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HAVANA — Cuba has charged 30 people with stealing 133 tons of chicken and selling them on the street in a rare major heist at a time of food shortages in the communist-run nation. 

Thieves took the meat, in 1,660 white boxes, from a state facility in the capital, Havana, and used the sale proceeds to buy refrigerators, laptops, televisions and air conditioners, according to a Cuban state TV broadcast late Friday. 

The chicken had been earmarked for Cuba`s “rationbook” system introduced after the late Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution to provide subsidized staples for all. 

Rigoberto Mustelier, director of government food distributor COPMAR, said the quantity stolen was the equivalent of a month`s ration of chicken for a medium-sized province at current distribution rates. 

The amount of chicken available via the rationbook has fallen sharply in recent years as an economic crisis has brought scarcities of food, fuel and medicines. 

Many subsidized products reach the populace days, weeks or even months later than scheduled, leaving people who make an average wage of 4,209 pesos a month ($14 at the informal exchange rate) to seek other ways to make ends meet. 

Authorities did not say when the chicken theft took place but noted it likely occurred between midnight and 2 a.m., when they detected fluctuations in the temperature of the cold storage facility. Video surveillance captured trucks transporting the chicken off site. 

The 30 charged included shift bosses and information technology workers at the plant, as well as security guards and outsiders not directly affiliated with the company, the TV report said. 

The suspects, if found guilty, could face up to 20 years in prison. 

Crime has increased alongside economic hardship since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, although reports of large-scale thefts are still a rarity on the Caribbean island. 
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Having enough feed for livestock is critical to the food security of many African countries. Some farmers are considering adopting a Chinese-engineered grass called Juncao, advertised as high-yielding and fast-maturing. Some scientists advise caution. Francis Ontomwa has more from Kajiado, Kenya. Video: Amos Wangwa.
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About 10,000 people born between 1946 and 1964 leave the workforce each day
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Baghdad, Iraq — Iraq has banned eight local commercial banks from engaging in U.S. dollar transactions, taking action to reduce fraud, money laundering and other illegal uses of U.S. currency days after a visit by a top U.S. Treasury official.

The banks are banned from accessing the Iraqi central bank’s daily dollar auction, a main source of hard currency in the import-dependent country that has become a focal point of a U.S. crackdown on currency smuggling to neighboring Iran.

A rare ally of both the United States and Iran with more than $100 billion in reserves held in the U.S., Iraq relies heavily on Washington’s goodwill to ensure that its access to oil revenues and finances are not blocked.

A central bank document verified by an official at the bank listed the banned banks.

They are: Ahsur International Bank for Investment; Investment Bank of Iraq; Union Bank of Iraq; Kurdistan International Islamic Bank for Investment and Development; Al Huda Bank; Al Janoob Islamic Bank for Investment and Finance; Arabia Islamic Bank and Hammurabi Commercial Bank.

The head of Iraq’s private bank association, which represents the banks involved, and Ashur and Hammurabi did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Reuters is contacting the other banks.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “We commend the continued steps taken by the Central Bank of Iraq to protect the Iraqi financial system from abuse, which has led to legitimate Iraqi banks achieving international connectivity through correspondent banking relationships.”

In July 2023, Iraq banned 14 banks from conducting dollar transactions as part of a wider crackdown on dollar smuggling to Iran via the Iraqi banking system. The decision came after a request from Washington, according to Iraqi and U.S. officials.

Banks banned from dollar transactions can continue operating and can engage in transactions in other currencies, the central bank says.

The U.S. Treasury Department’s top sanctions official, Brian Nelson, last week met top Iraqi officials in Baghdad, discussing how to protect the Iraqi and international financial systems from criminal, corrupt and terrorist actors.

Treasury announced action against Al-Huda Bank during the visit, saying it was involved in diverting billions of U.S. dollars to Iranian-backed groups.

A senior Treasury official told Reuters that Washington expected Iraq to do more to help counter Iran-backed armed groups operating out of Iraq after the killing of three U.S. soldiers that has been blamed on hard-line Iraqi factions.

The current Iraqi government came to power with the support of powerful, Iran-backed parties and armed groups with interests in Iraq’s highly informal economy, including the financial sector long seen as a money-laundering hotspot.

