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RIYADH — Saudi Arabia is “committed” to maintaining crude capacity at 12.3 million barrels per day, Energy Minister Prince Abulaziz bin Salman said on Tuesday.

Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference in Riyadh, he said the world’s largest oil exporter would maintain its crude targets while also pursuing its climate aims.

“We will monetize every molecule of energy this land has, period,” Prince Abdulaziz said. That policy would be carried out hand in hand with other goals, such as emission reduction, he added.

“We are committed to maintaining 12.3 million (barrels per day) of crude capacity and we are proud of that,” he said.

He was speaking ahead of an announcement, expected on Tuesday, about a carbon credit exchange involving the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund.

Saudi Arabia backed a deal at last year’s U.N. climate conference, COP28, giving countries more leeway to follow their own pathways to cleaner sources of energy.

More than 100 countries had lobbied at that summit, held in the United Arab Emirates, for the “phase out” of fossil fuels, but faced opposition from the Saudi-led oil producer group OPEC, which argued that the world can cut emissions without shunning specific fuels.

“We are not ashamed of our record when it comes to emissions,” Prince Abdulaziz told the FII conference. “We are proud of it, but the pundits try to create a smoke screen not to allow us to be on the so-called higher moral ground.”

He also said Saudi Arabia would update its national climate pledge under the Paris Agreement to raise its target.

“We ensure we will have a refreshed NDC [Nationally Determined Contribution] next year, and I can guarantee you out of knowing the number will be higher.”

 
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Nairobi — Bioeconomy is the production, use, and conservation of biological resources to produce goods that sustain communities. A new report says the promotion of bioeconomy as a way to deal with climate change holds promise for rural areas in Africa and elsewhere.

As the world grapples with how to cope with the effects of climate change on the environment, food production, and people’s livelihoods, experts say the bioeconomy can offer solutions to those challenges and help achieve sustainable development.

Their conclusions are presented in a new report, The State of the Bioeconomy in East Africa Report 2024, authored by the Stockholm Environment Institute, the East African Science and Technology Commission, and the International Center of Insects Physiology and Ecology, or ICIPE.

The authors say the use of renewable biological resources, and the application of related knowledge, science and technology offers a chance to drive economic growth and — most importantly — boost food security while protecting the environment.

For example, Regina Muthama is a farmer who trains other farmers in her community in Eastern Kenya, where there is often a shortage of rain to grow food. She says she plants several types of crops and trees together to maximize the water supply, and so the trees can shade crops from the strong African sun.

“We are growing trees, which we integrate with crops so that when we water the trees, we can also water the crops that can give us food. The kind of trees we plant can mitigate climate change, prevent soil erosion, and give us good oxygen,” she said.

Experts say Eastern Africa is home to vast agricultural fertile lands, biodiversity, and a youthful population, which positions the region as a leader in bioeconomy innovation.

Abdou Tenkouano is the director general of ICIPE Kenya. Speaking at the Global Biodiversity Summit (GBS) this week in Nairobi, he said bioeconomy development needs to provide opportunities for young people, and develop ways to meet people’s food needs.

“We must also meet the employment needs of the youth, who are the largest demographic segment in Africa and the global south,” he said. “We are in a climate crisis, which is now an existential threat. We must adopt new ways of production and consumption that are sustainable. The bioeconomy offers this new model of sustainable economic growth.”

According to the Stockholm Environment Institute, more than 65 percent of people living in Eastern Africa depend on biological resources for food, energy, medicine, and other purposes.

Venter Mwongera is the chairperson of national and international engagements at the Intersectoral Forum on Agrobiodiversity and Agroecology in Kenya. She explains the benefits of embracing the bioeconomy.

“We can continue growing our economy, contributing to GDP and contributing to job creation because these industries that manufacture the produce or products we get from agriculture minimize the emission of greenhouse gases, which means that we will have a cleaner environment. It also means that jobs will be retained and more will be created, and there will also be sustainable food production,” said Mwongera.

