which oversees captive elephants.

Elephants, Thailand’s national animal, eat 150 kg to 200 kg each day, according to the Wildlife Conservation Society.

Siriporn and her mother, however, said they have not yet received any government support.

“This is a big national issue,” said Livestock Development Department Director-General Sorawit Thanito.

He said the government plans to assist elephants and their caretakers and that “measures along with a budget will be proposed to cabinet,” without giving a time frame.

While the government is expecting 10 million foreign tourists this year, some say this may not be enough to lure elephant owners back to top tourist destinations, given the costs involved. Chinese tourists, the mainstay of elephant shows, have also yet to return amid COVID-19 lockdowns at home.

“Who has the money right now to arrange a truck… and how much security (do) they have that they are really going to have business again when they go back?,” said Wiek.

He expected more elephants to be born in captivity over the next year, exacerbating the pressures on their owners.

“Some days we make some money, some days none, meaning there’s going to be less food on the table”,” said Pensri.

“I don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel.”

($1 = 36.4200 baht)

Ethiopia’s Industrial Hopes Dwindle as Conflict, Sanctions Take Toll

Ethiopia once said it wanted to become the “China of Africa” — that is, a manufacturing hub — with the help of its industrial parks. But the global economic downturn and the country’s ongoing conflict have prompted companies to leave the parks and lay off thousands of workers.

The Ethiopian government hoped that one the country’s industrial parks — Hawassa, which was opened in 2016 with the potential to create 60,000 jobs — would help the country move from an agricultural to a manufacturing economy, and that the companies operating there would bring high-tech work.   

Kalkidan Asrat, a logistics manager Nasa Garment at the Hawassa Industrila Park, shared those dreams. 

Her birthplace, she said, is a small town and her family worked in agriculture for a living as subsistence farmers. When she completed her education, she joined the industrial park, where she said she was able to improve her prospects.

There are 10 other industrial parks like Hawassa spread across Ethiopia.  

The government has said it hoped to make Ethiopia a lower middle-income country by 2025, with manufacturing playing a big part. 

That is now looking less likely because of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, a lack of foreign currency in the country, and conflict and human rights abuses.    

“Two of the industrial parks have been directly impacted. They’ve been in the combat zone, effectively,” said emerging markets economist Patrick Heinisch. “The most severe hit to the industrial parks is from the loss of access to AGOA. One week after the announcement, the first company announced they would retreat from the Ethiopian market; they sold their factories in Ethiopia. This has been followed by other companies.” 

The African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA, passed in the U.S. in 2000 to aid development in sub-Saharan Africa, gave Ethiopia duty-free access to the U.S. market for several products.

With Ethiopian wages much lower than those in China, a country synonymous with manufacturing, and AGOA making it cheaper to import goods to the U.S., many international manufacturing companies set up in Hawassa’s industrial sheds. 

On January 1, however, the U.S. withdrew Ethiopia’s access to AGOA due to “gross violations of human rights.”  

Rights groups have accused the Ethiopian government and its aligned military forces of large-scale human abuses, including ethnic cleansing, against Tigrayans during the country’s nearly two-year conflict.  

Tigrayan forces have also been accused of abuses. 

Thirty-five thousand people worked at Hawassa, but in June, one firm laid off 3,000 workers and others laid off hundreds.  

One factory owner in Hawassa, Raghavendra Pattar, said the country is struggling to adapt.

“We are forging towards a new market, but it will take more time to roll up the market again, so that’s why we are suffering a lot,” he said. “The country is suffering because of foreign currency availability in the country today. They also need support from other countries, big countries, like America.” 

The deputy general manager of the park, Belante Tebikew, said the withdrawal of AGOA was causing more problems than the pandemic or inflation.

“There are some, as I told you, reductions on orders, because they are being injured by the customs, duty-free privileges in the American markets, since most of the commodities are being exported to the U.S.,” he said. 

In another bad sign for the country’s economy, fighting between government and Tigrayan rebel forces broke out again in late August after a five-month cease-fire.

Online Firm Helps US Minorities Borrow From Friends, Family

High inflation and soaring interest rates are taking a financial toll on many Americans, especially low-income minorities, compelling a growing number to borrow money to make ends meet, according to debt monitoring organizations. At the same time, people of color are increasingly turning away from traditional lending institutions, opting instead to ask family and friends for a personal loan.