Still, Western officials have lauded cooperation with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani toward carrying out economic and financial reforms meant to curb the ability of Iran and its allies to access U.S. dollars, and to bring the Iraqi economy into line with international standards.
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washington — The International Monetary Fund says China’s economic decline is likely to continue over the next four years as the world’s second largest economy deals with a range of challenges from a rapidly aging population, higher unemployment and a property crisis.

In a report released on Friday, the global financial policy body – also known as the IMF – projected China’s economic growth would drop to 4.6% this year, down from its 5.2% growth in 2023, and fall further to 3.4% by 2028.

The property market, which has historically represented about a quarter of China’s GDP, has been a particular area of trouble for the Chinese economy lately, with a Hong Kong court on Monday ordering Chinese property giant China Evergrande, mired in more than $300 billion of debt, to liquidate.

An IMF analysis released Friday predicted real estate investment is likely to fall 30% to 60% in the next ten years relative to 2022 levels.

“Absent a comprehensive restructuring policy package for the troubled property sector, real estate investment could drop more than expected, and for longer, with negative implications for domestic growth and trading partners,” the IMF report read.

However, Zhang Zhengxin, the IMF’s executive director for China, disagreed with the fund’s findings in a January 10 statement included in the report.

“The Report warns of the risks in China’s real estate market, but staff’s estimate is, to some extent, too pessimistic,” Zhang wrote. “Since August 2023, the real estate market transactions have experienced general improvement, which has gradually strengthened market confidence.”

The real estate crisis is closely linked to Chinese consumers’ spending habits, according to Christopher Tang, Senior Associate Dean of Global Initiatives at the University of California Los Angeles Anderson School and Faculty Director of the UCLA Center for Global Management.

“As they see their equity in their home investment declining, they spend less on everything – lower consumer spending, the demand falls which reduces production and hence slower economic growth,” Tang told VOA in an emailed response. “There is a domino effect when the real estate market is so huge and intertwined with decades of aggressive housing development and easy lending from banks.”

Ali Wyne, the senior research and advocacy adviser for U.S.-China at the think tank International Crisis Group, said local government debt and tensions between China and Western democracies also factor into predictions of an economic downturn.

“The evidence thus far does not suggest that a hard landing is in the offing, but it does suggest that China’s growth headwinds are more intractable than they were a decade ago or even at the outset of the 2020s,” Wyne told VOA in an email.

The IMF recommended that the Chinese government encourage its citizens to find new means of investment and pursue market-oriented reforms, among other means, to boost the country’s economy, according to the report.

Tang said China needs to promote new demand-side economic policies and loosen market regulations.

“China needs to promote a freer market to support market competition that can stimulate jobs through entrepreneurship and new startups and reduce its focus on state-owned enterprises that lack incentive to innovate and to compete,” Tang wrote.
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WASHINGTON — The nation’s employers delivered a stunning burst of hiring to begin 2024, adding 353,000 jobs in January in the latest sign of the economy’s continuing ability to shrug off the highest interest rates in two decades.

Friday’s government report showed that last month’s job gain — far above what economists had predicted — topped the December gain of 333,000, a figure that was itself revised sharply higher. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%, just above a half-century low.

Wages rose unexpectedly fast in January, too. Average hourly pay climbed a sharp 0.6% from December, the fastest monthly gain in nearly two years, and 4.5% from January 2023. The strong hiring and wage growth could complicate or delay the Federal Reserve’s intention to start cutting interest rates later this year.

The latest gains showcased employers’ willingness to keep hiring to meet steady consumer spending. It comes as the intensifying presidential campaign is pivoting in no small part on views of President Joe Biden’s economic stewardship. Public polls show widespread dissatisfaction largely because even though inflation has sharply slowed, most prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Some recent surveys, though, show public approval gradually improving.

This week, the Fed took note of the economy’s durability, with Chair Jerome Powell saying “the economy is performing well, the labor market remains strong.” The central bank made clear that while it’s nearing a long-awaited shift toward cutting interest rates, it’s in no hurry to do so.

The details in Friday’s jobs report pointed to broad hiring gains across the economy. Professional and business services, a category that includes managers and technical workers, added 74,000 jobs. Healthcare companies added 70,000, retailers 45,000, governments at all levels 36,000 and manufacturers 23,000.

The unemployment rate has now come in below 4% for two straight years, the longest such streak since the 1960s.

