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A ban imposed by India on exports of several categories of rice due to rising domestic prices and fears of a shortfall in the next crop yield could drive up global prices of the grain at a time when food insecurity is already a concern, according to experts. 

India, the world’s largest rice exporter, accounts for 40% of the global rice trade, with its shipments going to about 140 countries.  

Announcing the ban Thursday, the government said that prices in the country had risen by 11.5% over the past year and 3% over the past month.   

In a statement, the Ministry of Consumer Affairs said that it has amended the export policy “in order to ensure adequate availability of non-basmati white rice in the Indian market and to allay the rise in prices in the domestic market.” It said the ban would take effect immediately. 

India’s move came days after Russia backed out of a deal to allow Ukrainian wheat safe passage through the Black Sea, prompting warnings that the action could lead to surging prices.    

“The impact of India’s rice ban is bound to be felt on global prices. This is happening soon after the Black Sea initiative was not renewed. When wheat is undergoing a shock, India banning rice exports creates a further shock in global food grain markets,” Harish Damodaran, agriculture editor at The Indian Express newspaper, told VOA. 

“India used to export about 22.5 million tons. Now about 10 million tons will go out of the international market, so about 40% of our exports will be knocked out. This includes a category whose exports were banned last year,” according to Damodaran.  

India is unlikely to ease the restrictions soon as it grapples with food inflation, according to analysts.  

The increase in food prices is a sensitive issue for the government as the country prepares to hold a series of key state elections later this year and national elections next April. Prices of rice and wheat are of particular concern in a country where cereals are a predominant part of the diet of low-income people. 

India has been tightening farm exports since last year — a ban imposed on wheat exports more than a year ago has not been lifted.  

Analysts say that while India, the world’s second largest rice producer, has sufficient stockpiles of rice for its 1.4 billion people, there are fears that an erratic monsoon season could damage the next paddy crop, which was planted in June and harvested in September.  

Heavy rains in the north of the country in recent weeks triggered floods in key rice growing regions while deficient rains in the south prevented many farmers from planting the crop.   

“We have had severe rains and floods in Punjab and Haryana, and these are the two states that predominantly supply surplus rice to the country,” Devinder Sharma, a farm analyst, told VOA. “The tragedy of southern states is that they don’t have irrigation and therefore they get adversely impacted by a shortfall in rains. So everything could go topsy turvy with the next rice harvest.” 

He also pointed out that there are worries over the “El Nino” effect, which usually causes hot, dry weather and lower rainfall in Asia, where the bulk of the world’s rice crop which needs ample water is grown. That has led to further uncertainty about potential shortages of the crop that is a staple for more than 3 billion people in the world. 

“So the government is right in being very cautious. They don’t want to take any risk,” said Sharma. 

The curbs on rice exports exclude one variety that is mostly exported to Bangladesh and several countries in Africa, which analysts say is a diplomatic move to ensure that the neighboring country with which New Delhi has good ties and African nations — where it is trying to build influence — do not face a significant problem.   

“The rice curbs have been crafted keeping in mind domestic political compulsions and diplomacy,” says Damodaran. 
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A little-publicized clause in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act has companies scrambling to recycle electric vehicle batteries in North America, putting the region at the forefront of a global race to undermine China’s dominance of the field.

The IRA includes a clause that automatically qualifies EV battery materials recycled in the U.S. as American-made for subsidies, regardless of their origin. That is important because it qualifies automakers using U.S.-recycled battery materials for EV production incentives.

Reuters interviewed more than a dozen industry officials and experts who say that is kicking off a U.S. factory building boom, encouraging automakers to research more recyclable batteries, and could eventually make it harder for buyers in developing countries to buy old used EVs.

China handles virtually all EV battery recycling in a global market projected to grow from $11 billion in 2022 to $18 billion by 2028, according to research firm EMR. As more EVs are introduced and age out of the vehicle fleet, that business will grow.

The minerals in those batteries – primarily lithium, cobalt and nickel – are worth on average between 1,000 euros ($1,123) to 2,000 euros per car, BMW sustainability chief Thomas Becker told Reuters.

Those materials could be in short supply within a few years as automakers boost EV production, but “can be recycled infinity times and not lose their power,” said Louie Diaz, vice president at Canadian battery recycling firm Li-Cycle, which received a $375 million U.S government loan for a New York plant slated to open later this year. That funding helped bring forward the investment decision for the plant, Diaz said.

JB Straubel, CEO of Redwood Materials, which was awarded a $2 billion U.S. government loan in February to build out a battery material recycling and remanufacturing complex in Nevada, said the IRA treats recycled battery materials as locally “urban mined,” or materials recovered from scrap rather than obtained from mining.

That has encouraged U.S. companies to move faster on recycling efforts than their counterparts in the European Union, which has focused instead on mandates, including minimum amounts of recycled materials in future EV batteries.