“I asked my sister to lend me money,” said Monica Welborn, an African American mother of two from Maryland. Welborn reluctantly made the request after being denied a bank loan for $4,000.

“They [the bank] said my credit score was too low to receive a [standard] loan,” she told VOA. “They offered to lend me half of what I wanted but at a very high interest rate.”

Welborn is among millions who face roadblocks to borrowing from traditional lending institutions. Minorities are especially likely to seek loans from other sources, usually people they know. A survey released by the U.S. Census Bureau earlier this year found that 17% of Black Americans and 15% of Hispanics had borrowed money from family and friends, compared to 7% of whites.

But informal loans can present challenges as well, including something as basic as nailing down the terms of repayment. A Florida-based financial technology firm is part of a growing industry dedicated to facilitating non-traditional lending, sometimes referred to as peer-to-peer.

“There’s got to be a better way from a software perspective we can make these loans a little less cumbersome, and a little less of a burden,” said Kaben Clauson, co-founder of Pigeon Loans. His company is hoping to capitalize on providing services for the tens of millions of Americans who rely on borrowing from friends and family.

Clauson, 34, launched the free online platform last year to make it easier for people to lend and borrow money outside the banking system. “You create a payment plan, and say I want to pay you back over the next 15 months and this is how much I’m going to pay you,” he said.

The service sends out text message reminders to borrowers to help ensure money is paid back on time and with minimal drama. The lender can also add an agreed upon interest rate, which Clauson maintains is typically much lower than those offered by banks.

Pigeon Loans said its service has increased 200% in the past two months, with 70% of its users either Black, Latino or Asian. “These are traditionally disadvantaged communities. So many of them are living paycheck to paycheck, but those communities have a legacy of helping one another,” Clauson told VOA.

Small business lending

Such lending isn’t limited to individuals for their own needs. Pigeon Loans has seen an uptick in the number of loans given to minority business owners. There are an estimated 8 million minority-owned businesses across the country, and most are sole proprietorships, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Clauson’s company recently helped an African American entrepreneur in the nation’s capital open a bakery with a $10,000 loan from a friend. “People in other communities that are more advantaged have a rich uncle or parents that can help them get them going,” he said. “That’s not the case for many in minority communities, particularly for entrepreneurs.”

Some observers see peer-to-peer lending as a crutch, not a solution. “Personal loans can help with startup opportunities for Black-owned businesses but it’s not a long-term solution,” said Rick Wade, senior vice president of strategic alliances at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “We want small minority companies across America to have a solid relationship with traditional lending institutions to help grow their business and we’ve got a lot of work to do in that regard.”

Taking on debt

Clauson predicts a wave of lending and borrowing on his platform next year if the U.S. economy slows and people take on more debt. He argues that borrowing from family, a neighbor or a colleague at work makes sense, especially when times are tough. “They’re likely going to give you the most favorable interest rate and payment terms,” he said.

Traditional lending institutions go to great lengths to vet borrowers and make sure they can repay loans. Does bypassing such procedures lead to greater loan delinquency? Not according to Pigeon Loans.

The company says its platform has attracted more than 50,000 users who, according to Clauson, have a 97% on-time repayment rate. The loan default rate, in which the money is never repaid, is said to be less than 1%.

Clauson acknowledges the loan platform may not be for everyone and warns against lending money that would otherwise be used to pay for one’s own core expenses.

“If you happen to be lucky enough to have some discretionary cash you can lend, go for it. But make sure that you have your own financial house in order first,” he said.

Australian Central Bank Raises Interests Rates Again to Tame Inflation 

Australia has followed other countries with more increases in interest rates to mitigate inflationary pressures. Economists are predicting more pain for mortgage holders after Australia’s Reserve Bank (RBA) raised interest rates Tuesday for the fifth consecutive month to a seven-year high. 

Slower world economic growth is the backdrop to the most aggressive series of interest rate increases in Australia since 1994. China’s economy is slowing, and the U.S. central bank has raised interest rates to subdue soaring prices.

Cost of living pressures were a key concern of voters in May’s federal election and many household budgets remain stretched.

The Reserve Bank of Australia, or RBA, has increased its official rate by 0.5 percentage points to 2.35% to try to tame high inflation, the general increase in the prices of goods and services. In Australia, it is at a 21-year high of 6.1% and experts believe it could reach 7% by Christmas.

