Harris is pushing joy. Trump paints a darker picture. Will moods matter?

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WASHINGTON — At the top of his first speech as her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz turned to Vice President Kamala Harris and declared, “Thank you for bringing back the joy.” The next day, Harris took the theme a step further, branding the Democratic ticket “joyful warriors.”

Contrast that with former President Donald Trump, who opened a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida a few days later by saying, “We have a lot of bad things coming up,” and predicting the U.S. could fall into an economic depression unseen since the dark days of 1929 or even another world war.

“I think that our country is, right now, in the most dangerous position it’s ever been in, from an economic standpoint, from a safety standpoint,” Trump said Thursday.

Democrats are playing up their sunnier outlook, promoting the idea that voters can be inspired to support someone and not just cast their ballot against the other side. The Trump campaign argues their candidate is reflecting the dour mood of the country and dismisses the idea that a growing contrast in tone and upbeat attitude will decide the presidency.

Two-thirds of Americans reported feeling very or somewhat pessimistic about the state of politics, according to polling by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research from last month. Roughly 7 in 10 said things in the country are heading in the wrong direction.

Jason Miller, a senior adviser to the former president, said people don’t care about “vibe checks.”

“That’s not making gas or food or housing less expensive,” Miller said.

Walz promotes positivity

Still, just how hard Harris is betting on the opposite approach is evident in her decision to pick Walz, whose personal story includes being on the coaching staff of a high school football team that had gone winless just a few years earlier to clinching a state championship in 1999.

The Minnesota governor’s relentless positivity is meant to give supporters a jolt of new energy and keep the momentum that Harris has built after President Joe Biden — facing mounting pressure from within his own party and increasingly pessimistic views about his chances in November — stepped aside and endorsed his vice president.

Walz spent his first week as Harris’ running mate traveling to swing states with Harris and underscored the point during a rally in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, celebrating what he said was “the ability to talk about what can be good.”

“This idea of caring for our neighbor and kindness, and a hand up when somebody needs it. And just the sense that people go through things and to be able to be there when they need it, that’s who we are,” he said. “It’s not about mocking. It’s not name-calling.”

Biden often ended his speeches saying he’d never been more optimistic. But he built his now-shuttered reelection bid around branding Trump an existential threat to democracy. The president offered dire predictions about the former president, suggesting he’d dismantle the nation’s founding principles should he retake the White House.

Harris’ campaign still relies on many of the same themes, decrying Trump as a threat to democracy, warning that he’ll impose draconian limits to abortion and voting and that he will follow Project 2025, a plan championed by top conservatives to remake large swaths of the federal government.

And despite Walz insisting that smiles were more powerful than insults, he and Harris have continued their share of denunciations, decrying Trump’s conviction in New York on 34 felony counts in a hush-money case and his being found liable for fraudulent business practices and sexual abuse in civil court.

Still, even before she named Walz her running mate, Harris was suggesting that she could help make politics fun again.

“We love our country. And I believe it is the highest form of patriotism to fight for the ideals of our country,” Harris declared in campaign speeches before picking Walz. She now tells crowds that she and her running mate “both believe in lifting people up, not knocking them down.”

Paula Montagna, who went to see Harris and Walz at a rally outside Detroit last week, highlighted the shift in messaging since Harris took over from Biden.

“Kamala is so positive, and it’s nice to hear positive instead of negative,” Montagna said.

Trump team says their candidate is reflecting reality

Trump’s senior campaign advisers counter that the mood of the country right now is sour over the economy, the state of the U.S.-Mexico border and turmoil in the Middle East and beyond. They see their candidate as reflecting that reality rather than what they believe is a temporary exuberance igniting the Democratic base after months of discouragement over their ticket.

Trump has tried to harness that with his repeated predictions of stock market crashes and war. His campaign appearances have included a long list of other warnings that have veered into the apocalyptic, saying that if he’s not elected, “we’re not going to have a country anymore,” that “the only thing standing between you and its obliteration is me,” and that under a Harris administration, “Social Security will buckle and collapse” and “the suburbs will be overrun with violent crime and savage foreign gangs.”

During his Republican National Convention speech last month, where his advisers said Trump would seem changed and more personal after surviving an attempted assassination, the former president did strike a different tone — at least to start.

He said early on that he had “a message of confidence, strength and hope” and sought to “launch a new era of safety, prosperity and freedom for citizens of every race, religion, color and creed.”

But by the end, Trump had returned to predictions of doom, twice warning, “Bad things are going to happen.”

Ohio Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, has drawn a sharp contrast with Walz. Vance has been cheered on the right for being an aggressive fighter on behalf of the former president, particularly when engaging with reporters.

