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Expect big discounts and other enticements to lure shoppers to stores for Black Friday. But retailers worry those may not be enough.

Consumers are coming under pressure as their savings dwindle and their credit card debt grows. And although they have gotten some relief from easing inflation, many goods and services like meat and rent are still far higher than they were just three years ago.

Barbara Lindquist, 85, from Hawthorne Woods, Illinois, said she and her husband plan to spend about $1,000 for holiday gifts for her three adult children, 13 grandchildren and three great-grandchildren. That’s about the same as last year.

But Lindquist, who continues to work as a pre-school teacher at a local church, said she’ll be more focused on deals given still high prices on meat and other staples. And she plans to buy more gift cards, which she believes will help her stick to her budget.

“I go for value,” said Lindquist, who just picked up discounted sheets and towels at Kohl’s for friends who will be visiting from Panama during the holidays.

Many retailers had already ordered fewer goods for this holiday season and have pushed holiday sales earlier in October than last year to help shoppers spread out their spending. An early shopping push appears to be a trend that only got more pronounced during the pandemic when clogs in the supply network in 2021 made people buy early for fear of not getting what they wanted.

But retailers said that many shoppers will be focusing more on deals and will likely wait until the last minute. Best Buy said it’s pushing more items at opening price points, while Kohl’s has simplified its deals, promoting items under a certain price point like $25 at its stores.

Target said shoppers are waiting longer to buy items. For example, instead of buying sweatshirts or denim back in August or September, they held out until the weather turned cold.

“It’s clear that consumers have been remarkably resilient,” Target’s CEO Brian Cornell told analysts last week. “Yet in our research, things like uncertainty, caution and managing a budget are top of mind.”

The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, expects shoppers will spend more this year than last year, but their pace will slow given all the economic uncertainty.

The group has forecast that U.S. holiday sales will rise 3% to 4% for November through December, compared with a 5.4% growth of a year ago. The pace is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to pre-pandemic 2019. Americans ramped up spending during the pandemic, with more money in their pockets from federal relief checks and nowhere to go during lockdowns. For the holiday 2021 season, sales for the two-month period surged 12.7%.

Online discounts should be better than a year ago, particularly for toys, electronics and clothing, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks online spending. It predicts toys will be discounted on average by 35%, compared with 22% a year ago, while electronics should see 30% cuts, compared with last year’s 27%. In clothing, shoppers will see an average discount of 25%, compared with 19% last year, Adobe said.

Analysts consider the five-day Black Friday weekend — which includes the Monday after the holiday known as Cyber Monday — a key barometer of shoppers’ willingness to spend. And Black Friday is expected to be once again the busiest shopping day of the year, according to Sensormatic Solutions, a firm that tracks store traffic. On average, the top 10 busiest shopping days in the U.S are expected to once again account for roughly 40% of all holiday retail traffic, Sensormatic said.

Marshal Cohen, chief retail adviser at Circana, a market research firm, said he thinks that shoppers will just stick to a list and not buy on impulse. He also believes they will take their time buying throughout the season.

“There’s no sense of urgency,” Cohen said. “The consumers are saying, ‘I will shop when it’s convenient for me.'”
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Shares were mostly lower in Asia on Thursday after a modest advance on Wall Street that kept the market on track for a fourth straight weekly gain.

Markets in Japan and the United States are closed Thursday for holidays.

Oil prices fell about $1 a barrel after OPEC postponed until next week a meeting to discuss production cuts. The oil cartel has been maintaining a tight market for crude oil with production cuts. It is expected to extend those cuts after oil prices have fallen after a spike in the summer to almost $100 a barrel.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.4% to 17,668.99 and the Shanghai Composite index edged 0.2% higher, to 3,048.82. Markets in Greater China have been swaying in reaction to moves by Chinese regulators to prop up the ailing property market.

Shares in troubled developer Country Garden jumped 13% amid reports that it is included on a list of real estate companies eligible for financing support. Sino-Ocean Group Holding’s shares soared 18%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.6% to 7,030.70. In South Korea, the Kospi slipped 2 points lower, to 2,509.73.

Bangkok’s SET lost 0.4% and the Taiex in Taiwan was down 0.2%. The Sensex in Mumbai opened up 0.1%.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 4,556.62. The Dow rose 0.5% to 35,273.03 and the Nasdaq gained 0.5% to 14,265.86.

Trading was muted ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. U.S. markets will be open for half a day on Friday.

Technology and communications services stocks accounted for a big share of the gains for the S&P 500. Microsoft rose 1.3% and Google parent Alphabet added 1.1%.

Broadcom slipped 0.9% after announcing that it expects to complete its $69 billion deal to acquire VMWare on Wednesday after clearing all regulatory hurdles.

A 0.9% drop in oil prices weighed on energy companies. Energy giant Exxon Mobil fell 0.4% and oilfield services company Halliburton dropped 0.8%.

But it lifted airlines and other companies that stand to benefit from lower fuel costs. United Airlines rose 0.9% and American Airlines gained 1.5%. Cruise line operator Carnival rose 1.9%.

