Can tech help solve the Los Angeles homeless crisis? Finding shelter may someday be a click away

LOS ANGELES — Billions of dollars have been spent on efforts to get homeless people off the streets in California, but outdated computer systems with error-filled data are all too often unable to provide even basic information like where a shelter bed is open on any given night, inefficiencies that can lead to dire consequences.

The problem is especially acute in Los Angeles, where more than 45,000 people — many suffering from serious mental illness, substance addictions or both — live in litter-strewn encampments that have spread into virtually every neighborhood, and where rows of rusting RVs line entire blocks.

Even in the state that is home to Silicon Valley, technology has not kept up with the long-running crisis. In an age when anyone can book a hotel room or rent a car with a few strokes on a mobile phone, no system exists that provides a comprehensive listing of available shelter beds in Los Angeles County, home to more than 1 in 5 unhoused people in the U.S.

Mark Goldin, chief technology officer for Better Angels United, a nonprofit group, described L.A.’s technology as “systems that don’t talk to one another, lack of accurate data, nobody on the same page about what’s real and isn’t real.”

The systems can’t answer “exactly how many people are out there at any given time. Where are they?” he said.

The ramifications for people living on the streets could mean whether someone sleeps another night outside or not, a distinction that can be life-threatening.

“They are not getting the services to the people at the time that those people either need the service, or are mentally ready to accept the services,” said Adam Miller, a tech entrepreneur and CEO of Better Angels.

The problems were evident at a filthy encampment in the city’s Silver Lake neighborhood, where Sara Reyes, executive director of SELAH Neighborhood Homeless Coalition, led volunteers distributing water, socks and food to homeless people, including one who appeared unconscious.

She gave out postcards with the address of a nearby church where the coalition provides hot food and services. A small dog bolted out of a tent, frantically barking, while a disheveled man wearing a jacket on a blistering hot day shuffled by a stained mattress.

At the end of the visit Reyes began typing notes into her mobile phone, which would later be retyped into a coalition spreadsheet and eventually copied again into a federal database.

“Anytime you move it from one medium to another, you can have data loss. We know we are not always getting the full picture,” Reyes said. The “victims are the people the system is supposed to serve.”

The technology has sputtered while the homeless population has soared. Some ask how can you combat a problem without reliable data to know what the scope is? An annual tally of homeless people in the city recently found a slight decline in the population, but some experts question the accuracy of the data, and tents and encampments can be seen just about everywhere.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has pinpointed shortcomings with technology as among the obstacles she faces in homelessness programs and has described the city’s efforts to slow the crisis as “building the plane while flying it.”

She said earlier this year that three to five homeless people die every day on the streets of L.A.

On Thursday, Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered state agencies to start removing homeless encampments on state land in his boldest action yet following a Supreme Court ruling allowing cities to enforce bans on sleeping outside in public spaces.

There is currently no uniform practice for caseworkers to collect and enter information into databases on the homeless people they interview, including notes taken on paper. The result: Information can be lost or recorded incorrectly, and it becomes quickly outdated with the lag time between interviews and when it’s entered into a database. 

The main federal data system, known as the Homeless Management Information System, or HMIS, was designed as a desktop application, making it difficult to operate on a mobile phone.

“One of the reasons the data is so bad is because what the case managers do by necessity is they take notes, either on their phones or on scrap pieces of paper or they just try to remember it, and they don’t typically input it until they get back to their desk” hours, days, a week or even longer afterward, Miller said.

Every organization that coordinates services for homeless people uses an HMIS program to comply with data collection and reporting standards mandated by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. But the systems are not all compatible.

Sam Matonik, associate director of data at L.A.-based People Assisting the Homeless, a major service provider, said his organization is among those that must reenter data because Los Angeles County uses a proprietary data system that does not talk to the HMIS system.  

“Once you’re manually double-entering things, it opens the door for all sorts of errors,” Matonik said. “Small numerical errors are the difference between somebody having shelter and not.”