The East African Community regional bloc has developed a bioeconomy strategy that aims to have sustainable industrialization, improve food and nutrition security, improve health, and create bio-based products which are derived from plants, animals and microorganisms.

Tenkouano says ICIPE is trying to show the way.

“We develop and deploy nature-positive solutions for insect pests and vector management. We also lead research in insects as alternative sources of protein for food and feed and agents of organic waste conversion,” he said.

Experts say the bioeconomy as a principle is winning supporters. However, a lack of financing, poor infrastructure, low agricultural productivity, and excessive government regulation still present challenges to broader adoption.
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WASHINGTON — The war in Sudan is likely to cause heavy economic damage in neighboring countries, the IMF’s deputy director for Africa, Catherine Pattillo, told AFP.

“What is going on there for the people in Sudan is just so heart wrenching and devastating. For all of the neighboring countries, too,” she said in an interview in Washington ahead of the publication Friday of the International Monetary Fund’s regional outlook for sub-Saharan Africa.

“A number of these countries that are neighbors are also fragile countries with their own challenges,” she said. “And then to be confronted with the refugees, the security issues, the trade issues, is very challenging for their growth.”

The IMF’s report predicted that the Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia and South Sudan could be particularly hard hit by the ongoing conflict in Sudan.

For South Sudan, the situation has become particularly worrying following the loss in February of one of its main sources of income after an oil export pipeline was damaged in Sudan.

The pipeline is crucial for transporting South Sudanese crude oil abroad, which is especially important given that oil accounts for around 90% of the landlocked country’s exports.

The war in Sudan has been raging since April 2023 between the army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, of his former deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is also known as Hemedti.

The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives, according to the United Nations.

More than 10.7 million people have been displaced across the country, and a further 2.3 million have fled to neighboring countries.

The conflict has also exacerbated food insecurity; a famine was declared in July in the Zamzam camp for displaced people near the town of el-Facher, in Darfur.

“You could think of Sudan [and] also some of the security issues in the Sahelian countries, also affecting growth,” Pattillo said. “Those are the internal conflicts.”

At the same time, other “external conflicts” such as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are also affecting the cost of food, fertilizer and energy, she said.

The IMF noted that rising protectionism was also having a negative impact on growth in Africa at a time when trade tensions are translating into tariff hikes between the world’s three most powerful trading blocs: the United States, Europe and China.

The economic slowdown in developed countries and China still represents a major challenge for African countries, the IMF noted, predicting growth in sub-Saharan Africa of 4.2% next year.

This is slightly better than the 3.6% growth expected this year.
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Iranian photographer Tannaz was on her way to Tehran’s airport when European sanctions on flag carrier Iran Air forced her to return home, unable to make it to work in Paris.

It was within hours of the European Union announcing measures last week against prominent Iranian officials and entities, including airlines, accused of involvement in the transfer of missiles and drones for Russia to use in its war against Ukraine.

Tehran has consistently said such accusations were baseless, but with Western governments unconvinced, the latest sanctions went ahead, dealing a blow to Iran’s already embattled airline industry.

Unable to make it to her photoshoot in Paris as Iran Air had grounded all Europe-bound flights over the sanctions, Tannaz was left grappling with the effect on her business, uncertain how she may keep working abroad under the new restrictions.

“Considering the current situation and higher flight price options, I think I will lose many customers,” said the 37-year-old who gave her first name only, fearing repercussions.

With no other Iranian airline serving European destinations, any alternative to the canceled Iran Air route would likely cost her much more and include a layover, increasing travel time.

Many Western and other international airlines had already suspended their Iran services, citing heightened tensions and the risk of regional conflict since the Gaza war broke out more than a year ago.

 Host of challenges

Despite having largely avoided being drawn into the conflict, Iran backs Palestinian group Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States, United Kingdom, European Union and others, and whose October 7, 2023 attack on Israel sparked the war, and has launched two direct attacks on Israel.

The latest missile attack earlier this month, in response to the killing of Tehran-aligned militant leaders and a Revolutionary Guards general, prompted vows of retaliation from Israel, again heightening fears of a broader conflagration that could disrupt air traffic.

