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BLANTYRE, MALAWI — Malawi, which already is suffering from food shortages, this week banned the import of unmilled maize from Kenya and Tanzania over concerns that the spread of maize lethal necrosis disease could wipe out the staple food.

The ministry of agriculture announced the ban in a statement that said the disease has no treatment and can cause up to 100% yield loss. The statement said maize can be imported only after it is milled, either as flour or grit.

Henry Kamkwamba, an agriculture expert with the International Food Policy Research Institute, told VOA that if the disease were introduced into the country, it would be difficult to contain.

He used the banana bunchy top virus as an example of the potential danger.

“Think of how we lost all of our traditional bananas in the past and now Malawi is a net importer of bananas … due to our lax policies in terms of imports,” he said.

“There are these similar concerns with maize,” he said, with maize being the nation’s main food crop.

Kamkwamba predicted the ban would help Malawi prevent the disease from spreading.

Kenya and Tanzania have long been primary sources of maize for Malawi during periods of food shortage.

Malawi is facing shortages largely because Cyclone Freddy destroyed thousands of hectares of maize last March.

The World Food Program in Malawi and the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee estimate that 4.4 million people — around a quarter of the population — would face food shortages until March 2024.

Grace Mijiga Mhango, the president of the Grain Traders Association of Malawi, said that while she understands the severity of the impact of the maize disease, banning imports at a time of need would likely result in higher costs.

“If we really don’t have enough food, then we are creating another unnecessary maize [price] increase,” she said.

The next alternative for maize imports is South Africa, she said.

“South Africa is quite a distance,” she said, “and they don’t have enough. … It will be expensive.”

Malawi’s government said the ban will be temporary as it explores other preventive measures to combat the spread of maize lethal necrosis disease.
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Immigrants from Belarus, Ukraine and other Eastern European countries are actively exploring the American IT startup market. One immigrant-run venture capital firm is helping them find investments. Evgeny Maslov has the story, narrated by Anna Rice. Camera: Michael Eckels.
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Beijing — China will step up policy adjustments to support an economic recovery in 2024, state media said on Tuesday, following an agenda-setting meeting of the country’s top leaders.

Investors are closely watching for clues on next year’s policy and reform agenda as Beijing has been struggling to spur a post-pandemic economic recovery amid a deepening housing crisis and mounting local government debt.

China will focus on boosting effective demand next year, and make concerted efforts to spur domestic demand, state media said, citing the annual Central Economic Work Conference held from Dec. 11-12, during which top leaders set economic targets for 2024.

“We must introduce more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment,” state media said, quoting top officials led by President Xi Jinping at the meeting.

“It is necessary to strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments of macro policies, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and strengthen innovation and coordination of policy tools.”

The Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, said on Friday that fiscal policy would be moderately strengthened and will be “flexible, moderate, precise, and effective” to help spur the economic recovery.

China plans to implement structural tax and fee cuts and plans a new round of fiscal and tax reforms, state media said, adding that the government will improve the structure of fiscal spending to support strategic tasks.

China will maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and ensure that the scale of social financing and money supply match the expected goals of economic growth and price levels, according to state media.

China will guide financial institutions to increase support for technological innovation, green transformation, inclusive small and micro businesses, and the digital economy.

The government is likely to rely on fiscal stimulus, especially spending on infrastructure, to drive growth, as the central bank still faces limited space to ease policy due to concerns over capital outflows, analysts say.

In October, China unveiled a plan to issue 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) in sovereign bonds by the end of the year, raising the 2023 budget deficit target to 3.8% of GDP from the original 3%.

“Fiscal policy will focus on stabilizing investment to help offset the decline in real estate and external demand,” said Nie Wen, an economist at Hwabao Trust.

“Moderate cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates are expected.”

2024 Growth target eyed  

Top leaders also pledged to “to facilitate stability through progress,” which may signal greater emphasis on growth, and “establish first before demolishing”, which could indicate more support for the troubled property sector.

“To further promote economic recovery, we need to overcome some difficulties and challenges,” state media said. “The main problems are insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak public expectations, and many hidden risks.”

Last week, Ratings agency Moody’s slapped a downgrade warning on China’s credit rating, saying costs to bail out debt-laden local governments and state firms and control its property crisis would weigh on the growth outlook.

Prior to the meeting, government advisers had told Reuters they would recommend economic growth targets for 2024 ranging from 4.5% to 5.5%, with the majority favoring a target of around 5% – the same as this year.

The government may set a growth target of around 5% for 2024 sources said. Hitting such targets would require Beijing to step up stimulus given that this year’s growth has been flattered by last year’s low-base effect of COVID-19 lockdowns, analysts say.

Top leaders traditionally endorse a growth target at the December meeting, which is then publicly announced at the opening of the annual parliament meeting, usually held in March.

China’s growth is seen on track to hit the government’s target of around 5% this year.

