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The U.S. Congress moved one step closer this week to making the United States the first country to ban the import of goods produced by Uyghur slave labor.

After more than a year of negotiations, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act passed the House of Representatives unanimously late Tuesday and is poised to move quickly through the Senate and to President Joe Biden’s desk.

Once it becomes law, the bill will ban all imports from China’s Xinjiang region into the United States unless companies can show the U.S. government “clear and convincing evidence” their supply chains have not used the labor of ethnic Muslims enslaved in Chinese camps.

Beijing describes the camps as “re-education” facilities aimed at combating terrorism.

Democratic Representative Jim McGovern and Republican Senator Marco Rubio reached a compromise agreement on bills they had each passed in their respective chambers over the past year. The White House said Tuesday it would work closely with Congress to implement the measure.

“We agree with Congress that action can and must be taken to hold the People’s Republic of China accountable for genocide and human rights abuses and to address forced labor in Xinjiang,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement ahead of House passage of the bill.

The renewed push to hold China accountable for rights abuses comes ahead of the February 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. The U.S. declared Chinese treatment of the Uyghurs genocide earlier this year and announced a diplomatic boycott of the Winter Olympics last week. Earlier this month, an independent tribunal found Chinese senior leadership holds “primary responsibility” for acts of genocide against the Uyghurs.

China condemned House passage of the bill early Wednesday, describing the U.S. as hypocritical for not addressing forced labor within its own borders.  

“China firmly opposes the interference by the U.S. Congress in China’s internal affairs under the pretext of Xinjiang-related issues. By cooking up lies and making troubles on such issues, some U.S. politicians are seeking to contain China and hold back China’s development through political manipulation and economic bullying in the name of human rights,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, said in a press conference Wednesday.

Human rights groups praised the legislation and said it marked an important starting point for countries to address Chinese treatment of the Uyghurs.  

“It’s a signal to the rest of the world that the U.S. is actually going to take action on this,” Peter Irwin, senior program officer for advocacy and communications at the Uyghur Human Rights Project, told VOA.

“It can also set a template for other governments to pick this up and say we’re going to pass our own forced labor bill. For example, if the U.S. stops allowing in forced labor goods, then [Chinese] leaders shift their exports to Europe or to Canada. So having that template for other governments to pick up and actually pass these kinds of bills, that helps the U.S. — similar to the diplomatic boycott. The U.S. was first; other governments followed.”

The original 2020 Senate version of the bill, co-sponsored by Rubio and Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley, marked the first time a bill addressing Uyghur human rights was passed anywhere in the world.

U.S. companies Nike and Coca-Cola actively lobbied against earlier versions of the legislation. The Biden administration did come out in support of those versions, leading Rubio to claim the White House was holding back on his bill due to concerns from climate change envoy John Kerry. Irwin told VOA more than 40% of the world’s polysilicon supply comes from Xinjiang, a loss that would complicate the manufacture of solar cells and panels.

Rubio praised the compromise legislation in a statement Tuesday, saying, “The United States is so reliant on China that we have turned a blind eye to the slave labor that makes our clothes, our solar panels, and much more. That changes today. Our Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act will require businesses importing goods into the United States to prove that their supply chains are not tainted with slave labor. It is time to end our economic addiction to China.”  

The legislation marks a rare point of bipartisan agreement on Capitol Hill.

Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also praised the legislation, saying it marked an opportunity for the U.S. Congress to “continue to condemn and confront the CCP’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang and in the region and hold it accountable. If America does not speak out for human rights in China because of commercial interests, we lose all moral authority to speak out for human rights any place in the world,” Pelosi said in a statement ahead of the vote.

Lin Yang contributed to this report.
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In Lebanon, a desperate economic situation has led to a rise in illegal logging. Local authorities are in a bind as they try to protect both a valuable ecological heritage and their own vulnerable residents. Jacob Russell reports from northern Lebanon. Producer: Marcus Harton.
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China is financing the construction of four coal-fired power plants in southern Africa, despite its climate pledge in September to quit supporting such infrastructure overseas. But the new facilities taking shape in South Africa and Zimbabwe are just a few of Beijing’s massive investments in airports, railway lines and other national infrastructure on the African continent. 

Many countries have been eager for the investment, but mounting levels of debt over the past five years are raising doubts about the long-term prospects for more expensive infrastructure projects.

China committed to lending African countries $153 billion from 2000-2019, but that pace of lending may be slowing down. Chinese loan commitments dropped by 30% in 2019 when compared with the previous year, according to the China-Africa Research Initiative at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. The research looks at loan commitments which get “disbursed to borrowers as projects are implemented.”

In Zambia for example, Chinese financiers committed $10.3 billion in loans from 2000-2010.Since 2000, Zambia has only repaid some $1.2 billion to Chinese lenders. 

Uganda now owes China $200 million for its only international airport, fanning fears that China could seize it. Both countries have rejected speculation in African media outlets of a Chinese takeover.