“Right now, I am angry about what Kamala Harris has done to this country and done to the American southern border,” Vance said at a campaign stop in Michigan. “And I think most people in our country, they can be happy-go-lucky sometimes, they can enjoy things sometimes, and they can turn on the news and recognize that what’s going on in this country is a disgrace.”

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, not himself known for a sunny disposition, offered much the same assessment Friday at a conservative conference in Atlanta hosted by radio host Erick Erickson.

“The country is obviously in a bad mood,” McConnell said.

Trump supporters waiting to see him at a rally in Bozeman, Montana, said they felt the former president’s campaign made them feel positive — even if his message often isn’t.

“Just looking at the state of the country now, I don’t think Kamala Harris’ campaign is one of joy and hope. I think that’s Trump’s campaign,” said Alex Lustig, a 23-year-old from Billings, Montana.

Fred Scarlett, a 63-year-old retiree from Condon, Montana, said that “everyone understands that we need to be here to support Trump because he has never let us down.”

“They shoot at him,” Scarlett said, “and he still keeps firing back.”
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Global youth unemployment falls to 15-year low, but post-COVID recovery uneven

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Geneva — Global youth unemployment rates fell to 13% in 2023, a 15-year low. But a new study by the International Labor Organization warns the post-COVID economic recovery is uneven, with some regions seeing an increase in the number of out-of-work young people. 

The ILO has issued its Global Employment Trends for Youth 2024 report to coincide with International Youth Day on August 12, to raise awareness of the needs, hopes, and aspirations of young people.    

The current report reflects these issues and analyzes current and future prospects. 

The report predicts that the four-year-long improved global labor market for young people will continue its upward trend for two more years, with unemployment rates expected to fall further to 12.8% this year and next.   

This bright outlook, however, is not universal. The report notes that several regions are falling behind and not getting the benefits of the economic recovery. 

“In three regions, mainly in the Arab States, Southeast Asia and the Pacific, youth unemployment rates were higher in 2023 than in 2019 in pre-COVID-19 days,” Gilbert Houngbo, ILO director-general, told journalists in Geneva last week at a briefing ahead of the report’s publication. 

“At the same time, the recovery has not been the same for young men and young women,” he said. “Some of you may recall, before the pandemic, that young men globally experienced higher unemployment rates than young women. But by 2023, unemployment rates for young women and young men almost converged — 20.9% for young women versus 13.1% for young men. 

“This highlights the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on young women’s employment opportunities and ensures that some young women will have been left behind in the recovery process,” he said. 

Flagging another issue of concern, authors of the report point out that only six percent of the world’s youth population were unemployed in 2023, but a much larger share — 20.4% — was not in employment (individuals without a job and not seeking one), education or training. This is referred to as NEET in ILO parlance. 

The report finds that one in five young people between the ages of 15 and 24 was NEET in 2023 and two in three were female.    

The report underscores the persistent challenges facing young people in gaining decent jobs in developing countries. It highlights the glaring equality gap between rich and poor countries where “the inequalities of opportunity have gotten worse.” 

“Today, only one in four young workers in the low-income countries has a regular secure job compared to three-quarters of young workers in high income countries,” ILO chief Houngbo said. “However, two-thirds of young adults in low- and middle-income countries face education jobless matches because their qualifications do not necessarily align well with their qualifications and requirements.” 

ILO data reveals that youth unemployment rates have reached “historic lows” in North America, in areas of western Europe, and have come down substantially in Latin America in recent years. The data, however, show that youth unemployment rates remain critically high in the Arab states and North Africa. 

“In both subregions, more than one in three economically active youth were unemployed in 2023. Fewer than one in 10 women and fewer than one in three young men in the two subregions are working,” authors of the report say. 

The situation in sub-Saharan Africa is quite different where, according to the report, youth unemployment rates stand at 8.9%, “which are among the lowest in the world.” 

Sara Elder, head of ILO’s employment analyses and economic policies unit, explains, “The issue here is that young people in certain contexts do not have the luxury of being unemployed. They have to take up a job. They have to earn some income. 

“Often it is poverty driven and this is very much what we see in young people in sub-Saharan Africa,” she said, adding that the region “has a very distinct problem of decent work deficits.” 

“It is a region where three in four young people do not have access to what we deem to be a more secure form of employment and also a region where one in three persons is working in a low paid job,” she said. 

Her colleague, Mia Seppo, ILO assistant director-general for jobs and social protection, points out that most young people, around 60%, eke out a living in the agricultural sector, “and a lot of that is in employment that is informal and insecure. And, that is not necessarily reflective of young people’s aspirations.” 

“So, there actually lies the potential in terms of agri-food supply chains and in developing the agricultural sector in terms of new jobs and trying to make agriculture something that is attractive and provides more decent jobs for young people,” she said. 

Authors of the report say demographic trends, notably, the so-called African “youthquake,” means that creating enough decent jobs, “will be critical for social justice and the global economy.” 