Bevin Kuhn, acting deputy chief of analytics for the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, the agency that coordinates homeless housing and services in Los Angeles County, said work is underway to create a database of 23,000 beds by the end of the year as part of technology upgrades.

For case managers, “just seeing … the general bed availability is challenging,” Kuhn said.

Among other changes is a reboot of the HMIS system to make it more compatible with mobile apps and developing a way to measure if timely data is being entered by case workers, Kuhn said.

It’s not uncommon for a field worker to encounter a homeless person in crisis who needs immediate attention, which can create delays in collecting data. Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority aims for data to be entered in the system within 72 hours, but that benchmark is not always met.

In hopes of filling the void, Better Angels assembled a team experienced in building large-scale software applications. They are constructing a mobile-friendly prototype for outreach workers — to be donated to participating groups in Los Angeles County — that will be followed by systems for shelter operators and a comprehensive shelter bed database.

Since homeless people are transient and difficult to locate for follow-up services, one feature would create a map of places where an individual had been encountered, allowing case managers to narrow the search.

Services are often available, but the problem is linking them with a homeless person in real time. So, a data profile would show services the individual received in the past, medical issues and make it easy to contact health workers, if needed.

As a secondary benefit — if enough agencies and providers agree to participate — the software could produce analytical information and data visualizations, spotlighting where homeless people are moving around the county, or concentrations of where homeless people have gathered.

One key goal for the prototypes: ease of use even for workers with scant digital literacy. Information entered into the app would be immediately unloaded to the database, eliminating the need for redundant reentries while keeping information up to date.

Time is often critical. Once a shelter bed is located, there is a 48-hour window for the spot to be claimed, which Reyes says happens only about half the time. The technology is so inadequate, the coalition sometimes doesn’t learn a spot is open until it has expired.

She has been impressed with the speed of the Better Angels app, which is in testing, and believes it would cut down on the number of people who miss the housing window, as well as create more reliability for people trying to obtain services.

“I’m hoping Better Angels helps us put the human back into this whole situation,” Reyes said.  

Putin warns the United States of Cold War-style missile crisis 

Moscow — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday warned the United States that if Washington deployed long-range missiles in Germany, then Russia would station similar missiles in striking distance of the West.

The United States said on July 10 that it would start deploying long-range missiles in Germany from 2026 in preparation for a longer-term deployment that will include SM-6, Tomahawk cruise missiles and developmental hypersonic weapons.

In a speech to sailors from Russia, China, Algeria and India to mark Russian navy day in the former imperial capital of St. Petersburg, Putin warned the United States that it risked triggering a Cold War-style missile crisis with the move.

“The flight time to targets on our territory of such missiles, which in the future may be equipped with nuclear warheads, will be about 10 minutes,” Putin said.

“We will take mirror measures to deploy, taking into account the actions of the United States, its satellites in Europe and in other regions of the world.”

Putin, who sent his army into Ukraine in 2022, casts the war as part of a historic struggle with the West, which he says humiliated Russia after Soviet Union fell in 1991 by encroaching on what he considers Moscow’s sphere of influence.

Ukraine and the West say Putin is engaged in an imperial-style land grab. They have vowed to defeat Russia, which currently controls about 18% of Ukraine, including Crimea, and parts of four regions in eastern Ukraine.

Russia says the lands, once part of the Russian empire, are now again part of Russia and that they will never be given back.

Cold War?

Russian and U.S. diplomats say their diplomatic relations are worse even that during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and both Moscow and Washington have urged de-escalation while both have made steps toward escalation.

Putin said that the United States was stoking tensions and had transferred Typhon missile systems to Denmark and the Philippines, and compared the U.S. plans to the NATO decision to deploy Pershing II launchers in Western Europe in 1979.