Interest rates dictate the cost of borrowing money. The official levels set by central banks, including the RBA, influence rates charged by banks and other financial institutions for home loans and other financing. They also help determine returns for savers, who should benefit from rising interest rates.

But Ivan Colhoun, the chief economist for markets at the National Australia Bank, says mortgage holders will be worse off.

“If we get another half-a-percent, say, before Christmas that will nearly be two-and-three-quarter-percent of an increase in rates in (a) seven- or eight-month period. If you are on a $500,000 mortgage that is about $15,000 extra in interest payments, which is over $1,000 a month. So, that is not a small amount of extra money that households with mortgages have to come up with,” he said.

Central banks manipulate interest rates to, for example, subdue spending by consumers to reduce demand for goods and services to try to curb runaway prices.

In Australia, there is evidence the economy is growing too quickly for the Reserve Bank.

Government figures released Wednesday have shown the Australian economy grew 0.9% in the June quarter and 3.6% in the past year. The growth was fueled mainly by household spending and exports, but does not fully reflect recent interest rate rises.

The RBA said it expects further rate increases later this year, possibly in October.

Unemployment in Australia — another key indicator of the health of an economy — is at its lowest since 1974 at 3.4%.

Exports are booming as demand for energy in Europe and Asia drives up prices for Australia’s coal and liquefied natural gas.

The impact of successive interest rate rises on the Australian economy will become apparent in the months ahead.

Tory Front-Runner Truss Vows Fast Action on Cost of Living 

Liz Truss, who is widely expected to become Britain’s new prime minister this week, has pledged to act within a week to tackle a cost-of-living crisis fueled by soaring energy bills linked to the war in Ukraine.

But Truss, speaking to the BBC Sunday, refused to provide any details on the actions she would take, suggesting it would be wrong to discuss specific policies until she takes the top post. She stressed, however, that she understands the magnitude of the problems facing Britain.

The government has been unable to address soaring inflation, labor strife and strains on the nation’s creaking health care system since early July, when Johnson announced his intention to resign and triggered a contest to choose his successor. The ruling Conservative Party will announce the winner Monday.

“I want to reassure people that I am absolutely determined to sort out this issue as well as, within a month, present a full plan for how we are going to reduce taxes, how we’re going to get the British economy going, and how we are going to find our way out of these difficult times,’’ said Truss, who has been foreign secretary for the past year.

Truss is facing Rishi Sunak, the government’s former Treasury chief, in the contest to become Conservative Party leader and so prime minister. Only dues-paying party members were allowed to vote in the election, putting the choice of Britain’s next leader in the hands of about 180,000 party activists.

During the campaign, Truss promised to increase defense spending, cut taxes and boost energy supplies, but she refused to provide specifics on how she would respond to the cost-of-living crisis.

With household energy bills set to increase by 80% next month, charities warn that as many as one in three households will face fuel poverty this winter, leaving millions fearful of how they will pay to heat their homes.

The Bank of England has forecast that inflation will reach a 42-year high of 13.3% in October, threatening to push Britain into a prolonged recession. Goldman Sachs has estimated that inflation could soar to 22% by next year unless something is done to mitigate high energy prices.

G7 Finance Ministers Press Forward With Plan for Price Cap on Russian Oil 

The finance ministers of the Group of Seven leading industrial nations agreed Friday to move forward with an unprecedented plan to cap the price of oil that Russia sells on global markets in order to limit the funds that Moscow uses to pay for the war in Ukraine.

The price cap proposal comes as the European Union prepares to implement a complete embargo on Russian oil in December. The EU plan would also ban companies in the bloc from insuring or financing Russian oil shipments.

U.S. officials have expressed concern that a complete ban on Russian oil sales to the EU, along with the further disruption caused by the insurance and financing restrictions, could tip the global economy into recession.

The price cap, being pushed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, would create an exception to the ban for oil that is sold at or below the cap.

Energy market experts pointed out that the statement released by the G-7 finance ministers Friday was short on details, however, and that the plan would be extremely difficult to enact. Many large oil consumers, including China and India, are unlikely to participate, and even in countries that promise to honor the cap, compliance would be extremely difficult to monitor.

 

Triggered by Ukraine war

The finance ministers made it clear Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is the reason they are seeking to choke off Moscow’s supply of oil revenues.