The report calls for increased and more effective investment in boosting job creation, especially for young women. It says governments must strengthen labor market policies that target employment for disadvantaged youth, make sure that young people receive equal treatment and social protection at work, and “tackle global inequalities through improved international cooperation.” 
…

Reynolds-Lively husband and wife team wins weekend box office

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New York — In the Ryan Reynolds-Blake Lively box-office showdown, both husband and wife came out as winners. 

Reynolds’ Marvel Studios smash “Deadpool & Wolverine” remained the top movie in North American theaters for the third straight week with $54.2 million in ticket sales according to studio estimates Sunday. Worldwide, it’s now surpassed $1 billion.

“Deadpool & Wolverine,” though, was closely followed by “It Ends With Us,” the romance drama starring Lively, which surpassed expectations with a stellar $50 million debut. 

Together, the films created a kind of family edition of “Barbenheimer,” in which a pair of very different movies thrived in part due to counterprogramming. Only this time, the opposite movies were fronted by one of Hollywood’s most famous couples. The films’ one-two punch wasn’t entirely unprecedented. In 1990, Bruce Willis’ “Die Hard 2” led the box office while Demi Moore’s “Ghost” came in second. 

The weekend also featured a high-priced flop. “Borderlands,” the long-delayed $120-million videogame adaptation directed by Eli Roth, launched with a paltry $8.8 million for Lionsgate. The film, starring Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart and Jack Black, was shot all the way back in 2021. After delays and reshoots, it finally landed in theaters effectively dead-on-arrival; it scored just 10% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and seems likely to contend for one of the worst movies of the year. 

Meanwhile, “Deadpool & Wolverine,” which co-stars Hugh Jackman, continued its march through box-office records. The film, directed by Shawn Levy, is only the second R-rated movie to reach $1 billion, following 2019’s “Joker.” In three weeks, it’s already one of the most lucrative Marvel releases and trails only Disney’s other 2024 smash, “Inside Out” ($1.6 billion worldwide) among movies released this year. 

Lively makes a cameo in “Deadpool & Wolverine” but she both stars in and produced “It Ends With Us.” Adapted from the bestselling romance novel by Colleen Hoover, Lively stars as Lily Bloom, a Boston florist torn between two men, one from her present life (Justin Baldoni, who also directed the film) and another who was her first love (Brandon Sklenar).

“It Ends With Us” cost a modest $25 million to produce, so it will turn a significant profit for co-financers Columbia Pictures and Wayfarer Studios. Like another female-skewing summer-release book adaptation from Sony, “Where the Crawdads Sing,” “It Ends With Us” could hold well through the typically slower August box-office period. Audiences gave it an A- CinemaScore. 

Reynolds and Lively occasionally played up the convergence of their movies. Earlier this week, Reynolds posted a video of himself posing junket questions to Sklenar. The timing paid off especially for Lively, whose film doubled earlier opening-weekend forecasts. 

Neon’s “Cuckoo,” a German Alps-set horror film by filmmaker Tilman Singer, opened with $3 million on 1,503 screen. It stars Hunter Schafer and Dan Stevens.

Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Comscore. Final domestic figures will be released Monday. 

 

  1. “Deadpool & Wolverine,” $54.2 million. 

  2. “It Ends With Us,” $50 million. 

  3. “Twisters,” $15 million. 

  4. “Borderlands,” $8.8 million. 

  5. “Despicable Me 4,” $8 million. 

  6. “Trap,” $6.7 million. 

  7. “Inside Out 2,” $5 million. 

  8. “Harold and the Purple Crayon,” $3.1 million. 

  9. “Cuckoo,” $3 million. 

  10. “Longlegs,” $2 million. 
    …

Rollercoaster week in US stocks leaves investors braced for bumps ahead 

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New York — A week of wild market swings has investors looking ahead to inflation data, corporate earnings and presidential polls for signals that could soothe a recent outbreak of turbulence in U.S. stocks. 

Following months of placid trading, U.S. stock volatility has surged this month as a run of alarming data coincided with the unwinding of a massive, yen-fueled carry trade to deal equities their worst selloff of the year. The S&P 500 .SPX is still down around 6% from a record high set last month, even after making up ground in a series of rallies after Monday’s crushing selloff.  

At issue for many investors is the trajectory of the U.S. economy. After months of betting on an economic soft landing, investors rushed to price in the risk of a more severe downturn, following weaker-than-expected manufacturing and employment data last week.  

“Everybody is now worried about the economy,” said Bob Kalman, a portfolio manager at Miramar Capital. “We are moving away from the greed portion of the program and now the market is facing the fear of significant geopolitical risks, a hotly contested election and volatility that is not going away.”  