The Soviet leadership, including General Secretary Yuri Andropov, feared Pershing II deployments were part of an elaborate U.S.-led plan to decapitate the Soviet Union by taking out its political and military leadership.

“This situation is reminiscent of the events of the Cold War related to the deployment of American medium–range Pershing missiles in Europe,” Putin said.

The Pershing II, designed to deliver a variable-yield nuclear warhead, was deployed to West Germany in 1983.

In 1983, the ailing Andropov and the KGB interpreted a series of U.S. moves including the Pershing II deployment and a major NATO exercise as signs the West was about to launch a preemptive strike on the Soviet Union.

Putin repeated an earlier warning that Russia could resume production of intermediate and shorter range nuclear-capable missiles and then consider where to deploy them after the United States brought similar missiles to Europe and Asia.

US upgrades military command in Japan, warns of China threats  

TOKYO — The United States announced plans Sunday for a major revamp of its military command in Japan to deepen coordination with its ally’s forces, as the two countries labeled China the “greatest strategic challenge” facing the region. 

The announcement followed security talks in Tokyo between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and their respective Japanese counterparts, Yoko Kamikawa and Minoru Kihara. 

“The United States will upgrade the U.S. Forces Japan to a joint force headquarters with expanded missions and operational responsibilities,” Austin told reporters after the so-called “2+2” talks. 

“This will be the most significant change to U.S Forces Japan since its creation and one of the strongest improvements in our military ties with Japan in 70 years.” 

The ministers said in a joint statement that the new command structure would be implemented in parallel with Tokyo’s own plans to establish a joint command for its forces by March 2025. 

The overhaul is among several measures taken to address what the countries said was an “evolving security environment,” noting various threats from superpower China. 

The statement criticized what it called Beijing’s “provocative” behavior in the South and East China Seas, joint military exercises with Russia and the rapid expansion of its nuclear weapons arsenal. 

Beijing’s “foreign policy seeks to reshape the international order for its own benefit at the expense of others,” the ministers said in their statement. 

“Such behavior is a serious concern to the alliance and the entire international community and represents the greatest strategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.” 

China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Reuters. 

Austin told reporters the command upgrade was “not based on any threat from China” but reflected the allies’ desire to work more closely and effectively. 

Japan provides a base for the U.S. to project military power in Asia, hosting 54,000 American troops, hundreds of U.S. aircraft and Washington’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier strike group. 

Prompted by China’s growing military might and regular missile tests by nuclear-armed North Korea, Japan has in recent years shifted dramatically from decades of postwar pacifism. In 2022 it unveiled a plan to double defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product. 

The new U.S. command in Japan will be headed by a three-star general, a U.S. official said, however Austin said the U.S. would not rule out appointing a four-star commander to Japan in the future as it has in neighboring South Korea. 

Nuclear umbrella 

For the first time, the ministers also discussed “extended deterrence,” a term used to describe the U.S. commitment to use its nuclear forces to deter attacks on allies. 

It is sensitive subject in Japan, which has pushed for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and is the only country to have suffered atomic bomb attacks. 

The countries discussed reinforcing extended deterrence to promote regional stability and deter the outbreak of conflict, according to an official readout that was scant in detail. 

“Amidst increasingly severe nuclear threats in the vicinity of Japan, it is important to further strengthen extended deterrence. I welcome the continuously deepening discussion on this matter,” Japan’s Kamikawa told reporters at the outset of the talks. 

The allies also expressed deep concern about Russia’s procurement of ballistic missiles from North Korea to aid its war in Ukraine and the potential for Moscow to transfer weapons of mass destruction or missile-related technology to Pyongyang. 

North Korea has vowed to “totally destroy” its enemies in case of war, North Korean state media KCNA reported Sunday. 

Austin and Kihara also met South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik, signing an agreement to “institutionalize” trilateral cooperation through efforts like real-time sharing of North Korean missile warning data and joint military exercises. 