China will speed up the establishment of a new model of property development, quickening construction of affordable housing, and coordinate the resolution of local debt risks and stable development, according to state media.
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Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour is the first tour to cross the billion-dollar mark, according to Pollstar’s 2023 year-end charts.

Not only was Swift’s landmark Eras Tour the No. 1 tour both worldwide and in North America, but she also brought in a whopping $1.04 billion with 4.35 million tickets sold across 60 tour dates, the concert trade publication found.

Pollstar data is pulled from box office reports, venue capacity estimates, historical Pollstar venue ticket sales data, and other undefined research, collected from November 17, 2022, to November 15, 2023.

Representatives for the publication did not immediately clarify if they adjusted past tour data to match 2023 inflation in naming Swift the first to break the billion-dollar threshold.

Pollstar also found that Swift brought in approximately $200 million in merch sales and her blockbuster film adaptation of the tour, “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour,” has reportedly earned approximately $250 million in sales, making it the highest-grossing concert film of all time.

According to their estimates, Pollstar predicts a big 2024 for Swift as well. The magazine projects the Eras Tour will once again reach $1 billion within their eligibility window, meaning Swift is likely to bring in over $2 billion over the span of the tour.

Worldwide, Swift’s tour was followed by Beyoncé in second, Bruce Springsteen & The E Street Band in third, Coldplay in fourth, Harry Styles in fifth, and Morgan Wallen, Ed Sheeran, Pink, The Weeknd and Drake.

In North America, there was a similar top 10: Swift, followed by Beyoncé, Morgan Wallen, Drake, P!nk, Bruce Springsteen & The E Street Band, Ed Sheeran, George Strait, Karol G, and RBD.

Beyond the Swift of it all, 2023 was a landmark year for concert sales: worldwide, the top 100 tours of the year saw a 46% jump from last year, bringing in $9.17 billion compared to 2022’s $6.28 billion.

In North America, that number jumped from $4.77 billion last year to $6.63 billion.

Earlier this week, Swift was named Time Magazine’s Person of the Year. Last month, Apple Music named her its artist of the year; Spotify revealed she was 2023’s most-streamed artist globally, raking in more than 26.1 billion streams since Jan. 1 and beating Bad Bunny’s three-year record.
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Ratings agency Moody’s downgraded the outlook on Hong Kong’s credit rating to negative from stable on Wednesday, following a similar change for China the day before.

The city’s economy was buoyed by China’s post-pandemic reopening but recovery has slowed in the latter half of the year, with the government last month revising full-year growth estimates down to 3.2 percent.

Moody’s said the “principal driver” of Hong Kong’s negative rating outlook was the “tight linkage between the credit profiles” of the finance hub and China. 

“The change in Hong Kong’s rating outlook reflects Moody’s assessment of tight political, institutional, economic and financial linkages between Hong Kong and the mainland,” the agency said in a statement.

This is the first time Hong Kong has lost its “stable” rating outlook since January 2020.

The agency said China’s downside risks would translate to risks for Hong Kong’s own creditworthiness, adding that changes in “institutional and political linkages” were a key element of the city’s risks.

“Following signs of reduced autonomy of Hong Kong’s political and judiciary institutions, notably with the imposition of a National Security Law in 2020 and changes to Hong Kong’s electoral system, Moody’s expects further erosion of the (city’s) autonomy of political, institutional and economic decisions to continue incrementally,” it said.

“This ongoing process is currently reflected in Moody’s assessment of the quality of Hong Kong’s executive and legislative institutions.”

Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law in Hong Kong after the former British colony saw huge and at times violent democracy protests in 2019.

Authorities have since ousted opposition figures from the legislature and set up a “patriots-only” electoral system, which extends down to the local level. 

Moody’s also said the weakening trend growth in mainland China would affect Hong Kong’s economy, including “through more slowly expanding opportunities for Hong Kong as the key regional economic and financial hub.”

“In turn, weaker growth in Hong Kong could erode the government’s fiscal buffers, as support to the economy broadly leads to a rise in public spending,” it added.

AFP has contacted the Hong Kong government for comment.

The agency a day earlier downgraded its outlook for China’s credit rating to negative citing rising debt in the world’s second-largest economy and concerns over its battered property sector.

Beijing’s finance ministry said in response it was “disappointed with Moody’s decision” and that the agency’s concerns about growth prospects and fiscal sustainability were “unnecessary.”
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Ratings agency Moody’s cut its outlook on China’s government credit ratings to negative from stable on Tuesday, in the latest sign of mounting global concern over the impact of surging local government debt and a deepening property crisis on the world’s second-largest economy.

The downgrade reflects growing evidence that authorities will have to provide more financial support for debt-laden local governments and state firms, posing broad risks to China’s fiscal, economic and institutional strength, Moody’s said in a statement.

“The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector,” Moody’s said.

China’s blue-chip stocks slumped to nearly five-year lows on Tuesday amid worries about the country’s growth, with talk of a possible cut by Moody’s denting sentiment during the session, while Hong Kong stocks extended losses. 