Though stocks have rallied in recent days, traders believe it will be a while before calm returns to markets. Indeed, the historical behavior of the Cboe Volatility Index .VIX – which saw its biggest one-day jump ever on Monday – shows that surges of volatility usually take months to dissipate.  

Known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, the index measures demand for options protection from market swings. When it closes above 35 – an elevated level that it topped on Monday – the index has taken 170 sessions on average to return to 17.6, its long-term median and a level associated with far less extreme investor anxiety, a Reuters analysis showed.  

One potential flashpoint will be when the U.S. reports consumer price data on Wednesday. Signs that inflation is dropping too steeply could bolster fears that the Federal Reserve has sent the economy into a tailspin by leaving interest rates elevated for too long, contributing to market turbulence.  

For now, futures markets are pricing in a 55% chance the central bank will bring down benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points in September, at its next policy meeting, compared with a roughly 5% chance seen a month ago.  

“Slower payroll growth reinforces that U.S. economic risks are becoming more two-sided as inflation cools and activity slows,” said Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, in a recent note.  

Corporate earnings, meanwhile, have been neither strong enough nor weak enough to give the market direction, said Charles Lemonides, head of hedge fund ValueWorks LLC.  

Overall, companies in the S&P 500 have reported second-quarter results that are 4.1% above expectations, in line with the long-term average of 4.2% above expectations, according to LSEG data.  

Walmart WMT.N and Home Depot HD.N are among companies reporting earnings next week, with their results seen as offering a snapshot on how U.S. consumers are holding up after months of elevated interest rates.  

The end of the month brings earnings from chip giant Nvidia NVDA.O, whose shares are up around 110% this year even after a recent selloff. The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole gathering, set for Aug. 22-24, will give policymakers another chance to fine tune their monetary policy message before their September meeting.  

Lemonides believes the recent volatility is a healthy correction during an otherwise strong bull market, and he initiated a position in Amazon.com AMZN.O to take advantage of its weakness.  

The U.S. presidential race is also likely to ramp up uncertainty. 

  

Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 42% to 37% in the race for the Nov. 5 presidential election, according to an Ipsos poll published on Thursday. Harris, the vice president, entered the race on July 21 when President Joe Biden folded his campaign following a disastrous debate performance on June 27 against Trump.  

With nearly three months until the Nov. 5 vote, investors are braced for plenty of additional twists and turns in an election year that has already been one of the most dramatic in recent memory.  

“While early events suggested a clearer picture of US Presidential and Congressional outcomes, more recent events have again thrown the outcome into doubt,” analysts at JPMorgan wrote.  

Chris Marangi, co-chief investment officer of value at Gabelli Funds, believes the election will add to market volatility. At the same time, expected rate cuts in September could boost a rotation into areas of the market that have lagged in a year that has been dominated by Big Tech, he said.  

“We expect increased volatility into the election but the underlying rotation to continue as lower rates offset economic weakness,” he said. 
…

Wall St Week Ahead — Rollercoaster week in US stocks leaves investors braced for bumps ahead 

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New York — A week of wild market swings has investors looking ahead to inflation data, corporate earnings and presidential polls for signals that could soothe a recent outbreak of turbulence in U.S. stocks. 

Following months of placid trading, U.S. stock volatility has surged this month as a run of alarming data coincided with the unwinding of a massive, yen-fueled carry trade to deal equities their worst selloff of the year. The S&P 500 .SPX is still down around 6% from a record high set last month, even after making up ground in a series of rallies after Monday’s crushing selloff.  

At issue for many investors is the trajectory of the U.S. economy. After months of betting on an economic soft landing, investors rushed to price in the risk of a more severe downturn, following weaker-than-expected manufacturing and employment data last week.  

“Everybody is now worried about the economy,” said Bob Kalman, a portfolio manager at Miramar Capital. “We are moving away from the greed portion of the program and now the market is facing the fear of significant geopolitical risks, a hotly contested election and volatility that is not going away.”  

Though stocks have rallied in recent days, traders believe it will be a while before calm returns to markets. Indeed, the historical behavior of the Cboe Volatility Index .VIX – which saw its biggest one-day jump ever on Monday – shows that surges of volatility usually take months to dissipate.  

Known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, the index measures demand for options protection from market swings. When it closes above 35 – an elevated level that it topped on Monday – the index has taken 170 sessions on average to return to 17.6, its long-term median and a level associated with far less extreme investor anxiety, a Reuters analysis showed.  

One potential flashpoint will be when the U.S. reports consumer price data on Wednesday. Signs that inflation is dropping too steeply could bolster fears that the Federal Reserve has sent the economy into a tailspin by leaving interest rates elevated for too long, contributing to market turbulence.  

For now, futures markets are pricing in a 55% chance the central bank will bring down benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points in September, at its next policy meeting, compared with a roughly 5% chance seen a month ago.  