Iran Air, far cheaper than its foreign competition, was “the only airline that flew to Europe in our country”, said Maghsoud Asadi Samani of the national airline association.

“With the new European Union sanctions against Iran Air, no Iranian aircraft will fly to Europe,” news agency ILNA quoted Samani as saying.

Earlier Western sanctions on Iran, including those reimposed after the United States withdrew in 2018 from a landmark nuclear deal, have taken a toll, too.

They contributed to soaring inflation, slashing Iranians’ purchasing power, but also heavily restricted the acquisition of aircraft and spare parts, and limited access to maintenance services.

“A significant number of planes in Iran have accordingly been grounded” for years, said economist Danial Rahmat.

Aging aircraft fleets have worsened poor safety standards, part of a host of challenges Iran’s aviation sector has long grappled with.

Economist Said Leylaz said that while sanctions have had a serious impact, airlines’ woes were rooted in mismanagement and corruption.

Going ‘where we’re not sanctioned’

But Iranians have only a few alternatives.

Rahmat said that now, they may have to primarily rely on flights via neighboring countries to reach Europe and other parts of the world.

Not only would it “impose higher costs and longer travel hours on Iranian passengers, but it would also provide an opportunity for airlines from these countries to acquire a larger market share” at the expense of Iranian firms, said Rahmat.

Iran Air still flies to several regional destinations as well as some in Asia. Another company, Mahan Air, goes to Moscow and Beijing several times a week.

Shortly after the latest EU sanctions were announced on October 14, Iran Air set up a daily route to Istanbul “to facilitate travel to Europe and reduce travelers’ worries,” news agency ISNA reported.

Leylaz said that the sanctions would likely boost Iran’s ties with non-Western allies like China.

The demand for flights to east Asia “and outside the European Union… to places where we are not sanctioned is very high,” he added.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has made easing Iran’s economic isolation a key objective, but indirect talks with the United States that could have helped have been suspended over the regional conflict, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

For Tannaz, the photographer, the ability to go abroad is not just a work issue but also a reflection of the state of the country.

“I just wish we could live a normal life,” she said.
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Striking workers’ rejection of planemaker Boeing’s BA.N latest contract offer has created a fresh threat to operations at aerospace suppliers such as family-run Independent Forge.  

If the strike by more than 33,000 U.S. Boeing workers persists another month, the Orange County, California supplier might need to cut its operations from five to three days a week to save money and retain workers, president Andrew Flores said.  

While Independent laid off a few employees already, letting more go is not an appealing option, he said. The 22 workers who remain are critical for the company, especially when the strike eventually ends and demand for its aluminum aircraft parts rebounds.  

“They are the backbone of our shop,” Flores said this week. “Their knowledge, I can’t replace that.”  

Wednesday’s vote by 64% of Boeing’s West Coast factory workers against the company’s latest contract offer, further idling assembly for nearly all of the planemaker’s commercial jets, has created a fresh test for suppliers such as Independent, which opened in 1975.  

Boeing’s vast global network of suppliers that produce parts from sprawling modern factories or tiny garage workshops, was already stressed by the company’s quality-and-safety crisis, which began in January after a mid-air panel blow-out on a new 737 MAX.   

Demand for parts has dropped, hitting suppliers after they spent heavily to meet renewed demand for planes in the post-pandemic era.   

How small suppliers such as Independent navigate the strike, which began on Sept. 13, is expected to affect Boeing’s future ability to bring its plane production back online.   

More job cuts?   

Five Boeing suppliers interviewed by Reuters this week said continuation of the strike would cause them to furlough workers, freeze investment, or consider halting production.  

Boeing declined comment.  

Seattle-area supplier Pathfinder, which runs a project to attract young recruits to aerospace and trains them alongside its skilled workers, will likely need to lay off more employees, CEO Dave Trader said.  

Pathfinder, which let go one-quarter of its 54 workers last month, will also need to send more of its aerospace students back to their high schools, instead of training them in the company’s factories, Trader said.  

Suppliers on a regular call on Thursday with Boeing supply-chain executives said they expect the strike will continue for weeks, one participant told Reuters.  