“Russia’s war of aggression is causing global economic disruptions and is threatening the security of the global supply of energy and food,” they said in a statement. “The economic costs of the war and consequent price increases are felt disproportionately by vulnerable groups across all economies and particularly by those countries already facing food insecurities and fiscal challenges.”

They added, “The price cap is specifically designed to reduce Russian revenues and Russia’s ability to fund its war of aggression whilst limiting the impact of Russia’s war on global energy prices, particularly for low- and middle-income countries, by only permitting service providers to continue to do business related to Russian seaborne oil and petroleum products sold at or below the price cap.”

‘Critical step forward’

In a statement released Friday morning, Yellen praised the G-7 for taking a “critical step forward in achieving our dual goals of putting downward pressure on global energy prices while denying Putin revenue to fund his brutal war in Ukraine.”

“Today’s action will help deliver a major blow for Russian finances and will both hinder Russia’s ability to fight its unprovoked war in Ukraine and hasten the deterioration of the Russian economy,” she said. “We have already begun to see the impact of the price cap through Russia’s hurried attempts to negotiate bilateral oil trades at massive discounts.”

Yellen said that she looked forward to working with allies to finalize the proposal in the coming weeks, a tacit admission that the arrangement will require far more than just the assent of the G-7.

To be successful, the 27 EU members would have to unanimously approve the price cap plan. With some members, particularly Hungary, chafing at the restrictions already placed on dealing with Russia, that agreement may be difficult to attain.

 

Experts dubious

Energy market experts said that there are a number of other practical obstacles to a price cap.

In an email exchange with VOA, Edward C. Chow, a nonresident senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ energy security and climate change program, said that many of the key details of the plan were absent and would be difficult to come to agreement on in the time frame being considered.

“There are no specific action steps in the statement,” said Chow, who has worked for 45 years in the international oil and gas business, including 20 years with oil giant Chevron. “It is even missing what price level the cap will be set at or what mechanism will be used for setting the appropriate cap. Indeed, the statement mentioned further consultations with other countries, which have shown little interest [in participating]. This will only slow down the process of formulating a real policy.”

“The problem is that the Western governments have conflicting objectives,” Chow wrote. “They want to greatly reduce Russia’s oil income but without greatly reducing global supply, given the resulting impact on price and their own economies. Oil sanctions were never the silver bullet if the objective is to stop Russia’s all-out assault on Ukraine as soon as possible.”

 

Monitoring difficulty

“I am skeptical that they can make this work effectively,” James W. Coleman, a professor at Southern Methodist University Dedman School of Law in Dallas, told VOA. “It would take a very high level of monitoring that I don’t think we have any reason to be confident would be successful.”

For example, it would be difficult to track the origin of all the oil purchased by individual countries, especially given the increasingly common ship-to-ship oil transfers in international waters.

Coleman pointed out that Venezuela, which is subject to heavy U.S. sanctions, was found in 2020 to be selling its oil to China by diverting it through Malaysia.

“China is now importing more oil from Malaysia than Malaysia produces,” he said.

He said it would also be difficult to ensure countries weren’t compensating Russia for discounted oil by other means, such as price reductions on goods that Russia imports.

“Obviously, nations have all sorts of interactions, and it’s not that hard to pay Russia back in those other interactions that are kind of ‘off the books,’ ” Coleman said.

Indonesia Hikes Fuel Prices by 30%, Cuts Energy Subsidies

Fuel prices increased by about 30% across Indonesia Saturday after the government reduced some of the costly subsidies that have kept inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy among the world’s lowest.

Indonesians have been fretting for weeks about a looming increase in the price of subsidized Pertalite RON-90 gasoline sold by Pertamina, the state-owned oil and gas company. Long lines of motorbikes and cars snaked around gas stations as motorists waited for hours to fill up their tanks with cheaper gas before the increase took effect on Saturday.

The hike — the first in eight years — raised the price of gasoline from about 51 cents to 67 cents per liter and diesel fuel from 35 cents to 46 cents.

President Joko Widodo said the decision to increase the fuel prices was his last option as the country’s energy subsidy had tripled this year to 502 trillion rupiah ($34 billion) from its original budget, triggered by rising global prices of oil and gas.

“The government has tried its best as I really want fuel prices to remain affordable,” Widodo told a televised address announcing the fuel hike. “The government has to make decisions in difficult situations.”