“Slower payroll growth reinforces that U.S. economic risks are becoming more two-sided as inflation cools and activity slows,” said Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, in a recent note.  

Corporate earnings, meanwhile, have been neither strong enough nor weak enough to give the market direction, said Charles Lemonides, head of hedge fund ValueWorks LLC.  

Overall, companies in the S&P 500 have reported second-quarter results that are 4.1% above expectations, in line with the long-term average of 4.2% above expectations, according to LSEG data.  

Walmart WMT.N and Home Depot HD.N are among companies reporting earnings next week, with their results seen as offering a snapshot on how U.S. consumers are holding up after months of elevated interest rates.  

The end of the month brings earnings from chip giant Nvidia NVDA.O, whose shares are up around 110% this year even after a recent selloff. The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole gathering, set for Aug. 22-24, will give policymakers another chance to fine tune their monetary policy message before their September meeting.  

Lemonides believes the recent volatility is a healthy correction during an otherwise strong bull market, and he initiated a position in Amazon.com AMZN.O to take advantage of its weakness.  

The U.S. presidential race is also likely to ramp up uncertainty. 

  

Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 42% to 37% in the race for the Nov. 5 presidential election, according to an Ipsos poll published on Thursday. Harris, the vice president, entered the race on July 21 when President Joe Biden folded his campaign following a disastrous debate performance on June 27 against Trump.  

With nearly three months until the Nov. 5 vote, investors are braced for plenty of additional twists and turns in an election year that has already been one of the most dramatic in recent memory.  

“While early events suggested a clearer picture of US Presidential and Congressional outcomes, more recent events have again thrown the outcome into doubt,” analysts at JPMorgan wrote.  

Chris Marangi, co-chief investment officer of value at Gabelli Funds, believes the election will add to market volatility. At the same time, expected rate cuts in September could boost a rotation into areas of the market that have lagged in a year that has been dominated by Big Tech, he said.  

“We expect increased volatility into the election but the underlying rotation to continue as lower rates offset economic weakness,” he said. 
…

Farmers honor ‘Peanuts’ creator with corn mazes in US, Canada

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NEW YORK — Visitors to corn mazes across the country are finding a familiar and joyous figure in the winding labyrinth of tall stalks. Snoopy.

More than 80 farms in the U.S. and Canada have teamed up with Peanuts Worldwide to create “Peanuts”-themed mazes to celebrate the beloved strip’s 75th birthday this summer and fall.

A massive Snoopy rests on top of his doghouse in a maze at Dull’s Tree Farm in Thorntown, Indiana, and he’s depicted gleefully atop a pumpkin at Downey’s Farm in Caledon, Ontario.

“All of these events helps keep my dad’s legacy alive,” says Jill Schulz, an actor and daughter of “Peanuts” creator Charles M. Schulz.

“As someone who can’t even keep houseplants alive, the fact that they can do that with a corn maze and get the artwork right and create a fun experience for all ages is pretty incredible,” she adds, laughing.

The mazes — which span 35 states and provinces, from California to New York, Ontario to Texas — are expected to attract more than 2 million visitors. Farmers are signing up for the free service because the mazes are part of the customer lure, in addition to things like hay rides, fresh produce and pumpkin carvings.

Each maze is designed for the size of the farm — from 1.5 acres to 20 acres — and are mostly corn but also sunflowers. They’re custom created by the world’s largest corn maze consulting company, The MAiZE Inc.

The Utah-based Brett Herbst, who leads the company and who launched his first corn maze in 1996, says technology has only somewhat changed the way corn mazes are made.

“The first year we did it, we just used a weed whacker with a saw blade on it when the corn was fully grown,” he says. “Now we do it when it’s short and we go in and either mow it or rototill it. We design it all on a computer, but most of it we actually just go draw it out on the ground by hand.”

He and his team have over the years designed mazes with everything from the faces of presidential candidates, Oprah Winfrey, zombies, John Wayne and Chris LeDoux. Charlie Brown and Co. just work well, he says.

“It’s very nostalgic and just seemed like a very natural fit from the get-go to embrace that with ‘Peanuts,'” he says. “It’s harvest time. It’s kind of become this iconic thing.”

There’s an art and a science to maze building, a balance between maintaining the integrity of the image, but also making it a true maze where people can actually get lost in. “That’s definitely a challenge there,” says Herbst. “You want to accomplish both as much as possible.”

“Peanuts” made its debut Oct. 2, 1950. The travails of the “little round-headed kid” Charlie Brown and his pals eventually ran in more than 2,600 newspapers, reaching millions of readers in 75 countries.

The strip offers enduring images of kites in trees, Charlie Brown trying to kick a football, tart-tongued Lucy handing out advice for a nickel and Snoopy taking the occasional flight of fancy to the skies. Phrases such as “security blanket” and “good grief” are a part of the global vernacular. Schulz died in 2000.