“Overall, the labor market remains strong and continues to defy expectations of a softening,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “For Fed officials, these data strongly support patience on rate cuts. Policymakers will be in no rush to lower rates if job and wage growth continue to be robust over coming months.”

To fight inflation, the Fed raised its benchmark rate 11 times beginning in March 2022. The higher borrowing costs were widely expected to boost unemployment and likely cause a recession. Yet the economy has managed to deliver enough job growth to avoid a downturn without accelerating inflation pressures. Inflation cooled throughout 2023, making it likelier that the Fed would achieve a “soft landing” — taming inflation without derailing the economy.

A series of high-profile layoff announcements, from the likes of UPS, Google and Amazon, have raised some concerns about whether they might herald the start of a wave of job cuts. Yet measured against the nation’s vast labor force, the recent layoffs haven’t been significant enough to make a dent in the overall job market. Historically speaking, layoffs are still relatively low, hiring is still solid and the unemployment rate is still consistent with a healthy economy.

Consumers as a whole have proved more resilient than expected in the face of the Fed’s rate hikes. Having socked away savings during the pandemic, most were willing to spend it as the economy reopened. And a wave of early retirements, some of them related to COVID-19, limited the number of people available for work and contributed to a tight labor market.

The gradual improvement in public confidence has emerged in a series of recent surveys. A measure of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan has jumped in the past two months by the most since 1991. A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that Americans’ inflation expectations have reached their lowest point in nearly three years. And a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 35% of U.S. adults call the national economy good, up from 30% who said so late last year.

The rate at which Americans are quitting their jobs, considered a reliable predictor of wage trends, has slowed to pre-pandemic levels. That suggests that workers have grown somewhat less confident of finding a better job elsewhere. Employers, as a result, may be less likely to feel pressure to raise wages to keep them — and to increase their prices to make up for their higher labor costs. That cycle can perpetuate inflation.
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Taipei, Taiwan — A new report finds that some global carmakers are applying weaker human rights and responsible-sourcing standards to their joint ventures in China due to pressure from the Chinese government.

The lax standards increase the risk of exposing supply chains to forced labor from China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region, where more than 1 million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities have been subject to mass internment and other forms of persecution.

According to the report from Human Rights Watch, titled Asleep at the Wheel, several major global carmakers, including Volkswagen, Tesla, General Motors and Toyota, have failed to minimize the risk of Uyghur forced labor being used in their aluminum supply chain, an important material for automotive parts.

“The aluminum supply chain operates with multiple layers between the car company and the aluminum producer, and these layers create an opaqueness that kind of benefits the car industry because carmakers can buy material without knowing its origin and without knowing the risks to a context like Xinjiang,” Jim Wormington, a senior researcher at HRW and author of the report, told VOA by phone.

In recent years, several international investigations have found evidence of forced labor in Xinjiang. Some research warns that the supply chains of certain industries, such as the solar panel and auto industries, may be exposed to forced labor from Xinjiang.

With about 15% of the aluminum produced in China being sourced from Xinjiang, HRW found evidence through Chinese state media articles, company reports and government statements that aluminum producers in the region are participating in labor transfers.

“The link between Xinjiang, the aluminum industry, and forced labor is Chinese government-backed labor transfer programs, which coerce Uyghurs and members of other Turkic Muslim communities into jobs in Xinjiang and other regions,” the report said. It added that evidence from Chinese government sources shows that aluminum smelters in Xinjiang participated in labor transfers.

Since most aluminum from Xinjiang is mixed with other metals to make aluminum alloys in other parts of China, it’s difficult to determine how much aluminum came from Xinjiang. “Aluminum ingots from Xinjiang are brought and sold by commodities traders, further obscuring the links between Xinjiang and supply chains,” the report said.

At least three aluminum producers or smelters in Xinjiang, including Xinjiang East Hope Nonferrous Metals, Tianshan Aluminum and Xinfa Group Xinjiang, have been identified as either receiving labor transfers targeting Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities or are being closely linked to Xinjiang Production Construction Corps, which plays a key role in the repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, according to previous research and investigations.

In response to criticism of facilitating forced labor in Xinjiang, the Chinese Embassy in Washington said the accusation is “a lie of the century fabricated to smear China.”

“The people in Xinjiang have their workers’ rights concretely guaranteed,” a spokesperson from the embassy told VOA in a written response. “This falsehood only proves that some in the United States are using human rights to disadvantage China, disrupt international trade rules and undercut the stability of international industrial and supply chains.”