China’s major state-owned banks, which had been seen supporting the yuan currency all day, stepped up U.S. dollar selling very forcefully after the Moody’s statement, one source with knowledge of the matter said. The yuan was little changed by late afternoon.

The cost of insuring China’s sovereign debt against a default rose to its highest since mid-November.

“Now the markets are more concerned with the property crisis and weak growth, rather than the immediate sovereign debt risk,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank in Hong Kong.

The move by Moody’s was the first change on its China view since it cut its rating by one notch to A1 in 2017, also citing expectations of slowing growth and rising debt.

While Moody’s affirmed China’s A1 long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings on Tuesday — saying the economy still has a high shock-absorption capacity — it said it expects the country’s annual GDP growth to slow to 4.0% in 2024 and 2025, and to average 3.8% from 2026 to 2030.

Moody’s outlook downgrade comes ahead of the annual agenda-setting Central Economic Work Conference, which is expected around mid-December, with government advisers calling for a steady growth target for 2024 and more stimulus.

Analysts say the A1 rating is high enough in investment-grade territory that a downgrade is unlikely to trigger forced selling by global funds. The other two major rating agencies, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s, rate China A+, which is equivalent to Moody’s. Both have a stable outlook.

China’s Finance Ministry said it was disappointed by Moody’s decision, adding that the economy will maintain its rebound and positive trend. It also said property and local government risks are controllable.

“Moody’s concerns about China’s economic growth prospects, fiscal sustainability and other aspects are unnecessary,” the ministry said. 

Struggling for traction

Most analysts believe China’s growth is on track to hit the government’s target of around 5% this year, but that compares with a COVID-weakened 2022 and activity is highly uneven.

The economy has struggled to mount a strong post-pandemic recovery as the deepening crisis in the housing market, local government debt concerns, slowing global growth and geopolitical tensions have dented momentum.

A flurry of policy support measures have proven only modestly beneficial, raising pressure on authorities to roll out more stimulus.

Analysts widely agree that China’s growth is downshifting from breakneck expansion in the past few decades. Many believe Beijing needs to transform its economic model from an over-reliance on debt-fueled investment to one driven more by consumer demand.

Last week, China’s central bank head Pan Gongsheng pledged to keep monetary policy accommodative to support the economy, but also urged structural reforms to reduce a reliance on infrastructure and property for growth. 

Deeper in debt

After years of over-investment, plummeting returns from land sales, and soaring costs to battle COVID, economists say debt-laden municipalities now represent a major risk to the economy.

Local government debt reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.6 trillion), or 76% of China’s economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In October, China unveiled a plan to issue 1 trillion yuan ($139.84 billion) in sovereign bonds by the end of the year to help kick-start activity, raising the 2023 budget deficit target to 3.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) from the original 3%.

The central bank has also implemented modest interest rate cuts and pumped more cash into the economy in recent months.

Nevertheless, foreign investors have been sour on China almost all year.

Capital outflows from China rose sharply to $75 billion in September, the biggest monthly figure since 2016, according to Goldman Sachs.

($1 = 7.1430 Chinese yuan renminbi) 
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Stocks slipped on Wall Street Monday ahead of some key reports this week on the job market that might provide more insight into the Federal Reserve’s thinking about interest rates.

The S&P 500 was off 0.9%. The index is coming off its best month in more than a year, and reached its highest level in more than a year on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 150 points, or 0.4%, to 36,097 as of 11:20 a.m. Eastern. The Nasdaq composite fell 1.5%.

Treasury yields were higher, putting some pressure on stocks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which influences mortgage rates, rose to 4.29% from 4.21%. 

Technology companies were among the biggest weights on the market. Microsoft fell 2.6% and Apple fell 1.8%. 

Spotify surged 7% after announcing its third round of layoffs this year. Uber gained 5.6% after the ride-hailing service was named to join the S&P 500 index. 

Alaska Air Group slumped 15.6% after announcing it will buy Hawaiian Airlines in a $1.9 billion deal, a tie-up that would test the Biden administration as it fights consolidation in the airline sector. 

U.S. crude oil prices fell 0.3%. Oil prices have been slipping recently, helping ease pressure on inflation. 

Markets were mixed in Europe and Asia. 

Wall Street is coming off a solid week and a strong November on hopes that inflation is easing enough to allow the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates. Investors are also hoping that the economy remains strong enough to avoid a recession. 

Investors will get several key updates on the economy this week, including reports on the services sector and the jobs market. 

The Institute for Supply Management will release its November report on the services sector on Tuesday. The sector is a key component in the U.S. economy and accounts for the majority of the nation’s jobs. The report could provide more insight into consumer spending and the jobs market. 

Wall Street will get several reports this week that focus on the broader employment picture in the U.S. The government will release its October update on job openings on Tuesday and a weekly report on applications for unemployment benefits on Thursday. 

Investors will be closely watching the government’s monthly jobs report for November, which is on Friday. Analysts polled by FactSet expect U.S. employers to have added 175,000 jobs last month. They forecast that the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.9%. 