Nvidia fell 2.5%, despite handily beating analysts’ profit and revenue forecasts. Export restrictions to China are pressuring the company, though its stock has more than tripled this year amid booming demand for its chips in artificial intelligence applications.

Earnings reports continue to drift in. Department store operator Nordstrom fell 4.6% after trimming its profit forecast for the year. Clothing retailer Guess slumped 12.3% after cutting its financial forecast.

Tractor maker Deere, a bellwether for the agricultural industry, fell 3.1% after giving Wall Street a discouraging financial forecast and industry outlook.

Treasury yields were relatively steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.41% from 4.40% late Tuesday. The yield on the 2-year Treasury slipped to 4.88% from 4.89% late Tuesday.

A consumer sentiment survey by the University of Michigan showed that confidence remains strong. Wall Street has been closely watching consumer spending and confidence reports for more clues on the economy’s path ahead.

Forecasts for a potential recession have been pushed further out into 2024 while also being softened. The rate of inflation continues to ease, consumer spending remains solid and the economy is generally humming along. That has encouraged hopes, and bets, that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and could soon consider cutting rates.

Fed officials, though, have said the outlook for the economy remains uncertain and they’ll make coming decisions on rates based on incoming reports. The Fed will get another big update next week when the government releases its October report for a key inflation measure tracked by the central bank.

In other trading Thursday, U.S. benchmark crude oil lost 91 cents to $76.19 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It dropped 67 cents to $77.10 per barrel on Wednesday.

Brent crude, the international pricing standard, gave up $1.06 to $80.90 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar slipped to 149.12 Japanese yen from 149.56 yen. The euro rose to $1.0905 from $1.0889.
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Nigerian President Bola Tinubu is welcoming new trade agreements with Germany, including a deal that calls for the West African nation to export liquid natural gas.

The signing Tuesday of two memoranda of understanding between Nigerian companies and their German counterparts was the latest in a flurry of investment deals clinched by the Tinubu-led administration in recent months.

The signings come less than two weeks after Nigeria and Saudi Arabia agreed to a deal to revive the country’s nonfunctional refineries.

Tinubu is seeking to make the country attractive to investors in a bid to revive an economy bedeviled by slow growth, rising inflation and huge debt.

Under one deal, Riverside LNG of Nigeria will supply 850,000 tons of liquefied natural gas to Germany each year, working with German firm Johannes Schuetze Energy Import AG. The first delivery of gas is expected in 2026, and the president’s office said gas exports may increase in future years.

Authorities say the deal will make use of natural gas that otherwise would have been flared into the atmosphere. Nigeria has Africa’s largest gas reserves — over 5 trillion cubic meters — but due to poor processing infrastructure, the country burns off much of it every day.

Nigeria also secured a $500 million renewable energy deal with another German company. The deal calls for Germany’s DWS Group to supply funding for renewable energy projects in Nigeria, especially in rural areas.

The president’s spokesperson, Ajuri Ngelale, did not take calls for comment, but he spoke to Lagos-based Channels television about the president’s drive for foreign investments.

“He is personally conducting an open-door policy to investors from around the world, including here in Germany, to ensure that they have direct access to all of the regulators and government officials that will further enhance the environment in which foreign direct investments will be coming into the country,” Ngelale said.

This week Tinubu attended the G20 Compact with Africa Summit in Berlin that experts say is an avenue for African countries to expand their economies through investments and trade.

Emeka Okengwu, an economic analyst, said the investments are important.

“There’s no way $500 million can be wished away. It’s a big deal and should be celebrated,” Okengwu said. “Of course, it’s going to be creating jobs. The base of our productivity is energy. If we have energy, more industries will work, people can produce more, people can get jobs.”

He cautioned, however, “It is one thing to sign paper, and it is another thing to get the deal off the ground.”

Nigerian officials are also seeking investments in the electricity and rail transport sectors.
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Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev bewildered Vladimir Putin and his entourage when, during a November 9 briefing in the Kazakh capital, he addressed the visiting Russian president in his native tongue.

While Tokayev spoke in Kazakh for less than 30 seconds, the gesture made a point: Kazakhstan is not Russia. Moscow is a strategic ally and neighbor with a shared past, but Kazakhstan is a sovereign nation.

“It takes courage,” Azamat Junisbai, professor at Pitzer College, remarked in a posting on X. “That President Tokayev made a point of delivering even a small part of his message in Qazaq is meaningful and appreciated by those who know the context.”

Junisbai’s posting, using the native rather than the more familiar Russian spelling for the language, itself reflected the former Soviet republic’s determination to establish its own identity apart from Moscow.

Changes in perception slow in coming

Tokayev and other Central Asian leaders, especially Uzbekistan’s Shavkat Mirziyoyev, have been traveling the world, signing major investment deals and hosting international summits at home, promoting their development agendas and visions for the region.