Loan repayment measures

Neighboring Kenya had received a $4.5 billion loan to build a railway from Nairobi to the port city of Mombasa, and China indicates it will redo the terms after a committee of the African country’s parliament found that operating losses and debt to Chinese banks were straining taxpayers.

Some analysts have warned that opaque lending terms means China could eventually seize infrastructure should countries struggle to meet repayments

U.S. and British officials say, “debt traps,” where countries cannot raise enough money to repay China’s loans, are structured to give Beijing leverage over time. Last month, the head of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, Richard Moore, in an interview with BBC Radio 4 said Beijing can acquire “significant ports which have the potential to become naval facilities etcetera.”

Sri Lanka earlier this year passed legislation that critics say will give China control over a key deep-water port that Beijing financed.

But that has not happened so far in Africa, where Chinese diplomats reject seizures are a part of Beijing’s strategy.

“Not a single project in Africa has ever been “confiscated” by China because of failing to pay Chinese loans. On the contrary, China firmly supports and is willing to continue our efforts to improve Africa’s capacity for home-driven development,” stated the Chinese Embassy in Uganda. 

Instead of seizing assets, Beijing will likely extend deadlines for loan repayment or rework payback terms such as interest rates, analysts told VOA. Those measures would avert takeovers of the infrastructure itself and in turn preserve China’s reputation in Africa where trade and lending have bested its superpower rival in dollar terms.

China will probably “keep kicking the can down the road” until creditors find the means to settle the loans, Bulelani Jili, an African studies Ph.D. candidate at Harvard University, told VOA.

To confiscate any assets, including minerals, would “confirm people’s initial biases of China as a neocolonial actor,” Jili said, and risk upsetting diplomatic ties with “some of the few friends that China has on the global stage.”

“From the China side, it’s about getting access to new possible markets and expanding both economic activity — also the diplomatic relation,” he said.

Chinese loan concerns

China encourages lending to Africa in search of high returns on investments and a global reputation as a supporter of poor countries, said Edward Miguel, Oxfam professor in Environmental Resource Economics at the University of California, Berkeley. It is trying to “equal the U.S.” as a donor country, he said.

However, China differs from other international lenders and donors mainly for its relative lack of transparency that raises questions in Africa as well as in the West, Miguel believes.

Unlike loans from western governments or international lending bodies like the World Bank, which require labor and environmental safeguards on financed projects, China’s aid and loans to Africa have been described as “no strings attached,” which has been attractive for many countries.

 But African nations, especially with economies slipping because of the impacts of COVID-19, face increasing trouble paying back loans, said Hannah Ryder, senior associate with the Africa Program at the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“China and other countries are becoming more sophisticated in bargaining with one another,” wrote Deborah Brautigam of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University and Harvard Business School’s Meg Rithmire in a joint article. 

Residents in Dakar, Senegal, where the 500-person Forum on China-Africa Cooperation meeting took place on November 29-30, want more Chinese-funded infrastructure but without debt levels like those of the 1990s, Ryder noted.

Chinese creditors are expected to lend less money to Africa going forward and more carefully analyze the projects those loans support, experts say. Loans have already “sobered down” [tapered off] from a peak in 2014, Jili said.

Commitments for loans and other investments made at the China-Africa Cooperation meeting came to $40 billion, one-third less than the $60 billion made at the same conference in 2018.

Lenders may calibrate loans based on predictions of a post-pandemic future when African countries have more cash, said Yun Sun, co-director of the East Asia program at the Stimson Center in Washington. Another option, she said, is to ensure Chinese equity from future projects as repayment for older loans, she said in a VOA interview.

“It’s politically risky, because although it’s not an equity-asset swap, it smells a lot like some sort of swap, and [that] China is exploiting Africa’s weak position, so I don’t think it will happen in the immediate future and in fact this debt restructuring is also taking quite a while,” Sun said.

China is becoming more confident all the while in setting up international public-private partnerships, though many African countries still worry about a repeat of the debt crisis in the 1980s and 1990s when nations could not pay off debt, Ryder says in an African Business commentary. International organizations ultimately wrote off that wave of unaffordable debt with conditions including opening “their economies to international trade, liberalize their currencies and drastically cut costs in exchange for loans,” wrote Peter Fabricius in the Institute for Security Studies.

Fast forward to the present, with loans from China, African countries, Miguel said, often end up asking “what did we agree to do” and “how much do we owe” China.

 
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Nigeria has been recording massive growth in its information technology sector, but only one-fifth of IT workers are women, according to government figures. Aid groups are trying to help women and girls enter the IT world by teaching them about blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. Timothy Obiezu reports from Abuja. Camera: Emeka Gibson.
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U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on Monday unveiled a White House plan to build 500,000 new electric vehicle (EV) charging stations across the country, part of President Joe Biden’s goal of making the vehicles more accessible for both local and long-distance trips. 

Harris made the announcement during a ceremony at an EV charging facility in suburban Maryland outside the U.S. capital, Washington.

“There can be no doubt: The future of transportation in our nation and around the world, is electric,” Harris said, adding that the nation’s ability to manufacture, charge and repair electric vehicles will help determine the health of U.S. communities, the strength of the nation’s economy and the sustainability of the planet. 

