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A Biden administration proposal would force U.S. automakers to sharply increase their production of electric cars and trucks over the next decade, lending greater urgency to the effort to build raw material supply chains that reduce the industry’s dependence on China.

The Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday announced a proposed rule that would place stricter limits on the average tailpipe emissions of vehicles built in the United States. The proposal would reduce the allowable limit by so much that automakers would have no way to comply unless about two-thirds of the vehicles they produce by 2032 are emission-free electric vehicles.

Automakers have generally recognized that EVs represent the future of the industry, but Wednesday’s proposal would greatly accelerate the trend. The proposal, which will be open to public comment before it is finalized, would greatly reduce a leading cause of air pollution in the U.S., as well as the greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming.

“By proposing the most ambitious pollution standards ever for cars and trucks, we are delivering on the Biden-Harris administration’s promise to protect people and the planet, securing critical reductions in dangerous air and climate pollution, and ensuring significant economic benefits like lower fuel and maintenance costs for families,” said EPA Administrator Michael Regan.

The proposal, which would apply to new light-duty vehicles made in 2027 and beyond, would be the strictest environmental standard the federal government has ever applied to automobiles. If it does force the industry to make EVs account for two-thirds of production, it could also exceed President Joe Biden’s previously articulated target of making 50% of new cars either plug-in hybrids or completely emission-free by 2030.

Supply chain questions

Well before the EPA released its proposed rule Wednesday, the Biden administration had been moving to strengthen the EV market in the U.S. and to build a pipeline for raw materials that would reduce the auto industry’s reliance on China for key raw materials.

Accomplishing that reduction will be no small task. According to an analysis by the International Energy Agency last year, China produced three-quarters of the world’s lithium-ion batteries, the key component in the majority of EVs on the road.

China also has a dominant hold on much of the market for the components of those batteries, including lithium, cobalt and graphite. According to the IEA, more than half of the world’s capacity for processing and refining those materials is located in China.

According to the IEA, as of last year, the U.S. accounted for only 10% of EV production worldwide, and just 7% of production capacity for batteries.

Infrastructure projects

Last year’s passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which contained hundreds of billions of dollars in climate-related spending, included the creation of large tax breaks restricted to EVs made at least partly in the U.S. The tax breaks are meant to extend over several years, but the restrictions become tighter as time goes on, creating incentives for manufacturers to “onshore” production to the U.S.

Tax breaks specific to the batteries used in EVs require that the raw materials used to assemble them come from domestic sources or from countries with which the U.S. has existing trade agreements.

Other pieces of legislation meant to spur investment in the U.S., including a major bipartisan infrastructure bill and the CHIPS and Science Act, also contain money and incentives that will help build out electric infrastructure in the U.S.

Achievable goals

Luke Tonachel, senior director for clean vehicles and buildings with the Natural Resources Defense Council, told VOA that building an EV supply chain centered on domestic production and imports from friendly countries is ambitious, but achievable.

Tonachel said the necessary raw materials are available from U.S. allies, but that the capacity for processing them needs to be built domestically. He said the creation of that capacity is already underway.

“There are robust incentives for building out that battery manufacturing and supply chain here in the U.S.,” he said, adding that he believes the administration’s time frame is feasible, especially now that the new standards have created certainty about future demand for EVs.

“It is realistic,” he said. “These are technologies that are known. We can certainly get more economies of scale as we ramp up production.”

Automakers tentative

Industry representatives said achieving the administration’s goal will require that a lot of disparate efforts be successful at the same time, not all of which are under their control. For example, a nationwide network of charging stations and the increased capacity to meet new demand for power will be essential to driving customer demand.

“It’s aggressive, and a lot of pieces have to work perfectly together,” Genevieve Cullen, president of the Electric Drive Transportation Association, told VOA. “Aside from the technology piece, the market piece has to work, and supply chain speed is part of that. Consumer incentives are working to help bring them into the equation, and we need to keep expanding infrastructure at a pace that meets, and perhaps exceeds, the needs in the beginning so that people feel the confidence that they need to switch to battery electric.”