Despite Beijing’s efforts to push back against accusations related to forced labor in Xinjiang, Human Rights Watch said global carmakers have a responsibility to identify, prevent, and mitigate the presence of forced labor in their supply chains under regulations mandated by the United Nations.

Some carmakers, including Volkswagen and Tesla, told HRW they have limited capacity to address their Chinese joint ventures’ supply chain links to Xinjiang.

Volkswagen, which holds 50% of the equity of its joint venture in China with Chinese automaker SAIC, claimed they are “not legally responsible” for human rights impacts in its joint venture’s supply chain because Germany’s supply chain law “only covers subsidiaries in which companies have decisive influence.”

When asked about the potential links between their Chinese joint venture and an aluminum producer in Xinjiang, Volkswagen admitted they have “no transparency about the supplier relationships” of their Chinese joint ventures.

Despite the difficulty of conducting audits in China and fear of retaliation from the Chinese authorities, Wormington from HRW said there are ways for carmakers to demand more information from Chinese suppliers about the supply chain.

“[While] some carmakers really fear retaliation, since Chinese carmakers want access to global markets, global carmakers can ask their suppliers to get more information on their supply chain,” he told VOA. “There are things that carmakers can do, but in the context where they can’t ask suppliers about human rights issues, that becomes extremely difficult.”

Some foreign jurisdictions, including the United States and European Union, have enacted or are planning to pass laws that require businesses to disclose their supply chains and identify potential links to human rights abuses. Some governments have also imposed import restrictions to prevent products connected to forced labor from entering their countries.

Despite efforts by governments to prevent supply chains from being exposed to elements of forced labor from Xinjiang, some analysts think businesses need to clearly express their concerns to Beijing.

“In an ideal world, businesses would make clear at the highest level to the Chinese government that this is going to be a problem unless businesses can have their staff conduct due diligence freely to ensure there isn’t forced labor in their supply chains,” said William Nee, research and advocacy coordinator at Chinese Human Rights Defenders, a U.S.-based activist network, in a telephone interview.

Yalkun Uluyol, a researcher at Sheffield Hallam University, said companies “must stop directly or indirectly sourcing anything made in the Uyghur region, in part or whole, to ensure their products are free of Uyghur forced labor.”

The companies should make public commitments to such a policy, he added in a written response to VOA.
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Indigenous African grains such as millet and sorghum are known to be nutritious but are not popular with many, especially the Gen Zers who view the grains as food for the poor. To change this narrative, a Kenyan entrepreneur is using the grains to make snacks and breakfast cereals to promote consumption of indigenous grains and foster environmental sustainability, as Juma Majanga reports from Nairobi. Video by Amos Wangwa.
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The Biden administration’s push for clean energy solutions has turned a rural Washington state town into a hub for electric vehicle battery production. VOA’s Natasha Mozgovaya reports from Moses Lake.
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Dubai, United Arab Emirates — Container shipping through the Red Sea has dropped by nearly one-third this year as attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels continue, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.

“Container shipping … has declined by almost 30%,” said Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia department, adding that “the drop in trade accelerated in the beginning of this year.”

The Iran-backed Houthis have launched more than 30 attacks on commercial shipping and naval vessels since November 19, the Pentagon said on Tuesday.

The rebels say the attacks are in solidarity with the Palestinians and in protest of the Israel-Hamas war that has been raging in the Gaza Strip since October.

The IMF’s PortWatch platform indicates that the total transit volume through the Suez Canal was down 37% this year through January 16 compared with the same period a year earlier.

The canal connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea.

Houthi attacks have prompted some shipping companies to detour around southern Africa to avoid the Red Sea, a vital route that normally carries about 12% of global trade, according to the International Chamber of Shipping.

“The level of uncertainty is extremely high, and the developments will determine the extent of change and shift in trade patterns in terms of volume but also in terms of sustainability,” Azour told reporters in an online briefing.

“Are we on the verge of major change in trade routes,” he said, “or is it temporary because of the increase in costs and the deterioration of the security costs?”

Revised regional outlook

The United States heads a coalition to protect Red Sea shipping and is seeking to apply diplomatic and financial pressure by redesignating the Houthis as a “terrorist” group.