The EV Charging Plan takes $5 billion from the infrastructure law signed last month and allocates it to states to build a nationwide network of charging stations. The law also provides an additional $2.5 billion for local grants to support charging stations in rural areas and in disadvantaged communities. 

In a statement, the White House also announced it will establish on Tuesday a Joint Office of Energy and Transportation, leveraging the resources from each of the departments to implement the EV charging network and other electrification provisions in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. 

The White House says the goal of the plan is to speed up the adoption of electric vehicles for consumers and commercial fleets. They network as planned would reduce emissions and help meet the goal of net-zero emissions by no later than 2050.

Biden has established another ambitious goal of having electric vehicles account for 50% of all vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2030. Last year, industry experts said sales of fully electric vehicles accounted for about 2% of vehicles sold in the U.S. 

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse. 

 
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South Korea says it will formally apply to join a regional free trade agreement in an effort to boost trade and expand its presence in the global economy.

Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki said Monday that Seoul has begun the process to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). It was formed in 2018 as a successor to the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiated during the administration of former U.S. President Barack Obama in an effort to blunt China’s growing economic clout in the region. His successor, Donald Trump, withdrew the U.S. from the TPP shortly after taking office in 2017.

Signatories to the CPTPP include Canada, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru and Singapore.

South Korea’s change of heart comes three months after Beijing applied to join the 11-nation regional trade pact, with Taiwan following suit just days later. Seoul is also planning to join the 15-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RECEP), a Beijing-led free trade agreement that includes Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the Philippines. 

South Korea has been reluctant to join multi-nation free trade agreements because of opposition by the country’s agricultural sector due to fear of foreign competition. 
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More U.S. drivers could find themselves stuck on snowy highways or have their travel delayed this winter due to a shortage of snowplow drivers — a reality that could hit home Friday as winter storms start dumping snow from the Intermountain West to the Upper Great Lakes.

States from Washington to Pennsylvania, including Montana and Wyoming in the Rocky Mountains, are having trouble finding enough people willing to take the comparatively low-paying jobs that require a Commercial Driver’s License and often entail working at odd hours in dangerous conditions.

“We want the traveling public to understand why it could take longer this season to clear highways during winter storms,” said Jon Swartz, the maintenance administrator for the Montana Department of Transportation, which is short about 90 drivers. “Knowing this helps motorists to plan ahead and adjust or even delay travel plans.”

The labor shortage and lingering concerns about the pandemic have left employers scrambling to find enough school bus drivers, waiters, cooks and even teachers. The shortage comes as the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level in 52 years and some are seeking a better work-life balance.

Several states are either already feeling the crunch or could be soon: Heavy snow is predicted in the coming days in large swaths of the country, including Utah and Colorado, where more than a foot (30 centimeters) is forecast in higher elevations. Over a half a foot could drop in parts of Nebraska and Iowa. Parts of Nevada and New Mexico also expect winter storms.

State transportation departments say there are several reasons for a lack of snowplow drivers: the record low unemployment rate, an aging workforce and an increased demand for diesel mechanics and CDL drivers in other industries. Private companies can also be more nimble — raising salaries and offering bonuses to drivers — than state agencies, which usually have to get legislative approval to change salaries.

“Everyone’s sort of competing for the same group of workers and private companies can often offer higher salaries than the state government,” said Barbara LaBoe, spokesperson for Washington state’s Department of Transportation.

Along with the competitive market, LaBoe said Washington also lost 151 winter operations workers who did not want to comply with the state’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

One of the main competitors for states seeking workers with a Commercial Driver’s License are private trucking companies that have been raising driver pay, in some cases several times this year, to fill their own shortages and meet the increasing demand to move freight and clear supply chain bottlenecks.

The American Trucking Associations estimates there will be a record shortage of just over 80,000 drivers this year, and that doesn’t include the shortfall in drivers for school buses, public transportation or snowplows.

The ATA says the shortage has many roots, including many drivers nearing retirement age, the pandemic causing some to leave the industry and training schools churning out fewer new drivers in 2020. Others may leave the industry because they don’t like being away from home while an increase in the number of states legalizing marijuana leads to more drivers being unable to pass a drug test, the ATA says.

Some states are willing to hire snowplow drivers and pay for their CDL training, but it’s not likely those hires will be ready to work this winter, officials said.

Some snowplow drivers work year-round in highway maintenance jobs, while seasonal workers are hired to fill the additional shifts in the winter.

The shortage is leading states to make plans to shift mechanics and other full-time employees who have Commercial Driver’s Licenses into plows, which can cause problems if a plow needs maintenance work and the mechanic is out driving.

Wyoming has priorities for which roads will be plowed first and for how many hours per day plows will operate on each roadway. Interstate 80, the major east-west corridor across the southern part of the state, can be plowed around the clock while plowing stops on other roads, such as Interstates 90 and 25, between midnight at 4 a.m. Those guidelines may come into play more this year, said Luke Reiner, director of Wyoming’s Department of Transportation.