The labor market has remained strong in the U.S. even as the Fed has raised interest rates sharply in order to fight inflation by slowing the entire economy. Inflation has been falling since the middle of 2022. The central bank paused raising rates after its most recent increase in late July. 

Wall Street expects rates to remain steady into early 2024, when the Fed could begin cutting interest rates back from their highest level in two decades. The Fed’s next decision on rates will follow the close of their next two-day meeting on Dec. 13.
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Several thousand members of the Free Union of Iranian Workers went on strike Saturday against the Isfahan Steel Company, seeking higher wages and better working and living conditions. The scale and extent of the strike was significant, drawing attention even from state news agencies.

The Free Union of Iranian Workers Telegram channel disclosed that the strike unfolded as part of an ongoing protest of the steel company and its failure to meet workers’ demands. Workers assembled in front of the management building following a march within the factory premises.

According to media reports, Isfahan steelworkers have been protesting inadequate living conditions and low wages, and they also are advocating for the proper implementation of a job classification plan, wage equity with other steel companies and “other related items.”

Last Sunday, Isfahan steelworkers declared a hunger strike, refusing to accept the company’s food in protest.

Fowad Keykhosravi, a board member of the Free Union of Iranian Workers, spoke with VOA about the strike. “Based on the reports we’ve received, more than 3,000 workers from various departments of the Isfahan Steel Company — including rolling, casting, converter, tall furnace, agglomeration, coke production, furnaces and other sections — took part in the strike.”

He said that “in addition to its widespread participation, another source of strength for this protest movement is the involvement of workers from both the evening and night shifts, alongside their daytime counterparts.”

Discussing the demands of the Isfahan steelworkers, Keykhosravi told VOA, “Their specific demands include the revision and complete implementation of the job classification plan, which has only been partially executed since 2014.

“Workers are asserting their right to wage restoration and a 30% increase before the end of 1402 [the Iranian calendar year ending on March 20], aiming to bridge a portion of the substantial wage disparity with the rising cost of living, notwithstanding the official wage hike scheduled for next year.”

He said, “An increase in bonuses and other wage components, along with aligning wages with those in other steel companies, including Mobarakeh Steel, are key demands put forth by these workers.”

Keykhosravi emphasized that “another factor contributing to the strength of the protest among Isfahan Steel Company workers is the formation of this large gathering following the extensive crackdown on workers’ protests on February 26, 2023. This crackdown involved the deployment of a significant number of special guard forces within the company, the detention of numerous workers and the ongoing implementation of heightened security measures by the company’s security personnel, coupled with recent security threats.”

The Fars News Agency, associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, called the protest a “trade union gathering” and reported that “the CEO is presently engaging with the workers. The gathering does not disrupt production, as employees in specific roles continue their work.”

Worker protests in different parts of Iran have notably increased in recent years, expressed through strikes, assemblies and marches. The government’s attempts to quell the protests with heightened security and judicial measures have proven unsuccessful.
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U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris announced Saturday in Dubai at the U.N. COP28 Climate Conference that the United States is pledging $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund — the world’s largest climate fund — created to help developing countries handle climate change.

“Around the world, there are those who seek to slow or stop our progress. Leaders who deny climate science, delay climate action and spread misinformation,” the vice president said.

The multibillion-dollar pledge to the climate fund, however, first must be approved by the U.S. Congress, which is divided on the contribution.

Also Saturday, the U.S. made a commitment to phase out all the country’s coal-fired power plants when it joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance. Coal is the single largest contributor to the climate crisis, according to the alliance.

Sharp differences were laid bare Friday at COP28 regarding the future use of fossil fuels.

One day after COP28 president, United Arab Emirates’ Sultan al-Jaber — also the head of the UAE state oil company — opened the meeting with a call to not eliminate but phase down the use of fossil fuels, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for the opposite.

Addressing the delegates, Guterres said, “We cannot save a burning planet with a fire hose of fossil fuel,” and he called for the acceleration of “a just and equitable transition to renewable energy.”

The U.N. chief was referring to the 2015 Paris Climate agreement, which calls for efforts to limit the rise of global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, saying the only way that goal can be reached is if the world stops burning “all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate.”

The disagreements over fossil fuel use prompted a prominent member of the COP28 advisory board to offer her resignation Friday.

Reuters news service reported that former Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine resigned in a letter to the COP28’s president, al-Jaber, saying reports alleging the UAE planned to use the conference to discuss possible fossil fuel and other commercial deals were “deeply disappointing” and threatened to undermine the credibility of the multilateral negotiation process.

Reuters reported the letter went on to say the actions undermine the COP presidency and the process as a whole.

Earlier this week, the BBC, working with the Center for Climate Reporting, reported that leaked briefing documents revealed plans for UAE officials to discuss fossil fuel deals with 15 nations. Al-Jaber strongly denied the report.