There’s something timeless about corn mazes, and that’s what excites Jill Schulz so much. They offer kids a chance to disconnect from their online life and celebrate something their parents did.

“It’s great to have an opportunity to just bring kids to events that are old school, because it’s also important for parents and grandparents to introduce something they loved to do as a child,” she says.

“I think we all need a little innocence for our children right now with all the technology out there. We need a little ‘put down your phone and go out and have some good old fashioned, old school family time.’ I think that’s important.”
…

Chinese tax collectors descend on companies as budget crunches loom

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BEIJING — Chinese authorities are chasing unpaid taxes from companies and individuals dating back decades, as the government moves to plug massive budget shortfalls and address a mounting debt crisis.

More than a dozen listed Chinese companies say they were slapped with millions of dollars in back taxes in a renewed effort to fix local finances that have been wrecked by a downturn in the property market that hit sales of land leases, a main source of revenues.

Policies issued after a recent planning meeting of top Communist Party officials called for expanding local tax resources and said localities should expand their “tax management authority and improve their debt management.”

Local government debt is estimated at up to $11 trillion, including what’s owed by local government financing entities that are “off balance sheet,” or not included in official estimates. More than 300 reforms the party has outlined include promises to better monitor and manage local debt, one of the biggest risks in China’s financial system.

That will be easier said than done, and experts question how thoroughly the party will follow through on its pledges to improve the tax regime and better balance control of government revenues.

“They are not grappling with existing local debt problems, nor the constraints on fiscal capacity,” said Logan Wright of the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm. “Changing central and local revenue sharing and expenditure responsibilities is notable but they have promised this before.”

The scramble to collect long overdue taxes shows the urgency of the problems.

Chinese food and beverage conglomerate VV Food & Beverage reported in June it was hit with an 85 million yuan ($12 million) bill for taxes dating back as far as 30 years ago. Zangge Mining, based in western China, said it got two bills totaling 668 million RMB ($92 million) for taxes dating to 20 years earlier.

Local governments have long been squeezed for cash since the central government controls most tax revenue, allotting a limited amount to local governments that pay about 80% of expenditures such as salaries, social services and investments in infrastructure like roads and schools.

Pressures have been building as the economy slowed and costs piled up from “zero-COVID” policies during the pandemic.

Economists have long warned the situation is unsustainable, saying China must beef up tax collection to balance budgets in the long run.

Under leader Xi Jinping, the government has cut personal income, corporate income, and value-added taxes to curry support, boost economic growth and encourage investment — often in ways that favored the rich, tax scholars say. According to most estimates, only about 5% of Chinese pay personal income taxes, far lower than in many other countries. Government statistics show it accounts for just under 9% of total tax revenues, and China has no comprehensive nationwide property tax.

Finance Minister Li Fo’an told the official Xinhua News Agency that the latest reforms will give local governments more resources and more power over tax collection, adjusting the share of taxes they keep.

“The central government doesn’t have a lot of responsibility for spending, so it doesn’t feel the pain of cutting taxes,” said Cui Wei, a professor of Chinese and international tax policy at the University of British Columbia.

The effectiveness of the reforms will depend on how they’re implemented, said Cui, who is skeptical that authorities will carry out a proposal to increase central government spending. That “will require increasing central government staffing, and that’s an ‘organizational’ matter, not a simple spending matter,” he said.

“I wouldn’t hold my breath,” Cui said.

Sudden new tax bills have hit some businesses hard, further damaging already shaky business confidence. Ningbo Bohui Chemical Technology, in Zhejiang on China’s eastern coast, suspended most of its production after the local tax bureau demanded 500 million yuan ($69 million) in back taxes on certain chemicals. It is laying off staff and cutting pay to cope.

Experts say the arbitrary way taxes are collected, with periods of leniency followed by sudden crackdowns, is counterproductive, discouraging companies from investing or hiring precisely when they need to.

“When business owners are feeling insecure, how can there be more private investment growth in China?” said Chen Zhiwu, a finance professor at the University of Hong Kong’s business school. “An economic slowdown is inevitable.”

The State Taxation Administration has denied launching a nationwide crackdown, which might imply past enforcement was lax. Tax authorities have “always been strict about preventing and investigating illegal taxation and fee collection,” the administration said in a statement last month.

As local governments struggle to make ends meet, some are setting up joint operation centers run by local tax offices and police to chase back taxes. The AP found such centers have opened in at least 23 provinces since 2019.

Both individuals and companies are being targeted. Dozens of singers, actors, and internet celebrities were fined millions of dollars for avoiding taxes in the past few years, according to a review of government notices.