He said that the flow of subsidies to the public was not well targeted — about 70% of subsidies were benefiting middle and upper classes — and the government decided instead to increase social assistance.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said authorities were monitoring the impact on inflation and economic growth of the rise in fuel price.

Inflation has been relatively modest with the shock being mostly absorbed through a budget bolstered by energy subsidies. Inflation hit 4.6% in August as Bank Indonesia, the central bank, has said it would reassess the inflation outlook in response to the government fuel price policy.

Indrawati said in a separate news conference that the government would provide 150,000 rupiah ($10) cash handouts to cushion the impact of the fuel price increase on 20.6 million poor families until the year-end. The total cost of the handouts will be 12.4 trillion rupiah, which will be reallocated from the budget for energy subsidies.

She said the government will also spend 9.6 trillion rupiah ($644 million) on salary assistance to about 16 million low paid workers and 2.17 trillion rupiah ($145 million) will go to subsidizing transport costs, particularly for motorcycle taxi drivers and fishermen.

“We hope this can reduce pressure of rising prices and help reduce poverty,” Indrawati said.

The government has subsidized fuel for decades in Indonesia, the vast archipelago nation of more than 270 million people.

Fuel prices are a politically sensitive issue that could trigger other price hikes and risk student protests. In 1998, an increase in prices sparked riots that helped topple longtime dictator Suharto.

FAO: Lower Food Prices Not Helping Consumers

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization says consumers are not yet feeling the benefits of declining food prices. The FAO says world food commodity prices dipped for the fifth consecutive month in August.

Lower world food prices generally reflect better availability at the global level. However, FAO says, this time, lower wholesale prices have not led to better food access or lower prices for consumers.

FAO Director of the Markets and Trade Division Boubaker Ben-Belhassen said availability has improved, while access to food commodities has not. This, despite declining prices five months in a row.

“This is due to several factors including the persistent high cost of processing and transportation, logistics, and the exchange rate also of currencies of countries as against the U.S. dollar,” he said. “Also, the cost-of-living crisis has affected access. So, that is why we have not seen this decline in prices at the world level translating into lower prices for consumers or at the retail level.”

Ben-Belhassen cautioned that a drop in world prices does not necessarily result in market stability. He said that is subject to the uncertainties and volatility surrounding developments in the energy market and the price of fertilizer.

He said continued high energy and gas prices reduce profitability and increase production costs for farmers. He added that will pose a serious challenge for farmers in the coming year.

He noted the U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain initiative allowing Ukraine to export its grain and other foodstuffs has improved the availability of food on the world market. Prior to the July agreement, Russia had blockaded Ukraine’s three key ports triggering a global food crisis.

Ben-Belhassen said the better availability of food on the global level has not translated into greater access at the consumer level. He said the increased shipment of goods from Ukraine has not alleviated food scarcity in sub-Saharan Africa and other developing countries. He noted that is because most grain exports go to middle-income countries.

“So, it does not really go to those countries that are most affected or are most in need for better domestic supplies,” he said. “We hope the situation will improve with time. We hope that the shipment also will go to these countries.… We are still concerned about access, about the cost-of-living crisis.”

The FAO official says families in low- and middle-income countries tend to spend 50% to 60% of their monthly income on food. He warned the implication for food security could be very serious if consumer food prices do not drop significantly.

US Job Growth Solid in August; Unemployment Rate Rises to 3.7%

U.S. employers hired slightly more workers than expected in August, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to deliver a third 75 basis points interest rate hike this month, though the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 315,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Data for July was revised slightly down to show payrolls surging 526,000 instead of 528,000 as previously reported. That marked the 20th straight month of job growth.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing 300,000. Estimates ranged from as low as 75,000 to as high as 450,000. The unemployment rate increased to 3.7% from a a pre-pandemic low of 3.5% in July.

The employment report came a week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned Americans of a painful period of slow economic growth and possibly rising unemployment as the U.S. central bank aggressively tightens monetary policy to quell inflation.

Solid job growth last month was further evidence that the economy continues to expand even as gross domestic product contracted in the first half of the year and was another sign the Fed still needs to cool the labor market despite the front loading of rate hikes.

