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JOHANNESBURG — African leaders, including South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, are heading to St. Petersburg this week for the second Russia-Africa Summit, as an isolated Moscow looks to shore up its influence in a key region.

Analysts told VOA that high on the agenda will be President Vladimir Putin’s nixing of an arrangement that allowed Ukrainian grain to reach foreign markets.

Putin will be under pressure to reassure them after he terminated a deal allowing safe passage of Ukrainian grain exports earlier this month — a move criticized by the African Union Commission as something that could negatively affect food security, especially in Africa.

The move has riled African governments, with one senior Kenyan official saying the axing of the agreement is “a stab [in] the back.”

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said the decision not to renew the deal has already caused an increase in global food prices, which could hurt parts of Africa.

“Our very hope is that as the African leaders go to the Russia-Africa Summit, they can actually be able to have a much more sound conversation about the Black Sea grain deal — amongst other things that of course will be negotiated there — so that this can go back on the table and the exports can go,” Sihlobo said.

Earlier this week Putin himself sought to reassure African countries, relations with which have become increasingly important given Russia’s isolation by the West since its invasion of Ukraine last year. Many African countries have been hesitant to take sides in the conflict.

In a statement, Putin promised that Russia could replace the Ukrainian grain itself “both on a commercial and free-of-charge basis.”

Cameron Hudson, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said Putin is likely to use the St. Petersburg meeting, which starts Thursday, to appeal to African leaders’ direct needs.

“Obviously he’s trying to win back some friends from his exit from the grain deal,” Hudson said, “and also show that he has the power to kind of cut bilateral deals with African countries that put them frankly more in his need, which is exactly the position that he wants to be in.”

Analysts have noted that Russia has an outsized influence in Africa comparative to its trade and investment clout. This is sometimes because of the former Soviet Union’s support for the region’s 20th century liberation movements, and because of shared anti-Western sentiment.

At the first Russia-Africa Summit in 2019, Putin vowed to double trade with Africa to $40 billion over five years. Instead, it has been sitting at about $18 billion a year, compared with China’s record $282 billion worth of trade with Africa.

Despite its relatively minor economic clout, Moscow is keen to use the summit to project political heft, said Denys Reva, a researcher for the Institute of Security Studies in South Africa.

“Despite the fact that the level of investment has been low, the level of trade has been low, Russia has very cleverly learned, or realized, some of the problems that exist between Western states, the European Union and the U.S., and Africa, and has positioned itself, in a way, to separate itself from these traditional partners,” Reva said.

While the summit aims to position Russia as a global player, Russian media reported that fewer than half of the African countries attending are sending their heads of state.

Analysts also said the issue of the Wagner Group — the mercenary group that recently attempted a mutiny in Russia and which has operations in several African nations — will likely be raised on the summit’s sidelines.
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Snaking lines for fuel, empty shelves in food stores, angry street protests — those were common scenes in Sri Lanka last year when the country became bankrupt.

Now, the long waits outside fuel stations have gone, markets are again stacked with food and the streets of the capital Colombo are calm.

A year after Sri Lanka’s economic collapse brought a new government, the island nation is past the worst of the crisis. But the country’s economic woes are far from over.

For many the dilemma is that while food is now available, it is unaffordable.

Costs of all basics — food, fuel, electricity, and medicines have spiraled, taking a huge toll on millions in lower income groups.

“What we see now is the most vulnerable communities struggling and still facing hardships in getting three meals a day. The socio-economic indices indicate that still the crisis is far from over and it’s a long path to recovery,” according to Bhavani Fonseka at the Center for Policy Alternatives in Colombo.

Among the scores of community kitchens that sprang up across the country last year to address the hunger crisis were those run by The Voice for Voiceless Foundation in Colombo. It continues to provide about 600 meals a day.

“There is still a huge need,” the foundation’s national director, Moses Akash, told VOA. “What we find is that with prices of electricity and other utilities having risen hugely, people have lesser money left to buy food.”

The organization has cut back its operations due to a shortage of funds and spiraling food prices, said Akash. “We now focus on giving meals to children because many were facing malnourishment as families were unable to afford items such as milk or eggs.”

The World Food Program says the crisis that the country faced last year has been alleviated but has not gone away. According to the WFP, about 17% now face food insecurity, compared with about one quarter of the population last year. That adds up to about four million people in the nation of 22 million.

“The most vulnerable cross section in terms of food insecurity are people relying on social protection assistance, unskilled workers relying on daily wages and households with lower levels of education,” Abdur Rahim Siddiqui, Country Director at the World Food Program in Sri Lanka told VOA.