About 60% of the 2.21 million Americans who work in the aerospace industry have jobs directly linked to the supply chain, according to the U.S. industry group Aerospace Industries Association.  

Those suppliers’ decisions to reduce staffing could create a vicious cycle, as they will put added strain on Boeing’s efforts to restore and eventually increase 737 MAX output above a regulator-imposed cap of 38 after its factories re-open, analysts say.  

“Once we get back, we have the task of restarting the factories and the supply chain, and it’s much harder to turn this on than it is to turn it off,” CEO Kelly Ortberg told an analyst call on Wednesday.  

“The longer it goes on, the more it could trickle back into the supply chain and cause delays there,” Southwest Airlines LUV.N Chief Operating Officer Andrew Watterson said of the strike on Thursday.   

Shares of Boeing suppliers fell on Thursday. Howmet HWM.N lost 2%. Honeywell HON.O and Spirit AeroSystems SPR.N fell 5% and 3%, respectively, following weak results.  

Spirit Aero, Boeing’s key supplier, which has already announced the furlough of 700 workers on the 767 and 777 widebody programs for 21 days, has warned it would implement layoffs should the strike continue past November.  

“It’s starting up the supply chain that is likely to be the biggest worry, especially if they have taken action to cut workers due to a lack of Boeing orders,” Vertical Research Partners analyst Rob Stallard said by email.  

A strained supply chain, Spirit Aero’s challenges and increased regulatory oversight from the Federal Aviation Administration over MAX production, means it could take up to a year from the strike’s end to get 737 output back to the 38-per-month rate, Stallard said. 
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EVERETT, Wash. — Boeing reported a loss of more than $6 billion in the third quarter and immediately turned its attention to union workers who will vote Wednesday whether to accept a company contract offer or continue their crippling strike, which has dragged on for nearly six weeks.  

New CEO Kelly Ortberg laid out his plan to turn Boeing around after years of heavy losses and damage to its reputation.  

In remarks he planned to deliver later Wednesday to investors, Ortberg said Boeing needs “a fundamental culture change in the company.” To accomplish that, he said, company leaders need to spend more time on factory floors to know what is going on and “prevent the festering of issues and work better together to identify, fix, and understand root cause.”  

Ortberg repeated that he wants to “reset” management’s relationship with labor “so we don’t become so disconnected in the future.” He expressed hope that machinists will vote to approve the company’s latest contract offer and end their strike.  

“It will take time to return Boeing to its former legacy, but with the right focus and culture, we can be an iconic company and aerospace leader once again,” he said.  

The strike is an early test for Ortberg, a Boeing outsider who became CEO in August.  

Ortberg has already announced large-scale layoffs and a plan to raise enough cash to avoid a bankruptcy filing. He needs to convince federal regulators that Boeing is fixing its safety culture and is ready to boost production of the 737 Max — a crucial step to bring in much-needed cash.  

Boeing can’t produce any new 737s, however, until it ends the strike by 33,000 machinists that has shut down assembly plants in the Seattle area.  

Ortberg has “got a lot on his plate, but he probably is laser-focused on getting this negotiation completed. That’s the closest alligator to the boat,” said Tony Bancroft, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, a Boeing investor.  

Boeing hasn’t had a profitable year since 2018, and the situation is about to get worse before it gets better.  

Boeing said Wednesday that it lost $6.17 billion in the period ended Sept. 30, with an adjusted loss of $10.44 per share. Analysts polled by Zacks Investment Research were calling for a loss of $10.34 per share.  

Revenue totaled $17.84 billion, matching Wall Street estimates.  

Shares were flat before the opening bell.  

Investors will be looking for Ortberg to project calm, determination and urgency as he presides over an earnings call for the first time since he ran Rockwell Collins, a maker of avionics and flight controls for airline and military planes, in the last decade.  

The biggest news of the day, however, is likely to come Wednesday evening, when the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers reveals whether striking workers are ready to go back to their jobs.  