Also Friday, Britain’s King Charles III addressed the conference, saying that the world was “dreadfully off track” on its climate goals and that he “prays with all his heart” the conference will be another critical turning point toward genuine transformational action.

In his remarks Friday, Jordan’s King Abdullah II linked climate change with the crisis in Gaza, saying they cannot talk about climate change “in isolation from the humanitarian tragedies unfolding around us.” He said thousands have been killed, injured or displaced in a region on the front lines of climate change, which, he said, magnifies the devastation.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in his remarks, linked climate change to the global food crisis, citing statistics showing the global demand for food is estimated to increase by 50% by the year 2050, while the climate crisis is expected to reduce crop yields by as much as 30% over that same period.

During its opening day Thursday, conferees did agree to a new $420 million fund to help poorer, vulnerable nations cope with the cost of disasters caused by climate change, such as droughts, floods and rising sea levels.

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry called the agreement “a great way to start” the conference.

The day one deal could pave the way for further agreements at COP28.

“COP” stands for “Conference of the Parties” to the original U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. There are currently 198 parties to the convention.

The current COP runs through December 12.

Some information for this report was provided by The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse.
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U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday will tout his “Bidenomics” agenda, contrasting his economic vision with that of so-called “MAGA” Republicans, in remarks at CS Wind, the world’s largest wind tower manufacturer, in Pueblo, Colorado.

CS Wind is expanding with a new $190 million facility that it directly attributes to the passage of 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s signature climate and energy bill. The company said the expansion is set to be completed in 2028 and will create 850 jobs.

Pueblo is a district represented by Republican Representative Lauren Boebert, a supporter of former President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again agenda and a harsh critic of Biden’s economic policies. Boebert voted against passing the IRA, calling it “dangerous for America.”

“I am very proud of the work that CS Winds is doing there in Pueblo and the jobs that they’re creating,” Boebert said during an interview Tuesday with local network KKTV. “But as I stated, this will cost the taxpayers overall from the Inflation Reduction Act hundreds of billions of dollars. This bill was a complete scam.”

In a statement, the White House said that Biden is “delivering on his promise to create opportunities and jobs in communities too often left behind, while self-described MAGA Republicans like Representative Lauren Boebert continue to undermine their constituents by trying to block the President’s agenda.”

His remarks highlighting Bidenomics come as Americans rate the president poorly on his handling of the economy. Only 32% of those polled approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, according to a Gallup poll released Tuesday. His approval rating remains at 37%.

With many voters saying the economy is a top concern in the 2024 election, the White House has been ramping up messaging that Biden’s economic policies have steered the country away from recession, highlighting positive economic growth, a declining rate of inflation and continued low unemployment.

U.S. inflation continues to fall and is lower than in comparable economies in Europe. However, after a two-year period of the highest inflation in decades, Americans are feeling the pain from prices of goods that are still higher than they were four years ago. They’re also finding it difficult to find affordable credit, as the Federal Reserve imposes higher interest rates to fight inflation.
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Almost all U.S. jobs, from truck driver to childcare provider to software developer, include skills that can be done, or at least supplemented, by generative artificial intelligence (GenAI), according to a recent report.

GenAI is artificial intelligence that can generate high-quality content based on the input data used to train it.

“AI is likely to touch every part of every job to some degree,” says Cory Stahle, an economist with Indeed.com, which released the report.

The report finds that almost one in five jobs (19.7%) — like IT operations, mathematics and information design — faces the highest risk of being affected by AI because at least 80% of the job skills those positions require can be done reasonably well by GenAI.

But that doesn’t mean that those jobs will eventually be lost to robots.

“It’s important to recognize that, in general, these technologies don’t affect entire occupations. It actually is very rare that a robot will show up, sit in somebody’s seat to do everything that someone does at their job,” says Michael Chui of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), who researches the impact of technology and innovation on business, the economy and society.

Indeed.com researchers analyzed more than 55 million job postings and found that GenAI can perform 50% to almost 80% of the skills required in 45.7% of those job listings. In 34.6% of jobs listed, GenAI can handle less than 50% of the skills.

Jobs that require manual skills or a personal touch, such as nursing and veterinary care, are the least likely to be hard hit by AI, the report says.

In the past, technological advances have mostly affected manual labor. However, GenAI is expected to have the most effect on so-called knowledge workers, generally defined as people who create knowledge or think for a living.

But, for now, AI does not appear poised to steal anyone’s job.

“There are very few jobs that AI can do completely. Even in jobs where AI can do many of the skills, there are still aspects of those jobs that AI cannot do,” Stahle says.

Rather than replace workers, researchers expect GenAI to enhance the work people already do, making them more efficient.

“This is something that, in many ways, we believe is going to unlock human potential and productivity for many workers across many different sectors of the economy,” Stahle says.

“There are a number of things that can happen,” Chui adds. “One is, we simply do more of something we were already doing, and so imagine if you’re a university professor or a teacher, and the grading can be done by machine rather than you. You can take those hours and, instead of grading, you can actually start tutoring your students, spending more time with your students, improving their performance, helping them learn.”