However, there are signs of revival in some sectors. Tourists have begun returning to the country’s pristine beaches, bringing back jobs in a crucial industry that has long been the backbone of Sri Lanka’s economy.

On a recent visit to India, President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took charge after protestors stormed his predecessor’s home and office a year ago, expressed optimism about his country’s economic revival.

“I have set Sri Lanka firmly on a path of economic reform and Sri Lanka is already witnessing the stabilizing outcomes of these measures and the revival of confidence both within and outside the country,” Wickremesinghe said during a recent visit to New Delhi.

Sri Lanka turned the corner after it secured a bailout package of about $ 3 billion from the International Monetary Fund in March. But while the IMF loan extended a lifeline and removed Sri Lanka’s “bankrupt” tag, it came with tough conditions that require imposing higher taxes and steep cuts to government spending and welfare programs.

The next task for the country is to restructure both its domestic and foreign debt on which it defaulted last year. With more stringent reforms still to come, there is uncertainty over what lies ahead.

“How does it impact state-owned enterprises for example? Would people lose their jobs? There are a lot of conversations now as to what the restructuring will mean for people’s pensions and savings,” said Fonseka.

Analysts say while the reforms will lead to more pain and fuel popular resentment, Sri Lanka will have to stay the course.

“The worst is seemingly over but it can come back if the present trends don’t continue, if the government of the day does not plan and execute the policies it has outlined in a judicious manner,” according to Harsh Pant, Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.

That means that for millions, the tentative signs of economic recovery will bring little cheer in the foreseeable future.

The economic crisis was blamed on the COVID-19 pandemic and economic mismanagement by former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government.

Many are also disappointed that demands for political change and accountability have failed to materialize in the country that last year witnessed its biggest street protests in decades, with anger directed at the former president and his family over allegations of corruption and mismanagement. The Rajapaksas had controlled the affairs of the country for the most part of the last two decades.

The protests ended after Rajapaksa resigned. The new president Wickremesinghe took a tough approach to the demonstrations and there is still simmering anger in the country. Many protestors were disappointed when he came to the helm.

Some question whether the practices that led to the crisis have changed.

“The demand was for a system change that would ensure greater transparency and political accountability. But has there really been change or is the new administration a new avatar of the old?” said Fonseka.

She adds that there are still many questions about accountability regarding economic crimes and corruption.
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WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2023 global growth estimates slightly given resilient economic activity in the first quarter, but warned that persistent challenges were dampening the medium-term outlook.

The IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook said inflation was coming down and acute stress in the banking sector had receded, but the balance of risks facing the global economy remained tilted to the downside and credit was tight.

The global lender said it now projected global real GDP growth of 3.0% in 2023, up 0.2 percentage point from its April forecast, but it left its outlook for 2024 unchanged, also at 3.0%.

The 2023-2024 growth forecast remains weak by historical standards, well below the annual average of 3.8% seen in 2000-2019, largely due to weaker manufacturing in advanced economies, and it could stay at that level for years.

“We’re on track, but we’re not out of the woods,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told Reuters in an interview, noting that the upgrade was driven largely by first-quarter results. “What we are seeing when we look five years out is actually close to 3.0%, maybe a little bit above 3.0%. This is a significant slowdown compared to what we had pre-COVID.”

This was also related to the aging of the global population, especially in countries such as China, Germany and Japan, he said. New technologies could boost productivity in coming years, but that in turn could be disruptive to labor markets.

Debt distress could spread

The outlook is “broadly stable” in emerging market and developing economies for 2023-2024, with growth of 4.0% expected in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, the IMF said. But it noted that credit availability is tight and that there was a risk that debt distress could spread to a wider group of economies.

The world is in a better place now, the IMF said, noting the World Health Organization’s decision to end the global health emergency surrounding COVID-19, and with shipping costs and delivery times now back to pre-pandemic levels.

“But forces that hindered growth in 2022 persist,” the IMF said, citing still-high inflation that was eroding household buying power, higher interest rates that have raised the cost of borrowing and tighter access to credit as a result of the banking strains that emerged in March.

“International trade and indicators of demand and production in manufacturing all point to further weakness,” the IMF said, noting that excess savings built up during the pandemic are declining in advanced economies, especially in the United States, implying “a slimmer buffer to protect against shocks.”

While immediate concerns about the health of the banking sector — which were more acute in April — had subsided, financial sector turbulence could resume as markets adjust to further tightening by central banks, it said.

The impact of higher interest rates was especially evident in poorer countries, driving debt costs higher and limiting room for priority investments. As a result, output losses compared with pre-pandemic forecasts remain large, especially for the world’s poorest nations, the IMF said.