They will vote at union halls in the Seattle area and elsewhere on a Boeing offer that includes pay raises of 35% over four years, $7,000 ratification bonuses, and the retention of performance bonuses that Boeing wanted to eliminate.  

Boeing has held firm in resisting a union demand to restore the traditional pension plan that was frozen a decade ago. However, older workers would get a slight increase in their monthly pension payouts.  

At a picket line outside Boeing’s factory in Everett, Washington, some machinists encouraged colleagues to vote no.  

“The pension should have been the top priority. We all said that was our top priority, along with wage,” said Larry Best, a customer-quality coordinator with 38 years at Boeing. “Now is the prime opportunity in a prime time to get our pension back, and we all need to stay out and dig our heels in.”  

Best also thinks the pay increase should be 40% over three years to offset a long stretch of stagnant wages, now combined with high inflation.  

“You can see we got a great turnout today. I’m pretty sure that they don’t like the contract because that’s why I’m here,” said another picketer, Bartley Stokes Sr., who started working at Boeing in 1978. “We’re out here in force, and we’re going to show our solidarity and stick with our union brothers and sisters and vote this thing down because they can do better.”
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Ethiopia’s state-owned telecommunications company has started selling shares to the public, in a move aimed at establishing a new national stock market and giving Ethiopians a stake in the company, one of the country’s largest and most profitable.

Ethio Telecom will be the first company listed on the new Ethiopian Securities Exchange, or ESX, which is set to begin operating in November. It will be the country’s first stock market since the 1970s.

Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said last Wednesday that the 130-year-old Ethio Telecom is offering 10% of its shares to the public, 100 million shares in all.

Investors, who must be Ethiopian nationals, can buy up to 3,333 shares of the company at a price of 300 birr, or about $2.50 per share.  

CEO Frehiwot Tamiru said the company will now be called Ethio Telecom PLC.

“Today marks a significant milestone as we launch the sale of Ethio Telecom shares, an essential step in our ongoing journey from political revolution to evolution over the past six years,” Abiy said in a post on X.

He said offering the shares lays “the groundwork for Ethiopia’s stock market and expanding access to ownership in one of the nation’s leading state-owned enterprises, which has now evolved into a share company.”

Ethiopia, once a communist country aligned with the Soviet Union, has gradually allowed greater foreign investment and has slowly privatized state companies, though the government still owns and controls key banking, telecom and transportation firms.

Not everyone sees the sale of Ethio Telecom shares as a sure winner for the Ethiopian public. Ethiopian economist and the executive director of Initiative Africa, Kibur Gena, is concerned that only wealthy Ethiopians will be able to invest in the company.

“This raises questions, in my opinion, of fairness and inclusivity,” he said.  “Such a move might provide, of course, immediate financial benefits to the government; it could also perpetuate inequalities in wealth distribution and restrict, of course, broader public participation in national assets.”

Kibur argues that this approach to privatization could lead to a “deeper wealth gap” and make it harder for the majority of Ethiopians to gain access to economic opportunities.’

“This would certainly contradict the principles of economic equity, which many argue that, when you sell public assets or public resources, they should be distributed more widely to ensure that economic benefits reach marginalized or less affluent groups.”

Ethio Telecom sees it differently.  To help ensure that the share sale is inclusive, investors can buy as few as 33 shares, purchasable for 9,900 birr ($82), according to a company post on Facebook.

However, many Ethiopians don’t even earn $82 in a month, according to World Bank data.

Asked why the privatization of state companies have been slow in Ethiopia, Kibur said it can be seen as a “pragmatic strategy to protect national development goals” and “maintain economic sovereignty.”

“In many ways, privatization may eventually happen and it is happening,’’ he said. ‘’Many economists would argue that it should be done gradually with strong regulatory frameworks in place so that it can ensure that it contributes to long-term development and social stability rather than short-term market efficiency.”

Abiy said Ethio Telecom generated about $829 million in revenue and $239 million in profit during 2023, noting the amount is the most income generated for the state, compared to all other domestic and foreign companies operating in Ethiopia, including commercial banks, combined.