Internet livestreaming celebrity Huang Wei, better known by her pseudonym, Weiya, was fined 1.3 billion yuan ($210 million) for tax evasion in 2021. She apologized and escaped prosecution by paying up, but her social media accounts were suspended, crippling her business.

The hunt for revenue isn’t limited to taxes. In the past few years, local authorities have drawn criticism for slapping large fines on drivers and street vendors, similar to how cities like Chicago or San Francisco earn millions from parking tickets. Despite pledges by top leaders to eliminate fines as a form of revenue collection, the practice continues, with city residents complaining that Shanghai police use drones and traffic cameras to catch drivers using their mobile phones at red lights.

Outside experts and Chinese government advisers agree that structural imbalances between local and central governments must be addressed. But under Xi, China’s most authoritarian leader in decades, decision-making has grown more opaque, keeping businesses and analysts guessing, while vested interests have pushed back against major changes.

“They have a hermetically sealed process that makes it difficult for people on the outside to know what is going on,” says Martin Chorzempa, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Beijing has been reluctant to rescue struggling local governments, wary it might leave them dependent on bailouts. So, the central government has stepped in only in dire cases, otherwise leaving local governments to resolve debt issues on their own.

“In Chinese, we have a saying: You help people in desperate need, but you don’t help the poor,” said Tang Yao, an economist at Peking University. “You don’t want them to rely on soft money.”

Economists say intervention may be required this time around and that the central government has leeway to take on more debt, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of only around 25%. That’s much lower than many other major economies.

Accumulated total non-financial debt, meanwhile, is estimated at nearly triple the size of the economy, according to the National Institution for Finance and Development and still growing.

“This is a huge structural problem that needs a huge structural solution that is not forthcoming,” said Logan Wright of the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm. “There’s really no way around this. And it’s getting worse, not better.”
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City officials release audio and video recordings from 2022 Texas school shooting

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DALLAS — As law enforcement officers hung back outside Khloie Torres’ fourth-grade classroom in Uvalde, Texas, she begged for help in a series of 911 calls, whispering into the phone that there were “a lot” of bodies and telling the operator: “Please, I don’t want to die. My teacher is dead. Oh, my God.”

At one point, the dispatcher asks Khloie if there are many people in the room with her.

“No, it’s just me and a couple of friends. A lot of people are,” she says, pausing briefly, “gone.”

Calls from Khloie and others, along with body camera footage and surveillance videos from the May 24, 2022, shooting at Robb Elementary School, were included in a massive collection of audio and video recordings released by Uvalde city officials on Saturday after a prolonged legal fight.

The Associated Press and other news organizations brought a lawsuit after the officials initially refused to publicly release the information. The massacre, which left 19 students and two teachers dead, was one of the worst school shootings in U.S. history.

The delayed law enforcement response to the shooting has been widely condemned as a massive failure: Nearly 400 officers waited more than 70 minutes before confronting the gunman in a classroom filled with dead and wounded children and teachers. Families of the victims have long sought accountability for the slow police response in the South Texas city of about 15,000 people 130 kilometers west of San Antonio.

Brett Cross’ 10-year-old nephew, Uziyah Garcia, was among those killed. Cross, who was raising the boy as a son, was angered that relatives weren’t told the records were being released and that it took so long for them to be made public.

“If we thought we could get anything we wanted, we’d ask for a time machine to go back … and save our children, but we can’t, so all we are asking for is for justice, accountability and transparency, and they refuse to give this to us,” he said.

Jesse Rizo, whose 9-year-old niece Jacklyn Cazares was killed in the shooting, said the release of information Saturday reignited festering anger because it shows “the waiting and waiting and waiting” of law enforcement.

“Perhaps if they were to have breached earlier, they would have saved some lives, including my niece’s,” he said.

The police response included nearly 150 U.S. Border Patrol agents and 91 state police officials, as well as school and city police. While terrified students and teachers called 911 from inside classrooms, dozens of officers stood in the hallway trying to figure out what to do. Desperate parents who had gathered outside the building pleaded with them to go in.

The gunman, 18-year-old Salvador Ramos, entered the school at 11:33 a.m., first opening fire from the hallway, then going into two adjoining fourth-grade classrooms. The first responding officers arrived at the school minutes later. They approached the classrooms, but then retreated as Ramos opened fire.

At 12:06 p.m., much of the radio traffic from the Uvalde Police Department was still focused on setting up a perimeter around the school and controlling traffic in the area, as well as the logistics of keeping track of those who safely evacuated the building. They’ve had trouble setting up a command post, one officer tells his colleagues, “because we need the bodies to keep the parents out.”

“They’re trying to push in,” he says.

At 12:16 p.m., someone with the Texas Department of Public Safety, the state law enforcement agency, called police to let them know a SWAT team was en route from Austin, about 100 kilometers away. She asked for any information the police could give about the shooting, the suspect and the police response.