Recycling firms Ascend Elements, Li-Cycle and others are planning European plants in the next few years, but access to funding and the made-in-America incentive means several U.S. plants are already being built.

“What it (the IRA) does is change the demand equation for battery materials,” said Mike O’Kronley, CEO of Ascend Elements, which already has one recycling plant open in Georgia and has received nearly $500 million in Energy Department grants under the infrastructure law for a plant in Kentucky slated to open in late 2023. “We need to keep those valuable materials… so we can put them right back into EVs.”

The race is on to build “closed-loop supply chains” where recycled minerals are put into locally produced new batteries, said Christian Marston, chief technology officer at Altilium Metals, which is building a plant in Bulgaria and plans one in the UK by 2026.

“Everybody wants to control their own supply chain and nobody wants to be reliant on the Chinese,” he said.

However, China still leads the race, announcing tougher standards and increased research support for recyclers last month. After passage last year of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, Chinese officials described the legislation as “anti-globalization” and accused the U.S. of “unilateral bullying.”

Rapid growth

Globally, there are at least 80 companies involved in EV recycling, with more than 50 startups attracting at least $2.7 billion, virtally all in the last six years, from corporate investors including automakers, battery makers and mining giants like Glencore, according to PitchBook.com data.

The volume of EV batteries available for recycling should grow over tenfold by 2030, said consultant Circular Energy Storage. Around 11.3 Gigawatt hours (GWh) of batteries reached end of life in 2022, and that should rise to 138 GWh by 2030 – equivalent to roughly 1.5 million EVs – CES said.

Electric vehicle batteries can last for 10 years or more.

Some industry officials anticipate rapid growth means 40% of battery materials used in new EVs could come from recycled stocks by 2040.

There is little existing U.S. recycling capacity today, and virtually none in Europe.

At a facility in Poole in southern England, car breaker Charles Trent Ltd has built two lines where workers deconstruct wrecked or old vehicles to recycle everything. It has built special containers for EV batteries, which are sold for research or used by retrofitters electrifying fossil-fuel cars, partly because there is nowhere to recycle them.

In Europe, EV batteries are currently shredded into “black mass” that is shipped to China for recycling.

‘Lose nothing’

The race is on to squeeze the best price out of that black mass.

“The one who gets the highest yield at the lowest cost … will win this game,” said Bruno Thompson, CEO of Cambridge, England-based startup The Battery Recycling Company, which plans its first plant in 2024.

Dallas, Texas-based Ecobat, which shreds batteries in Europe and the U.S. for recycling elsewhere, has improved its recovery process so around 70% of battery-cell lithium is available for recycling, said chief commercial officer Thea Soule.

Eventually, Soule said, yields should reach levels close to 90% to 100%.

Getting better yields matters because the EU will mandate minimum amounts of recycled lithium, cobalt and nickel in EV batteries within eight years. The EU will also impose tough conditions on recycling outside Europe.

Those conditions will effectively keep recycling local, said Kurt Vandeputte, senior vice president at Belgian materials firm Umicore.

There are also industry concerns about finding old EVs for recycling. Today, anywhere up to 30% of Europe’s old fossil-fuel cars disappear overseas – to new owners in developing countries or for scrap. Some automakers are trying to figure out how to keep tabs on those EVs.

Nissan has turned to leasing EVs in Japan to maintain control of batteries, while Chinese EV maker Nio leases batteries to customers to retain ownership.

Keeping those minerals in Europe would cut off a cheaper source of transportation for developing countries.

BMW’s sustainability chief Becker said the value of battery materials will hopefully make recycling more attractive than selling vehicles abroad, but Europe must focus on ensuring those EV batteries do not slip away.

“We’ve got to make sure we lose nothing,” Becker said.
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India and Sri Lanka boosted their economic partnership by signing a series of agreements on energy, trade and connectivity projects following talks between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe in New Delhi on Friday.

Wickremesinghe was on his first visit to India since he took charge a year ago after an economic crisis engulfed the country and led to the resignation of his predecessor.

He came to New Delhi as both sides reset a relationship that has been set back by growing Chinese influence in the strategic island nation that lies on India’s southern tip. Before Sri Lanka’s economy collapsed, Beijing had poured in billions of dollars to build infrastructure projects that India feared could affect its security.

India provided aid last year

Ties between Colombo and New Delhi received fresh momentum last year, though, after India extended $4 billion in aid to help the beleaguered country.

Addressing reporters along with Wickremesinghe, Modi said that being a close friend, India had stood “shoulder-to-shoulder” with its neighbor during the crisis and that a prosperous Sri Lanka was key to regional stability.

“Sri Lanka has an important place in our ‘neighborhood first’ policy,” Modi said. “We believe that the security interests and development of India and Sri Lanka are intertwined.”

Wickremesinghe said that his visit had “reinforced trust and confidence for our future prosperity in the modern world.”