American workers need to begin using the new technology if they hope to remain competitive, according to Chui.

“Workers who are best able to use these technologies will be the most competitive workers in the workforce,” he says. “It was true before, but it’s more true than ever, that we’re all going to have to be lifetime learners.”

A survey developed by Chui finds that almost 80% of workers have experimented with AI tools.

“One of the great powers of these generative AI tools, so far, is they’ve been designed in such a way to make it easy for really anybody to use these types of tools,” Stahle says. “I really believe that people should be looking to embrace these tools and find ways to incorporate them into the work that they’re already interested in doing.”

Ultimately, could one of the unexpected benefits of AI be more efficient employees who work less?

“In general, Americans work a lot,” Chui says. “Maybe we don’t have to work so long. Maybe we have a four-day work week … and so you could give that time back to the worker.”
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Holiday shoppers in the U.S. are seeking out the best deals and strategically nabbing the deepest discounts ahead of Cyber Monday, according to data from retailer websites aggregated by third parties.

Cyber Monday, as the first Monday after the Thanksgiving holiday has become known as merchants step up online promotions, is set to be the biggest online shopping day of the year in the United States.

Strong online traffic on Black Friday demonstrated a notable pattern of shoppers putting time and effort into selecting the lowest-cost, best-value merchandise, said Rob Garf, vice president and general manager for retail at Salesforce, which tracks data flowing through its Commerce Cloud e-commerce service.

Despite an earlier start to retailers’ holiday promotions this year, there weren’t a lot of great deals initially, Garf said. Yet “consumers were patient, diligent, and they played a game of discount chicken. And they won once again.”

On Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, retailers “stepped up the discounting” to roughly 30% on average in the U.S., he said. And “consumers clicked the buy button,” spending $16.4 billion online in the U.S. and $70.9 billion globally that day, according to Salesforce. 

“We saw a big spike,” Garf said, adding that the strong Black Friday online outlay would “pull up” the overall tally for the entire Cyber Week, which started on Tuesday and ends on Monday.

On Cyber Monday, Salesforce expects to see discounts averaging 30% again. The risk for consumers, however, is that products may not be available if they wait, he said.

Salesforce says it derives its benchmarks for online traffic and spending from data flowing through its Commerce Cloud e-commerce service, which it says provides a window into the behavior of 1.5 billion people in 60 countries traversing thousands of e-commerce sites.

Other firms use different measurements to gauge online shopping patterns.

Rival Adobe Analytics forecasts that shoppers will spend a record $12 billion Monday, 5.4% more than last year, representing what it says will be the largest-ever e-commerce shopping day in the U.S. Retailers are set to dangle average price cuts of 30% on electronics, and 19% on furniture, said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights. 

Last-minute Cyber Monday shoppers could spend $4 billion between 6 p.m. and 11 p.m. EST alone “because consumers are going to be concerned about discounts weakening after that,” Pandya said.

Adobe provides merchants with Experience Cloud, a service which powers their e-commerce platforms, giving Adobe a window into aggregate transaction data at 85% of the top 100 internet retailers.

Overall, “consumers are being very strategic, wanting to maximize their shopping when they think they’ll get the best discounts,” Pandya said. “The online retail sector is one of the few where the consumer is a bit more in the driver’s seat,” he said, particularly with toys and seasonal holiday merchandise.

“There are a lot of online merchants vying for their dollar and they can easily compare prices.”

Mastercard, which measures retail sales across all forms of payment, said e-commerce sales rose 8.5% on Black Friday, while in-store sales rose 1%.

“Digital grew dramatically during the pandemic and then it had a reversion to the mean, when people went back to stores,” said Steve Sadove, senior adviser for Mastercard and former CEO of Saks Inc. “Now you are seeing an acceleration in digital, once again. It’s becoming more important.”
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The shelves at Moscow supermarkets are full of fruit and vegetables, cheese and meat. But many of the shoppers look at the selection with dismay as inflation makes their wallets feel empty.

Russia’s Central Bank has raised its key lending rate four times this year to try to get inflation under control and stabilize the ruble’s exchange rate as the economy weathers the effects of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine and the Western sanctions imposed as a consequence.

The last time it raised the rate — to 15%, doubled that from the beginning of the year — the bank said it was concerned about prices that were increasing at an annualized pace of about 12%. The bank now forecasts inflation for the full year, as well as next year, to be about 7.5%.

Although that rate is high, it may be an understatement.

“If we talk in percentage terms, then, probably, (prices) increased by 25%. This is meat, staple products — dairy produce, fruits, vegetables, sausages. My husband can’t live without sausage! Sometimes I’m just amazed at price spikes,” said Roxana Gheltkova, a shopper in a Moscow supermarket.

Asked if her income as a pensioner was enough to keep food on the table, customer Lilya Tsarkova said: “No, of course not. I get help from my children.”