John Bozzella, president of the trade group Alliance for Automotive Innovation, said in a blog post Wednesday that the administration’s plan is “aggressive by any measure” and that its success would depend on more than just automakers being able to ramp up production.

“To some extent, the baseline policy framework for the transition has come into focus,” Bozzella said. “But it remains to be seen whether the refueling infrastructure incentives and supply-side provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, the bipartisan infrastructure law, and the CHIPS and Science Act are sufficient to support electrification at the levels envisioned by the proposed standards over the coming years.”
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U.S. consumer inflation eased in March, with less expensive gas and food providing some relief to households that have struggled under the weight of surging prices. Yet prices are still rising fast enough to keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates at least once more, beginning in May.

The government said Wednesday that consumer prices rose just 0.1% from February to March, down from 0.4% from January to February and the smallest increase since December.

Measured from a year earlier, prices were up just 5% in March, down sharply from February’s 6% year-over-year increase and the mildest such rise in nearly two years. Much of the drop resulted from price declines for such goods as gas, used cars and furniture, which had soared a year ago after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, though, so-called core inflation is still stubbornly high. Core prices rose 0.4% from February to March and 5.6% from a year earlier. The Fed and many private economists regard core prices as a better measure of underlying inflation. The year-over-year figure edged up for the first time in six months.

As goods prices have risen more slowly, helping cool inflation, costs in the nation’s services sector — everything from rents and restaurant meals to haircuts and auto insurance — have jumped, keeping core prices elevated.

“It’s comforting that headline inflation is coming down, but the inflation story has had some shifts under the hood in the last couple of years,” said Sonia Meskin, head of U.S. economics at BNY Mellon’s investment division. “Overall inflation still remains much too strong.”

Even so, the March data offered some signs that suggest inflation is slowly but steadily headed lower. Rental costs, which have been one of the main drivers of core inflation, rose at the slowest pace in a year. And grocery prices fell for the first time in 2 1/2 years.

Grocery prices dropped 0.3% from February to March. The cost of beef fell 0.3%, milk 1% and fresh fruits and vegetables 1.3%. Egg prices, which had soared after an outbreak of avian flu, plunged nearly 11% just in March, though they remain 36% more expensive than a year ago.

Despite last month’s decline, food costs are still up more than 8% in the past year. And restaurant prices, up 0.6% from February to March, have risen nearly 9% from a year ago.

Paul Saginaw, who owns Saginaw’s deli in Las Vegas, said nearly all the costs of a Reuben sandwich — his most popular — including corned beef, cheese and bread, have soared. He charges 10% more for a Reuben than he did 2 1/2 years ago, although he said “our costs have gone up a lot more” than that.

Saginaw is also paying more for paper goods and packaging, just as takeout and delivery orders have become a much bigger part of his business. One clamshell-style food container has jumped from 43 cents apiece to 98 cents.

“Everything we use has gone up,” he said.

Rich Pierson, a semi-retired owner of a financial planning business who was shopping this week at Doris Italian Market and Bakery in North Palm Beach, Florida, said high restaurant prices have led him and his wife to eat much more at home.

“We cook more at home than we ever have due to the rising costs,” he said. “You do look for the occasional deals and add value when you can — that’s for sure.”

Gas prices fell 4.6% just from February to March, a drop that partly reflected seasonal factors: Prices at the pump usually rise during spring. Gas costs have tumbled 17% over the past year.

Yet price increases in the service sector are keeping core inflation high, at least for now. That trend is widely expected to lead the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate for a 10th straight time when it meets in May.

Travel costs are still rising as Americans make up for lost vacation time during the pandemic. Airline fares rose 4% from February to March and are up nearly 18% in the past year. Hotel prices jumped 2.7% last month and are up 7.3% from a year ago.

Among the biggest drivers of inflation has been rental costs, which make up one-third of the government’s consumer price index. Rental costs rose 0.5% from February to March. Though still high, that was the smallest such increase in a year.