The Red Sea is particularly vital for European trade.

Last week the European Union’s trade commissioner said maritime traffic through the Red Sea shipping route had fallen by 22% in a month because of the rebel attacks.

The European Union is pushing to launch its own naval mission in the Red Sea to help protect international shipping.

EU countries have given initial backing to the plan and are aiming to finalize it by a meeting of the bloc’s foreign ministers on February 19.

The United States and Britain have launched repeated strikes against Houthi capabilities in Yemen, but the Iran-backed movement is still able to hit vessels.

Wednesday’s IMF briefing came as the Washington-based fund released a revised economic outlook for countries in the Middle East and North Africa due to the Israel-Hamas war.

The IMF now sees the economies of the region expanding 2.9% this year, a decrease of half a percentage point from its October forecast.

The economic downturn in the occupied West Bank and the war-ravaged Gaza Strip was “immense,” said Azour.

In 2023, real GDP growth in Gaza and the West Bank was estimated to have dropped to about minus 6%, the IMF said, adding that it reflected a 9-percentage point downgrade from its October outlook.

“We project that the economy will keep on contracting in 2024 if there is no fast and quick cessation of hostilities and reconstruction,” Azour said.

For emerging market and middle-income economies in the region, total funding requirements over 2024 were projected to $186 billion, the IMF said, up from $156 billion in 2023.
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Brussels — European Union nations have decided to approve an outline deal that would keep in reserve the profits from hundreds of billions of dollars in Russian central bank assets that have been frozen in retaliation for Moscow’s war in Ukraine, an EU official said.

The tentative agreement, reached late Monday, still needs formal approval but is seen as a first step toward using some of the 200 billion euros ($216 billion) in Russian central bank assets in the EU to help Ukraine rebuild from Russian destruction.

The official, who asked not to be identified since the agreement was not yet legally ratified, said the bloc “would allow to start collecting the extraordinary revenues generated from the frozen assets … to support the reconstruction of Ukraine.”

How the proceeds will be used will be decided later, as the issue remains mired in legal and practical considerations.

There is urgency since Ukraine is struggling to make ends meet, and aid plans in the EU and the United States are being held back over political considerations including whether allies will continue helping Ukraine at the same pace as they did in the first two years of the war.

EU leaders will meet on Thursday hoping to approve a 50 billion euro ($54 billion) support package for Ukraine over the solitary opposition of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Even if using the unfrozen assets, which now go untapped, seems like a practical step to take, many fear that financial weaponization could harm the standing of the EU in global financial markets.

Early this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for a “strong” decision this year for the frozen assets in Western banks to “be directed towards defense against the Russian war and for reconstruction” of Ukraine.

The EU step late Monday paves the way if EU nations ever want to impose such measures. Group of Seven allies of Ukraine are still looking for an adequate legal framework to pursue the plan.

The U.S. announced at the start of Russia’s invasion that America and its allies had blocked access to more than $600 billion that Russia held outside its borders — including roughly $300 billion in funds belonging to Russia’s central bank. Since then, the U.S and its allies have continued to impose rounds of targeted sanctions against companies and wealthy elites with ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The World Bank’s latest damage assessment of Ukraine, released in March 2023, estimates that costs for the nation’s reconstruction and recovery will be $411 billion over the next 10 years, which includes needs for public and private funds.

Belgium, which holds the rotating presidency of the European Union for the next six months, is now leading the talks on whether to seize Russia’s assets. Belgium is also the country where most frozen Russian assets under sanctions are being held.

The country is collecting taxes on the assets. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said in October that 1.7 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in tax collections were already available and that the money would be used to pay for military equipment, humanitarian aid and helping rebuild the war-torn country.
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PARIS — French farmers vowed Saturday to continue protesting, maintaining traffic barricades on some of the country’s major roads a day after the government announced a series of measures that they say do not fully address their demands.

The farmers’ movement, seeking better payment for their produce, less red tape and protection against cheap imports has spread in recent days across the country, with protesters using their tractors to shut down long stretches of road and slow traffic.

They’ve also dumped stinky agricultural waste at the gates of government offices.

While some of the barricades were gradually being lifted Saturday, highway operator Vinci Autoroutes said the A7, a major highway heading through southern France and into Spain, was still closed. Some other roads were also partially closed, mostly in southern France.