In Washington, LaBoe said some roads and mountain passes will be closed longer than usual during and after significant storms and some roads may not receive the same level of service.

Brief or isolated storms won’t cause problems in most states, in part because departments can move drivers and equipment around based on the weather forecast.

“If we have a series of storms over several days or if it hits the whole state at once, (the shortage) is going to become more evident because we don’t have as deep a bench,” LaBoe said.

Washington is still short about 150 seasonal and full-time workers, but things have improved since October when it was short 300 workers.

Even if states are able to hire drivers with commercial licenses, they still have to train them to run a snowplow and load the truck with salt and sand before learning a route.

“When you’re plowing the road you need to know where the bridge abutment is and where the expansion joints are so you don’t hook that with a plow,” LaBoe said.

Pennsylvania is short 270 permanent positions and 560 temporary ones, but the Department of Transportation said that doesn’t mean the roads will be treacherous this winter.

“Our goal is to keep roads safe and passable rather than completely free of ice and snow,” said Alexis Campbell, spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. The roads will be cleared once the snow stops, she said.

Ease of travel is important to businesses. Capitol Courier has contracts with deadlines to deliver electronic replacement parts from their warehouse in Helena, Montana, to about 30 businesses around the state as soon as they call.

“The roads are critical to what we do,” said Shawn White Wolf, co-manager of Capitol Courier.

Snowplow drivers are devoted to their jobs, understanding their work is critical to the safety of the traveling public and to emergency responders, said Rick Nelson director of the winter maintenance technical service program for the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.

Still, he understands that convincing newcomers “to be out there in the worst conditions” can be difficult.

Nelson said the shortage means states will be shifting resources when they can and making sure roads are clear during times of peak demand while “you try to recruit, get out there and beat the bushes and convince folks that jumping in a plow in the middle of the night at Christmastime is a good career choice.”
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The price of U.S. consumer goods, such as food, fuel and rent, rose at the fastest pace since 1982 in November, according to a Department of Labor report Friday.

The 6.8% increase was the highest since June of 1982. The November rate follows a 6.2% increase in October.

Even with more volatile items such as food and energy stripped out, core inflation was up 4.9%, the biggest increase since 1991.

Energy prices in the United States surged by 3.5% in November and are up more than 33% for the year. Gasoline, for example, is 58% higher than it was a year ago.

The price of food has risen by 6.1% over the past year, and the price of used cars and trucks is up 31% for the year.

The steep surge in the cost of everyday goods has hurt lower income workers the most and is negating wage gains seen as employers try to lure Americans back into the workforce with higher wages.

The Biden administration blames COVID-19 pandemic-related economic disruptions for the inflation surge, while Republicans say price increases are being caused by massive government spending in response to the pandemic.

Inflation threatens Biden’s signature “Build Back Better” $1.7 trillion spending bill, which was passed by the House of Representatives and is being considered by the Senate.

Democratic Senator Joe Manchin this week warned against flooding the market with more money while speaking at a CEO summit sponsored by The Wall Street Journal newspaper.

Many economists think persistent inflation could also influence the U.S. central bank’s future actions. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell once called inflation “transitory,” but two weeks ago signaled the Fed may have to act quickly to raise interest rates to restrain rising costs.

Some information in this report comes from The Associated Press.
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The U.S. Senate took a step toward raising the federal government’s $28.9 trillion debt limit on Thursday when it voted to limit debate on the first of two necessary measures, as the Treasury Department urged action by next week. 

Fourteen Republican senators joined the Senate’s 48 Democrats and two independents in voting to advance the first of two bills needed to increase the Treasury Department’s borrowing authority under a deal crafted by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican Leader Mitch McConnell. 

The Senate voted 64-36 to clear the way for passage of the bill setting up the fast-track procedure. 

The chamber could vote on the bill itself, which sets the fast-track rules to raise the debt limit, as early as Friday. If that bill passes, both chambers of Congress would need to vote next week on a second bill actually raising the debt limit. 

President Joe Biden is expected to sign both bills into law once they pass. 

The House of Representatives on Tuesday approved this first bill to sidestep the Senate’s “filibuster ” rule and ultimately raise federal borrowing authority by a simple majority vote. 

“I’m optimistic that after today’s vote we will be on a glide-path to avoid a catastrophic default,” Schumer said in a speech to the Senate. 

The Schumer-McConnell deal on the debt ceiling is contained in legislation that would avoid funding cuts for Medicare, the government health insurance program for the elderly, which has wide bipartisan support. 

The deal comes just two months after Congress agreed on a short-term lift to the debt ceiling, to avert an unprecedented default by the federal government on its obligations, which would have catastrophic implications for the world economy. 

Republicans have been trying to withhold their votes for more borrowing authority, contending the increase would smooth the way for passage of President Joe Biden’s $1.75 trillion “Build Back Better” domestic investment bill, which they oppose. 

Democrats note that the legislation is needed to finance debt largely incurred during Donald Trump’s administration, when Republicans willingly jacked up Washington’s credit card bill by about $7.85 trillion, partly through sweeping tax cuts and spending to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. 