The Fed has twice raised its policy rate by three-quarters of a percentage point in June and July. Since March, it has lifted that rate from near zero to its current range of 2.25% to 2.50%. Financial markets are pricing a roughly 70% probability of a 75 basis points increase at the Fed’s Sept. 20-21 policy meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

August consumer price data due mid-month will also be a major factor in determining the size of the next rate increase. Despite rising recession risks, the labor market continues to chart its own path. There were 11.2 million job openings on the last day of July, with two job openings for every unemployed person. First-time applications for unemployment benefits are running very low by historical standards.

Economists attributed the labor market resilience to businesses hoarding workers after experiencing difficulties in the past year as the COVID-19 pandemic forced some people out of the workforce in part because of prolonged illness caused by the disease.

With legal immigration slowing, they say fewer workers are likely to become a permanent reality for employers. There is also pent-up demand for workers in service industries like restaurants and airlines, which are among the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic. The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one remains more than a full percentage point below its pre-pandemic level.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in August after increasing 0.5% in July. That kept the annual increase in wages at 5.2% in August.

Strong wage gains are keeping the income side of the economic growth ledger expanding, though at a moderate pace, and a recession at bay for now.

Zambia Receives IMF Bailout for Debt Reduction Plan

Zambia’s President Hakainde Hichilema has pledged to improve the country’s financial situation after it received a $1.3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Zambia was the first African country to default on its debt in the COVID-19 era.

President Hakainde Hichilema, speaking Thursday at the launch of plans aimed at boosting the country’s socioeconomic development, said the IMF Executive Board had approved a financial assistance program for Zambia.  

“They approved our extended credit facility for this great country whose greatness lies ahead of us and for us to make our country greater we have to do what is necessary in all the spheres and in all the areas,” said Hichilema.

The $1.3 billion bailout is aimed at kickstarting the country’s economy and restructuring its debt. The plan allows Zambia to immediately access $185 million.  

The financial assistance approved on Wednesday will give Zambia room in the budget to increase social spending and strengthen governance. The framework of the bailout will require the country to improve its public financial management.

According to Zambian government debt data, the country accumulated $31.74 billion by the end of 2021, of which $17.27 billion was external debt.  

Nearly one-third of the debt — $5.78 billion – is owed to China.

In November 2020, Zambia was unable to make its payments on a $42.5 million Eurobond, becoming the first African country in the pandemic era to default on its debt.

In July of this year, the southern African nation canceled projects worth $2 billion to prevent its debt from growing further.  

The country plans to increase copper production to 3 million tons a year in the next 10 years and produce foodstuffs for export in an effort to reduce its debt.

Hichilema says his government will have to make tough choices for high economic growth.

“The macroeconomic objectives set out in the eight national development plans are to place our economy on a higher growth trajectory, no question about it,” said Hichilema. “That’s the agenda next to restrain fiscal deficits that we experienced in the last seven or so years to a point where we failed to live within our means and defaulted on our obligations.”

Hichilema said the country must depart from rampant corruption, overvaluing the government projects and failing to finish them on time.

He pledged to reduce domestic debt and inject money into the economy.

Zambia’s next step is to sign a legally non-binding memorandum of understanding with the G-20 bilateral creditors committee, which is intended to assist countries in resolving their debt. The authorities hope to complete discussion on the memorandum by the end of 2022. The G-20 refers to the Group of 20 large economies.

Arizona Governor to Focus on Semiconductors in Taiwan Visit 

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday for a visit focused on semiconductors, the critical chips used in everyday electronics that the island manufactures.

Ducey is on a mission to woo suppliers for the new $12 billion Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC) plant being built in the state. He is traveling with the Arizona Chamber of Commerce president and the head of the state’s economic development agency.

Ducey is to meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, business leaders and university representatives in the semiconductor industry, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

American states are competing to attract a multibillion-dollar wave of investment in chip factories as the U.S. government steps up spending on expanding the U.S. semiconductor industry with a recently passed law. Last week, the Indiana governor visited Taiwan for a similar purpose.

U.S. officials worry that the country relies too heavily on Taiwan and other Asian suppliers for processor chips used in smartphones, medical devices, cars and most other electronic devices.

Those worries have been aggravated by tensions with China over technology and security. The potential for disruption was highlighted by chips shortages due to the coronavirus pandemic that sent shockwaves through the auto and electronics industries.

Taiwan produces more than half the global supply of high-end processor chips.

Beijing, which claims self-ruled Taiwan as its territory, fired missiles into the sea near the island starting on Aug. 4 after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited, disrupting shipping and air traffic, and highlighting the possibility that chip exports might be interrupted.