The Biden administration has been pushing for deeper cooperation between Tokyo and Seoul, whose strained relations date back to Japan’s 1910-1945 occupation of Korea. 

“This memorandum strengthens the cooperation between Japan, the United States and South Korea, making our partnership unshakable, no matter how the international situation changes,” Japan’s Kihara told reporters after the trilateral meeting. 

Washington also wants to tap Japanese industry to help ease pressure on U.S. weapons makers stretched by demand generated by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. 

Tokyo and Washington are pursuing various collaborations in this field, including advancing missile co-production efforts as well as building supply chain resilience and facilitating ship and aircraft repair. 

However, one flagship project — a plan to use Japanese factories to boost production of Patriot air defense missiles — is being delayed by a shortage of a critical component manufactured by Boeing, Reuters reported this month. 

After leaving Tokyo, Blinken and Austin will hold security talks with another Asian ally, the Philippines, as the Biden administration seeks to counter an increasingly bold China. 

Blinken met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Laos on Saturday and repeated that Washington and its partners want to maintain a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” according to a U.S. readout of the meeting. 

Harris says she’s the underdog, touts her campaign as ‘people powered’

PITTSFIELD, Mass. — Vice President Kamala Harris used her first fundraiser since becoming the Democrats’ likely White House nominee to excoriate the Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump as determined to roll back Americans’ freedoms.

Harris traveled to Pittsfield, Massachusetts, on Saturday where she was expected to raise more than $1.4 million, her campaign announced, from an audience of hundreds at the Colonial Theatre. That would be $1 million more than the original goal set for the event.

She told an excited group of supporters that she entered the race as an underdog, while expressing confidence that her surging campaign could defeat Trump.

“I will fight to move our nation forward,” Harris said. “Donald Trump intends to take our country backwards.”

Harris also poked at Trump, and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, for lobbing peculiar attacks at her and other Democrats. The vice president appeared to be referring to a 2021 interview with Vance in which he slammed some prominent Democrats without biological children, including Harris, as “childless cat ladies” with “no direct stake” in America.

“You may have noticed Donald Trump has been resorting to some wild lies about my record and some of what he and his running mate are saying, it is just plain weird,” Harris said. “I mean that’s the box you put that in, right?”

Harris’ branding the Republican ticket as “weird” appears to be part of a concerted effort by her campaign to spotlight some of Trump and Vance’s rhetoric as questionable. Earlier this week, the Harris campaign on the social media site X called Vance “weird and creepy” for some of his stances on women’s reproductive rights. Trump, meanwhile, has raised the fictional serial killer Hannibal Lecter from the film Silence of the Lambs in stump speeches.

“These guys are just weird,” Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat who is on Harris’ shortlist for vice president, said in an MSNBC interview earlier this week. “They’re running for He-Man Women-Haters Club or something.”

Supporters for the fundraiser included musician James Taylor and many of the state’s Democratic heavyweights, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey, former Gov. Deval Patrick and Rep. Richie Neal.

Harris took in more than $100 million in donations in the first 48 hours after Biden quit the race, a presidential record, and aides said she has continued to raise money at a steady clip.

“This is a people-powered campaign,” Harris said. “And we have momentum.”

Harris, a former prosecutor in her home state of California, also derided Trump for his legal troubles. She noted his recent conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records in New York, a jury finding the former president of being liable for sexual abusing advice columnist E. Jean Carroll in 1996, and a $25 million settlement paid to attendees of the now-defunct real estate seminar called Trump University.

“I’ve been dealing with people like him my entire career,” Harris said. She added, “So in this campaign, and I say in all seriousness, I will proudly put my record against his any day.”

Harris began her remarks with praise for Biden, who opted to end his reelection bid and endorse Harris last weekend after his campaign fell into a tailspin following his disastrous June 27 debate performance against Trump.

She called Biden’s legacy of accomplishment over the past three and a half years “unmatched in modern history.”