But most Senate Republicans, looking to score political points by blaming Democrats for spending, opposed the deal. Republicans contend that “irresponsible,” “socialist” spending pushed by Biden is fueling the need for the debt limit increase. 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has urged Congress to act by Dec. 15, and the Bipartisan Policy Center think thank warned last week that the government could risk default by late this month if Congress does not act. 

Democrats noted that they had voted in the past to authorize debt ceiling hikes to cover Republican measures, such as the Trump tax cuts. 

The draft bill still must plug in a dollar amount for the new statutory debt limit, which likely is being calibrated to give the government enough borrowing authority to extend beyond next November’s congressional elections. 

“Every single Senate Democrat will have to put their name to the gigantic dollar amount of debt they’re prepared to pile on the American people,” McConnell said in a speech on Wednesday.
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The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits plunged last week to the lowest level in 52 years, more evidence that the U.S. job market is recovering from last year’s coronavirus recession.

Unemployment claims dropped by 43,000 to 184,000 last week, the lowest since September 1969, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, fell to below 219,000, lowest since the pandemic hit the United States hard in March 2020.

Overall, just under 2 million Americans were collecting traditional unemployment benefits the week that ended Nov. 27.

Weekly claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, have fallen steadily most of the year since topping 900,000 one week in early January. They are now below to the 220,000-a-week level typical before the coronavirus pandemic slammed the U.S. economy in March 2020; COVID-19 forced consumers to stay home as health precaution and businesses to close or reduce hours and to lay off staff. In March and April last year, employers shed a staggering 22.4 million jobs.

Massive government aid and the rollout of vaccines helped revive the economy and the job market by giving Americans the confidence and financial wherewithal to go on a shopping spree, often online, for goods such as lawn furniture and coffee makers. Since April last year, the United States has regained nearly 18.5 million jobs. But the economy is still 3.9 million jobs short of where it stood in February 2020 and the prospects for the economy remain vulnerable to COVID variants such as omicron.

The Labor Department reported last week that employers added a disappointing 210,000 jobs last month. But the report also showed that the unemployment rate dropped to a pandemic low of 4.2% from 4.6% in October.  

And the department reported Wednesday that employers posted a near-record 11 million job openings in October. It also said that 4.2 million people quit their jobs — just off the September record of 4.4 million — a sign that they are confident enough in their prospects to look for something better.

Until Sept. 6, the federal government had supplemented state unemployment insurance programs by paying an extra payment of $300 a week and extending benefits to gig workers and to those who were out of work for six months or more. Including the federal programs, the number of Americans receiving some form of jobless aid peaked at more than 33 million in June 2020.
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India has posted the fastest pace of growth among major economies, raising hopes of a revival in its pandemic-hit economy. But fears of the omicron variant have triggered concerns of whether the pace can be sustained even as economists warn that unemployment levels are still high in a country where millions lost jobs during the pandemic. 

India’s gross domestic product grew 8.4% from July to September this year compared to the same period last year, according to a government report.

While economies worldwide were hit hard due to the pandemic, India slipped into its worst recession in four decades last year with its economy shrinking by 7.3% after the Indian government imposed one of the toughest lockdowns in the world.

But there has been a significant turnaround in recent months with growth returning to levels before the pandemic, according to officials. “Data clearly shows that corporate income and profit are above the pre-pandemic level,” K.V. Subramanian, chief economist at the Finance Ministry said as he released the latest economic data. 

The International Monetary Fund, IMF, has forecast growth of 9.5% for India in 2021 — if the growth stays on track, it would be fastest among major economies in the world, surpassing its projections of about 8% for China. 

“What happens in India has a big impact, both in the region and in the world,” Luis Breuer, the IMF’s senior resident representative to India, said last month. “You’re talking about a large slice of humanity and the global economy.”

Normalcy returning 

Experts say the opening of the economy as the pandemic waned after a deadly second wave in April and May and significant progress in the country’s vaccination program have helped the revival.

India has lifted all restrictions in recent months as cases decline to their lowest in a year and a half — the country has been reporting less than 10,000 new infections a day in recent weeks. 

After spending a year indoors, people keen to get a sense of normalcy have crowded markets, hotels are booked as vacationers head out for holidays and streets in mega cities like Delhi and Mumbai are choked with traffic. That is helping a country whose economy is driven largely by millions of middle-class consumers. 

India’s recent festive season saw shops and malls do brisk business. “We did no business at all for nearly a year, but customers have started ordering clothes from us since August this year,” Geeta Mehra, a boutique clothes retailer, told VOA. “Weddings that had been on hold for the last year and a half are now taking place which has resulted in good sales for us.”

However, she is cautious about increasing stocks and employing more people as fears of the new Omicron variant raise fresh concerns about the pandemic. India is now among nearly 30 countries where it has been found. Health authorities had reported 23 cases by Tuesday. 

Uneven recovery 

Some businesses, however, have still to recover. “Our business is only 20% of the pre-pandemic levels,” said Sanjay Kapur, a stationery retailer since the last 22 years. “Stationery requirement has become minimal as offices and schools are still closed and most work is done online. We can only wait and watch.