“We are doing this so that people could have confidence in it and join the stock market but it would have continued to be profitable even if we didn’t sell shares,” the prime minister said.

Abiy hinted the government may offer more stakes for sale.

“The sale of shares that we started with Ethio Telecom may continue with Ethiopian Airlines, with hotels and other sectors,” he said.

This story originated in VOA’s Horn of Africa Service. 
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Detroit — Had she wanted to, Michelle Chumley could have afforded a pricey new SUV loaded with options. But when it came time to replace her Chevrolet Blazer SUV, for which she’d paid about $40,000 three years ago, Chumley chose something smaller. And less costly.  

With her purchase of a Chevrolet Trax compact SUV in June, Chumley joined a rising number of buyers who have made vehicles in the below-average $20,000-to-$30,000 range the fastest-growing segment of the nation’s new-auto market.  

“I just don’t need that big vehicle and to be paying all of that gas money,” said Chumley, a 56-year-old nurse who lives outside Oxford, Ohio, near Cincinnati.  

Across the industry, auto analysts say, an “affordability shift” is taking root. The trend is being led by people who feel they can no longer afford a new vehicle that would cost them roughly today’s average selling price of more than $47,000 — a jump of more than 20% from the pre-pandemic average.  

To buy a new car at that price, an average buyer would have to spend $737 a month, if financed at today’s average loan rate of 7.1%, for just under six years before the vehicle would be paid off, according to Edmunds.com, an auto research and pricing site. For many, that is financially out of reach.  

Yet there are other buyers who, like Chumley, could manage the financial burden but have decided it just isn’t worth the cost. And the trend is forcing America’s automakers to reassess their sales and production strategies. With buyers confronting inflated prices and still-high loan rates, sales of new U.S. autos rose only 1% through September over the same period last year. If the trend toward lower-priced vehicles proves a lasting one, more generous discounts could lead to lower average auto prices and slowing industry profits.  

“Consumers are becoming more prudent as they face economic uncertainty, still-high interest rates and vehicle prices that remain elevated,” said Kevin Roberts, director of market intelligence at CarGurus, an automotive shopping site. “This year, all of the growth is happening in what we would consider the more affordable price buckets.”  

Under pressure to unload their more expensive models, automakers have been lowering the sales prices on many such vehicles, largely by offering steeper discounts. In the past year, the average incentive per auto has nearly doubled, to $1,812, according to Edmunds. General Motors has said it expects its average selling price to drop 1.5% in the second half of the year.  

Through September, Roberts has calculated, new-vehicle sales to individual buyers, excluding sales to rental companies and other commercial fleets, are up 7%. Of that growth, 43% came in the $20,000-to-$30,000 price range — the largest share for that price category in at least four years. (For used vehicles, the shift is even more pronounced: 59% sales growth in the $15,000-to-$20,000 price range over that period.)  

Sales of compact and subcompact cars and SUVs from mainstream auto brands are growing faster than in any year since 2018, according to data from Cox Automotive.  

The sales gains for affordable vehicles is, in some ways, a return to a pattern that existed before the pandemic. As recently as 2018, compact and subcompact vehicles — typically among the most popular moderately priced vehicles — had accounted for nearly 35% of the nation’s new vehicle sales.  

The proportion started to fall in 2020, when the pandemic caused a global shortage of computer chips that forced automakers to slow production and allocate scarce semiconductors to more expensive trucks and large SUVs. As buyers increasingly embraced those higher-priced vehicles, the companies posted robust earnings growth.  

In the meantime, they deemed profit margins for lower-prices cars too meager to justify significant production of them. By 2022, the market share of compact and subcompact vehicles had dropped below 30%.  

This year, that share has rebounded to nearly 34% and rising. Sales of compact sedans were up 16.7% through September from 12 months earlier. By contrast, CarGurus said, big pickups rose just under 6%. Sales of large SUVs are barely up at all — less than 1%.  