The vice president told the fundraiser crowd that her economic agenda would sharply contrast with Trump’s, who she claimed is squarely focused on lowering tax rates for wealthy Americans and improving the bottom lines of corporations.

“Building up the middle class will be the defining goal of my presidency,” Harris said. She added, “Let us make no mistake, this campaign is not just about us versus Donald Trump. Our campaign has always been about two very different visions for our nation.”

У Києві понад 50 військовим і цивільним медикам вручили «Орден Святого Пантелеймона» 

Медики відзначені «За мужність, стійкість у боротьбі за здоровʼя українців, за свободу і незалежність України у війні з російським агресором»

Blinken pays respects in Vietnam after death of Communist Party leader

HANOI, Vietnam — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Vietnam on Saturday to pay his respects following the death of Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong, underlining warmer ties between the countries a half-century since they fought a brutal war.

Blinken arrived in Hanoi late Saturday after attending a regional summit in Laos and visited the family home of Trong, a Marxist-Leninist ideologue who as party chief was Vietnam’s most powerful figure for 13 years and who died last week at 80.

Trong’s “bamboo diplomacy” trod a delicate balancing act between rival superpowers the United States and Communist neighbor China, helping to elevate Vietnam’s ties with both of its two biggest trade partners.

Blinken greeted Trong’s family before lighting an incense stick in front of a shrine displaying the general secretary’s photo. He then stood for a moment with his hands clasped in a show of respect.

He wrote a page-long message in a condolence book and, during conversations with Trong’s family, conveyed the condolences of President Joe Biden.

Trong’s two-day state funeral, which ended Friday, drew more than 250,000 Vietnamese mourners in ceremonies in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and his home in Dong Anh on the outskirts of the capital, state media reported.

Blinken’s brief visit comes at a sensitive time for U.S.-Vietnam relations, which have improved of late given shared concerns about China’s growing regional clout and interest from U.S. investors in a country with an economy that grew an average 5.8% annually during Trong’s time in office.

During a visit by Biden to Hanoi last year, the U.S. and Vietnam upgraded ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has promoted Vietnam as a “friend-shoring” destination to shift U.S. supply chains away from China.

On Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department is set to announce whether to upgrade Vietnam to market economy status, something Hanoi has long sought.

The upgrade is opposed by U.S. steelmakers, Gulf Coast shrimpers, honey farmers and members of the U.S. Congress representing them, but backed by retailers and some other business groups.

After visiting Trong’s home, Blinken also met Vietnam’s president, To Lam, the former internal security agency chief who has assumed Trong’s duties, and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.

Blinken told Lam Trong was a “visionary leader” who built a lasting bridge between the two countries and showed the world they could move forward despite their difficult past.

In his meeting with the prime minister, Blinken said one of the highlights of the Biden administration was its elevation of its strategic ties with Hanoi.

Blinken criticizes China’s ‘escalating actions’ at sea ahead of Wang meeting

VIENTIANE, Laos — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, shortly before meeting his Chinese counterpart on Saturday, urged Southeast Asian countries to help address challenges including Beijing’s “escalating and unlawful actions” in the South China Sea.

Blinken also called the civil war in Myanmar “heartbreaking” and stressed to foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, the need to work together to tackle issues such as the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine and North Korea’s missile programs.

Although Blinken singled out China over its actions against U.S. defense ally the Philippines in the South China Sea, he lauded both countries for their diplomacy hours after Manila completed a resupply mission to troops in an area also claimed by Beijing.

The troop presence has for years angered China, which has clashed repeatedly with the Philippines over Manila’s missions to troops on a navy ship grounded at the Second Thomas Shoal, causing regional concern about an escalation.

The two sides this week reached an arrangement over how to conduct those missions.

“We are pleased to take note of the successful resupply today of the Second Thomas shoal, which is the product of an agreement reached between the Philippines and China,” Blinken told ASEAN counterparts.