The threat of the Omicron variant looms large over people like Kapur — they worry it may keep offices and schools shut for longer than expected. And although the government has said it is not imposing any additional restrictions, curbs on international travel have been imposed. 

Experts have described the recovery as uneven and fractured. 

“The organized sector is looking up whereas the unorganized sector is not doing so well. Even within the organized sector some economic activities are performing better than others,” said Santosh Mehrotra, professor and chairperson of the Centre for Informal Sector and Labor Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University. He points out that while sectors like manufacturing and technology have recovered, hospitality and retail that are among the biggest job creators, are still struggling. 

Chavi Kasaudhan got a job at a retail store at Delhi airport recently. “I was lucky to get a break but many of those who did a six-month course in hospitality and retail with me are still waiting,” the 20-year-old said. 

While jobs have been returning, millions are still struggling to find work, especially in the country’s vast informal sector that includes farm workers, street vendors, laborers, and rickshaw pullers. 

Economists say official numbers do not reflect how this sector, where an estimated 90% of people work, is faring.

“What is not being captured by data is the fact that unemployment levels are very high,” Jawaharlal Nehru University’s Mehrotra said. Mehrotra estimates that the pandemic has added an additional 15 million to the number of poor people in the country, which represents a reversal of gains made in recent decades in alleviating poverty. 

Still, there is optimism that Asia’s third largest economy is turning a corner, and the stress of the pandemic could be subsiding.

Suhasini Sood contributed to this story.
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Lebanon’s dire economic crisis is threatening to cancel Christmas for many people. The Lebanese currency has lost more than 93 percent of its value against the dollar over the past two years and soaring inflation is making it difficult for ordinary people to buy food and medicine, let alone Christmas trees and gifts.

With Christmas trees now costing between $80 to $120 dollars, almost double a Lebanese worker’s monthly salary, some are resorting to telling their children that Santa Claus is sick this year and won’t be able to bring them presents simply because parents are unable to buy the gifts. Most are struggling just to purchase food and medicine.

The U.N. children’s agency, UNICEF, reports that 77 percent of Lebanese families say they lack sufficient food and 60 percent of them only buy food by running up unpaid bills or borrowing money.

Political analyst Dania Koleilat Khatib, with the Issam Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut, said to VOA, “…although you may see some people shopping and think things are well, that’s not the situation for most Lebanese.”

“People who live from paycheck to paycheck, they are suffering big time. These people will not see Santa, will not see Christmas, will not see anything. You get shocked when you go to restaurants. The people in restaurants, they represent how much of the Lebanese society? They’re not 1 or 2 percent. The majority are very poor,” said Khatib.

But in the upscale northern seaside resort of Batroun, it’s hard to see Lebanon’s financial woes. It has just opened its first Christmas market which organizer Francois Baraket said he hopes will rival those in Europe in years to come. It has drawn Lebanese with money to spend, he told Dubai’s The National newspaper.

Dania Koleilat Khatib said those Lebanese who have money now receive help with hard currency from family abroad or are those who work with international agencies. Others may have been lucky enough to withdraw U.S. currency from the bank before the government froze dollar accounts. Christmas will also witness a number of Lebanese expats return home to celebrate with family.

“At Christmas you will see celebration because a lot of people are coming from outside. But that doesn’t mean that people are better off. This is always the issue with Lebanon because you have a lot of expats coming in and out. If we didn’t have this influx of hard currency from outside into Lebanon, people would be ‘dog eat dog.’ It would be much worse,” said Khatib.

The U.N’s World Food Program estimates that poverty in Lebanon has almost doubled this past March, affecting three million people compared with 1.7 million in 2020.
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U.S. senators struck a deal Tuesday to create a one-time law allowing Democrats to lift the nation’s borrowing authority and avoid a credit default without requiring votes from the opposition Republicans. 

The House of Representatives approved the fix in an evening vote. It is expected to be approved by the Senate in the coming days, allowing lawmakers to avert the crisis with a simple 51-vote majority in the upper chamber. 

The Bipartisan Policy Center said last week it expected the United States would no longer be able to meet its debt repayment obligations between December 21 and January 28. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has put the deadline even earlier: next Wednesday. 

“Nobody wants to see the U.S. default on its debts. As Secretary Yellen has warned, a default could eviscerate everything we’ve done to recover from the COVID crisis,” Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on the floor of the chamber. 

“We don’t want to see that, I don’t believe we will see that, and I continue to thank all my colleagues for cooperating in good faith to preserve the full faith and credit of the United States,” he said. 

America spends more money than it collects through taxation so it borrows money via the issuing of government bonds, seen as among the world’s most reliable investments. 

Around 80 years ago lawmakers introduced a limit on how much federal debt could be accrued. 

The ceiling has been lifted dozens of times to allow the government to meet its spending commitments, usually without drama and with the support of both parties, and stands around $29 trillion. 