A law approved by Congress on July 29 promises more than $52 billion in grants and other aid to develop the U.S. semiconductor industry and a 25% tax credit for investors in chip factories in the United States.

State governments are now promising tax breaks and grants to lure chip factories they hope will become centers for high-tech industry.

Intel Corp., the only major U.S. producer, announced plans in March 2021 to build two chip factories in Arizona at a cost of $20 billion. The company has had another facility in Arizona since 1980.

In January, Intel announced plans to invest $20 billion in a chip factory in Ohio.

TSMC., headquartered in Taiwan and which makes chips for Apple Inc. and other customers, announced plans last year to invest $3.5 billion in its second U.S. manufacturing site in North Phoenix, Arizona.

TSMC’s first U.S. semiconductor wafer fabrication facility is in Camas, Washington. It also operates design centers in San Jose, California, and Austin, Texas.

South Korea’s Samsung Electronics says it will break ground in 2024 for a $17 billion chip factory near Austin, Texas. The state says it is the biggest single investment to date in Texas.

Sri Lanka’s President to Present Relief Budget Amid Crisis 

Sri Lanka’s new government plans Tuesday to present an amended budget for the year that slashes expenses and aims to provide relief to people hit hard by the country’s economic meltdown.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is also the finance minister, will present the budget in Parliament, which will voted on it after a debate.

The government is negotiating with a visiting International Monetary Fund team on a program to rescue Sri Lanka from its economic crisis. The government is also preparing to negotiate a restructuring of foreign loans Sri Lanka is unable to repay because of a severe foreign exchange shortage.

Prior to the visit, the IMF said in a statement because Sri Lanka’s public debt is unsustainable, the IMF’s executive board will need assurances by Sri Lanka’s creditors that debt sustainability will be restored before any bailout program begins.

Sri Lanka’s total foreign debt exceeds $51 billion — of which it must repay $28 billion by 2027.

The IMF delegation is expected to conclude its visit Wednesday and the government hopes to reach a preliminary agreement by then.

Sri Lankans have faced acute shortages of essentials like fuel, medicine, and cooking gas for months. Though cooking gas supplies were restored through World Bank support, shortages of fuel, critical medicines and some food items continue.

Long fuel lines are reappearing after a quota system seemed to have brought them under control over the past weeks.

“I thought things are improving,” salesperson Asanka Chandana said. “For several weeks in May and June, we faced severe hardships, but things were getting better over the last two weeks after the introduction of the quota system. Now it looks like the shortage is still there and we are back to the square one.”

Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera said lapses in distribution, delays in unloading, and payments for orders by fuel stations have created long lines. He said the issues will be sorted within days.

The new budget comes amid a relative calm following months of public protests that led to the ouster of Wickremesinghe’s predecessor Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his family members from power. Protesters accused the once-powerful Rajapaksa political family of being primarily responsible for the economic crisis through corruption and mismanagement.

Rajapaksa fled the country in July and resigned after protesters stormed his official residence. He is now in Thailand.

Party leaders say Rajapaksa is expected to return from exile early in September and have asked Wickremesinghe to provide him with security and facilities to which a former president is legally entitled.

Wickremesinghe, who was elected president in Parliament mainly through the votes of Rajapaksa’s loyalists, has since cracked down on protesters, arresting leaders and those occupied the president’s official residence and other key state buildings at the height of the demonstrations.

He also had the protest site opposite the president’s office dismantled.

The crackdown and the use of a harsh anti-terror law to detain a protest leader has led to the United States and European Union raising human rights concerns.

Wickremesinghe has also largely silenced those calling for his resignation who believe he is only an extension of Rajapaksas’ administration and protecting the political future of the former ruling family.

At one time besides the president, the prime minister and four other government ministers came from the same family before all of them were forced to resign.

“I don’t see a significant change except there is a new person in the office of the president,” political analyst Jayadeva Uyangoda said.

Rajapaksa’s politics continue because his party still holds the majority in Parliament.

Wickremesinghe has unsuccessfully tried to convince opposition parties to join his government so they could win over international trust.

“No opposition party seems to be willing to join Mr. Wickremesinghe’s proposed all-party government for two reasons; they think Mr. Wickremesinghe lacks legitimacy and they are not happy with the dominance of the Rajapaksa party,” Uyangoda said.