“We applaud that and hope and expect to see that it continues going forward.”

Gaza situation ‘dire’

Blinken will hold talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi after Saturday’s security-focused ASEAN Regional Forum in Laos, which will be attended by top diplomats of major powers including Russia, Australia, Japan, the European Union, Britain and others.

Blinken also said the United States was “working intensely every single day” to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza and find a path to more enduring peace and security.

His remarks follow those of Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, who said the need for sustainable peace was urgent. “We cannot continue closing our eyes to see the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza,” she said.

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong urged Myanmar’s military rulers to take a different path and end an intensifying civil war, pressing the generals to abide by their commitment to follow ASEAN’s five-point consensus peace plan.

The conflict pits Myanmar’s well-equipped military against a loose alliance of ethnic minority rebel groups and an armed resistance movement that has been gaining ground and testing the generals’ ability to govern.

The junta has largely ignored the ASEAN-promoted peace effort, and the 10-member bloc, of which Myanmar is a member, has hit a wall as all sides refuse to enter into dialogue.

“We see the instability, the insecurity, the deaths, the pain that is being caused by the conflict,” Wong told reporters.

“Fundamentally, my message from Australia to the regime is this is not sustainable for you or for your people. And we would urge them to take a different path and to reflect the five-point consensus that ASEAN has put in place,” Wong said.

An estimated 2.6 million people have been displaced by fighting. The junta has been condemned for excessive force in its air strikes on civilian areas and accused of atrocities, which it has dismissed as Western disinformation.

Does a US president have the power to destroy democracy?

In the U.S. presidential campaign, Democrats say former President Donald Trump will destroy democratic institutions if he’s reelected in November. But Trump’s Republican Party says it is Democrats who are thwarting democracy by pressuring President Joe Biden to quit the race after party primary elections were over. VOA’s Dora Mekouar explores whether any one president really has the power to destroy democracy.

Job losses, protests present difficulties for Chinese Communist Party

Auckland, New Zealand — Job losses and wage cuts from China’s economic downturn are hitting key industries, according to the South China Morning Post, and analysts say the situation could lead to political difficulties for the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Rights groups say the situation has triggered a sharp increase in protests and strikes around the country – not enough to threaten the rule of the CCP or President Xi Jinping, but enough that an analyst sees a “hidden danger” for Chinese authorities unless they can rejuvenate the economy.

Mr. Wang, in his early 40s, lives in Bao’an District, Shenzhen, in southern China. He was formerly employed at a well-known business travel platform but was laid off earlier this year. He prefers not to disclose his full name or the company’s name due to the matter’s sensitivity.

Wang tells VOA, “In the area of business travel software, our company is at the forefront of China in terms of R&D and sales, and it is also one of the top 500 private enterprises in China.  But now many companies have run out of money, our sales have plummeted, and the layoffs finally fell on our group of old employees.”

He compares China’s economic slowdown to a high-speed train suddenly hitting the brakes, and everyone on the train hitting the ground, even those better-off, like himself.

China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate has been dropping since hitting 10.6% in 2010, well before the COVID pandemic, which cut growth to 2.2% in 2020, according to the World Bank.

The global lender says growth bounced back to 8.4% in 2021 but then fell to 3% in 2022 before a moderate recovery to 5.2% in 2023.  The World Bank expects China’s growth rate to drop back below 5% this year.

Several Chinese workers VOA talked with said they were unprepared for the economy to slow so quickly.

Two large IT companies laid off Mr. Liu in Guangzhou in the past two years, and his life has turned gloomy.  He also prefers not to disclose his full name due to the matter’s sensitivity. Still struggling to find a job, Liu has a second child, and his wife was diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer.

“When I was laid off for the first time, I got decent severance pay because I had worked there for a long time,” says Liu. “Later, when I came to a large company, I was laid off again, and I felt that I was quite unlucky.  Fortunately, we don’t have too much debt.”