In a signal of deepening bilateral ties, the two countries unveiled an economic partnership vision that focused on enhancing connectivity and investments.

Modi said the two sides will conduct feasibility studies on laying a petroleum line between the two countries that would give Sri Lanka access to affordable energy. They also will explore the possibility of building a land bridge. The closest points between the two countries are just 50 kilometers apart.

The two countries also will work to connect their electricity grids and cooperate in the renewable energy sector. New Delhi will develop a port and an economic hub at Trincomalee, on Sri Lanka’s northeastern coast.

The two leaders also expressed support to implement a plan for the Sri Lankan government to share power with the country’s ethnic minority Tamil population that lives in the island’s north and east provinces. The Tamils of Sri Lanka have long had close ties with Tamils living in southern India.

“We hope that the government of Sri Lanka will fulfill the aspirations of the Tamils,” Modi said.

Optimistic about recovery

Wickremesinghe expressed optimism about economic recovery in his country, which secured a $3 billion bailout package from the International Monetary Fund in March.

“I have set Sri Lanka firmly on a path of economic reform,” he said.

For Sri Lanka, a top priority is to get countries like India and China to agree to a debt restructuring plan. Last year, the country defaulted on its $46 billion foreign debt.

But balancing ties with India and China still poses a challenge. Last year, Sri Lanka allowed a Chinese research vessel, Yuan Wang 5, to dock in a port built by Beijing — despite objections by New Delhi, which feared it was a spy ship.

Wickremesinghe’s visit to India, however — his first overseas trip since becoming president — underscores that ties between the two neighbors are again set on a growth trajectory.
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Hybrid work is here to stay, and if cities are to thrive, they must adapt to the new reality that workers will be downtown less often. That’s according to a new report that analyzes the COVID-19 pandemic’s lasting impact on office and retail space.

“What has fundamentally changed is just the broad uptake and the persistence of hybridity,” says Ryan Luby, an associate partner at McKinsey & Company, a management consulting firm that released the report. “And that has knock-on implications for demand for office, for residential, for retail, what kind of space is demanded, where it is demanded, and that has real implications for urban vitality, vibrancy and the kinds of buildings that we demand.”

Now that they aren’t making their daily commutes to downtown offices, people are doing their eating out and shopping elsewhere. The report finds that foot traffic near stores in urban areas is still 10% to 20% lower than pre-pandemic levels, and office attendance is still down by about 30% on average in major cities across the world.

The New York City metropolitan area lost 5% of its population from mid-2020 to mid-2022, while the San Francisco area lost 6%. The numbers suggest that many of the people who left big cities during the pandemic are not moving back, the report said, which presents another challenge for cities trying to bounce back from pandemic-driven losses.

In Washington, the daytime population plunged 82% from February 2020 to February 2021. And a 2023 poll finds that two-thirds of Washington-area workers whose jobs can be done remotely prefer to work from home a majority of the time. Thirty-eight percent of people surveyed said they’d like to work from home all of the time.

City leaders and planners are preparing for a future that adjusts to this new reality.

“About 50 percent of our population can still remote work,” says Salah Czapary, director of the D.C. Mayor’s Office of Nightlife and Culture. “Some neighborhoods have not returned to pre-COVID levels of economic activity. … Our short-term strategy is activating the space, attracting festivals and making it easier for people to close streets — whether it’s for a farmers market or a music festival downtown — doing that to support what has traditionally been our economic engine of the city, which has been downtown.”

Luby, one of the report’s authors, says the most resilient cities have a mixture of office, residential and retail real estate.

“People are coming into those areas for reasons other than work,” he says. “I think the imperative, as we think about it from the public policy perspective, is really to encourage or incentivize what we think about as mixed-use development, in which folks will be present in these areas for reasons other than just work.”

Washington’s city leaders, for example, are looking for ways to meet the moment.

“Our long-term strategy is really attracting new residents to downtown by changing the buildings from commercial to residential,” Czapary says. “That will eventually attract grocery stores and other types of nightlife and restaurants and things that make neighborhoods attractive to live in.”

By 2030, demand for office space will be an average of 13% lower in major cities around the world than it was in 2019, according to the report. San Francisco is the most affected city in the United States in terms of demand for office space, with sale prices per square foot down 24% compared with 2019, while the asking price for rents is 28% lower than in 2019. The report also predicts that demand for retail space in San Francisco will be 17% lower in 2030 than in 2019.

Adjusting to this new reality could take time, Luby says, because people who own office space in major cities are still expecting prices to rebound as they did in pre-pandemic times.

“Because a commercial real estate office, in particular, tends to be on a five- to-10-year lease, you’ve got a slow-motion dynamic playing out,” Luby says. “And until you get buyers and sellers in the market to agree that we’re in a new normal and adjusting prices downwards, it’s really going to be difficult to get at-scale adjust
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