Ford’s F-Series truck remains the top-selling vehicle in the United States this year, as it has been for nearly a half-century, followed by the Chevrolet Silverado. But Stellantis’ Ram pickup, typically No. 3, dropped to sixth place, outpaced by several less expensive small SUVs: the Toyota RAV4, the Honda CR-V and the Tesla Model Y (with a $7,500 U.S. tax credit).  

The move in buyer sentiment toward affordability came fast this year, catching many automakers off guard, with too-few vehicles available in lower price ranges. One reason for the shift, analysts say, is that many buyers who are willing to plunk down nearly $50,000 for a new vehicle had already done so in the past few years. People who are less able — or less willing — to spend that much had in many cases held on to their existing vehicles for years. The time had come for them to replace them. And most of them seem disinclined to spend more than they have to.  

With loan rates still high and average auto insurance prices up a whopping 38% in the past two years, “the public just wants to be a little more frugal about it,” said Keith McCluskey, CEO of the dealership where Chumley bought her Trax.  

Roberts of CarGurus noted that even many higher-income buyers are choosing smaller, lower-priced vehicles, in some cases because of uncertainties over the economy and the impending presidential election.  

The shift has left some automakers overstocked with too many pricier trucks and SUVs. Some, like Stellantis, which makes Chrysler, Jeep and Ram vehicles, have warned that the shift will eat into their profitability this year.  

At General Motors’ Chevrolet brand, executives had foreseen the shift away from “uber expensive” vehicles and were prepared with the redesigned Trax, which came out in the spring of 2023, noted Mike MacPhee, director of Chevrolet sales operations.  

Trax sales in the U.S. so far this year are up 130%, making it the nation’s top-selling subcompact SUV.  

“We’re basically doubling our (Trax) sales volume from last year,” MacPhee said.   

How long the preference for lower-priced vehicles may last is unclear. Charlie Chesbrough, chief economist for Cox Automotive, notes that the succession of expected interest rates cuts by the Federal Rates should eventually lead to lower auto loan rates, thereby making larger vehicles more affordable.  

“The trends will probably start to change if these interest rates start coming down,” Chesbrough predicted. “We’ll see consumers start moving into these larger vehicles.” 
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Chicagp — U.S. soybean export premiums are at their highest in 14 months, as grain merchants race to ship out a record-large U.S. harvest ahead of the U.S. presidential election and fears of renewed trade tensions with top importer China, traders and analysts said.

Nearly 2.5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export last week, including almost 1.7 million tons bound for China, the most in a year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data released on Monday.

But while this export flurry is a bright spot for U.S. farmers coping with low prices and hefty supplies, sellers say such heightened export demand could be short lived — leaving the U.S. with a glut of oilseeds at a time when prices are hovering near four-year lows.

Tariff threats from presidential hopeful Donald Trump’s campaign speeches are prompting some Chinese importers to shun U.S. shipments from January onward, traders and analysts said.

Instead, these buyers are booking Brazilian soy – and paying up to 40 cents a bushel more than they would in the United States in an earlier-than-normal seasonal shift that’s shrinking the U.S. export window.

“The Chinese don’t know what final costs will be relative to tariffs. They are avoiding the United States from January forward,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co.

Basse said he expects 2024/25 U.S. exports to fall 75 million bushels short of the latest USDA forecast.

How China will respond to tariffs under a new U.S. administration is unclear. Trump has vowed to boost tariffs on Chinese products to around 60%, while challenger Kamala Harris’ plan is to keep tariffs roughly as they are now.

“There’s a threat of tariffs from either party, but more so under a Trump administration,” said Terry Reilly, senior agricultural strategist with Marex. “With Harris, there’s a real possibility that things will revert to the status quo.”

Traders said premiums for immediate shipments of U.S. soy are likely to erode in the coming weeks as near-term demand is met and if trade war concerns limit new buying by China.

Cash premiums for soybean barges delivered to Gulf export terminals by midweek spiked to a 130-cent premium over Chicago Board of Trade November SX24 futures on Monday, reflecting strong demand for immediate supplies, traders said.

The same soybeans, if loaded next month, were available for 27 cents a bushel less, or a savings of roughly $14,000 per fully loaded 1,500-ton barge.
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