According to South Morning China Post’s (SCMP) July analysis of the annual reports of 23 top Chinese companies, 14 of them carried out large layoffs in 2023, with technology and real estate companies among the worst hit amid a glut of empty buildings.

The online newspaper reports that one company, Poly Real Estate, laid off 16.3% of its workforce in the past year, or 11,000 people; Greenland Holdings, a Shanghai-based real estate company, also saw a 14.5% drop in the number of its employees.

The SCMP reports online retail giant Alibaba cut 12.8% of its workforce, or about 20,000 jobs, in the 2023 fiscal year, while technology conglomerate Tencent’s headcount fell 2.8% in 2023 to about 3,000, and in the first quarter of 2024, the company laid off another 630 people.

In addition, Chinese internet tech firms ByteDance, JD.com, Kuaishou, Didi Chuxing, Bilibili and Weibo have all conducted layoffs this year.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is painting a rosier picture this month, calling employment and the national economy “generally stable” and citing “steady progress.”  In June, it showed only a 0.2% drop in urban jobs compared with the same period last year.

The NBS also claimed China’s lowest youth unemployment rate this year, 13.2%, after it removed students from the calculation.  The new methodology was introduced after China hit a record high 21.3% youth unemployment in June 2023, prompting authorities to suspend publication of the statistic.

Chen Yingxuan, a policy analyst at the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security Studies who specializes in Chinese unemployment, tells VOA that Beijing’s job worries have shifted from fresh graduates and the working class to middle class and senior managers.

She says many have faced salary cuts or layoffs to reduce costs and increase efficiency as China struggles with a weak housing market, sluggish consumption, high government debt, foreign investment withdrawals, and trade barriers.

Even people with relatively stable incomes, such as workers at state-owned enterprises, are feeling the pinch.

Ms. Zhang, who works for a state-owned commercial bank in Guangzhou and prefers not to disclose her full name due to the matter’s sensitivity, says many bank employees are seeing paychecks shrink.

“State owned banks such as China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, or joint-stock banks, are now cutting salaries, let alone urban commercial banks in many places,” she tells VOA.  “Salary cuts already started last year, and it seems to be worse this year.” 

She projects the cuts will be 20% to 30% by the end of the year.

In July, China’s 31 provincial-level administrative regions issued regulations calling for party and government organs to “live a tight life,” focusing on budget cuts and reductions in public spending.

Analysts say further job and wage cuts could lead to intensified protests and strikes, leading to greater instability.

Rights group China Labor Bulletin (CLB) in 2023 counted 1,794 strike incidents in China, more than double the number in 2022.

In the past six months alone, the group documented about 1,200 incidents in protest of the wage cuts, unpaid wages, unforeseen layoffs, and unfair compensation, a more than 50% increase from the same period in 2023.

CLB estimates “only 5% to 10% of all collective actions of workers have been recorded,” suggesting many more protests are taking place.

But Chen of the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security Studies says the wage cuts and unemployment have not yet been severe enough to spark large-scale protests that threaten the power of the ruling party or President Xi.

“Although there has been an increase in protests, they are still relatively sporadic. There are no large-scale incidents, and local governments can easily quell them,” she says.  “So, for the legitimacy of the CCP and Xi’s third term, it is more of a hidden danger than an imminent crisis.”

While protests in China are usually by working class people, Wang notes the economic pain is spreading to other, more influential groups.

“Whether for blue-collar, white-collar, or even gold-collar workers, the economic losses are now very large,” says Wang.  “The worse the economy and the more emergencies there are, the more the CCP will suppress it with high pressure. It’s a vicious circle, where people suffer more, and stability is more costly.”

Meanwhile, analysts say Chinese authorities are struggling to come up with a plan to reverse the unemployment and wage cutting trend.

The communiqué of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, released on July 18, mentioned employment only once, saying “it is necessary to improve the income distribution system and the employment priority policy.”