Without their assistance, “I don’t know how to pay rent and food,” the 70-year-old said.

Figures from the state statistical service Rosstat released on Nov. 1 show a huge spike in prices for some foods compared with 2022 — 74% for cabbage, 72% for oranges and 47% for cucumbers.

The Russian parliament has approved a 2024-26 budget that earmarks a record amount for defense spending. Maxim Blant, a Russian economy analyst based in Latvia, sees that as an indication that prices will continue to rise sharply.

“It is simply impossible to solve the issue of inflation in conditions … when the military-industrial complex receives unlimited funding, when everything they ask for is given to them, when the share of this military-industrial complex in the economy grows at a very rapid pace,” he told The Associated Press.

The central bank’s rate hikes have slightly cooled the ruble’s exchange rate slide — the rate is now about 88 to the U.S. dollar from over 100 earlier. But that’s still far higher than in the summer of 2022, when it was about 60 to the dollar.

That keeps the cost of imports high, even as import possibilities shrink due to Western sanctions.
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Expect big discounts and other enticements to lure shoppers to stores for Black Friday. But retailers worry those may not be enough.

Consumers are coming under pressure as their savings dwindle and their credit card debt grows. And although they have gotten some relief from easing inflation, many goods and services like meat and rent are still far higher than they were just three years ago.

Barbara Lindquist, 85, from Hawthorne Woods, Illinois, said she and her husband plan to spend about $1,000 for holiday gifts for her three adult children, 13 grandchildren and three great-grandchildren. That’s about the same as last year.

But Lindquist, who continues to work as a pre-school teacher at a local church, said she’ll be more focused on deals given still high prices on meat and other staples. And she plans to buy more gift cards, which she believes will help her stick to her budget.

“I go for value,” said Lindquist, who just picked up discounted sheets and towels at Kohl’s for friends who will be visiting from Panama during the holidays.

Many retailers had already ordered fewer goods for this holiday season and have pushed holiday sales earlier in October than last year to help shoppers spread out their spending. An early shopping push appears to be a trend that only got more pronounced during the pandemic when clogs in the supply network in 2021 made people buy early for fear of not getting what they wanted.

But retailers said that many shoppers will be focusing more on deals and will likely wait until the last minute. Best Buy said it’s pushing more items at opening price points, while Kohl’s has simplified its deals, promoting items under a certain price point like $25 at its stores.

Target said shoppers are waiting longer to buy items. For example, instead of buying sweatshirts or denim back in August or September, they held out until the weather turned cold.

“It’s clear that consumers have been remarkably resilient,” Target’s CEO Brian Cornell told analysts last week. “Yet in our research, things like uncertainty, caution and managing a budget are top of mind.”

The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, expects shoppers will spend more this year than last year, but their pace will slow given all the economic uncertainty.

The group has forecast that U.S. holiday sales will rise 3% to 4% for November through December, compared with a 5.4% growth of a year ago. The pace is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to pre-pandemic 2019. Americans ramped up spending during the pandemic, with more money in their pockets from federal relief checks and nowhere to go during lockdowns. For the holiday 2021 season, sales for the two-month period surged 12.7%.

Online discounts should be better than a year ago, particularly for toys, electronics and clothing, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks online spending. It predicts toys will be discounted on average by 35%, compared with 22% a year ago, while electronics should see 30% cuts, compared with last year’s 27%. In clothing, shoppers will see an average discount of 25%, compared with 19% last year, Adobe said.

Analysts consider the five-day Black Friday weekend — which includes the Monday after the holiday known as Cyber Monday — a key barometer of shoppers’ willingness to spend. And Black Friday is expected to be once again the busiest shopping day of the year, according to Sensormatic Solutions, a firm that tracks store traffic. On average, the top 10 busiest shopping days in the U.S are expected to once again account for roughly 40% of all holiday retail traffic, Sensormatic said.

Marshal Cohen, chief retail adviser at Circana, a market research firm, said he thinks that shoppers will just stick to a list and not buy on impulse. He also believes they will take their time buying throughout the season.

“There’s no sense of urgency,” Cohen said. “The consumers are saying, ‘I will shop when it’s convenient for me.'”
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Shares were mostly lower in Asia on Thursday after a modest advance on Wall Street that kept the market on track for a fourth straight weekly gain.

Markets in Japan and the United States are closed Thursday for holidays.

Oil prices fell about $1 a barrel after OPEC postponed until next week a meeting to discuss production cuts. The oil cartel has been maintaining a tight market for crude oil with production cuts. It is expected to extend those cuts after oil prices have fallen after a spike in the summer to almost $100 a barrel.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.4% to 17,668.99 and the Shanghai Composite index edged 0.2% higher, to 3,048.82. Markets in Greater China have been swaying in reaction to moves by Chinese regulators to prop up the ailing property market.

Shares in troubled developer Country Garden jumped 13% amid reports that it is included on a list of real estate companies eligible for financing support. Sino-Ocean Group Holding’s shares soared 18%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.6% to 7,030.70. In South Korea, the Kospi slipped 2 points lower, to 2,509.73.