Democratic leaders have spent weeks underlining the havoc that a default would have wrought, including the loss of an estimated 6 million jobs and $15 trillion in household wealth, as well as increased costs for mortgages and other borrowing. 

But Republicans in both chambers of Congress initially objected to helping raise the limit, saying they refused to support what they called President Joe Biden’s reckless taxing and spending plans. 

In reality, both parties see raising the borrowing cap as politically toxic, and Republicans hope to make it an issue in the 2022 midterm election campaign. 

Under the complex, multistep compromise proposed Tuesday, the Republicans can essentially stand on the sidelines, offering help to create the new law but offering no votes to increase the limit.

Congress would have to specify the exact dollar amount of a new borrowing cap — likely upwards of $30 trillion.

After the Senate has followed the House in approving the new process, both chambers are expected to pass the extension by simple majority votes ahead of the deadline. 

Crucially, Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Republicans in the Senate, is backing the process. 

“I think this is in the best interest of the country, by avoiding default,” he told reporters when questioned about the convoluted approach. 

 
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After lurching from deadline to deadline, China Evergrande Group is again on the brink of default, with pessimistic comments from the property developer raising expectations of direct state involvement and a managed debt restructuring.

Having made three 11th-hour coupon payments in the past two months, Evergrande will again face the end of a 30-day grace period on Monday, with dues this time at $82.5 million. 

But a statement late on Friday saying creditors had demanded $260 million and that it could not guarantee enough funds for coupon repayment prompted authorities to summon its chairman – and wiped over a sixth off its stock’s market value on Monday.

Evergrande was once China’s top-selling developer but is nowgrappling with more than $300 billion in liabilities, meaning a collapse could ripple through the property sector and beyond.

Its statement on Friday was followed by one from authorities in its home province of Guangdong, saying they would send a team to Evergrande at the developer’s request to oversee risk management, strengthen internal control and maintain operations.

The central bank, banking and insurance regulator and securities regulator also released statements, saying risk to the broader property sector could be contained.

Short-term risk from a single real estate firm will not undermine market funding in the medium or long term, said the People’s Bank of China. Housing sales, land purchases and financing “have already returned to normal in China”, it said.

Analysts said authorities’ concerted effort signaled Evergrande has likely already entered a managed debt-asset restructuring process to reduce systemic risk.

Morgan Stanley in a report said such a process would involve coordination between authorities to maintain normal operation of property projects, and negotiation with onshore creditors to ensure financing for projects’ development and completion.

Regulators would also likely facilitate debt restructuring discussion with offshore creditors after business operations start to stabilize, the U.S. investment bank said. 

After the flurry of statements, Evergrande’s stock slid as much as 15% on Monday to HK$1.92 – its lowest since May 2010.

Its November 2022 bond – one of two bonds that could go into default on non-payment on Monday – was trading at the distressed price of 20.787 U.S. cents on the dollar, compared with 20.083 cents at the end of Friday.

Liquidity squeeze

Evergrande has been struggling to raise capital by disposing of assets, and the government has asked Chairman Hui Ka Yan to use his wealth to repay company debt.

The firm is just one of a number of developers facing an unprecedented liquidity squeeze due to regulatory curbs on borrowing, causing a string of offshore debt defaults, credit-rating downgrades and sell-offs in developers’ shares and bonds.

To prevent further turmoil, regulators since October have urged banks to relax lending for developers’ normal financing needs and allowed more real estate firms to sell domestic bonds.

To free up funds at banks, Premier Li Keqiang on Friday said China will cut the bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR) “in a timely way” to increase support for the real economy.

Still, the government may have to significantly step up policy-easing measures in the spring to prevent a sharp downturn in the property sector, Japanese investment bank Nomura said in a report published on Sunday. 

Contagion

Smaller developer Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd on Monday said it had defaulted on a $170 million U.S. dollar bond due Dec. 5 “owing to liquidity issues arising from the 

adverse impact of a number of factors including the macroeconomic environment and the real estate industry.”

The delinquency will trigger cross-default provisions under certain other debt instruments, the developer said.

Its shares fell nearly 3%.

Last week, Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd – the largest offshore debtor among Chinese developers after Evergrande – said it had failed to secure approval from offshore bondholders to carry out an exchange offer of its 6.5% offshore bonds due Dec. 7, without which it said it would risk default.

The developer has begun talks with some of the offshore bondholders to extend the deadline for the $400 million debt repayment, sources have told Reuters.

Smaller rival China Aoyuan Property Group Ltd last week also said creditors have demanded repayment of $651.2 million due to a slew of credit-rating downgrades, and that it may be unable to pay due to a lack of liquidity.
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The Turkish lira has been hitting new record lows against the U.S. dollar in recent days. That is raising alarm among Turkish businessowners. VOA’s Ezel Sahinkaya has this report, narrated by Begum Ersoz.
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U.S. employers added only 210,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department reported Friday, dampening hopes the economy is rebounding from a summer slowdown sparked by the highly contagious delta variant of the coronavirus and supply chain disruptions.