Yet many in the West have been slow to acknowledge the trend, including major news publications such as Reuters, Deutsche Welle, The Wall Street Journal and Time, all of which have recently referred to Central Asia as “Russia’s backyard.”

Bloomberg, for example, covered the French president’s visit to Central Asia this month with an attention-grabbing “Macron Lands in Putin’s Backyard Seeking New Friends and Uranium.”

Central Asian and some Western researchers take offense at the phrase, which they increasingly see as evidence of a colonial and condescending way of understanding a region that has its own history, culture and trajectory.

“Bloomberg reducing Kazakhstan/Central Asia to ‘Putin’s backyard’ is just a new level of ignorant, insulting, and unethical journalism,” wrote Akbota Karibayeva, a doctoral student from Kazakhstan at George Washington University, on X.

Asel Doolotkeldieva with the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, also reacted on X: “Bloomberg didn’t even bother to write the country’s name. Kazakhstan is just a ‘backyard.’ So tell me, how this Western imperial discourse is different from the Russian imperial discourse on Central Asia? How better you are?”

Eric Rudenshiold said in a recent Washington roundtable, “Central Asia is not a flyover zone. It is a destination.” The former National Security Council director for Central Asia under the Biden and Trump administrations is now a senior fellow at the Caspian Policy Center in Washington.

Central Asia wants “strong commitment”

Speaking remotely from Tashkent on the same panel discussion, Uzbek scholar Akram Umarov argued that countries seeking to boost relations with Central Asia need to appreciate that emerging identity.

“Central Asia is focused on its own development,” he said. “It wants a strong commitment and longstanding interest from its partners, including the United States.”

Part of that identity is forged by Central Asia’s location in a “tough neighborhood” — landlocked and surrounded by Russia, China, Iran and Afghanistan — while standing at the crossroads between eastern and western Asia.

“We cannot change our geography, which always matters. You deal with what you have, so we need to be pragmatic,” Umarov said.

His Kazakh colleague Iskander Akylbayev added that Central Asia is more than simply an area connecting larger, more powerful states, but one that aims to transform itself into a commercial hub.

Kazakhstan, one of the world’s top 12 oil producers, “does not just want an energy-oriented cooperation. It wants to become a knowledge-based economy,” Akylbayev said, stressing the importance of regional connectivity, which could lure more investment to Central Asia and boost its image.

But the reality is more complicated, according to Uzbek and Kazakh officials, who acknowledge that the region’s leaders are deeply affected by a fear of Russian aggression and a lingering distrust of the U.S. and the EU. Central Asian governments find themselves hedging, seeking an elusive balance.

Speaking on background with VOA about Central Asia’s predicament, a Biden administration official echoed this concern: “How do you move your goods and push for your interests when you are surrounded by Russia, China, Iran and Afghanistan?”

Openings for the U.S.

Rudenshiold sees the five Central Asian states “working together and breaking free from their former isolation to connect to a more global future — a process that has created significant new openings for the United States.”

China, the Gulf states and the EU are promising to invest billions that Central Asians hope will free them from “Russia’s stranglehold.” America’s pledge pales by comparison, Rudenshiold noted in his recent article for the Caspian Policy Center.

Kazakhstan is eager to develop a “Middle Corridor” through which East Asian goods can be transported to the West via its territory, the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus. Double-landlocked Uzbekistan is desperate to access seaports. Turkmenistan wants a trans-Caspian gas pipeline to facilitate the sale of its main resource.

“Washington is missing out on a critical opportunity to assist the region,” Rudenshiold said. “U.S. diplomats and development experts are sending the right messages to Central Asian capitals, but they don’t have sufficient resources to follow up.”

But how to convince the U.S. Congress that the region is worth investing in? It seems to some like a mission impossible, especially when many lawmakers — at least partly informed by reports describing the region as a backyard — still view Central Asian republics as vassals of Russia and China.

U.S. lawmakers could start by scrapping the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, Rudenshiold suggested. The law, adopted nearly 50 years ago originally to restrict trade with the Soviet Union, still blocks some countries from achieving most-favored nation trading status with the United States.

While the U.S. cannot replace Central Asia’s neighbors as trade partners, it can enable Central Asians “to do business on their own terms, not dictated by Moscow and Beijing,” Rudenshiold said.

Rights advocates counter that repealing Jackson-Vanik and awarding more trade benefits would be unwarranted before the region shows more progress on establishing the rule of law. They note that several Central Asian states still pursue authoritarian practices, jail journalists, restrict nongovernmental organizations and religious freedom, and maintain harsh anti-LGBTQ legislation.

Rising regionalism

According to Edward Lemon, president of the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs and professor at Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service, “the most significant change in foreign relations in Central Asia over the past decade has been rising regionalism.”

“Visa regimes have been relaxed, borders reopened, trade surged and intraregional migration has increased,” Lemon told VOA.

However, he says, Central Asian leaders still do not act as a cohesive group. “Doing so would certainly increase their bargaining power.”

Lemon added that while striving to overcome the label of “Russia’s backyard,” “all have maintained strong ties with Moscow, which have not substantially changed since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
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