Bangkok’s SET lost 0.4% and the Taiex in Taiwan was down 0.2%. The Sensex in Mumbai opened up 0.1%.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 4,556.62. The Dow rose 0.5% to 35,273.03 and the Nasdaq gained 0.5% to 14,265.86.

Trading was muted ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. U.S. markets will be open for half a day on Friday.

Technology and communications services stocks accounted for a big share of the gains for the S&P 500. Microsoft rose 1.3% and Google parent Alphabet added 1.1%.

Broadcom slipped 0.9% after announcing that it expects to complete its $69 billion deal to acquire VMWare on Wednesday after clearing all regulatory hurdles.

A 0.9% drop in oil prices weighed on energy companies. Energy giant Exxon Mobil fell 0.4% and oilfield services company Halliburton dropped 0.8%.

But it lifted airlines and other companies that stand to benefit from lower fuel costs. United Airlines rose 0.9% and American Airlines gained 1.5%. Cruise line operator Carnival rose 1.9%.

Nvidia fell 2.5%, despite handily beating analysts’ profit and revenue forecasts. Export restrictions to China are pressuring the company, though its stock has more than tripled this year amid booming demand for its chips in artificial intelligence applications.

Earnings reports continue to drift in. Department store operator Nordstrom fell 4.6% after trimming its profit forecast for the year. Clothing retailer Guess slumped 12.3% after cutting its financial forecast.

Tractor maker Deere, a bellwether for the agricultural industry, fell 3.1% after giving Wall Street a discouraging financial forecast and industry outlook.

Treasury yields were relatively steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.41% from 4.40% late Tuesday. The yield on the 2-year Treasury slipped to 4.88% from 4.89% late Tuesday.

A consumer sentiment survey by the University of Michigan showed that confidence remains strong. Wall Street has been closely watching consumer spending and confidence reports for more clues on the economy’s path ahead.

Forecasts for a potential recession have been pushed further out into 2024 while also being softened. The rate of inflation continues to ease, consumer spending remains solid and the economy is generally humming along. That has encouraged hopes, and bets, that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and could soon consider cutting rates.

Fed officials, though, have said the outlook for the economy remains uncertain and they’ll make coming decisions on rates based on incoming reports. The Fed will get another big update next week when the government releases its October report for a key inflation measure tracked by the central bank.

In other trading Thursday, U.S. benchmark crude oil lost 91 cents to $76.19 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It dropped 67 cents to $77.10 per barrel on Wednesday.

Brent crude, the international pricing standard, gave up $1.06 to $80.90 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar slipped to 149.12 Japanese yen from 149.56 yen. The euro rose to $1.0905 from $1.0889.
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Nigerian President Bola Tinubu is welcoming new trade agreements with Germany, including a deal that calls for the West African nation to export liquid natural gas.

The signing Tuesday of two memoranda of understanding between Nigerian companies and their German counterparts was the latest in a flurry of investment deals clinched by the Tinubu-led administration in recent months.

The signings come less than two weeks after Nigeria and Saudi Arabia agreed to a deal to revive the country’s nonfunctional refineries.

Tinubu is seeking to make the country attractive to investors in a bid to revive an economy bedeviled by slow growth, rising inflation and huge debt.

Under one deal, Riverside LNG of Nigeria will supply 850,000 tons of liquefied natural gas to Germany each year, working with German firm Johannes Schuetze Energy Import AG. The first delivery of gas is expected in 2026, and the president’s office said gas exports may increase in future years.

Authorities say the deal will make use of natural gas that otherwise would have been flared into the atmosphere. Nigeria has Africa’s largest gas reserves — over 5 trillion cubic meters — but due to poor processing infrastructure, the country burns off much of it every day.

Nigeria also secured a $500 million renewable energy deal with another German company. The deal calls for Germany’s DWS Group to supply funding for renewable energy projects in Nigeria, especially in rural areas.

The president’s spokesperson, Ajuri Ngelale, did not take calls for comment, but he spoke to Lagos-based Channels television about the president’s drive for foreign investments.

“He is personally conducting an open-door policy to investors from around the world, including here in Germany, to ensure that they have direct access to all of the regulators and government officials that will further enhance the environment in which foreign direct investments will be coming into the country,” Ngelale said.

This week Tinubu attended the G20 Compact with Africa Summit in Berlin that experts say is an avenue for African countries to expand their economies through investments and trade.

Emeka Okengwu, an economic analyst, said the investments are important.

“There’s no way $500 million can be wished away. It’s a big deal and should be celebrated,” Okengwu said. “Of course, it’s going to be creating jobs. The base of our productivity is energy. If we have energy, more industries will work, people can produce more, people can get jobs.”

He cautioned, however, “It is one thing to sign paper, and it is another thing to get the deal off the ground.”

Nigerian officials are also seeking investments in the electricity and rail transport sectors.
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