The IMF forecast that global headline inflation would fall to 6.8% in 2023 from 8.7% in 2022, dropping to 5.2% in 2024, but core inflation would decline more gradually, reaching 6.0% in 2023 from 6.5% in 2022 and easing to 4.7% in 2024.

Gourinchas told Reuters it could take until the end of 2024 or early 2025 until inflation came down to central bankers’ targets and the current cycle of monetary tightening would end.

The IMF warned that inflation could rise if the war in Ukraine intensified, citing concern about Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain initiative, or if more extreme temperature increases caused by the El Nino weather pattern pushed up commodity prices. That in turn could trigger further rate hikes.

The IMF said world trade growth is declining and will reach just 2.0% in 2023 before rising to 3.7% in 2024, but both growth rates are well below the 5.2% clocked in 2022.

The IMF raised its outlook for the United States, the world’s largest economy, forecasting growth of 1.8% in 2023 versus 1.6% in April as labor markets remained strong.

It left its forecast for growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy, unchanged at 5.2% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024. But it warned that China’s recovery was underperforming, and a deeper contraction in the real estate sector remained a risk.

The fund cut its outlook for Germany, now forecast to contract 0.3% in 2023 versus a 0.1% contraction in April, but sharply upgraded its forecast for the U.K., now expected to grow 0.4% versus a 0.3% contraction forecast in April.

Euro zone countries are expected to grow 0.9% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024, both up 0.1 percentage point from April.

Japan’s growth was also revised upward by 0.1 percentage point to 1.4% in 2023, but the IMF left its outlook for 2024 unchanged at 1.0%.

Inflation remains a focus

The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation continues to weigh on economic activity, the IMF said, adding that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England were expected to raise rates by more than assumed in April, before cutting rates next year.

It said central banks should remain focused on fighting inflation, strengthening financial supervision and risk monitoring. If further strains appeared, countries should provide liquidity quickly, it said.

The fund also advised countries to build fiscal buffers to gird for further shocks and ensure support for the most vulnerable. 

“We have to be very vigilant on the health of the financial sector … because we could have something that basically seizes up very quickly,” Gourinchas said. “There is always a risk that if financial conditions tighten, that can have a disproportionate effect on emerging market and developing economies.”

The IMF said unfavorable inflation data could trigger a sudden rise in market expectations regarding interest rates, which could further tighten financial conditions, putting stress on banks and nonbank institutions — especially those exposed to commercial real estate.

“Contagion effects are possible, and a flight to safety, with an attendant appreciation of reserve currencies, would trigger negative ripple effects for global trade and growth,” the IMF said.

Fragmentation of the global economy given the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions remained another key risk, especially for developing economies, Gourinchas said. This could lead to more restrictions on trade, especially in strategic goods such as critical minerals, cross-border movements of capital, technology and workers, and international payments. 
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Elon Musk has unveiled a new black and white “X” logo to replace Twitter’s famous blue bird as he follows through with a major rebranding of the social media platform he bought for $44 billion last year.

Musk replaced his own Twitter icon with a white X on a black background and posted a picture on Monday of the design projected on Twitter’s San Francisco headquarters.

The X started appearing on the top of the desktop version of Twitter on Monday, but the bird was still dominant across the phone app.

Musk had asked fans for logo ideas and chose one, which he described as minimalist Art Deco, saying it “certainly will be refined.”

“And soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds,” Musk tweeted Sunday.

The X.com web domain now redirects users to Twitter.com, Musk said.

In response to questions about what tweets would be called when the rebranding is done, Musk said they would be called Xs.

Musk, CEO of Tesla, has long been fascinated with the letter. The billionaire is also CEO of rocket company Space Exploration Technologies Corp., commonly known as SpaceX. And in 1999, he founded a startup called X.com, an online financial services company now known as PayPal,

He calls his son with the singer Grimes, whose actual name is a collection of letters and symbols, “X.”

Musk’s Twitter purchase and rebranding are part of his strategy to create what he’s dubbed an ” everything app ” similar to China’s WeChat, which combines video chats, messaging, streaming and payments.

Linda Yaccarino, the longtime NBC Universal executive Musk tapped to be Twitter CEO in May, posted the new logo and weighed in on the change, writing on Twitter that X would be “the future state of unlimited interactivity — centered in audio, video, messaging, payments/banking — creating a global marketplace for ideas, goods, services, and opportunities.”

Experts, however, predicted the new name will confuse much of Twitter’s audience, which has already been souring on the social media platform following a raft of Musk’s other changes. The site also faces new competition from Threads, the new app by Facebook and Instagram parent Meta that directly targets Twitter users.
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