“Do you have a command post? Or where do you need our officers to go?” the caller asks.

The police representative responds that officers know there are several dead students inside the elementary school and others still hiding. Some of the survivors have been evacuated to a building nearby. She doesn’t know if a command post has been set up.

At 12:50 p.m., a tactical team enters one of the classrooms and fatally shoots Ramos.

Among criticisms included in a U.S. Justice Department report released earlier this year was that there was “no urgency” in establishing a command center, creating confusion among police about who was in charge.

Multiple federal and state investigations have laid bare cascading problems in law enforcement training, communication, leadership and technology, and questioned whether officers prioritized their own lives over those of children and teachers.

Some of the 911 calls released were from terrified instructors. One described “a lot, a whole lot of gunshots,” while another sobbed into the phone as a dispatcher urged her to stay quiet. “Hurry, hurry, hurry, hurry!” the first teacher cried before hanging up.

Just before arriving at the school, Ramos shot and wounded his grandmother at her home. He then took a pickup from the home and drove to the school.

Ramos’ distraught uncle made several 911 calls begging to be put through so he could try to get his nephew to stop shooting.

“Everything I tell him, he does listen to me,” Armando Ramos said. “Maybe he could stand down or do something to turn himself in,” he added, his voice cracking.

He said his nephew, who had been with him at his house the night before, stayed with him in his bedroom all night, and told him that he was upset because his grandmother was “bugging” him.

“Oh my God, please, please, don’t do nothing stupid,” the man says on the call. “I think he’s shooting kids.”

But the offer arrived too late, coming just around the time that the shooting had ended and law enforcement officers killed Salvador Ramos.

Two of the responding officers now face criminal charges. Former Uvalde school Police Chief Pete Arredondo and former school officer Adrian Gonzales have pleaded not guilty to multiple charges of child abandonment and endangerment. A Texas state trooper in Uvalde who had been suspended was reinstated to his job earlier this month.

In an interview this week with CNN, Arredondo said he thinks he’s been “scapegoated” as the one to blame for the botched law enforcement response.

Some of the families have called for more officers to be charged and filed federal and state lawsuits against law enforcement, social media, online gaming companies, and the gun manufacturer that made the rifle the gunman used.
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Record-breaking fires scorch more than 1.4 million acres in Oregon

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PORTLAND, Oregon — Wildfires in Oregon have burned more acres of land in 2024 than in any year since reliable records began, authorities said Friday, with the mid-August peak of fire season still on the horizon.

Blazes have scorched more than 5,700 square kilometers (2,200 square miles), Northwest Interagency Coordination Center spokesperson Carol Connolly said. That’s more than any other year since 1992, when reliable records began to be kept, she said. It surpasses the previous record, set in 2020.

Connolly said 71 large fires have burned most of the land this year. Large fires are defined as those that consume more than 40 hectares (nearly 100 acres) of timber or more than 120 hectares (almost 300 acres) of grass or brush.

Thirty-two homes in the state have been lost to the fires, she said, which have been fueled by high temperatures, dry weather and low humidity.

They have prompted evacuation notices across the state and largely torched rural and mountain areas, although some have also sparked closer to the Portland metro area.

Level 3 “go now” evacuation notices were in place Friday for the small town of Cherry Grove, about 56 kilometers (35 miles) west of Portland, as a fire burned in a nearby forest. David Huey, a deputy with the Washington County Sheriff’s Office, said most residents evacuated after officers went door to door encouraging them to leave.

Airplanes and helicopters were scooping water from nearby Henry Hagg Lake to drop on the fire, said Gert Zoutendijk, spokesperson for the Gaston Rural Fire District. The lake was set to be closed to the public throughout the weekend.

The fire was roughly 1.3 square kilometers (half a square mile) with zero containment as of Friday afternoon, although crews have made progress on lining the fire, Zoutendijk said.

Another fire, near the Portland suburb of Oregon City, led authorities to temporarily close part of a state highway in the morning and issue “go now” evacuation orders along part of the route. By midafternoon, authorities downgraded the evacuation and reopened the highway.

The largest blaze is the Durkee Fire in eastern Oregon, which has scorched more than 1,200 square kilometers (459 square miles) but was at least 95% contained as of Friday, according to authorities. At one point it was the biggest fire in the country.

California’s Park Fire has since become the largest, burning more than 1,710 square kilometers (660 square miles) and destroying more than 600 structures. A man was arrested and accused of starting the fire by pushing a burning car into a gully in a wilderness park outside the Sacramento Valley city of Chico.

Also in California, the Crozier Fire in El Dorado County has burned about 7.7 square kilometers (3 square miles) and was 5% contained as of Friday evening, according to Cal Fire. The fire is burning in steep and rugged terrain and threatens 4,017 structures. The weather is expected to remain hot and dry through the weekend.
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