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Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don’t expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.

The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.

Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, “which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.

International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.

Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96.

The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.

One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.

“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.

Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.

Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.

One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.

“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,” said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry’s top lobbying group.

In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.” He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.

“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,” said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden’s policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden’s efforts to slow global climate change.

“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,” Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.

“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,” Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.” 

For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.

There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program.

If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.

Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.

Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil.

A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.

Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.

Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela.

“Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,” Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president’s decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.

“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,” Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.”

The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region.

“We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.
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China remains the single leading source of imports to Kenya, accounting for over 20% of total imports, according to the country’s bureau of statistics. Many local manufacturers say the Chinese imports are hurting their bottom line. Juma Majanga reports from Nairobi, Kenya. Camera: Jimmy Makhulo.
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In Cambodia’s capital of Phnom Penh, 62-year-old produce seller Sok Ul is sanguine, despite the threat that a Belt and Road project could uproot him from his neighborhood. Construction will soon begin on a $60 million bridge that spans two of the city’s bustling southern sections along the Tonle Sap river, and Sok Ul’s modest vegetable farm may need to go.

“I am happy to see a bridge to ease traffic congestion,” he said, speaking with VOA’s Khmer Service from his roadside stall, where he sells cabbages and other produce. If he’s forced to move, he just wants a fair deal for his land.

The debt debate

The bridge is among dozens of projects across the country being funded by China as loans under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI.

Prime Minister Hun Manet is leading a Cambodian delegation to join representatives from more than 150 countries in Beijing for a two-day forum to mark 10 years of China’s BRI on October 17 and 18. 

The initiative has invested billions of dollars globally, with many low-income Asian countries such as Cambodia seeing an outsized windfall, but BRI projects also account for a healthy chunk of Phnom Penh’s foreign debt.

The initiative is the central component of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s economic diplomacy as the communist party seeks to make China a global counterweight to the United States. 

The U.S., locked in a global rivalry with China, has warned countries against taking on large debts under China’s BRI infrastructure strategy. Some critics warn about a debt trap where China would gain economic and political leverage by lending more than what a country can pay. 

“The big risk arising from Cambodia’s engagement in the BRI is overreliance on Chinese investments and loans which might potentially induce Cambodia to fall into a debt trap,” say political scientists Vannarith Chheang and Heng Pheakdey in their 2021 paper “Cambodian Perspective on the Belt and Road Initiative.”

That, they warn, could result in “the loss of trust and autonomy as a sovereign state and the deterioration of its relations with other ASEAN member states.”

However, Jayant Menon, a former lead Asia Development Bank economist now at Singapore’s ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, came to a different conclusion in his March paper, “The Belt and Road Initiative in Cambodia: Costs and Benefits, Real and Perceived.”

“In the case of Cambodia, concerns over possible debt traps and debt diplomacy associated with the BRI appear to be misplaced, even after factoring in the effects of the pandemic,” he wrote.

While recognizing the short-term damage to local communities and the environment, Menon said the costs of BRI projects were more than justified.

“This infrastructure development has increased the competitiveness of the tradable goods sector, boosted exports and lowered prices to consumers and producers in Cambodia,” he wrote.

Hun Manet has also been optimistic about Chinese investments since taking the reins from his father in August.

“For Cambodia, BRI has provided many benefits to people, especially in the field of transportation and logistics,” he said while addressing the 26th ASEAN-China Summit in Jakarta, Indonesia in September.

Heated debate

BRI benefits and pitfalls have sparked heated debates in many BRI member countries.

“I acknowledge that China has helped build a lot of roads, but the quality is still limited,” Em Sovannara, a political science professor in Phnom Penh, told VOA Khmer. “Some roads are just built and then broken and need to be repaired.”

The BRI “has provided benefits to Cambodia, but it is not like what politicians brag about,” he said.

The Phnom Penh-based Future Forum estimates as of June 2021, China had built eight bridges and 3,287 kilometers (2,042 miles) of roads totaling more than $3 billion in Chinese concessional loans, which are loans with more favorable terms such as lower interest rates when compared to those available on the market.

Cambodia’s total foreign debt stands at almost $10 billion, 41% of which is owed to China, according to a bulletin from Cambodia’s Ministry of Economy and Finance in December.

China’s loans and investments have transformed the Cambodia skyline, with a major expressway from Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville, a sprawling special economic zone in Sihanoukville with an energy plant to power it, a new airport in Siem Reap and dozens of smaller projects. 

The projects have benefited the ruling Cambodian People’s Party, offering tangible proof that it is modernizing the country, Vannarith Chheang and Heng Pheakdey wrote.

“The BRI helps strengthen the material capabilities as well as the legitimacy of the regime in Cambodia, which has greatly benefited from the influx of Chinese investment capital and development assistance,” they wrote.

However, the Cambodian academics noted the economic benefits don’t always reach the population these projects are built for.

“Even though Chinese investment is bringing wealth to Cambodia, this wealth is mainly kept within Cambodia’s Chinese community. Chinese residents and visitors in Cambodia buy from Chinese businesses, eat at Chinese restaurants and stay in Chinese hotels. The trickle-down effect to local businesses is minimal,” they wrote.

People vs elites

Sihanoukville has become a symbol of the risks and rewards of Chinese investment. While development and construction have skyrocketed, crime and casinos are also on the rise. The rapid development has also pushed up property costs, forcing many residents and business owners to move outside the city.

“The BRI needs to take into account the ‘people’ rather than solely focusing on ‘elites’ if it is meant to achieve a meaningful impact in Cambodia,” Chhay Lim, a visiting fellow at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at the Royal University of Phnom Penh, wrote in an email to VOA Khmer.

He said the expected return on Chinese investment has been clear.

“We have observed that Cambodia has been offering support for key Chinese foreign agendas as well as the newly proposed narratives and slogan politics, including those of the Community of Shared Future, Global Security Initiative, Global Development Initiative, and Global Civilizational Initiative.”

Hun Manet visited Beijing last month to strengthen ties with China, picking up where his father Hun Sen left off. Hun Manet said Cambodia’s new government will maintain an “unchanged stance” on Beijing’s “One China” policy, and a “noninterference policy” toward China.

China’s leaders affirmed continued support for economic development and the improvement of people’s livelihoods in Cambodia through projects such as rural roads, bridges, water supplies, schools and hospitals, according to a joint statement out of the meeting.

China and the future

Menon said there was also evidence that China was becoming more mindful of the social and environmental impact of its projects, perhaps to correct for local pushback over the past decade.

Menon and Chhay Lim agreed Hun Manet’s government would be well advised to ensure that it does not become overly reliant on China in the years ahead.

“The increasing reliance on a single country for both its economic and noneconomic needs carry obvious risks,” Menon wrote. “As the China growth juggernaut starts to slow, diversifying trade and investment partners can spread risk by reducing vulnerability to country-specific shocks.”

That may not be an easy feat, given Phnom Penh’s strained relations with the West over its democratic backslide in recent years, said Chhay Lim.

“It’s significant to note that Cambodia must ensure diversification and avoid sole reliance on China while simultaneously enhancing relations with the West without antagonizing China,” he said. “To achieve this balance, Cambodia must formulate both a robust China strategy and a Western strategy, which, in my opinion, Cambodia has not yet fully developed.”

Sok Ul, the vegetable farmer in Phnom Penh, is confident that China will not pressure Cambodia to repay its debt.

“We can pay it back when we have it,” he said, adding his belief that Beijing will forgive Phnom Penh if his country cannot pay on time.
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