Vinci Autoroutes noted that the blockades on two highways leading to Paris have been removed. The highway from Lyon, in eastern France, to Bordeaux, in the southwest, also reopened Saturday, the company said in a statement.

Some angry protesters were planning to give a new boost to the mobilization next week, threatening to block traffic around Paris for several days, starting from Sunday evening.

President Emmanuel Macron’s new prime minister, Gabriel Attal, announced a series of measures Friday during a visit to a cattle farm in southern France. They include “drastically simplifying” certain technical procedures and the progressive end to diesel fuel taxes for farm vehicles, he said.

Attal also confirmed that France would remain opposed to the European Union signing a free-trade deal with the Mercosur trade group, as French farmers denounce what they see as unfair competition from Latin American countries. The agreement has been under negotiation for years.

In response to Attal’s announcement, France’s two major farmers’ unions quickly announced their decision to continue the protests, saying the government’s plan doesn’t go far enough.

The protests in France are also symptomatic of discontent in agricultural heartlands across the European Union. The influential and heavily subsidized sector is becoming a hot-button issue ahead of European Parliament elections in June, with populist and far-right parties hoping to benefit from rural disgruntlement against free trade agreements, burdensome costs worsened by Russia’s war in Ukraine and other complaints.

In recent weeks, farmers have staged protests in Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Romania.
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UNITED NATIONS — The U.N. trade body said Thursday that global trade is being disrupted by attacks in the Red Sea, the war in Ukraine, and low water levels in the Panama Canal.

Jan Hoffmann, a trade expert at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, known as UNCTAD, warned that shipping costs have surged, and energy and food costs are being affected, raising inflation risks.

Since attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea began in November, he said, major players in the shipping industry have temporarily stopped using Egypt’s Suez Canal, a critical waterway connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea and a vital route for energy and cargo between Asia and Europe.

The Suez Canal handled 12% to 15% of global trade in 2023, but UNCTAD estimates that the trade volume going through the waterway dropped by 42% over the last two months, Hoffmann said.

Since November, the Iranian-backed Houthis have launched at least 34 attacks on shipping through the waterways leading to the Suez Canal. The Houthis, a Shiite rebel group that has been at war with a Saudi-led coalition backing Yemen’s exiled government since 2015, support the Palestinians and have vowed to keep attacking until the Israel-Hamas war ends.

The United States and Britain have responded with strikes against Houthi targets, but the rebels have kept up their attacks.

Hoffmann, who heads the trade logistics branch at Geneva-based UNCTAD, told a video press conference with U.N. reporters that the Houthi attacks are taking place at a time when other major trade routes are under strain.

The nearly two-year war since Russia’s February 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions have reshaped oil and grain trade routes including through the Black Sea, he said.

Compounding difficulties for shipping companies, Hoffmann said, severe drought has dropped water levels in the Panama Canal to their lowest point in decades, significantly reducing the number and size of vessels that can transit through it.

Total transits through the Panama Canal in December were 36% lower than a year ago, and 62% lower than two years ago, Hoffmann said.

Ships carry around 80% of the goods in world trade, and the percentage is even higher for developing countries, he said.

As for costs, he said, average container shipping spot rates from Shanghai have gone up by 122% since early December, while rates from Shanghai to Europe went up by 256% and rates to the U.S. West Coast by 162%.

“Here you see the global impact of the crisis, as ships are seeking alternative routes, avoiding the Suez and the Panama Canal,” Hoffmann said.

But the Red Sea crisis is causing significant disruptions in the shipment of grains and other key commodities from Europe, Russia and Ukraine, leading to increased costs for consumers and posing serious risks to global food security, Hoffmann said.

This is especially true in regions like East Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia, which heavily rely on wheat imports from Europe and the Black Sea area, he said.

Hoffmann said early data from 2024 show that more than 300 container vessels, more than 20% of global container capacity, were diverting or planning alternatives to using the Suez Canal. Many are opting to go around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, a longer and more costly trip.

Hoffmann said ships transporting liquefied natural gas have stopped transiting the Suez Canal altogether because of fears of an attack. 
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WASHINGTON — U.S. officials hoping to break China’s near monopoly on the production of rare earth elements needed for many cutting-edge technologies should engage the governments of Central Asia to develop high concentrations of REEs found in the region, says a new report. 