Millions of Americans laid off during the pandemic-induced recession remained without work last month despite employers offering higher wages, expiring unemployment benefits and schools reopening. This has fueled questions among economists about whether some people are willing to reenter the workforce during the ongoing pandemic.

The report fell far short of expectations of about 550,000 new jobs last month, according to economists polled by Reuters. Last month’s 210,000 new jobs were also far fewer than the 546,000 jobs added in October and the year’s monthly average of 555,000. There were 194,000 new hires in September.

The unemployment rate in November fell to 4.2% from 4.6% the month before, inching closer to the pre-pandemic rate of 3.5 percent, the lowest rate in more than 50 years.

“Our economy is markedly stronger than it was a year ago and today the incredible news (is) that our unemployment rate has fallen to 4.2%. At this point in the year, we’re looking at the sharpest one-year decline in unemployment ever. Simply put, America is back to work,” U.S. President Joe Biden said at the White House Friday.

“The unemployment rate has now fallen by more than two percentage points since I took office,” Biden added. “That’s the fastest decline in a single year on record.”  

November’s modest job gains and the spread of the omicron variant of COVID-19 could weaken expectations for stronger economic growth in the fourth quarter. The economy is currently expected to grow at a 7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, a strong rebound from the 2.1% pace in the third quarter, when the delta variant stymied growth.

While little is known about the omicron variant, some slowdown in hiring is likely, considering the delta variant triggered the slowest pace of economic growth in more than a year last quarter.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press and Reuters.
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Chinese authorities have approved the Boeing 737 MAX to resume service after making a series of safety adjustments, removing a major uncertainty surrounding the American aviation giant’s comeback after a lengthy slump.

A directive from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) deeming the model “airworthy” sets the stage for the jet to return to airline schedules in the country next year, following months of negotiations between Beijing and Boeing.

Shares of Boeing rocketed after the decision, which also clears the way for it to deliver more than 100 MAX aircraft to Chinese carriers that were produced during the more than two years the plane was grounded in China following two deadly crashes.

The CAAC said in a further statement Friday that it expects “commercial operation of the existing domestic fleet will be resumed progressively at the end of this year or early next year.”

News of the decision had initially emerged on Thursday, when AFP saw a government directive showing China was giving the green light to the 737 MAX after taking “corrective actions.” The CAAC statement on Friday confirmed the decision.

The CAAC’s move also confirms a place for the US plane maker in the country — an essential growth market in aviation — despite persistent trade and political tensions between Washington and Beijing.

“This will give Boeing the assurance to begin to ramp plane production back up,” said Michel Merluzeau, an analyst at AIR consultancy, adding that the action amounts to the “light at the end of the tunnel” for the MAX.

Protracted process

China is the last major travel market to bring the MAX back into use after it was grounded globally in March 2019 following two crashes that together claimed 346 lives.

Investigators said a main cause of both tragedies was a faulty flight handling system known as the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS).

Boeing won approval from the United States in November 2020 and from most other leading aviation authorities soon after to resume service.

But the process was far more protracted in China, with the CAAC only conducting a test flight of the model in the third quarter of this year.

Analysts said delays may have been a consequence of tensions with Washington.

But on Thursday, Chinese authorities gave the green light after requiring upgrades to planes, including installing new software programs to address the defect and updating the flight manual.

“After conducting sufficient assessment, CAAC considers the corrective actions are adequate to address this unsafe condition,” said an airworthiness directive from the authority.

The directive means there are no remaining regulatory obstacles for the MAX to return to the skies in China, although the aviation authority cautioned that it does not mean the planes will immediately return to use.

“Obtaining airworthiness is just one of the most basic tasks,” said the CAAC on Friday.

It added that domestic airlines will still have to “complete aircraft modification, restoration of parked aircraft, pilot training and so on.”

Symbiotic relationship

Boeing cheered the decision.

“CAAC’s decision is an important milestone toward safely returning the 737 MAX to service in China,” Boeing in China said in a statement to AFP.

“Boeing continues to work with regulators and our customers to return the airplane to service worldwide.”

A Boeing spokesperson said more than 180 countries have now allowed the MAX to return to service, with Indonesia, where the first crash took place, and Russia among those that have yet to do so.

Burkett Huey, an analyst at Morningstar, said Boeing still faces some important hurdles such as restoring deliveries of the 787 Dreamliner plane, its other top-selling aircraft, and beefing up its order book following cancelations and the hit from the COVID-19 aviation downturn.

But Huey called the CAAC move “very good news and very consequential” for Boeing.

Uncertainty about the timing for Beijing to approve the MAX have contributed to the company’s travails in recent months.

China also has high hopes for developing its own aviation industry, with attention focused on Comac’s C919 narrow-body plane, a potential rival to Airbus and Boeing aircraft.

But analysts do not believe Beijing will be able to meet its targets solely with Chinese companies.

“It would be difficult for China to grow as much as it can without Boeing for at least the next 10 years,” Huey said, adding that the CAAC’s action “is unlocking access to a really critical market” for Boeing.

Boeing shares finished with a gain of 7.5% at $202.38, the biggest winner in the Dow.

 
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