According to Wednesday’s government report, rents have risen by about 9% from a year ago. Yet Apartment List, which tracks real-time changes in new leases, shows rents rising at a 2.6% annual pace. As more apartments reset with those smaller increases, the government’s inflation data should show milder increases in coming months.

“It’s something that’s certainly coming, there has been some moderation in rents,” said Mark Vitner, chief economist at Piedmont Crescent Capital.

Fed officials have projected that after one additional quarter-point hike next month — which would raise their benchmark rate to about 5.1%, its highest point in 16 years — they will pause their hikes but leave their key rate unchanged through 2023. But officials have cautioned that they could raise rates further if they deem it necessary to curb inflation.

When the Fed tightens credit with the goal of cooling the economy and inflation, it typically leads to higher rates on mortgages, auto loans, credit card borrowing and many business loans. The risk is that ever-higher borrowing rates can weaken the economy so much as to cause a recession.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund, a 190-nation lending organization, warned that persistently high inflation around the world — and efforts by central banks, including the Fed, to fight it — would likely slow global growth this year and next.

There are other signs that inflation pressures are easing. The Fed’s year-long streak of rate hikes are also starting to cool a hot labor market, with recent data showing that companies are advertising fewer openings and that wage growth has been slowing from historically elevated levels.

A more worrisome trend is the possibility that banks will pull sharply back on lending to conserve funds, after two large banks collapsed last month, igniting turmoil in the United States and overseas. Many smaller banks have lost customer deposits to huge global banks that are perceived to be too big to fail. The loss of those deposits will likely mean that those banks will extend fewer loans to companies and individuals.

Some small businesses say they are already having trouble getting loans, according to a survey by the National Federation for Independent Business. The IMF said Tuesday that pullbacks in lending could slow growth by nearly a half-percentage point over the next 12 months.

A slowdown in the economy could cool inflation and as a result would help the Fed achieve its objectives. But the blow to the economy might prove larger than expected. Under the worst-case scenario, it could mean a full-blown recession with the loss of millions of jobs.

 
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Billionaire Elon Musk has told the BBC that running Twitter has been “quite painful” but that the social media company is now roughly breaking even after he acquired it late last year.

In an interview also streamed live late Tuesday on Twitter Spaces, Musk discussed his ownership of the online platform, including layoffs, misinformation and his work style.

“It’s not been boring. It’s quite a rollercoaster,” he told the U.K. broadcaster at Twitter’s San Francisco headquarters.

It was a rare chance for a mainstream news outlet to interview Musk, who also owns Tesla and SpaceX. After buying Twitter for $44 billion last year, Musk’s changes included eliminating the company’s communications department.

Reporters who email the company to seek comment now receive an auto-reply with a poop emoji.

The interview was sometimes tense, with Musk challenging the reporter to back up assertions about rising levels of hate speech on the platform. At other times, Musk laughed at his own jokes, mentioning more than once that he wasn’t the CEO but his dog Floki was.

He also revealed that he sometimes sleeps on a couch at Twitter’s San Francisco office.

Advertisers who had shunned the platform in the wake of Musk’s tumultuous acquisition have mostly returned, the billionaire said, without providing details.

Musk predicted that Twitter could become “cash flow positive” in the current quarter “if current trends continue.” Because Twitter is a private company, information about its finances can’t be verified.

After acquiring the platform, Musk carried out mass layoffs as part of cost-cutting efforts. He said Twitter’s workforce has been slashed to about 1,500 employees from about 8,000 previously, describing it as something that had to be done.

“It’s not fun at all,” Musk said. “The company’s going to go bankrupt if we don’t cut costs immediately. This is not a caring-uncaring situation. It’s like if the whole ship sinks, then nobody’s got a job.”

Asked if he regretted buying the company, he said it was something that “needed to be done.”

“The pain level of Twitter has been extremely high. This hasn’t been some sort of party,” Musk said.
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With Turkey in the grip of soaring food prices, the Islamic holy month of Ramadan offers respite for some with free meals offered to break the day of fasting. Analysts say inflation now poses the biggest threat to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s bid for reelection. Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul.
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