The study by the U.S.-based International Tax and Investment Center warns that a failure to act could leave China with a “decisive advantage” in the sector, which is crucial to green energy, many new weapons systems and other advanced technologies. 

“As the uses for these minerals has expanded, so too has global competition for them in a time of sharply increasing geostrategic and geo-economic tension,” the report says. 

“Advanced economies with secure, reliable access to REEs enjoy economic advantages in manufacturing, and corresponding economic disadvantages accrue for those without this access.” 

China, which accounts for most of the world’s rare earth mining within its own borders, has not yet had to seek additional supplies from Central Asia, which enjoys plentiful reserves of minerals ranging from iron and nonferrous metals to uranium. 

But, the report says, “the massive size of the Chinese economy and the Chinese Communist Party’s conscious efforts to dominate the REE sector globally mean such increases are a matter of time.”  

Oil-rich Kazakhstan, the region’s economic giant, holds the world’s largest chromium reserves and the second-largest stocks of uranium, while also possessing other critical elements.  

Report co-author Ariel Cohen says it is up to the governments of Central Asia to create the investment climate for development of these resources.   

“They may be the next big thing in Central Asia as the engine of economic growth,” Cohen said this week during a panel discussion at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.  

Across Central Asia, experts note, REEs are found in substantial volumes in the Kazakh steppe and uplands as well as in the Tien Shan mountains across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and in the Pamir Mountains in Tajikistan.  

Monazite, zircon, apatite, xenotime, pyrochlore, allanite and columbite are among Central Asia’s most abundant rare metals and minerals.  

In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey listed 384 REE occurrences in the region: 160 in Kazakhstan, 87 in Uzbekistan, 75 in Kyrgyzstan, 60 in Tajikistan, and two in Turkmenistan.

Wesley Hill, another expert on Central Asia’s mineral reserves, says production of rare earths at present “is almost wholly monopolized by China.”  

“Depending on how you count, between 80 to 90% of REE refining is controlled by China and done directly inside of China,” Hill said.   

But, he argued, despite China’s heavy involvement in Central Asia, it has yet to fully take over the region’s rare earth sector. “So, this means that Central Asia is very much at a crossroads,” he said. “Central Asia has the opportunity to expand its REE production without being wholly dependent on China.” 

Central Asia is currently in a position where it can develop its REE refining capacities both for its national development strategies and to break the Chinese monopoly, Hill said.  

“But this is only going to happen with good policy, both from the American side and the Central Asian side.”  

Ambassador John Herbst, Washington’s former top diplomat in Uzbekistan and Ukraine, says the region’s REE assets are “simply another reason for enhanced engagement by the West.” 

He said he is not sure that Central Asian governments appreciate how important rare earths can be to their development. “But I do know that the countries of Central Asia want a closer relationship with the United States, and that is one important part of their maintaining their hard-won independence.” 

Herbst added that the United States and Central Asia have a common interest in working together to develop the region’s rare earths “for the economy of the future.” 

“We have an ability to innovate that far exceeds [China’s]. Their innovation is based largely on taking our technology.”

Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti, who serves as energy transition counsel at the U.S. Department of Commerce, says the region is eager for investment. 

“It is a development opportunity. Particularly with the geostrategic energy realignment after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also, because of the energy transition. Lithium and other REE are necessary for different parts of that transition. So that’s primarily an economic incentive,” she said. 

She pointed to the Mineral Strategic Partnership Initiative run by the U.S. State Department’s Bureau on Energy Resources, which is able to promote foreign direct investment in the region while providing technical assistance in the mining sector. 

Cohen said the Central Asian countries cannot wait long to develop their rare earths. “There is a competition, and the African countries, Latin American countries and others will compete increasingly.”  

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez, who heads a consultancy called Second Floor Strategies, says Central Asia needs a rare earth research center that can provide timely information to prospective customers and investors.  

Transportation is key, Sanchez said. “It’s not just about finding and mining them. You have to get them to the international market.”  

Access from the landlocked region at present is limited to China’s Belt and Road infrastructure or routes through Russia. Sanchez and others recommend using the Middle Corridor, also called the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which can carry goods to Europe across the Caspian and Black seas.  

These experts also say progress will depend on regional governments overcoming their traditional secretiveness regarding natural resources. They emphasize the importance of transparency, the rule of law, adherence to best practices and compliance with international norms if they hope to attract Western investment.
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